Interesting trend with teams who have 3 straight ATS wins

ackem19 · 11-12-09, 01:49 AM

Teams who have 3 consecutive ATS wins heading into this week
Miami (OH)

Boston College

Ohio St.

Clemson

Arizona

Air Force

Mississippi St.

Mid Tennessee St.

jnickell100 · 11-12-09, 02:55 AM

Hmm that is definitely interesting. I was checking into Cal and am kinda stuck on it. I think Arizona is a little overrated.

Jonah · 11-12-09, 04:38 AM

Kinda like Miss State...TCU has four in a row...so you are saying that does not count?

HoulihansTX · 11-12-09, 08:29 AM

Great research, bro. I am very wary of teams that cover many games in a row. I know Vegas becomes aware then adds extra juice to those teams. In order to goad bettors into jumping on the trend.

You know How I feel about trends. BET AGAINST TRENDS.

Since you are doing in-depth research look into Marshall they are my Undervalued/Underrated team of the second half of the year. Look at how many times they have won SU as underdogs. I did a write up on them last week.

BigdaddyQH · 11-12-09, 11:25 AM

[QUOTE=HoulihansTX;2549068]Great research, bro. I am very wary of teams that cover many games in a row. I know Vegas becomes aware then adds extra juice to those teams. In order to goad bettors into jumping on the trend.

You know How I feel about trends. BET AGAINST TRENDS.

Since you are doing in-depth research look into Marshall they are my Undervalued/Underrated team of the second half of the year. Look at how many times they have won SU as underdogs. I did a write up on them last week.

Betting against trends is the absolute worst thing you can do. It violates a cardinal rule if you are a gambler. You wither bet with the streak or not at all. The reasoning is very simple. If you bet with a streak, you can win countless times, but if you bet against a streak, you can only win once. A streak is considered 2 wins, or losses, in a row. This years college breakdown is 171 wins or losses to continue the streak, 140 wins or losses to break the streak. Approximately 57% to 43% for continuing the streak. This obviously should not be the determining factor as to whether you make a play or not, but used as additional information to formulate your choice.

HoulihansTX · 11-12-09, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Betting against trends is the absolute worst thing you can do. It violates a cardinal rule if you are a gambler. You wither bet with the streak or not at all. The reasoning is very simple. If you bet with a streak, you can win countless times, but if you bet against a streak, you can only win once. A streak is considered 2 wins, or losses, in a row. This years college breakdown is 171 wins or losses to continue the streak, 140 wins or losses to break the streak. Approximately 57% to 43% for continuing the streak. This obviously should not be the determining factor as to whether you make a play or not, but used as additional information to formulate your choice.

A rebuttal:

Bet against trends. By the time trends have become stat worthy, they are irrelevant. Better to be able to prognosticate how a team is playing, and bet on them while the trend is forming. Did it with Idaho(CFB) this year. They went on a 7-0 ATS run, and I got on with the last 4 then was able to jump off at the right time.

ackem19 · 11-16-09, 03:43 AM

[B]Miami (OH) L

Boston College L

Ohio St. L

Clemson W

Arizona L

Air Force W

Mississippi St. L

Mid Tennessee St. W

3-5 this week. I'm convinced that the 4th game curse works.

eastvan09 · 11-16-09, 11:34 AM

Nice work ackem, keep it up! I went ag that by Betting on Miami OH and Arizona. This week I will take that into account.

TheBetBuysDanK · 11-16-09, 01:16 PM

very interesting. who ya got on three straight ATS wins this week, ackem?

polson22 · 11-16-09, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

If a team has one say 6 In a row and they lose their 7th, that doesn't count. If a team has won 7 in a row and lose their 8th, THAT COUNTS. That was the case with Idaho.

hey, great stuff..... although i don't understand this sentence/idea at all. why is a team that's won 6 in a row different than 7 in a row??...... also, shouldn't we just play 3 ATS win teams only, NOT more..... i realize you can play it any way you want, of course.

trends are interesting, i like them and i tend to go with them, but i have wondered if they have an optimal lifespan... hawaii this year is prime example or mississippi/tennessee this year are good examples. you have to get on trends early without getting whipsawed.....

anyway, i look at this stuff alot. i think there's intellectual room to go with or against ATS or O/U trends, just have to do it selectively

polson22 · 11-16-09, 07:46 PM

also, it seems as soon as others follow a system or it goes live it invariably doesn't work. some kind of murphy's law or something.

was following a winning guy on O/U. tailed a few picks, but others i couldn't get the number he got. but he was big winner, seemingly every week. and really a few points here and there didn't affect win rate too much......

i tailed him 100% this last weekend and played every top-rated game regardless of a couple of points slippage here and there., and of course, he had losing weekend. not a huge losing weekend, but his first that i've seen.

wal66 · 11-16-09, 09:05 PM

I don't know if anyone picked up on it or not but there was two opposing sides in this post and just so happens even though they opposed one another they were both respectively correct.

QH was spot on about riding out a streak or a trend when he said they can continue for an infinite time but can end only once, If you catch one of these early on it can be a very profitable ride.

Houl's is equally correct when he mentioned finding those situations where it is time to get off the train. Houl's approach takes a much more sharp capper though. He has to understand the lines very weel and realize when Vegas has made the adjustment. He has to pay very close attention to situations such as injuries and suspensions and other intangibles that could be the end of the line for the continuation of the streak.

Both QH and Houl's are very sharp and equally correct in their individual approaches to this subject. Pay attention guys you can only learn if you're willing to put in the effort.

polson22 · 11-16-09, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I don't know if anyone picked up on it or not but there was two opposing sides in this post and just so happens even though they opposed one another they were both respectively correct.

QH was spot on about riding out a streak or a trend when he said they can continue for an infinite time but can end only once, If you catch one of these early on it can be a very profitable ride.

Houl's is equally correct when he mentioned finding those situations where it is time to get off the train. Houl's approach takes a much more sharp capper though. He has to understand the lines very weel and realize when Vegas has made the adjustment. He has to pay very close attention to situations such as injuries and suspensions and other intangibles that could be the end of the line for the continuation of the streak.

Both QH and Houl's are very sharp and equally correct in their individual approaches to this subject. Pay attention guys you can only learn if you're willing to put in the effort.

good comments... as i said, i play trends, and i go with them... but i've really started to notice how quickly they turn. enormous variance. and i need to understand what makes teams suddenly improve. watching injuries does seem like a a very valuable, but very time-consuming activity that requires alot of expertise.

i think the best strategy is to find a turn in god-awful teams. i think that cakasmaloy system is good. public seems to avoid terrible teams, but i think insiders might load up knowing they're getting some key injured guys back. if you play cakas' system as a system, you need to plug your nose on some of the picks, like ball state, hawaii, and even rice has gone on a little point spread run...

still that's a technical system and what wal66 is suggesting is actual detailed handicapping for being a sharp.

hhsilver · 11-18-09, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by ackem19

I've noticed throughout the year, teams with 3 consecutive ATS wins often lose ATS in their 4th game.
Examples:
...........

The record for teams with 3 consecutive ATS wins, in their 4th game: 19-30

If a team has one say 6 In a row and they lose their 7th, that doesn't count. If a team has won 7 in a row and lose their 8th, THAT COUNTS. That was the case with Idaho.

So THIS YEAR three is the magic number.. Please check this out for the last 20 years and also check on whether the opponent is on some kind of streak. But, before wasting your time, tell us and yourself why 3 would be better than 2 or 4 or 5 and why, if a team gets the 4th win, you want to wait until they reach 7 straight wins before fading them again after the fade of their 4th game failed ( I wonder what kind of sample size a streak of 7 ats wins would yield over 20 years ).

This reminds me of the time I did an experiment where I flipped a coin 49 times on each floor of a 12 story building. On the 4th floor I got 30 heads and 19 tails. I tried to find a 'sucker' who would bet me on coin flips - but only if we did it on the 4th floor and only if I got to have heads each time. Alas, I couldn't find anyone to bet me - damn, I could have made a lot of money.

HoulihansTX · 11-21-09, 10:14 AM

Bump

billysink · 11-21-09, 11:42 AM

Some current ATS streaks to ponder

N. Carolina @ B.C. -3.5...N.C. streak is 3 games
Cal @ Stanford -7... Stanford streak is 3...line down from 8.5 yesterday
Rutgers -10 @ Syracuse...Rutgers streak is 3...line moved to 10 from 8.5 this morning
Air Force @ BYU -9.5...Air Force streak is 4...line down from 10.5

I will be playing Syracuse +10 for 2 units

There are several other streaks, I am still capping those games and will post again

billysink · 11-21-09, 11:44 AM

I have also played B.C. but bought the tick to -3 (-114) for 1 unit