Monday: TCU vs North Carolina Predictions

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 4181

    #1
    Monday: TCU vs North Carolina Predictions
    The final game on the Week 1 slate features the Horned Frogs and the Tar Heels at 8:00 PM ET on Monday. SBR's Mike Spector breaks down the matchup in his TCU vs North Carolina predictions:

    TCU -3.5 (-110 BetMGM)

    "Only the second head coach to win a Super Bowl and then coach at the college level, nobody can doubt Belichick’s resume. But his influence on a roster that features 70 new players will take more time, which makes me wonder why the Horned Frogs are such a short betting favorite.

    TCU is a bona fide Big 12 contender after winning six of its final seven games last season. It has the edge at quarterback, with Hoover returning after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns.

    For UNC, signal caller Gio Lopez’s biggest strength is his legs, but his ability might be offset by a rebuilt offensive line that will need time to gel."


    Josh Hoover longest pass completion Over 42.5 yards (-115 bet365)

    "While Hoover should have the TCU offense humming early with his top receiver, Eric McAlister, back, he also has big-play threat and Idaho transfer, Jordan Dwyer, at his disposal. He topped 1,000 yards last season and added 12 touchdowns.

    I expect the Horned Frogs to take deep shots early and often with their vertical passing game against a Tar Heels defense that ranked outside the top 45 in passing defense success rate last season.

    While Hoover should have the TCU offense humming early with his top receiver, Eric McAlister, back, he also has big-play threat and Idaho transfer, Jordan Dwyer, at his disposal. He topped 1,000 yards last season and added 12 touchdowns.

    I expect the Horned Frogs to take deep shots early and often with their vertical passing game against a Tar Heels defense that ranked outside the top 45 in passing defense success rate last season.​"

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    Who are you taking tonight? Share your pick below.
  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 4181

    #2
    SBR's Isaiah Sirois has his best TCU vs North Carolina player prop bets ready to go:

    Davion Gause Under 68.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)

    "The TCU defense is solid, especially at the line of scrimmage. The Horned Frogs brought in former Washington State star Ansel Din-Mbuh and return four-star recruit Markis Deal, who emerged as a starter partway through the season. TCU ended the year ranked only 72nd in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4), but that includes the UCF game (54 carries, 289 yards) that Deal didn’t start.

    Those two in particular will create major issues for the UNC rushing attack. Omarion Hampton is gone, leaving sophmore Davion Gause to tote the rock. Gause averaged a solid 4.9 yards per rush attempt last year, but almost all of his production came against a shaky Charlotte defense.

    He averaged just 4.1 yards per rush attempt in UNC’s conference schedule and bowl loss to UConn."


    Josh Hoover Under 289.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

    "Bill Belichick is the big story of this game: can the Super Bowl-winning head coach turn UNC around? If he does, it’ll start with his specialty: defense. Considering the Tar Heels ranked 102nd last year in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1), he will have his work cut out for him, especially against a battle-tested quarterback like Josh Hoover.

    Hoover made major strides year-over-year last season, jumping from 220.6 passing yards per game in his first year as a starter (2023) to 303.8 yards per game last season. He may reproduce that against other teams, but I’m skeptical that he’ll deliver against Belichick and his son, Steve, who joined UNC's staff after a year as Washington's defensive coordinator.

    In that lone season, the Huskies ranked eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt (6). With a star-studded transfer class in the secondary, look for him to work his magic again in Chapel Hill.​"


    Jordan Dwyer Under 52.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ​

    "TCU added wide receiver Jordan Dwyer in the transfer portal after three years at Idaho. He impressed for the FCS team last season, racking up 1,192 yards on 78 receptions. However, he’ll now have to adjust to a new scheme, deal with a new quarterback, and start his TCU career against Belichick. Yikes.

    We really don’t know what to expect from Dwyer in this spot since we haven’t seen him play for the Horned Frogs yet. I emphasize year-over-year consistency when making college football player prop bets early in the season, and that means I expect Hoover to look to returning starter Eric McAlister early and often – at Dwyer’s expense.​"
    Comment
    • Fred The Hammer
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-13-13
      • 11590

      #3
      I took Hoover Over 280.5 (-115) Fanatics

      I cashed his passing yds most of the time last year, but he lost his top WR Becht. I think he'll figure it out tonight
      Comment
      • SBR Andy
        Administrator
        • 02-09-22
        • 4181

        #4
        Originally posted by Fred The Hammer
        I took Hoover Over 280.5 (-115) Fanatics

        I cashed his passing yds most of the time last year, but he lost his top WR Becht. I think he'll figure it out tonight
        Nice call, just snuck over.

        What a nightmare start for Bill and the Heels.
        Comment
        • JAKEPEAVY21
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 03-11-11
          • 29336

          #5
          Originally posted by SBR Andy

          Nice call, just snuck over.

          What a nightmare start for Bill and the Heels.
          Brutal debut...I guess the honeymoon period is over and the next few weeks should be telling.
          Comment
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