Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

**snapstick** · 12-22-09, 07:25 PM

Good Luck tonight. Oregon state should handle BYU!

**RITZ** · 12-22-09, 07:35 PM

snapstick- nobody is making the contrarians take the picks so don't debate them. i appreciate the data as you mined it for everyone to utilize or not. go ore state

**snapstick** · 12-22-09, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by RITZ

snapstick- nobody is making the contrarians take the picks so don't debate them. i appreciate the data as you mined it for everyone to utilize or not. go ore state

**IrishTim** · 12-22-09, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

I agree with IrishTim. Sure, SOS might be used in some cases (along with other factors) --- but, look at this game :

Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Both are ranked high and both have low SOS --- 82 and 98 . This is hardly a reason (if it is the only reason ) to pick one team over another. 82 and 98 SOS are essentially the same. Please think about it and don't say "the record speaks for itself."

This reminds of the time I did an experiment and flipped a coin 30 times. I got 21 heads. I guess I had a system I could begin to use if only I could have found a sucker to let me have heads on every subsequent flip.

Don't waste your time. They don't want to hear any logical reason why their system is imperfect. Taking TCU over Boise on the basis of strength of schedule is laughable. Boise St. +8 is the side with value (not always the side that wins but probably 54% of the time).

So TCU has a marginally better SOS? Then subtract one or two points from your handicapped line. Blindly betting on it is stupid.

And to snapstick, there is no chance you make enough money to make my truck and rent payments on sports betting. The only people who make money long-term in this game are advantage gamblers, and anyone who bets this system blindly is most certainly not an advantage gambler.

Trying to help people make money doesn't have to come in the form of telling them who or what to bet. Not losing a wager is often better than winning one. Have fun with your -EV "system". I'm out of here

**Serbone** · 12-22-09, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by IrishTim

Don't waste your time. They don't want to hear any logical reason why their system is imperfect. Taking TCU over Boise on the basis of strength of schedule is laughable. Boise St. +8 is the side with value (not always the side that wins but probably 54% of the time).

So TCU has a marginally better SOS? Then subtract one or two points from your handicapped line. Blindly betting on it is stupid.

And to snapstick, there is no chance you make enough money to make my truck and rent payments on sports betting. The only people who make money long-term in this game are advantage gamblers, and anyone who bets this system blindly is most certainly not an advantage gambler.

Trying to help people make money doesn't have to come in the form of telling them who or what to bet. Not losing a wager is often better than winning one. Have fun with your -EV "system". I'm out of here

I agree, it is a tool, and when there is only a slight advantage in SOS it is not significant in your decision making process. Tonite Ore State SOS is 15, BYU is 77, that is very significant but still should not be your sole determinant for wagering on Ore St, unless you just cannot decide and want to make a small wager.

**goblue12** · 12-22-09, 08:03 PM

I'm smelling a loss tonight for the system bettors seeing how BYU just closed shop at +EV.

**tblues2005** · 12-22-09, 08:55 PM

wow I didn't know that goblue. This game has 30 mph winds tonight also on top of that.

**lancerlotz** · 12-23-09, 12:53 AM

Anyone taking TCU -8 Might as well be wiping their ass with the money they wagered.
Sure, you might still be able to use the money, but it's highly unlikely.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-23-09, 10:31 AM

This system, which aparently changed a game, is now 2-2. Originally, UCF waw the play, then it wwitched to Rutgers. For me, that counts as both a win and a loss. Tonite, Cal should be a huge facorite, according to this system, having a 17 SOS vs 73 for Utah. I am not convinced. I think my arguement that Utah, like BYU, want to impress the Pac 10 incase they are forced to expand is a stronger argument than this system.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 12-23-09, 11:26 AM

SOS rankings sometimes are severely skewed. Sagarin is a noted Pac10 homer so any SOS with the Pac10 should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

**Serbone** · 12-23-09, 12:22 PM

System has flaws.

Think, UCF pick changed to Rutgers because of the Army-Navy outcome. WTF?

But it is a good tool. I think it is not completely on the button, we find some conferences are better or worse as the bowls go on... Is The Mountain West that good or were both teams just more prepared, more pumped up? Or was BYU last nite an anomoly?

Game last nite had BYU, higher altitude Utah mountain team, has practiced and played in the winds before, knew what to do how to adjust. Ore State, foo foo west coast team, did not. BYU had better power running game. Winds negated Ore State QB, he was clueless. And the Ore State punter, WTF, I repeat, WTF was he doing? Wouldn't you think the coaches would help him? Instead, he kept punting high, straight into the wind. BYU wanted to knock off Pac 10 team, Ore State quit, "its the weather".

So system is irrelevant in this spot. You have to consider conferences, injuries, motivation, coaching, "O" vs "D" matchups, location of game, turf, trends, history, weather, etc, not just Sagarin. Go with one category, you lose. Sagarin is on a good two year streak, like some yr SEC goes 7-3, does not mean you bet SEC every game the next yr.

**Formulawiz** · 12-23-09, 04:27 PM

I know the SAG system has CAL as a play, but my numbers has UTA as a play. Yes I know UTA plays in a weaker conference but look at BYU/OREG ST yesterday. My numbers had me all over BYU.
Secondly, I am not sure if smart money is coming in on UTA but it looks like the line is dropping below a prime number of 3. I would be careful here, I hope CAL wins.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 04:49 PM

Its FUNNY that the degenerates dont type a word until the system has a loss. These clowns were no where to be found when the system won the first 2 games. This isnt a thread for a few of you to post your handicapping expertise on plays against the system. This is a system thread so if you want to post your picks then start a thread, this is the sagarin System thread for all who are confused.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76) (Wyoming 35-28)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
(Rutgers 45-24)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
(Utah 44-20)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

Sagarin System Plays: 2-0, 100%

Sagarin System Plays: 2-1, 67%

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 05:01 PM

Good luck tonight with Cal if you play the system. If you dont then there are other threads to post your idiotic comments. Just do me one favor, if the system play wins tonight come back to the thread and tell everyone how great the play was just as you do when there is a loss.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

This system, which aparently changed a game, is now 2-2. Originally, UCF waw the play, then it wwitched to Rutgers. For me, that counts as both a win and a loss. Tonite, Cal should be a huge facorite, according to this system, having a 17 SOS vs 73 for Utah. I am not convinced. I think my arguement that Utah, like BYU, want to impress the Pac 10 incase they are forced to expand is a stronger argument than this system.

You are embarassing yourself bro. The game in question was changed 4 days before the bowl games started. Sure, some that couldnt check back might have lost the game but as far as the SYSTEM is concerned the record so far is 2-1. I do not need a secretary bro but if you want to be my personal secretary please get the numbers right or your fired.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

System has flaws.

Think, UCF pick changed to Rutgers because of the Army-Navy outcome. WTF?

But it is a good tool. I think it is not completely on the button, we find some conferences are better or worse as the bowls go on... Is The Mountain West that good or were both teams just more prepared, more pumped up? Or was BYU last nite an anomoly?

Game last nite had BYU, higher altitude Utah mountain team, has practiced and played in the winds before, knew what to do how to adjust. Ore State, foo foo west coast team, did not. BYU had better power running game. Winds negated Ore State QB, he was clueless. And the Ore State punter, WTF, I repeat, WTF was he doing? Wouldn't you think the coaches would help him? Instead, he kept punting high, straight into the wind. BYU wanted to knock off Pac 10 team, Ore State quit, "its the weather".

So system is irrelevant in this spot. You have to consider conferences, injuries, motivation, coaching, "O" vs "D" matchups, location of game, turf, trends, history, weather, etc, not just Sagarin. Go with one category, you lose. Sagarin is on a good two year streak, like some yr SEC goes 7-3, does not mean you bet SEC every game the next yr.

Thats called "Capping a game" bro. If you would like to do that start a thread with your plays.

If some of you spent as much time capping and helping others you might do more good here then these type of comments.

These are the reasons some dont post on these forums. Grow up and stick to the subject or start a different post.

**losturmarbles** · 12-23-09, 05:09 PM

did the ucf play get switched to rutgers because of the outcome of army-navy game?

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-23-09, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Here are my NCAAF Bowl Selections i will be playing for 2009-2010. All of these posted plays are final and their will be no deletions or additions. Good Luck and happy bowling. Oh yeah, i forgot to add...I wouldn't recommend fading these plays as this Sagarin System has done well in the past.

The listed lines are what i received at the time i placed my wagers.

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #6: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #7: Missouri PK (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #8: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #10: Troy +4 (SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #11: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #12: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

This is what you posted. Do not try to back out of it. You made the wager. You LOST. If you middled out, fine. That makes your record 2-2. Don't try to pull any amateur crap with me. I've been doing this for more years than you have porbably been around. Do not try topad your record. It will not work. I will call yuo uout every time, just like I am calling you out now.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

This is what you posted. Do not try to back out of it. You made the wager. You LOST. If you middled out, fine. That makes your record 2-2. Don't try to pull any amateur crap with me. I've been doing this for more years than you have porbably been around. Do not try topad your record. It will not work. I will call yuo uout every time, just like I am calling you out now.

I will say this one more time for the people such as yourself who have a hard time understanding english. First, The plays were posted and updated 4 games before the bowl games started due to the Army Navy outcome. Second as i have already stated if you spend some time reading previous posts, this isnt my system so the record doesnt mean anything to me. Im not skewing anything dude...understand that..this is the third time i have siad this....the plays were updated 4 days before the bowl games started....some saw it some didnt....as far as the updated official games stand the system is 2-1. I dont really give a rats ass what you think or if you cant understand that.

Third...believe me bro...you have no idea what i wager and you are no where close to what i do in sports. Your calling out ther wrong person.

**dvb02** · 12-23-09, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

I will say this one more time for the people such as yourself who have a hard time understanding english. First, The plays were posted and updated 4 games before the bowl games started due to the Army Navy outcome. Second as i have already stated if you spend some time reading previous posts, this isnt my system so the record doesnt mean anything to me. Im not skewing anything dude...understand that..this is the third time i have siad this....the plays were updated 4 days before the bowl games started....some saw it some didnt....as far as the updated official games stand the system is 2-1. I dont really give a rats ass what you think or if you cant understand that.

Third...believe me bro...you have no idea what i wager and you are no where close to what i do in sports. Your calling out ther wrong person.

Nice job Snapstick!!

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 07:26 PM

GL with cal tonight everyone. At least if we can win tonight it will keep the TROLLS away for another day.

**Skidcom** · 12-23-09, 07:30 PM

A little nervous about Cal after last night's beaver beating

**paste_me** · 12-23-09, 07:38 PM

im going to play the cal game, i have faith in this system

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 08:01 PM

Cal is a big play tonight not only for the system but if you capped the game. GL

**gomiamigo** · 12-23-09, 08:02 PM

Seems interesting, but sample size issues and I doubt it goes anywhere near that well going fwd. But we'll see! On Cal anyway...

**losturmarbles** · 12-23-09, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

did the ucf play get switched to rutgers because of the outcome of army-navy game?

i figured it would be an easy question to answer...???

did the outcome of army-navy game change the SOS ratings enough that it switched the play of the ucf/rutgers game?

or did slapstick just make an error in the first post?

**jackpot269** · 12-23-09, 08:10 PM

system looks good to me !!!!!!

**floridagolfer** · 12-23-09, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Cal is a big play tonight not only for the system but if you capped the game. GL

Huh? So no one who handicapped this game came up with a 3-point underdog as the more logical play? That's' ridiculous.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Huh? So no one who handicapped this game came up with a 3-point underdog as the more logical play? That's' ridiculous.

Boy do we have the the Einsteins of the world in this post. What i said was I capped the game big with CAL and the sharps are on Cal. If you capped the game +3 GL to you. Whats rediculous about that comment i made. GL to you and UTAH. You will need it brah!

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

i figured it would be an easy question to answer...???

did the outcome of army-navy game change the SOS ratings enough that it switched the play of the ucf/rutgers game?

or did slapstick just make an error in the first post?

Yes the Army Navy changed the SOS rankings which changed 2 plays.

**snapstick** · 12-23-09, 08:20 PM

i really didnt think that starting this post would require me to defend the post with every other comment. Unreal. I will not repspond to idiots any further. Gl everyone and whoever is on these plays your comments are welcome....others....start another post. Unfortunately.....every post draws the degenerates who have nothing else to do but spread stupid comments.

**floridagolfer** · 12-23-09, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Boy do we have the the Einsteins of the world in this post. What i said was I capped the game big with CAL and the sharps are on Cal. If you capped the game +3 GL to you. Whats rediculous about that comment i made. GL to you and UTAH. You will need it brah!

I didn't play the game, so how it plays out makes no difference to me at all. But this was a system play, so how you handicapped the game is immaterial.

**dvb02** · 12-23-09, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

i really didnt think that starting this post would require me to defend the post with every other comment. Unreal. I will not repspond to idiots any further. Gl everyone and whoever is on these plays your comments are welcome....others....start another post. Unfortunately.....every post draws the degenerates who have nothing else to do but spread stupid comments.

Exactly! Snap, don't bother replying to the idiots and doubters. They have nothing better to do but clog up this thread. Good luck tonight bro!!!!

**RITZ** · 12-23-09, 09:14 PM

BIG DADDY HEMORROID H- can't you make a change AND NOTICE A CHANGE 4 days ahead of the game? or ARE you too stuck in the mud to change something? c,mon man!