GiveMeaBJ Bowl Game Plays

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-07-09, 02:21 AM

Also going to have a fairly big play on Boise State. I see it at +8 now and will take it if it sinks to +7.5. However, I think there is still a shot this one will go up.

**The DiB** · 12-07-09, 08:51 AM

While Iowa may not have "impressed" some, I can tell you one thing- they will keep it close.

Iowa's defense is underrated in my opinion, and I'll be shocked if they get blown out like you are predicting. Iowa hasn't given up more than 30 points in 29 games, dating back to October 2007. They also haven't lose by more than 7 in over 2 full seasons. 11th in total defense, by no means are they a pushover, and after a month of preparation Norm Parker will have his boys ready. Look what LSU did to the their offense with a month to study the option.

Getting Ricky Stanzi back on offense will certainly be a huge boost. Iowa will have enough success moving the ball against a soft Georgia Tech defense to keep this game closer than most are saying. If this game continues to climb a little bit, I'll definitely make a play on Iowa.

BOL to you.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-07-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by The DiB

While Iowa may not have "impressed" some, I can tell you one thing- they will keep it close.

Iowa's defense is underrated in my opinion, and I'll be shocked if they get blown out like you are predicting. Iowa hasn't given up more than 30 points in 29 games, dating back to October 2007. They also haven't lose by more than 7 in over 2 full seasons. 11th in total defense, by no means are they a pushover, and after a month of preparation Norm Parker will have his boys ready. Look what LSU did to the their offense with a month to study the option.

Getting Ricky Stanzi back on offense will certainly be a huge boost. Iowa will have enough success moving the ball against a soft Georgia Tech defense to keep this game closer than most are saying. If this game continues to climb a little bit, I'll BOL to you.

I thought about the long month to prepare for the option and what LSU did to them last year but I don't think we see a repeat this year. LSU overmatched Georgia Tech with their team speed on defense. Iowa has a good defense but I don't think they are fast enough to contain the option. Iowa goes against the Big Ten schools who tend to be a bit slower on both sides of the ball. While the defense has given Big Ten teams problems I'm not sure they are going to be able to hang with a more finesse offense especially with Georgia Tech when they turn a good 60 yards of the field into 4 down territory. I'm still not sold on Stanzi. I think Ga Tech will definitley give up some good yardage but I can see those interceptions killing Stanzi against an offense like this.

Gl with whatever you decide.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-07-09, 11:53 AM

Iowa, like all Big 10 teams, is slow. Big and slow. They will have no chance against Ga. Tech's speedy triple option. The only offense close to this that Iowa saw all year was Michigan's offense, and Michigan put up 28 against Iowa. Ga. Tech is much better than Michigan offensively. Iowa will score some points, but they will not defeat Ga. Tech. I agree that Tech is the play here.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-07-09, 05:04 PM

Locking one in now:
Boise State +7.5 (-115 Matchbook) to win 7 Units

Another extremley big play for me, will write it up later tonight.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-07-09, 07:49 PM

Wanted to hit these openers. Will write them up at some point.

Rutgers -2 (Bookmaker) to win 3 Units
Oregon State -1.5 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units
USC -9 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units
Miami -3 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units
Nebraska +1 (Bookmaker) to win 3 Units
Stanford +10 (Boomaker) to win 4 Units
Minnesota -3 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units
LSU +3 (Bookmaker) to win 5 Units

Like a few more dogs but think I can get more value by waiting on these to move.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-07-09, 08:07 PM

My take. First, it is way too early to be wagerin gon bowl games. Suspensions will be coming. They always do. Stanford has already lost Luck, the big reason why Gerhart and the team did as well as they did. I would not touch any Big 10 team. Not with their recent record in Bowl games. USC is a very dangerous play. While they excell in BCS games, their record in non-BCS Bowl games is not real good. Again, this game will be won by the team that wants it the most. Giving 9 is dangerous, especially in San Francisco, where the weather is always lousy this time of year. Miami looks good. Wisky, like all Big 10 teams is just too slow. Nebraska is playing a pretty good Pac 10 team. Arizona is coming off a big win. Nebraska is coming off a big loss. The Big 12 North was not very good this year as a whole. 1 point is not nearly enough for a wager.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-07-09, 08:13 PM

I guess we each have our views on these games. However bowl game lines move drastically and I would rather have these lines 2-4 points in my favor rather then wagering on say Stanford +6 the week of the game.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-07-09, 08:17 PM

Stanford will be a bigger dog now that Luck is gone. If you paid close attention to this years games, the line movement was way down compared to last year. There was more movement, but in a much closer range. The sharps, wiseguys, cartels, (call them what you want) made some good money on middles this year. We hit 3 out of 10. That gave us +530 units out of our 1200+ unit profit. That is a lot. The books do not want to get hit like that in the bowl games.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-07-09, 08:19 PM

Stanford opened at 12 now all the way down to 9.5.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-16-09, 03:40 AM

Saturday, December 19th Plays

Rutgers -2 (-110 Bookmaker) to win 3 Units
Wyoming +11 (-110 TheGreek) to win 2 Units

**iceminers26** · 12-16-09, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Wanted to hit these openers. Will write them up at some point. Rutgers -2 (Bookmaker) to win 3 Units Oregon State -1.5 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units USC -9 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units Miami -3 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units Nebraska +1 (Bookmaker) to win 3 Units Stanford +10 (Boomaker) to win 4 Units Minnesota -3 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units LSU +3 (Bookmaker) to win 5 Units Like a few more dogs but think I can get more value by waiting on these to move.

Good luck, with you on the Huskers, to hard to pass up on that D.

**BBalonek** · 12-16-09, 04:18 AM

I need help someone

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-16-09, 09:17 AM

Wyoming +11 to win 2 Units
Was waiting to see if this line would rise a bit more but with the games drawing closer decided to lock it in now as I already have the 10 covered and don't see it going all the way to 14. Sure, Fresno States offense can put up points and the 5'11 Mathews is as explosive as they come but the defense leaves a lot to be desired. They have given up 50+ points three times this year. Yes, three. That alone leaves the 11 as too big. Not to mention this team lost a very similar bowl game last year to an 11 point dog in a 40-35 loss to Colorado State. People don't know much about Wyoming which I think is why the Wyoming backers are nowhere to be found however this team is not bad at all. Wyoming has a nice match up in several areas in this one. First, the base 3-4 defense they use I think is the best way to match up with this Fresno St offense, if the backers can contain Mathews it will put Fresno in bad shape. Wyoming's fatal flaw this year has been the pass protectioin however, Fresno ranks dead last in sacks in the nation. Wyoming's no huddle attack can cause fits for Fresno if they can't get to the quarterback. The Bulldogs have been awful in coverage for most of the year and with a well balanced offense I think Wyoming will put up enough points to hang right in this one.
Fresno 35, Wyoming 33

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-16-09, 09:27 AM

Rutgers -2 to win 3 Units
Rutgers has played very well on the big stage winning the past 3 bowl games they have played in over the past 3 years. They haven't been as bad as people think after seeing them get bum-rushed by Cincinatti on national tv. That loss doesn't look bad at all now. The 4 RU losses are Pitt, Cincy, WVU, and @Cuse in what was a real trap game of sorts. I fully expect them to be focused for this one. UCF has never won a bowl game in their limited experience. They get into the bowl picture this year with an 8-4 record but the only real statement win was the upset over Houston. After that they have a 4 point win vs Samford and wins over Rice, Marshall, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, and Buffalo. Not exactly a murderers row. UCF needs their running game to click to be successful in this one and I just don't see it against a very stingy Rutgers front seven. I am expecting big things from Savage and the standard RU trick plays we seem to see every bowl game they play in. As long as Rutgers could limit the damage the talented UCF receiving corps does in this one they will be able to stroll to a victory.
Rutgers 24, UCF 14

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-16-09, 12:31 PM

Fresno State will run all over a Wyoming team that needed a win against Weber State just to qualify for a bowl game. Wyoming played 5 bowl teams and lost to evey one. Fresno State has a win against a bowl team, a win against a Big 10 team, and played very well in losses against Wisconsin, Boise State, and Cincinnati. Two of those teams are undefeated this year. Fresno State simply has a lot more talent on their team, plus a coach who has been there forever and will not call the troops off. Pat Hill has been to many bowl games. The line seems to be fluctuating between 11 and 12, but I can see Fresno State easily winning by 14-17. Not enough to wager on, but surely enough to keep me away from Wyoming.

Rutgers is a disappointment this year. They lost to Pitt, Cincinnati, and West Virginia at home. They could not have asked for a better schedule than what they had. There simly was no excuse for the Syracuse loss. How could that game have possibly been a trap game, with Louisville on deck? This amounts to a home game for Central Florida. I think Rutgers should cover, but the way this team has performed this season, I just can't put any money on them. Everyone was talking about what a great coach Schiano is, but after this year's performance, that has to be questioned. All those home losses are disturbing. The loss to Syracuse is inexcusable.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-16-09, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Fresno State will run all over a Wyoming team that needed a win against Weber State just to qualify for a bowl game. Wyoming played 5 bowl teams and lost to evey one. Fresno State has a win against a bowl team, a win against a Big 10 team, and played very well in losses against Wisconsin, Boise State, and Cincinnati. Two of those teams are undefeated this year. Fresno State simply has a lot more talent on their team, plus a coach who has been there forever and will not call the troops off. Pat Hill has been to many bowl games. The line seems to be fluctuating between 11 and 12, but I can see Fresno State easily winning by 14-17. Not enough to wager on, but surely enough to keep me away from Wyoming.

Rutgers is a disappointment this year. They lost to Pitt, Cincinnati, and West Virginia at home. They could not have asked for a better schedule than what they had. There simly was no excuse for the Syracuse loss. How could that game have possibly been a trap game, with Louisville on deck? This amounts to a home game for Central Florida. I think Rutgers should cover, but the way this team has performed this season, I just can't put any money on them. Everyone was talking about what a great coach Schiano is, but after this year's performance, that has to be questioned. All those home losses are disturbing. The loss to Syracuse is inexcusable.

Wyoming points are fair. There is no way I am going to try to sit here and say I know for sure Mathews will be stopped. He could very well run wild, BUT I do think with the 3-4 scheme the possibility is there. This bet is more based on the horrid defense of Frenso giving up enough points to keep Wyoming close.

The Rutgers points, on paper it does look exactly like you said, however living right in the area and getting all the media coverage gives me a little more knowledge on this team. No one expected much of them this year, especially after the loss to Cincy. Coming into the year as an RU fan you know you aren't beating Cincy, Pitt, and WVU. You know you probably qualify for a bowl and the young QB probably leading to a very inconsistent team. But it's okay, this is a rebuilding year. Anyway the Cuse game was a trap game for the following reasons. They come off of a huge win on national TV where they maul a ranked So Fla team. They look at the schedule, @ Cuse, @ Lou, vs WVU. They begin to think if they beat Cuse and Lou they can be sitting 9-2 on the yea and a shot to finish 10-2 on Senior day. They are already looking ahead to WVU taking Cuse lightly and get tripped up. Rutgers defense is too stingy I think. This team is by no means a good team but they are much better then UCF I think.

**jnickell100** · 12-16-09, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Wyoming points are fair. There is no way I am going to try to sit here and say I know for sure Mathews will be stopped. He could very well run wild, BUT I do think with the 3-4 scheme the possibility is there. This bet is more based on the horrid defense of Frenso giving up enough points to keep Wyoming close.

The Rutgers points, on paper it does look exactly like you said, however living right in the area and getting all the media coverage gives me a little more knowledge on this team. No one expected much of them this year, especially after the loss to Cincy. Coming into the year as an RU fan you know you aren't beating Cincy, Pitt, and WVU. You know you probably qualify for a bowl and the young QB probably leading to a very inconsistent team. But it's okay, this is a rebuilding year. Anyway the Cuse game was a trap game for the following reasons. They come off of a huge win on national TV where they maul a ranked So Fla team. They look at the schedule, @ Cuse, @ Lou, vs WVU. They begin to think if they beat Cuse and Lou they can be sitting 9-2 on the yea and a shot to finish 10-2 on Senior day. They are already looking ahead to WVU taking Cuse lightly and get tripped up. Rutgers defense is too stingy I think. This team is by no means a good team but they are much better then UCF I think.

Theres no deying that Fresno's defense is horrible, they are in the bottom 115 in sacks and turnovers in the nation so i agree with you there. However, wyoming is not going to stop their offense and i believe Wisconsin was the only team to stop matthews so thats not going to happen.

The reason i dont like betting on Fresno when they're favored is because they always play up, or down to their opponent. When playing good teams, they seem to always have good games ie wisc, boise, and cinny. But when they play inferior teams they play down to their opponent(ie utah state, Lousiana tech and Idaho.)

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-16-09, 01:18 PM

I think worst case scenario this is 41-31 game. Fresno gave up 50 points 3 times this year. 3 times! Wyoming should be able to match scores.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-18-09, 08:57 AM

For tonight:

Montana +3 to win 2 Units

Don't ask questions.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-18-09, 11:41 AM

That is suprising about what locals thought about Rutgers, because we gave them a very good chance to win the Big East with their very favorable schedule. That being the case, I would really lay off of them now. Well, I will not be around to see either game, so GL on your wagers. I have things to do that are a lot more important than watching unremarkable teams play in meaningless bowl games.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-18-09, 08:48 PM

I won't be we watching either. The last thing I want to do is watch Wyoming play Fresno.

**jnickell100** · 12-18-09, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

I think worst case scenario this is 41-31 game. Fresno gave up 50 points 3 times this year. 3 times! Wyoming should be able to match scores.

Youre right and im not gonna argue about fresno's defense being a good( or even marginal) defense. But if you look a little deeper you'll see that Fresno's defense is especially bad against running or teams with a running. Nevada has one of the best rushing offenses in the nation and fresno could not keep them in check. Also, Illinois had Juice williams which runs a type of the spread. Finally we all know Boise has a potent offense so they just demolished Fresno(although it was a much closer game than the score indicates).

My point of this is that i really doubt that Wyoming keeps up with Fresno's offense they're just too good although history shows the underdog is the bet here....im still taking Fresno.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-18-09, 11:54 PM

Post Season: (1-0) (100% +2.00 Units)

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-19-09, 10:27 AM

Did you notice what happened in the Montana-Villanova game? Montana opened up at -4 in Vegas, then 'Nova climbs the ladder all the way up to -6 in some places, and settles at -2.5 to 3 by game time. Then a botched PAT and a snap that sails about 100 yards over the head of the holder for a FG attempt gives Montana a cover. This was a perfect example of a "bait and switch" where the wiseguys loaded up on 'Nova +4, managed to convince Joe Pub to load up on Nova, and then jumped all over Montana when Nova became a big favorite. The results? A "middle" for the wise guys, and a heart breaking loss for Joe Pub. This is how you make money wagering of football. You wait for your opportunities, and then jump on them when they present themselves. You took Montana. You made a good play.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-19-09, 10:40 AM

Thank you and good line analysis. The only thing I don't get yet is how to be able to tell "hey this line is going to move all the way over lets bet this now and this after it moves." Guess something I will have to learn with time.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-20-09, 01:33 AM

Today: 2-0 (+5.00 Units)
Post-Season: (3-0) (100% +7.00 Units)

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-20-09, 01:35 AM

Southern Mississippi -3 (-110 Matchbook) to win 2 Units

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-21-09, 12:39 AM

Today: 0-1 (-2.20 Units)
Post-Season: (3-1) (75% +4.80 Units)

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-21-09, 10:32 AM

Tuesday:

Oregon St -1.5 (Bookmaker) to win 4 Units

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-21-09, 10:38 AM

Locking these in for the week:

California -2.5 (-120 Bookmaker) to win 4 Units
North Carolina +3 (-120 Bodog) to win 3 Units

**GiveMeaBJ** · 12-22-09, 10:31 PM

Bowls: (3-2) (60% +0.40 Units)

Next Play:

Wednesday
Cal -2.5 to win 4 Units

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-23-09, 10:40 AM

You should have taken UNC and the ML. I think that UNC can stop Pitt. This is basically a home game for UNC.

**moodyt2** · 12-23-09, 10:58 AM

nobody thinks nevada is gonna blow out smu?