Stanford vs Hawaii Prediction

[SBR Andy]

The last game on the Week 0 slate has seen a lot of line movement. SBR's Brendan Schaeffer takes a look in his early Stanford vs Hawaii prediction.

Hawaii -2.5 (-108 DraftKings)

"While Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings see Stanford as the more competent team by a healthy margin, the road aspect when traveling to the island absolutely comes into play when analyzing a matchup like this one.

Hawaii was 6-1 against the spread in home games last season, demonstrating the inherent benefit against opponents traveling across several time zones. Stanford endured a gauntlet from a travel perspective with its ACC schedule last season, perhaps contributing to the Cardinal’s 2-4 ATS record in road games.

While Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot offensive philosophy hasn’t impressed in recent years for Hawaii, this year’s personnel could start with a bang against a Stanford defense that ranked 129th out of 134 FBS teams in pass defense a year ago.

For as long as this spread still sits below the key number of -3, we want to be aggressive on Hawaii as a four-star recommendation in our Stanford vs. Hawaii early predictions."


How are you betting this game? Share your pick below.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like it. Except that this guy's way too late to the window.

+2.5 would look much better. Big factor = ton of change at Stanford.
...QB and stud WR are gone. Reich may actually be just an interim HC. Can't see this going well.

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Rob Paul shares his Stanford vs Hawaii pick as part of his NCAAF spread picks for Week 0:

Hawaii -2 (-110 Caesars)

"This is Timmy Chang's shot to prove why Hawaii brought him home to clean up Todd Graham's mess. The Rainbow Warriors look poised to break through and become bowl-eligible. But first they need to take care of business against a rocky Stanford squad that had Andrew Luck fire Troy Taylor and bring in Frank Reich in March following an investigation into the former's conduct.

That change led to a mass exodus, which is why Stanford is set to start sixth-year QB Ben Gulbranson, the former Oregon State backup. Given the circumstances around the Cardinal's situation, and the fact they're traveling to Honolulu, the Rainbow Warriors are set to pull off a season-opening win. The public has been all over Hawaii, too, after Stanford opened as a 2.5-point favorite.

Though Hawaii isn't a world beater, it does boast enough offense to create mismatches against a Stanford defense that's No. 92 in SP+. Rainbow Warrior QB Micah Alejado showed flashes in the run-and-shoot offense during limited time last year, and he's throwing to two of the Mountain West's best receivers in Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle.

There's just too much working against Stanford for it to win."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Mike Spector isn't buying the line move and likes the Cardinal:

Stanford ML (+114 Pinnacle)

"Stanford ranks 26th in the country and third in the ACC with 64% of its roster returning. The most production comes back on defense (73%), including 15 of 20 players who played 150-plus snaps."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Gabe Henderson highlights some Stanford vs Hawaii betting notes as part of his Week 0 CFB betting trends:

- Stanford was 9-14-1 ATS overall under Troy Taylor, covering in just two of its last seven away from home
- The Cardinal's interim, Frank Reich, finished with an ATS record of 40-44-4 in the NFL
- Hawaii has gone 23-12 to the Under in its last 35 games
- The Rainbow Warriors have covered the spread in their last eight contests at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Hawaii is 0-4 SU all-time against Stanford, with all four games being played in Honolulu

Prediction: Under 51 (-110 Caesars)

"I like Hawaii in this spot, but it's hard to ignore the black mark on their program's resume that is its history against Stanford. The Rainbow Warriors have also looked directionless in recent years. Further, we have yet to see how Frank Reich's coaching style translates to the college game.

I'm going to play it safe and lean Under 51 points. Hawaii is 23-15 to the Under during Timmy Chang's three-year tenure thus far, and 51 points is a lot to ask of two oft-inconstent offenses."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey, Andy. I see this betting trend every year during July/August:

*Bettors wait FOREVER to get down on a game.
...Long after the previews come out, guys figure out a good side.
...And they take the short-price after the # has moved.

I'll say that EITHER side that's holding +2.5 will play well. Should be a close game.

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Rob Paul shares his best Stanford vs Hawaii player prop:

Nick Cenacle Over 68.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

"This might be the year Hawaii finally gets back on track, and if it does, it will be because of the Rainbow Warriors' run-and-shoot passing attack being led by freshman Micah Alejado. If Alejado takes the leap, one of the biggest beneficiaries will be Nick Cenacle.

The Montreal native was recently ranked the No. 4 prospect in the CFL draft by the CFL Scouting Bureau after a breakout campaign last year that saw him go Over 68.5 receiving yards in each of his final four games. With Stanford in chaos heading into the season with Frank Reich as interim head coach, the Cardinal could be in trouble against this passing game when they visit Honolulu.

Stanford ranks No. 92 in SP+ on defense and was No. 120 in EPA per pass on defense last season, and it lost its most impactful defender, David Bailey, to Texas Tech in the transfer portal. Expect Cenacle to have plenty of opportunities to hit this Over."