I will be preparing my write up and i will post it along with my play late tonight.
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Citi BCS National Championship
Texas Longhorns (13-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0)
FINALLY, after 33 bowl games we have reached the most awaited game this bowl season, The National Championship Game. Alabama, the SEC power this year enters this game off a drubbing of the vaunted Florida Gators 32-13 in the SEC Championship game. Texas, on the other hand needed the replay booth to put 1 second back on the clock for a game winning field goal to barely slip past the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who cant spell offense, 13-12.
On paper this game appears to be a total mismatch and some might say this game will be won by Alabama in a total romp. The Crimson Tide pushed aside Va Tech, Ole' Miss, LSU and Florida this season while Texas Squeaked out victories versus Oklahoma (Without Bradford and Gresham), Oklahoma State and a Nebraska team who couldnt score 14 points if you gave them 15.
"NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND". The Longhorns have 1 player, the signal caller, who might have something to say about this game before its all said and done. This just might be the game in which Mr. McCoy goes from "Great" quarterback to "Legend". He will be the key to the game for Texas. If Colt can keep plays alive and get the ball out of his hands and avoid negative plays then Texas has a great chance of keeping this game within arms reach. If he can't and Alabama can run the ball early setting up the play action pass it could be a very long night for the Longhorns.
Alot of people might say Texas will have a extremely hard time running the football in this game as Alabama's defense allowed opponents 78YPG rushing this season. What those individuals don't understand is Texas really doesn't care about running the football and i think they would be perfectly happy if they can average 3-4 yards per rush. Texas runs the ball to set up Colt and his ability to either run or to use his great vision and make big plays down the field. So, as far as the Longhorns are concerned if they are going to stay in this game they are going to have to rely greatly on Colt McCoy to deliver some big plays down the field with his legs and his arm.
Alabama also doesn't just rely on the running game to score points as was evident in the SEC Championship game. Against Florida, Alabama didnt run the ball to set up the pass they conversely used the play action pass to set up the run. The Texas Defensive Coordinator brings into this game a Longhorn defense who was stout against the run this year allowing 62 YPG. BUT, remember that was primarily in a "Pass First" Big 12 Conference with teams who ran the ball in a spread type offense. I expect the Tide to run the ball close to their season average which will allow Greg McElroy to make some plays down the field to Julio Jones who is a excellent playmaker and is most likely the best player on the field.
This game has two great teams with two great and experienced coaches walking the sidelines. I believe Colt McCoy will live up to his billing and put up outstanding numbers in this matchup and Alabama will do the same.
So based on this information some might think Alabama would be the correct play. On the other hand their might be others who think that Texas would be the correct play. If you are curious as to which side I think the correct play is the answer is simply "Neither". I don't see any distinct advantage with either Texas or Alabama which would convince me to wager on either side in this matchup, no matter how many times i play out different outcomes in my head.
MY PLAY:
Alabama will use the run and play action pass effectively against Texas as they did in tearing apart the Gator defense just a few weeks ago. I also expect Texas to run the ball just enough to allow Colt McCoy to utilize his outstanding quarterback skills to run and pass down the field against the cornerbacks of Alabama. To make a long story short this will not be a 17-10 defensive battle. I believe this will be an outstanding game with two outstanding teams giving us, the fans, a great show. To me the definition of a "Great Show" is POINTS SCORED!
Texas/Alabama OVER 45
(If you are doing something like this
it's because your book has a higher total than 45. We all know we can't get the same line due to the continuous line movements, especially on game day. I wont give any advice on what total to play except what i posted. If you are that concerned that your book has the total higher by a point or so than buy it down if you can. If you can't buy it down than use your best judgement.)
Good Luck and enjoy the game.
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i like the over as well...unless the Guru says otherwiseComment -
special teams..
wow, I thought you would have a pick.. it seems that with an even match like this that maybe special teams will be the decider. You have Arenas and Shipley doing the work, which I lean towards Arenas for the upper hand. One of these two are going to be impressive in this match. It is very hard for me to go against a QB who has gone 25-1 in the last 2 years and has experience with a total of 52 games under his hat. One thing we can say is when McCoy loses Alabama wagers might be happy that he loses by more than 4 points. Losses by 17, 3, 5, 20, 7, 8, and 6. I have always have found it interesting that Heisman Trophy winners never show up in their bowl games to win. They have lost 7 out 0f 10 and 5 out of the last 6. It's not really a stat to go on but if you are won of those guys that believes in the jinx then you might go with Texas. However, the other jinx is the madden game, which for the first time their were twp players(Fitzgerald and Polamalu). So only one of them got hurt so no dice there. There has been so many theories on what is going to happen it is not wise for me to unload on it. I will wait for half time wagers to see what is out there. However, I do have action since I took the 10 pt special teaser with Bosie, Iowa, and now Texas. If they win I know I will be like I could have done that on a su parley. I have to be happy with a winning ticket instead of a losing one. GL with your picks dont feel like you need to get rich right now and lose your wad for we still have a great weekend of NFL. Thanks HHComment -
That is not a bad wager snaps, especially if this game is close going into the 4th quarter. There has been very little movement on the total. I think that Alabama will not play up to the level that they played against Florida, nor will Texas play down to the level that they played against Nebraska. Having seen players from both teams, it is my opinion that 'Bama is a lot more up tight about this game than Texas is, so I expect Texas to score some points. The Texas defense gave up 59 points against Kansas and A&M, so it is not like they can not be scored upon. And you are right, the line will fluctuate depending on the book. In Vegas, it is basically 45-46, with a few 45.5's sprinkled in.
One thing Sanps. You really should check your stats before posting. You said that Texas "squeaked" out a victory against Oklahoma State. 41-14 on the road is not "squeaking" out a victory. Also remember that Alabama did not exactly trample Tennessee, needing a blocked FG to win that game, or Auburn. The game on paper is closer than you indicated. But again, I like your reasoning for your over selection, though I am not going to play it. My personal total is 4. The number of cocktails I have at Santa Anita before driving to the Rose Bowl, some 20 minutes, and 200 cops away.Comment -
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I used the word queaked with the win over State because Oklahoma State out performed the Longhorns in every category except for the tourovers where the Cowboys had 5. The longhorns were out rushed in that game 134-99 and State held the ball for almost 8 minutes more than Texas. Texas scored 28 points off Oklahoma State tournovers. 41-17 wasn't necessarily squeaking out a win but my point was State played them tough and could have stolen a win without 5 tournovers.Comment -
[quote=BigdaddyQH;2895887]That is not a bad wager snaps, especially if this game is close going into the 4th quarter. There has been very little movement on the total. I think that Alabama will not play up to the level that they played against Florida, nor will Texas play down to the level that they played against Nebraska. Having seen players from both teams, it is my opinion that 'Bama is a lot more up tight about this game than Texas is, so I expect Texas to score some points. The Texas defense gave up 59 points against Kansas and A&M, so it is not like they can not be scored upon. And you are right, the line will fluctuate depending on the book. In Vegas, it is basically 45-46, with a few 45.5's sprinkled in.
One thing Sanps. You really should check your stats before posting. You said that Texas "squeaked" out a victory against Oklahoma State. 41-14 on the road is not "squeaking" out a victory. Also remember that Alabama did not exactly trample Tennessee, needing a blocked FG to win that game, or Auburn. The game on paper is closer than you indicated. But again, I like your reasoning for your over selection, though I am not going to play it. My personal total is 4. The number of cocktails I have at Santa Anita before driving to the Rose Bowl, some 20 minutes, and 200 cops away.[/quote]
Have a good time. Sounds fun thats a great racetrack.Comment -
Alabama did have some close wins also, some nailbiters thus a small part of my reasoning for not playing a side. I feel the best play is the OVER.Comment -
This isnt a huge play for me tonight. Its a good size play but not my biggest. My biggest 2 plays this bowl season were Connecticut ML and Iowa/Georgia Tech UNDER. I'm not going to be someone who lays money down on a ML with a dog just to get paid 50 cents on the dollar more. Each side has a ton of favorable stats and information to make you play either side thus my TOTAL wager.Comment -
But that is football. Texas took advantage of every opportunity they got. That game was over by halftime. It was 24-7 at the half, and 41-7 at the end of 3 quarters. Still, your over play for tonite seems to be about as good as any. This bowl season was dragged out way too far. December 19th until January 7th. Rediculous. Starting tomorrow, I start posting what to look for in the 2010 season. I figure there will be about 3 posters in here, after you discount the guys who will win today and bag about it tomorow. I see a lot of that in here. I guess that guys lose so much, they have to act like they have not been there when they win.Comment -
Some friends from Alabama got me a ticket to the game, so I am taking them to the track before the game starts. I have a couple of horses (that I co-own) going today. One of them is bound to win once.Comment -
Take the OVER and you will be a happy camper!
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alabama here is the playComment -
nice writeup schaap the key is colt mccoy but u know how i get down ROLL TIDE im gonna take bama and ur over pick thanxs broComment -
bama all the wayComment -
Dont over think this, Bama is a better team and they will win.Comment -
BAMA AND OVER
Texas played a much weaker schedule so the rankings in defense & offense are skewed (should not be rated as high)
Texas is a one dimensional team (passing) Bama can RUN but their passing attack is extremely dangerous
Bama after getting humilated by the Utes last year will not be out partying and thinking they are a slam dunk to win
Still see the Gator game (BAMA PUTS UP 32) in my mind now the picture gets more clear when I see the Texas / Nebraska game in Focus ....confirms my 1 st thought "WEAKER CONFERENCE" especially after seeing Nebraska and Okl State Mizzou get waxed...............Comment -
Be carefull with Alabama. They are 0-7 L7 versus the Horns, not that it means a whole lot but they are winnless against texas.Comment -
oh okComment -
oh u know ROLL TIDE ROLLComment -
Sweet home alabama !!!!!! -6Comment -
Be carefull with the Tide. In my opinion, AGAIN, the total is the way to go in this game. Good Luck!Comment -
If interested i posted a NFL thread for the playoffs and super bowl if interested. Feel free to stop in and give your plays and opinions.Comment -
Read what you quoted Mmike. I said it doesnt mean much but thanks for your research.Comment -
Anyone who likes the under let me know here and maybe we can have a friendly wager for SBR points..just to make it more fun.
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