I am a rookie capper. In doing my research I try to factor all the info at my disposal. When I have a play or a lean for team A and they are 4 or 5 points higher on the saragin rankings is that strong....How does it compare to strength of schedule.....Any info would be greatly appreciated...
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Never used them.
Only the eye test, and raw data for me.Comment -
I start everything in college football with Sargin's. Simply subtracting the difference is how I start things out. Obviously there are other numbers I throw in but the base is Sargin's.
I don't know everything that goes into creating those ratings but I can attest to the success of using it.
When I first started out I used just the Sargin ratings. I had some success with that but it was too iffy. I didn't start showing consistant winners until I started adding other factors to go with it. You have to devise a home variance for starters. also that variance should be a sliding scale as some teams have a larger advantage at home than others. You have to devise numbers based on common opponents as well since that is the true measure of teams. Simply using season numbers can be severely skewed both for and against teams based on non-conference games.
Now for bowl games it gets even more complex. In many instances you will have tea,s playing one another that have no common opponents, play in obviously different conferences and really strong teams playing lesser teams. In bowl situations you need to devise a motivation factor. Some of these teams are just happy to be there while others are trying to seriously influence potential recruits. Also the bowl game itself has a certain ranking among motivation.
Sargin's and college basketball. I use Sargin's as my base here as well. Stands to reason since I am using my same program with minor differences. I haven't yet seen the football type results but then I don't yet have conference play to factor in. Once conference play begins and I get a good foundation for common opponents I think results will certainly improve.
In summary which would have saved a lot of time here, I totally think Sargin's is a great aide in capping games. Sargin's alone not so much but when applied in conjunction with other factors it can create a projected line and enable you to compare to actual lines to find weaknesses.Comment -
Wal, and HOUL, thanks for the input.......Comment -
When using Sagarin take the ratings and add 3 points for home field advantage. I look at predictor as it is purely on points (which gambling is based on). It's good info at your disposal but nothing beats the eye test like Houlihan mentioned.
You asked about a 4 or 5 point favorite and is that a good spread, well it all depends on what teams your betting. Example, let's use UF versus Cinci.
UF - 93.58
Cinci - 88.21
= 5.37 point difference.
Let's say we added 3 points for UF having home field advantage (While I think UF will have more fans there will be a lot of neutral fans that will root for Cinci because they want UF to lose) So I would probably only add 1 point for UF field advantage. So the difference is only about 6.37 points, while the point spread is -11. Based on Sagarin, Cinci looks like a good bet...
BUT Sagarin can't tell you if a bunch of players are going to be out of the next game like Michigan State who suspended several guys. Neither can Sagarin tell you that Cinci HC Kelly just took a job at ND. Nor does it know that UF DC Strong took a job at Louisville. So there's much more to the game then just Sagarin.
If you use the Predictor
UF - 92.78
Cinci - 84.56
= 8.22 Which I think is more in line then the 5.37 based on rating...
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No one is at home in a bowl game, unless you're literally playing in your stadium. I would not factor in a full 3.19 pts like capping a reg season game just because they're playing in the same state. HF adv goes way beyond having majority of fans. It's not traveling, not sleeping in a hotel all week. Being familiar & comfortable in your surroundings, just like you & I are in our own home & town. When it comes to bowls BOTH teams are strangers in a strange land I don't care if it's 500 miles or 5,000 miles away. I would probably give a 1 pt adv to a bowl team like UNC playing in state, friendlier crowd is all that means. But alot of times this could be worse leading up to the game. Think about it. In state rivals are the worst. So a team is playing in state, but they are staying a week in a town where the townpeople are very hostile towards them; around town, the stadium & campus, restaurants, & especially hotel staff.Comment -
^^^ Very much agreed. I actually think that playing in your back yard is a huge distraction. You have to contend with family and friends who are vying for your time and tickets. Your girlfriend who wants to spend time with you during the holidays, etc. You have to see the same old buildings and you feel the same boring emotions. Contrast that with another team that visits a new city and they are excited, they are there with just the team so theirs great team bonding and they are genuinely excited about being there. A lot of different dynamics and emotions in bowls. Hard to figure who will come in fired up.Comment -
Mac, thanks for the advice and time....Comment -
Thanks for taking time to repond to my questionComment
