Mac's early leans in CFB 11/25/09

[Mac4Lyfe]

Happy Turkey Week everyone. Plenty of football all during the week. I hate weekday games for betting but maybe this is the week we don't have abnormalities.

Here are the following games that I'm leaning. The team in bold is who I'm leaning but will update this thread as I go.


Thursday
8pm UT at TAM +21.5 (I actually like TAM in the first half. UT has a history of starting slow in games, although they've improved recently. This is a Rivalry game and I had it circled as a TAM outright win a few weeks ago. UT has played much better lately and could cover this line but I think the first half line should be money in the bank)

Friday
7pm Pitt at WVU +1 (I like Pitt here but I wouldn't bet the house for one reason... Wannstadt. He's a fuk up waiting to happen. Pitt should cover here but it's hard to cap his buffoonery) Probably a small play

3:30pm NB at Colorado +10 (Colorado blows chunks but NB's offense often looks anemic. This could be a trap game for NB but I think they pound it in the second half) Another small play probably.

10pm Nevada at BSU -13.5 (I love Nevada and the ML here. Nevada is balling at a high level and they have 3 guys with over 1,000 yds rushing for the season, Taua, Kaepernick and Limpingcock. Their defense has improved but yes it's still suspect but this offense can put up points. I hate that smurf turf and it is a huge advantage for BSU but I think this will be a shootout and Kaepernick will find a way to win) I love this play but will probably buy 1/2 a point just to be safe.

12pm Illini at Cinci -20.5 (Cinci tends to play down to the competition, Pike is back but may feel pressure to perform. Illini are horrible but have played well of late. I've made a ton of money fading Zook this year but I think 20.5 is too many points even for him to screw up. Illini has the talent to actually beat Cinci if the defense steps up. They matchup with Cinci well and Cinci's offense isn't anything new to Illini. Similar styles should mean close game.)


Saturday
7pm Tenn at UK +2.5 (I love UK in this one. UK is a tough as nails team and Coach Brooks can get blood out of a turnip. Brooks has had a war of words with big mouth Kiffin and Brooks is the smarter coach by far. UT's defense is a MASH unit and their offense is the one dimensional type UK can stop all day long. Look at UK versus Bama this year and you will find your answer. UK is resilient beating UGA this past week and will out physical UT. UK wins big in this one over a banged up UT squad.)

7pm Ark +3.5 at LSU Still looking into this one but at first glance, I like Arkansas here over a mistake ridden, banged up LSU team.

10pm UCLA at USC -13 (I think UCLA may even win here. USC is in a downhill spiral. Their soft on the Dline which means UCLA's QB will have time to throw the ball and run the edges. USC's strength is their run game but UCLA is pretty good against it. I'm leaning UCLA, would like to get +14 but will probably sprinkle the ML as well)

8pm UGA at GT -7 (Are you kidding me -7? UGA is a hot mess. They can't stop traffic let alone a team that runs. They are undisciplined, don't play gap control on defense and are the most penalized team in CFB. Richt is on the hot seat as everyone wants him to get rid of his assistants. His loyalty has led him to bad judgement and he doesn't realize how bad this team really is. His nonchalant attitude has festered to the team where they don't give a shit. Cox sucks cocks and he alone is good for 7 GT points. He will cover the spread for GT all by himself. GT wins in a rout.)

12:30pm Okie St at OU -10 (I'm really liking OSU here. OU has zero offense and it's defense has had mental errors all year. I'll look at this a little closer but this line is screaming OSU) Probably a small play

12pm Wake at Duke +4 (Duke at home with points, still investigating.)

3:30pm Mizzou at Kansas +3.5 (Kansas is another team tailspinning. I've faded Mizzou to the bank several times this year along with the Illini but this may be the week to jump on the bandwagon)

6pm Baylor +20.5 at TT (Leaning Baylor but TT plays well at home. Small play probably.)

3:30pm FSU at UF -24 (I hate laying a lot of chalk but FSU sucks on both sides of the ball. If Ponder was playing I would like FSU to cover but new QB playing against UF's defense and I can't see FSU scoring more than 10 points. FSU's defense hasn't stopped anyone all year so this points to a beatdown of epic proportions. I really see a 45 - 7 beat down...)

5pm Utah at BYU -7.5 (Leaning Utah here but need to review)

5pm Utah st at Idaho -3 (Leaning Idaho but very slightly. This should be a great game that will come down the wire)


I'm staying away from ND/Stanford and Navy/Hawaii games. All four teams are Dr. Jekyll/ Mr. Hyde's.

[bigcat1]

i hope your right in the uk game, that we would be a streak i would love to see, its been roughly 25 years since we beat ut.....but i don't see it...its a no play for me, kentucky has been good to me this year, something tells me to get off the wagon, living in somerset kentucky, i have not heard any talk between brooks and kiffin, i may be wrong but i haven't heard it, but i wish you alot of luck in the play...if uk wins it will be a cobb/lock show..

[HoulihansTX]

7pm Ark +3.5 at LSU Still looking into this one but at first glance, I like Arkansas here over a mistake ridden, banged up LSU team.

5pm Utah at BYU -7.5 (Leaning Utah here but need to review)


I will prolly be on these teams ML. Their opponents are home but vulnerable. Why is BYU a TD fav?? Those teams are dead even to me,and BYU holds no home field advantage.

LSU is offensively inept,and the D-Line is not what it used to be. The coaching advantage is on the Ark sideline, and Petrino is hungry for some signature wins. Especially after being jobbed in Gainesville.

[BigdaddyQH]

I would be careful about any MAC team, especially in a rivalry game. It certainly appears that Utah plus all those points (if they are available when you wager) would be a solid play, but that is what everyone thought when BYU gave a ton of points to the Air Force. BYU easily covered that game.

I still do not understand how everyone can be in love with Nevada, a team that has never defeated Boise State in the past 10 years, and who is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Boise. In case anyone forgot, Boise is battling for a BCS spot. That means a lot of money to the WAC. The way the officiating has been of late, do you think that the WAC will just sit back and wave good-bye to a 14 million dollar payout? Not saying anything, but to me, a ML wager on Nevada is throwing money away. This is a pass game.

Pitt does have Wanny, but West Virginia counters with Bill Stewart. I think that equals itself out. Still, it is probably a good game to either pass on, or play small.

You would think that Nebraska just rolls over Colorado, but Nebraska's offense has looked so bad that it is hard to trust them. Another pass.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Bigdaddy - Dam good point about WVU, I forgot about Stewart's ineptitude. Tough to cap both coaches here. Small play for sure.

Nevada is playing at a high level right now. I've watched them all year and this team is impressive. BSU is as well but I think Nevada's offense is the better of the 2 and BSU's defense may be a tad bit better but not much. The BCS payout is $17.5 Million http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/facts and I agree the refs will be all over Boise but I like the way Nevada's playing. I really think they are the better team here. It will certainly be entertaining. This is going to be a fun week.

[madworld]

Utah ML is a good way to go, but I will definetly be on the +7.5. Utah will not lose this by more than a touchdown if they lose!

[Mac4Lyfe]

i hope your right in the uk game, that we would be a streak i would love to see, its been roughly 25 years since we beat ut.....but i don't see it...its a no play for me, kentucky has been good to me this year, something tells me to get off the wagon, living in somerset kentucky, i have not heard any talk between brooks and kiffin, i may be wrong but i haven't heard it, but i wish you alot of luck in the play...if uk wins it will be a cobb/lock show..

The streak ends this week. UT's LB's are smashed and mashed. So is the secondary. They are plugging a bunch of holes. Kiffin is so desperate he brought arm robber get away car guy JJackson back to the team because he knows he needs everybody he can get. He said in his presser that he's going to have a new wrinkle at LB?? That tells me that they don't know what the hell they are going to do to stop the run.

Cobb will be ready to go for UK and CB Trevard Lindley has slowly gotten back into the game the past couple of weeks as well. UT's going down in this one

[Mac4Lyfe]

I also failed to mention that Tennessee played 11 walkons against Vandy last week... Also don't forget that Randall Cobb grew up right down the street, considered UT his dream school and never even got a phone call as well.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Other random thoughts...

Friday Pittsburgh - This is a pickem game for sure. Pitt is 4-1 ATS while WVU is 1-4 in it's last 5 games but WVU is 5-2 ATS playing Pitt at home. Pitt is the better team top to bottom but it's a road game and both coaches are inept. As bad as WVU has been taking care of the ball, Pitt is actually much worse. Go figure. Pitt is playing the better football so I'd take them with a pickem but this is the type of game that looks too easy for Pitt but you should probably not play.

Friday Temple I like Temple -2.5. This is one of the biggest football games in Temple history. They have played lights out after losing their first 2 games of the season. This is a young team made up of Freshman and Sophmores but this late in the year you really can't say that they are young. I think they will control the line of scrimmage and they wear down on teams in the 2nd half. Temple is currently down 7-3 but I expect them to control the 2nd half.

Friday I like Nebraska -10.5. and I like the Under 40, I actually think this is going to be a 27-10 type of game. It should be a very windy game which will slow down the passing and since Nebraska loves the pass too much, I see them going 3 and out a lot. The Buffs offense is bad and NB will keep Hansen on his back. The over looks very tempting but Colorado will have difficulty scoring here.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I now like LSU -3.5 here. Arkansas strength is the pass but LSU have shutdown corners. LSU's defense is better than Arkansas and Arky can't play worth a dam on the road this year. Riverboat gambler Les Miles is on the hot seat and he and the players are going to all be focused this week. They will probably play mistake free for once.

Utah - this is a matchup of 2 fairly even teams. Utah has had some injuries and they are young compared to BYU veteran players but they are just as talented. Utah better on the run, BYU better in the air but both defenses are best at the offenses strengths. Utah will keep this game close and 7.5 is too many points IMO. I like Utah and may sprinkle a little ML too.

Boston College - 6 Everything screams BC in this game stat's wise but I'm not impressed with them. If this game was played in Boston, I'd be a little more confident but this game has trap written all over it. Home dog with nothing to lose, playing for their coach?? This is another game I'd stay away but I'd lean Maryland.

North Carolina -5.5 This game looks like an easy UNC cover. They are playing tough, solid smash mouth football and seem to be much better than state but why is the line so low? State seems to play to the competition and seem to always keep this game close. My heart is saying that this is a game to stay away but my head says go with what you know and that is that UNC is better so bet them. UNC -5.5. NC state defense is one of the worst also.

Okie St +8, OU has imploded and their offense has grinded to a halt. This game had so much promise at the beginning of the year but now only Okie State has something to play for. I think OU's offensive line will be exposed again and won't be able to move the ball. I like the under 49 but also like Okie to cover the +8 and actually win the game. The win streak at norman ends Saturday IMO. Okie State to cover and sprinkle ML.

Central Florida - I like UCF -3. Mainly because they have a good defense that can stop the run. This may be a shootout and I like the over 53. UCF can keep up with UAB but I don't think UAB can keep up with UCF.

Navy - I like Navy -9.5 but this could be close.

East Carolina - I like Southern Miss here +5.5. This is an evenly matched game with a slight edge to SoMiss and I'm getting points? They have the better personnel and the better QB. ECU defense is good but SoMiss defense is under the radar. slight lean to SoMiss' offense.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Last weekend of the regular CFB season and I have a lot of loot riding on these games.



11/28/2009 11:37 AM Spread 5 Units
Football - 157 Central Florida -3 -110 for Game

11/28/2009 11:36 AM Spread 1.5 Units
Football - 157 Central Florida -1½ -110 for 1st Half

11/28/2009 11:33 AM Spread 5 Units
Football - 183 Miami Florida -6 -110 for Game

11/28/2009 11:27 AM Spread 2 Units
Football - 145 North Carolina -3 -115 for 1st Half

11/28/2009 11:27 AM Spread 1.5 Units
Football - 151 Mississippi -4½ -110 for 1st Half

11/28/2009 11:25 AM Spread 1.5 Units
Football - 165 Oklahoma State +8 -110 for Game

11/28/2009 11:25 AM Money Line 1Unit
Football - 165 Oklahoma State +255 for Game

11/28/2009 11:24 AM Spread 2.5 Units
Football - 151 Mississippi -7 -120 buying ½ for Game

11/28/2009 11:23 AM Spread 2.5 Units
Football - 145 North Carolina -6 -110 for Game

11/24/2009 2:23 PM Spread 4 Units
Football - 168 Florida -24 -110 for Game

11/24/2009 1:27 PM Spread 10 Units
Football - 170 Georgia Tech -7 -110 for Game