Friday: Kansas State vs Arizona Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The Week 3 Friday night game on Fox features a Big 12 battle of the Wildcats. SBR's Phil Wood breaks down the matchup in his Kansas State vs Arizona prediction:

Pick to Win: Kansas State Moneyline (-120 BetMGM)

"Last week, Kansas State lost the time of possession battle 40:29-19:31, and it still only lost by three. I expect them to have much more success against an Arizona offense that doesn’t match up favorably with a pass defense allowing just 176.7 passing yards per game.

Arizona has outscored its first two opponents 88-9.

However, against Hawaii, it only possessed the ball for 24:16, and Fifita was just 13/23 for 161 yards. Kansas State’s pass defense has not been the issue, and if it locks down Fifita, Arizona might not have an answer.

After all, Arizona is averaging 117 more passing yards than rushing yards per game."


Best Bet: Noah Fifita Under 249.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

"Fifita threw for 373 yards last week against Weber State, but his Week 1 performance against Hawaii has me concerned about his prospects this week. He completed just 56.5% of his passes in that game for 161 yards, and he averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt.

The stats for Kansas State’s pass defense are skewed due to Army only throwing 12 times for 93 yards last week. However, they only allowed 183 passing yards to Iowa State in Week 0 and 231 to Jerry Kaminski in a high-scoring Week 1 game.

Last season, Fifita threw for 268 yards against Kansas State, but he also threw 42 passes as his team trailed from start to finish. That’s only 6.4 yards per attempt."


Kansas State vs Arizona Odds:



Who do you have coming out on top? Post your pick below.

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Isaiah Sirois has 3 player prop bets ready for Kansas State vs Arizona:

Avery Johnson Under 40.5 rushing yards (-120 via Caesars)

"It’s been a shaky start to the season for K-State. The Wildcats were once favorites to win the Big 12, but after losses to Iowa State and Army – and a narrow win over FCS North Dakota State – it’s hard to see a path for them. Quarterback Avery Johnson has been a large part of the team’s struggles.

While Johnson’s passing efficiency has ticked up this year, it’s come at the expense of his rushing production. Johnson averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt a year ago. That’s now up to 7.8. However, he averaged 5.4 yards per rush and 46.5 rushing yards per game, which are now down to 4.3 and 26, respectively.

Johnson is rushing less (8.7 attempts per game down to six), which magnifies the significance of negative sack yardage that more passing plays can cause. Back him to stay Under 40.5 rushing yards for the third time this season against an Arizona defense that generated plenty of havoc versus Hawaii and FCS Weber State."


Noah Fifita Under 249.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM)

"Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita absolutely stomped FCS Weber State in his last time out. He threw for a whopping 373 yards! However, that performance came after a 161-yard showing versus Hawaii, an FBS opponent, which should be much more predictive of his output this season.

One big offseason departure has me worried about Fifita. He averaged 246.5 passing yards per game a year ago while throwing to star wideout Tetairoa McMillan, who is now in the NFL. No one on the roster has close to McMillan’s talent, and it showed in Week 1, with Fifita completing just 56.5% of his throws.

Sports betting sites should probably be hanging a lower number for Fifita this week, especially with Kansas State holding Iowa State’s Rocco Becht to 183 yards on 28 attempts in Week 0 and North Dakota’s Jerry Kaminski to 231 on 38 attempts in Week 1."


Jayce Brown Over 69.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"As wide receiver Jayce Brown goes, so goes the K-State offense. The talented slot wideout is averaging 72 yards per game this season on a total of 19 receptions, good for 6.3 per contest. As one of K-State’s returning talents in the receiver room, he has a leg up over most of his competition for chemistry with Johnson, which he has parlayed into some early success.

Brown didn’t see this kind of volume last year, as he averaged 3.6 receptions per game – but that was still good enough for him to average 63.3 receiving yards per game. With him now averaging 6.3 receptions per contest through three games, it’s easy to project him for an increase in receiving yardage – but not all betting apps appear as excited about his potential as others."