Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

**RITZ** · 12-23-09, 09:16 PM

Call yourself out for being too slow to pick\k up the change 4 days ahead of the game. How much more time do you need to adjust?

**jackpot269** · 12-23-09, 09:31 PM

[quote=snapstick;2804921]i really didnt think that starting this post would require me to defend the post with every other comment. Unreal. I will not repspond to idiots any further. Gl everyone and whoever is on these plays your comments are welcome....others....start another post. Unfortunately.....every post draws the degenerates who have nothing else to do but spread stupid comments.[/quote

Ive read thru most of the 7 pages and think you have been very logical and been sound on your comments, thats not to say I agree with all but I think you've done a great job here thanks for your work on this. I like looking at several different angles on games someone else may see something that I or you or whoever may miss and we still don't have to agree but we can be respectful of others opinions!! IMO
Thanks again, cause I think all of us are smarter than any one of us !!!!!!!!
Minus the idiots

**DanOmaha** · 12-23-09, 10:22 PM

Cal looks like shit tonight

(This is not a critique of the system, just an observation that Cal and Oregot St didn't show up to these games)

Edit...well, maybe not - come on boys, you need to cover.

**waco66** · 12-24-09, 12:56 AM

the system is still 2-2 with about 7-8 games to go. going to be fun

. gl with the rest. people need to settle down and relax. its almost christmas!

**Wheell** · 12-24-09, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by waco66

the system is still 2-2 with about 7-8 games to go. going to be fun

. gl with the rest. people need to settle down and relax. its almost christmas!

1-3. In any event, 4 games proves nothing.

**Handicapme** · 12-24-09, 01:35 AM

this thread is lol

**IrishTim** · 12-24-09, 01:40 AM

Reversion to the mean...

**THE PROFIT** · 12-24-09, 02:43 AM

2-2, having my doubts about miami too. The best capper in the world calling for a 10pt Wisky victory

**Formulawiz** · 12-24-09, 06:46 AM

People I have followed this system for 3 years now and I can assure you, its been excellent. It is also important to note that there is NOT a large sample of games over the past 3 years just to rely on the Sagarin system alone. Luck may play a large part here.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-24-09, 09:47 AM

So what are you trying to say? That luck is ivolved with this system? Can you show me one game so far this post season that has been decided by luck? I do not think so.

**Formulawiz** · 12-24-09, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

So what are you trying to say? That luck is ivolved with this system? Can you show me one game so far this post season that has been decided by luck? I do not think so.

If your familiar with technical or situational analysis you need a large sample size to make any sense. 50 games over the past 3 years using the Sagarin system is nothing and yes luck does come into play. Secondly what I am saying is that you should always utilize numerous handicapping systems to make an intelligent selection rather then blindly rely on a single system approach. That being said I hope this sytem works for us all but I can assure you, it is always better to do research or your asking for disaster.
Anyway GL

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-24-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

If you know anything about technical or situational analysis you need a large sample size to make any sense. 50 games over the past 3 years using the Sagarin system is nothing and yes luck does come into play. Secondly what I am saying is that you should always utilize as many handicapping systems as you have available rather then rely on a single system approach. Your asking for disaster.
Anyway GL

No argument with that. What I am saying is that luck had no part in any of the games that have been played so far. I totally agree that the system is too new to use exclusively. People who depended on that system this year have not fared well so far. You can use it as a tool in your overall handicapping system, but nothing more. As I posted yesterday, Utah's determination to show the PAC 10 that they belong in that conference far outweighed Sagarin's system. I said the same thing about BYU. I was right in both cases. In bowl games, the MOST important thing is the intangables. You have to be able to spot them and give them the correct values.

**Formulawiz** · 12-24-09, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

No argument with that. What I am saying is that luck had no part in any of the games that have been played so far. I totally agree that the system is too new to use exclusively. People who depended on that system this year have not fared well so far. You can use it as a tool in your overall handicapping system, but nothing more. As I posted yesterday, Utah's determination to show the PAC 10 that they belong in that conference far outweighed Sagarin's system. I said the same thing about BYU. I was right in both cases. In bowl games, the MOST important thing is the intangables. You have to be able to spot them and give them the correct values.

Bigdaddy I am not saying that there is luck involved in which team wins the game, I am saying theres luck when someone makes a play solely using this system.

**tblues2005** · 12-24-09, 12:44 PM

Factors have a lot to say about it also.

**jakeandba** · 12-24-09, 02:42 PM

Hey BigDaddy:

I would agree with your post regarding luck. If you really want to be technical, Cal got lucky to score their first 14 or Utah team was able to overcome and just took it to Cal.

While losing is part of the game that we play, can see how it is easy to lose sight of the overall object. The object is to make money with a winning record. No every year will a system hit a huge win percent margin...

**IrishTim** · 12-24-09, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

No argument with that. What I am saying is that luck had no part in any of the games that have been played so far. I totally agree that the system is too new to use exclusively. People who depended on that system this year have not fared well so far. You can use it as a tool in your overall handicapping system, but nothing more. As I posted yesterday, Utah's determination to show the PAC 10 that they belong in that conference far outweighed Sagarin's system. I said the same thing about BYU. I was right in both cases. In bowl games, the MOST important thing is the intangables. You have to be able to spot them and give them the correct values.

Hey BDQH, agree with a lot of what you said but have trouble quantifying the intangible factors you bring up, such as let down spot, "not happy to be there", etc. As you may know, I handicap by making my own spreads as a I believe you do, but for the most part I either ignore this angle or give it 1-2 points on my spreads (such as I did with SMU tonight with their excitement to be in a bowl game after the "death penalty"). Curious to hear your thoughts.

**IrishTim** · 12-25-09, 02:29 AM

To others who are losing with this "system" (1-4 if you played the originally listed games, as I'm sure many did), you can't say we didn't try to warn you. Playing this system is no different than coin flipping long-term.

**tblues2005** · 12-25-09, 03:25 AM

Irish Tim I agree with you some. I think that it should have been posted later when it was the right time. I like some of these. The Air Force and TCU play looks really good considering how tough that conference has been in the bowl games so far. I say it depends on the play that it comes up with. I sure like a few but several others have turned out terrible picks. It is worth a try since it did well last season.

**ChuteBoxe** · 12-25-09, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

2-2, having my doubts about miami too. The best capper in the world calling for a 10pt Wisky victory

Who?

**Skidcom** · 12-25-09, 10:47 AM

I still believe...although had to go against Nevada after all of the suspensions

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-25-09, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by IrishTim

Hey BDQH, agree with a lot of what you said but have trouble quantifying the intangible factors you bring up, such as let down spot, "not happy to be there", etc. As you may know, I handicap by making my own spreads as a I believe you do, but for the most part I either ignore this angle or give it 1-2 points on my spreads (such as I did with SMU tonight with their excitement to be in a bowl game after the "death penalty"). Curious to hear your thoughts.

I look into the reasons why each team are in the bowl game that they are in. I also look at the conference that a team is in. The MWC is a bit different than the rest of the conferences. The MWC had 2 teams that defeated good BCS Conference teams on the road, and one team that lost a close game to Oregon on the road. The MWC is trying to make a case for themselves to be included in the BCS. I gane every MWC team 3 extra points for that. Originally I was going to play Oregon State against BYU, but when I gave BYU the 3 points, and then deducted 2 points for Oregon State's 2nd blown Rose Bowl, the game became a no play. I deducted points from Cal because of injuries, and Tedfords inability to get his team up at times. It became pretty obvoius after the Washington game that Cal was just going to play out the season. That made Utah a solid favorite in my book, so I took the ML.

I always look for teams that earned their way into bowl games playing teams that dropped into the bowl game they are playing. Depending on how bad it was, that can be a 3-5 point swing. I took Kentucky and UNC becasue of that. I also look for teams that got insulted by being overlooked in favor of a more popular team. Miami fits here. They were snubbed by the Gotor Bowl people because they wanted old fa** Bowden for his last game as a coach. Miami will be out to show the world that they are a much better team than Florida State. +5 points for Miami, and a solid play for me.

The last thing I do is look for games to stay away from. Northwewtern-Auburn is that type of game. Everything points to an Auburn win, but Northwestern is one of those teams that gives 110% on every play of every game. I just cannot wager against a team like that.

**IrishTim** · 12-25-09, 03:40 PM

Thanks for the info, BD. Very helpful.

**snapstick** · 12-25-09, 03:59 PM

Good points BD. 2-3 so far with the final updated plays. Systems always have room to tweak a little for next season. No matter how this does this year i am going to put a few filters on the system for next year and see what happens. GL

**tblues2005** · 12-25-09, 04:20 PM

That is a good idea snapstick. Make adjustments to it and go from there. That just makes sense.

**paste_me** · 12-25-09, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by tblues2005

That is a good idea snapstick. Make adjustments to it and go from there. That just makes sense.

**RITZ** · 12-29-09, 12:52 AM

12-29 sagarin system play miami. Strength of schedule huge disparity here for miami side.

**tblues2005** · 12-29-09, 12:56 AM

I like Miami in the first place. I think they for sure win this one.

**sportsfan2009** · 12-29-09, 01:17 AM

what you think about temple vs ucla should easy for temple to cover and win i do not see why vegas has ucla as the favorite -5 but i am loving it i am taking the moneyline for temple what you think

**fishmonger** · 12-29-09, 02:41 AM

Love it!

One of my top bowl picks!

**Mac4Lyfe** · 12-29-09, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by sportsfan2009

what you think about temple vs ucla should easy for temple to cover and win i do not see why vegas has ucla as the favorite -5 but i am loving it i am taking the moneyline for temple what you think

I think UCLA wins pretty big here. UCLA has much better athletes and should dominate both lines of scrimmage. Temple's ground game will get grounded IMO.

**tblues2005** · 12-29-09, 04:10 AM

I don't know what to think of the Temple UCLA matchup. I do think the Pac 10 has been playing pretty bad so far for the exception of USC. This is a tough one for me because I have not been following Temple all year.

**GGPLAYER** · 12-29-09, 02:42 PM

I'm really gun shy now about these plays. I jumped in with both feet and was flying high after Wyo and Rutgers covered but then the Ore St, Cal and Nev games got real ugly. I liked Mia before I even read this thread but now I'm second guessing myself. From what I've seen the public is heavy on Mia and that alone makes me think is this might not be the right play.

No clue on UCLA/Temple. But based on what Cal and Ore St. did the Pac-10 was just a bit overrated?? Is a 6-6 squad from Southern Cal going to be up for a no name bowl game all the way across the country? Temple never sees a bowl game and they will be Way up for this one. My lean is Temple.

**Slate** · 12-29-09, 04:03 PM

Take Temple it is cold here and windy, with wind chill 1 degree and maybe lower by game time, UCLA will freeze, they will not want to play

**palmer2712** · 12-29-09, 04:04 PM

Temple +4.5 ( I hope). ahha

**Hoja Verdes** · 12-29-09, 05:59 PM

This thread needs Miami tonight or things might get ugly in here. I'm very interested to see how this system turns out. It's sort of reminiscent of that Randizzle guy last year on the other forum that went like 80% on the year and then buried the forum with a 4-10 bowl record. Hope snapstick fares better, good luck!