9 Teams that can win the College Football Playoff

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 4793

    #1
    9 Teams that can win the College Football Playoff
    College football is fast approaching and SBR's Rob Paul dives into the CFP National Championship odds to narrow it down to 9 potential champions.

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    Why only 9 teams?
    - Preseason odds cutoff
    - The blue-chip ratio threshold
    - Big Ten, SEC, or Clemson

    Ohio State (+500 bet365)

    "The reigning national champions have plenty to replace, including both coordinators, but they also return arguably the two best players in college football in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs. Between Ryan Day's recruiting and use of the transfer portal, the Buckeyes look fierce again as former five-star Julian Sayin takes over at QB. Ohio State opens the season against Texas, so it won't be long before we know how real its chances are of repeating."

    Texas (+550 DraftKings)

    "No team has more buzz right now than Texas because of the last name of their new starting QB. While Arch Manning was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class, he saw extended playing time last season against only three teams, all ranked 98th or worse on defense by SP+. Still, he leads the 2026 NFL Draft odds for a reason and is surrounded by a deep roster led by budding stars like Anthony Hill Jr., Colin Simmons, Ryan Wingo, and Quintrevion Wisner. Week 1 in Columbus will be fun."

    Georgia (+800 BetRivers)

    "It was a "down year" for Kirby Smart's program last season when it won just 11 games and beat Texas in the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs winning the conference and pushing for a title this year will come down to Gunner Stockton, who officially takes over as QB1 after Carson Beck left for Miami. Luckily, Smart never stops crootin' and even added some help via the transfer portal. Players like Nate Frazier, CJ Allen, Christen Miller, and Daylen Everette give Georgia a strong foundation."

    Penn State (+800 FanDuel)

    "Will this finally be the year James Franklin puts a smile on everyone in Happy Valley's face? Penn State certainly has the talent to compete for the Big Ten title and potentially win it all. The Nittany Lions return QB Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, offensive linemen Drew Shelton and Olaivavega Ioane, defensive linemen Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant, and cornerback A.J. Harris. This roster is one of the best on paper and has addressed its wide receiver issue via the portal."

    Oregon (+1200 BetRivers)

    "The Blue-Chip Ratio doesn't take into account transfers, but Dan Lanning has bolstered Oregon's blue-chip-filled roster by adding some of the top talents in the portal. This season, the team added running back Makhi Hughes, safety Dillon Theieneman, and offensive lineman Isaiah World, just to name a few of the star-studded additions. They join a roster relying on QB Dante Moore, linebacker Bryce Boettcher, pass rusher Matayo Uiagalelei, and tight end Kenyon Sadiq to carry the load. The emergence of five-star freshman Dakorien Moore could make or break the Ducks with Evan Stewart's injury."

    Alabama (+1300 FanDuel)

    "Talent-wise, thanks to a roster built by Nick Saban, this is still clearly a national title contender. But Year 1 of Kalen DeBoer left a lot to be desired. So it's hard to have too much faith in the Crimson Tide's ability to win a title this season, though Ryan Grubb reuniting with DeBoer should help. Ty Simpson takes over as the QB. This receiver room, led by Ryan Williams, and the O-line, led by Kadyn Proctor, could be two of the best units in the SEC. Plus, LT Overton highlights what should be a strong defense."

    Clemson (+1400 FanDuel)

    "The only non-Big Ten/SEC team that's eligible for this list, this looks like Dabo Swinney's best Clemson team in years. The Tigers lead the country in returning production and have a Heisman-caliber QB in Cade Klubnik, who had the most big-time throws last season among returning P4 passers. And, like all of Swinney's best teams at Clemson, the Tigers are loaded at wide receiver (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., T.J. Moore) and on the defensive line (T.J. Parker, Peter Woods). Between its reasonable odds and talent on both sides, Clemson is my favorite bet to win it all."

    LSU (+1800 DraftKings)

    "Much like Clemson and Penn State, LSU brings many of its key cogs back, including Garrett Nussmeier, Aaron Anderson, Caden Durham, White Weeks, and Harold Perkins Jr. Brian Kelly also went big game hunting in the transfer portal and put together the No. 1 class in the country. Additions like Nic Anderson and Barion Brown on offense and Patrick Payton and Mansoor Delane on defense could push this team to a College Football Playoff berth. Betting on the Tigers comes down to how much you trust Kelly."

    Michigan (+4000 BetRivers)

    "The championship hangover has passed as the second season under Sherrone Moore in Ann Arbor is set to get underway. Thanks to the deep pockets of Larry Ellison, Michigan brings in the No. 1 recruit in the country in QB Bryce Underwood, who will likely start sooner than later as a freshman. The Wolverines also added running back Justice Haynes, defensive lineman Tre Williams, and safety TJ Metcalf via the portal. Michigan should be better this season, but not a title contender."


    Who is your pick to win the National Championship this year? Share your predictions below!
    ​​
  • JAKEPEAVY21
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 03-11-11
    • 29401

    #2
    Looking at all of those prices, Alabama +1200 is the one I'd ride with. I feel like they are being slept on after last season and that looks to be pretty good value.

    It's also the 2nd year under Debour and he has Grubb as the OC this year, along with a lot of returning starters. They must get production from a young QB which is the thing that worries me.
    Comment
    • craigpb
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 06-19-08
      • 712

      #3
      If Texas makes the cut, ND should too. At very least ND have the better staff. Lots of inexperienced QBs so looks pretty wide open, at the moment.
      Comment
      • SBR Andy
        Administrator
        • 02-09-22
        • 4793

        #4
        CFP National Championship longshot predictions from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

        Michigan (+3000 bet365)

        "Jamelle Holieway and Trevor Lawrence are the only two true freshman quarterbacks to lead their programs to the promised land as full-time starters. The hope around Ann Arbor is that Bryce Underwood can join that elite list en route to making history this season.

        He joins a Michigan team that's coming into 2025 with high hopes. The Wolverines capped off a disappointing title defense with three consecutive wins, including statement victories over Alabama and Ohio State. Add a five-star signal-caller to the mix and the sky is the limit.

        Michigan's true ceiling will be dictated by Underwood's development as the season progresses.

        However, if the true freshman can limit mistakes early, there's enough talent around him to win football games without stellar quarterback play. This includes two phenomenal running backs, Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes, running behind an experienced offensive line that returns three starters.

        If the Wolverines can pass road tests at Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, and Michigan State, an all-important rivalry clash with the Buckeyes could decide their postseason fate. Considering Michigan has won four straight against Ohio State, there's little justification as to why the Wolverines' odds are this long."


        Florida (+4500 FanDuel)

        "Florida has one of the toughest schedules in the country for the upcoming campaign. The Gators have seven preseason AP Top 25 teams on their schedule, including four (Georgia, LSU, Miami, and Texas) from the top 10. Not difficult enough? Five of those games will be played either away or at a neutral venue.

        However, if Billy Napier's men continue to improve upon their performance from last year, they can rack up an impressive resume. It all starts with DJ Lagway, who was one of the most electric freshmen in the country in 2024.​

        Full transparency, I placed my Heisman Trophy future on Lagway as soon as the market opened. In other words, I love the leader of Florida's talented offense heading into his sophomore season in Gainesville.

        The dynamic duo of Lagway and Jadan Baugh is enough to get excited about the Gators heading into the season. Their defense appears to be ferocious, as well, as Ron Roberts returns five starters from a unit that surrendered 17 points or fewer in each of its last four games in 2024.

        While Florida's schedule is incredibly difficult, it also gives the Gators some room for error if they can pick up a couple of signature wins along the way. If there's a surprise candidate that emerges in the SEC, it could be Napier's men, so long as Lagway stays healthy. They're worth a flier at +4500 betting odds at FanDuel.​"


        Arizona State (+15000 ESPN BET)

        "If you think Arizona State was a fluke inclusion in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, think again. The Sun Devils are here to stay under Kenny Dillingham, as the third-year coach has set the foundation for another fairy tale run in 2025-26.

        Perhaps most importantly, Arizona State brings back quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was sensational down the stretch. The Sun Devils also return nine starters from an underrated defense to go with four big men in the offensive trenches. As long as those building blocks are in place, the skill positions will sort themselves out.

        Running back Kanye Udoh, an Army transfer, is one to watch as Dillingham looks to fill Cam Skattebo's shoes, as well.

        It's difficult to wrap my head around a Big 12 championship odds favorite getting such long odds after making a playoff appearance last season. Arizona State faces an uphill battle to win the national title, but as a team with a great chance to be in the final 12-team field, there's no better value on the oddsboard.

        This is perhaps the most disrespectful line posted at the best sportsbooks. If Dillingham's men can grow off the back of last year's performance, +15000 odds look like highway robbery. This is a $1,500 flier worth taking at ESPN BET.​"
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