Friday: Colorado vs Houston Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The Friday night ESPN game features the Buffalos taking on the Cougars at 7:30 PM ET. SBR's Phil Wood takes a look at this Big 12 matchup in his Colorado vs Houston prediction:

ATS Pick: Houston -4.5 (-105 Caesars)

"The Cougars have dominated their first two games, but considering their opponents, it’s hard to know exactly what this team will look like against better competition. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes lost 27-20 to Georgia Tech in Week 1 and were outgained 463 to 305. And while they won by 24 in Week 2, the Buffaloes only outgained Delaware by two yards.

Colorado has forced three turnovers in each game, which has been a key reason for their success. But Conner Weigman only has seven interceptions in 17 career games, and the Cougars haven’t turned the ball over this season.

The Buffaloes can’t win without turnovers, and Weigman is experienced enough to avoid them."


Best Bet: Conner Weigman Over 191.5 passing yards (-111 Caesars)

"Colorado’s defense allowed Nick Minicucci to throw for 312 yards against them last week, so I love Weigman in this contest. Minicucci threw for 251 yards against Delaware State two weeks ago, but he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt against Colorado.

Because of the blowout nature of the first two Houston games, Weigman hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in a game. However, the Buffaloes are allowing 227.5 pass yards per game against mediocre competition, and they should provide opportunities for Weigman. Weigman has only thrown for 200 yards six times in his career, but considering this matchup, this total is undervaluing him."


Colorado vs Houston Best Odds:



Can the Buffs bounce back or are they in for a long season?

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Matt Jacob shares his best player prop bets for Colorado vs Houston:

Tanner Koziol Over 44.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"It doesn’t take a math degree to deduce that tight end Tanner Koziol has been by far the preferred target of Houston quarterback Conner Weigman in the early going. A 6-foot-7 senior, Koziol has corralled 13 of Weigman’s 30 completions. And he’s made the most of those receptions, racking up 63 and 52 yards in the Cougars’ wins over Stephen F. Austin and Rice.

Considering no other Houston player has caught more than five passes, I fully expect Koziol to serve as Weigman’s security blanket once again Friday night. And for the record, going back to his time with Ball State last year, Koziol has compiled at least 47 receiving yards in 10 of his last 12 contests."


Dean Connors Over 52.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"Colorado’s defensive front got absolutely steamrolled in the team’s season-opening home loss to Georgia Tech, giving up 320 rushing yards on 47 carries - an absurd 6.8 yards per tote. Granted, the Buffs were better last week, holding Delaware to 84 ground yards. But, well, it's Delaware!

So I don’t see Colorado holding down Houston running back Dean Connors, who rumbled for 132 yards (and two touchdowns) on just 13 carries last week against Rice (his former team). Connors, who is handling the bulk of the backfield workload in place of injured starter Re’Shaun Sanford II, has topped 52 rushing yards in four straight games against FBS opponents."


Sincere Brown to score anytime touchdown (+250 via FanDuel)

"Before last week, Colorado wideout Sincere Brown had played in 10 college football games. Total career receptions: one, and it came in his debut with South Florida in the 2020 season (yes, 2020). So it’s not hyperbole to state that Brown had a breakout performance Saturday against Delaware, hauling in four passes for 120 yards and a 71-yard touchdown.

Brown did his damage after Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders tapped Ryan Staub to replace starting quarterback Kaidon Salter. Staub shone (7-for-10, 159 yards, two TDs), and all signs point to the junior getting the starting nod at Houston. Given that Staub and Brown had an instant connection, I’m calling for the two to hook up for at least one score Friday night."