Rate my card (my biggest plays of the year....) HELP!

**Dbldown11** · 11-04-09, 05:34 PM

I really like Temple and SMU but no real strong opinions on the other 2.

9 does seem like a lot for LSU to be getting....but I think Bama could just blow them out, especially after dropping a spot in the polls
Nebraska has been playing like crap lately and I think you may be on the right side there as well....but no action from me.

GL to you as we are not opposite any sides

**Handicapme** · 11-04-09, 05:39 PM

Just added Oregon at -6.5 for (8 units)...was going to do it at the beginning of the week for my unusual 2 units, but waited and did my research and changed it to a 4 unit play. I then saw the write up made by Wall66 and said **** it and doubled the bet. I did lose a point of value not getting it at 5.5, but am still happy with 6.5...

BTW thanks Dd!!!... I know neb can have one of there lucky amazing games, but I've never felt this strong about a game before, so gut+"line value"+pure stats+watching both teams= biggest play for me...

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-04-09, 06:12 PM

I like the temple, SMU, Ore, and ok picks. I'm with you on each of those. Lsu is iffy for me, for the reason dbl stated. While I think their D will keep it close, and Bama's O isnt exactly blow out caliber, I'm not entirely sold on it.

Now, I have Lsu in a 10 point teaser with USC and Wisc, so its its LSU +17, Wisc and USc -.5. I think this is really solid.

Dbl has a great thur night teaser. if you like temple, you may wanna throw some down on that to cover yourself in case temple wins but doesnt cover. Miami shouldnt pose too much a problem though. BUT, you never know with these weekday games.

BOL on saturday. For both of our sakes, I hope OK destroys NEB.

**jds07v** · 11-04-09, 06:53 PM

with you on temple and OU, although temple is a bigger play for me. im not on the other two games, but betting against rice is a good idea. best of luck

**wal66** · 11-04-09, 07:14 PM

Handi..........Initially they look good. I am still finalizing some of these games and when I am done I will post what I have on them. I'll post here for you since I don't think they will be posted plays for myself.

**wal66** · 11-04-09, 09:26 PM

Miami Ohio @ Temple

I was surprised to notice how difficult of a schedule Miami-Ohio has played. You see their record and assume they just are a bad team when in fact they have simply played an extremely tough schedule. By my rankings Miami-Ohio’s average strength of opponent is 71 as opposed to Temple’s average opponent’s strength of 64.’ This is actually a drastic differential.
I put much emphasis on common opponents because this is a clear picture of what we might expect when two teams meet. Both have played and beat Toledo. Miami-Ohio won 31-24 and temple won 40-24. The advantage here goes to temple since they won on the road and Miami-Ohio won at home.
I also compared Home and AWAY offense vs defense.
Miami-Ohio averages 9.6 ppg on the road. (Keep in mind they played Boise St and Kentucky on the road)
Temple allows an average of 18 ppg at home.
Miami-Ohio allows an average of 35.1 ppg on the road. (again Boise St and Kentucky)
Temple averages 28 ppg at home.
Temple is 2-1 SU and ATS in last 3 meetings. They have won and covered 2 straight against Miami-Ohio.
The estimated program line is Temple by 15.5 so the value we had at opening is now gone.

Oklahoma @ Nebraska

Oklahoma’s opponent strength averages 70.8 and Nebraska’s averages 68.8 so some advantage to Oklahoma.
Common opponent is Baylor. Oklahoma won 33-7 at home and Nebraska won 20-10 on the road.
Oklahoma averages 22.7 ppg on the road.
Nebraska allows an average of 10.4 ppg at home. (should look at who opponents were)
Oklahoma allows an average of 16.7 ppg on the road.
Nebraska averages 31.8 ppg at home. (again checkout opponents)
The estimated program line is Oklahoma by 4 so we have no value either way. (+/- 3.5 qualifies as minimum)

Rice @ SMU

SMU opponent strength is 70.3 and Rice’s opponent strength is 69.7 so on the numbers it’s almost a wash but when you factor in the records overall the edge is definitely in SMU favor.
Common Opponents:
Rice 13 East Carolina 49
East Carolina 21 SMU 28
Tulsa 27 Rice 10
SMU-27 Tulsa-13
Rice-24 UAB-44
SMU-35 UAB-33
Navy-63 Rice-14
Navy-38 SMU-35
In the last ten meetings between the two Rice is 7-3 SU and ATS and has won 3 straight.
Rice averages 17.8 ppg on the road.
SMU allows an average of 27.3 ppg at home.
Rice allows an average of 47.3 ppg on the road.
SMU averages 31.3 ppg at home.
Special note of interest is SMU is still playing to qualify for a bowl game and Rice’s season has been over.
The estimated program line is SMU by 22.5 so you have value here with SMU.

LSU @ Alabama

Alabama’s strength of opponent is 72.7 and LSU is 71.6 so minimum edge to Alabama.
There were no common opponents to evaluate for these teams.
LSU averages 27 ppg on the road.
Alabama allows an average of 8.8 ppg at home.
LSU allows an average of 20.7 ppg on the road.
Alabama averages 32 ppg at home but only 22.3 ppg at home when facing a quality defense.
The estimated program line is Alabama by 4.5 so LSU has value as a play.
Everything in the analysis tells me LSU +points is the play but personally I think Alabama relishes games like this and are good to -10.

That is everything I have available. The Oregon gam I already have a write-up on in my thread. I hope you find something that fits what you're thinking.

**wal66** · 11-04-09, 09:30 PM

I did this work for someone else but it is too much work to not include it in my thread as well. As of now none of these are games I am on but the SMU game has serious potential.

Miami Ohio @ Temple

I was surprised to notice how difficult of a schedule Miami-Ohio has played. You see their record and assume they just are a bad team when in fact they have simply played an extremely tough schedule. By my rankings Miami-Ohio’s average strength of opponent is 71 as opposed to Temple’s average opponent’s strength of 64.’ This is actually a drastic differential.
I put much emphasis on common opponents because this is a clear picture of what we might expect when two teams meet. Both have played and beat Toledo. Miami-Ohio won 31-24 and temple won 40-24. The advantage here goes to temple since they won on the road and Miami-Ohio won at home.
I also compared Home and AWAY offense vs defense.
Miami-Ohio averages 9.6 ppg on the road. (Keep in mind they played Boise St and Kentucky on the road)
Temple allows an average of 18 ppg at home.
Miami-Ohio allows an average of 35.1 ppg on the road. (again Boise St and Kentucky)
Temple averages 28 ppg at home.
Temple is 2-1 SU and ATS in last 3 meetings. They have won and covered 2 straight against Miami-Ohio.
The estimated program line is Temple by 15.5 so the value we had at opening is now gone.

Oklahoma @ Nebraska

Oklahoma’s opponent strength averages 70.8 and Nebraska’s averages 68.8 so some advantage to Oklahoma.
Common opponent is Baylor. Oklahoma won 33-7 at home and Nebraska won 20-10 on the road.
Oklahoma averages 22.7 ppg on the road.
Nebraska allows an average of 10.4 ppg at home. (should look at who opponents were)
Oklahoma allows an average of 16.7 ppg on the road.
Nebraska averages 31.8 ppg at home. (again checkout opponents)
The estimated program line is Oklahoma by 4 so we have no value either way. (+/- 3.5 qualifies as minimum)

Rice @ SMU

SMU opponent strength is 70.3 and Rice’s opponent strength is 69.7 so on the numbers it’s almost a wash but when you factor in the records overall the edge is definitely in SMU favor.
Common Opponents:
Rice 13 East Carolina 49
East Carolina 21 SMU 28
Tulsa 27 Rice 10
SMU-27 Tulsa-13
Rice-24 UAB-44
SMU-35 UAB-33
Navy-63 Rice-14
Navy-38 SMU-35
In the last ten meetings between the two Rice is 7-3 SU and ATS and has won 3 straight.
Rice averages 17.8 ppg on the road.
SMU allows an average of 27.3 ppg at home.
Rice allows an average of 47.3 ppg on the road.
SMU averages 31.3 ppg at home.
Special note of interest is SMU is still playing to qualify for a bowl game and Rice’s season has been over.
The estimated program line is SMU by 22.5 so you have value here with SMU.

LSU @ Alabama

Alabama’s strength of opponent is 72.7 and LSU is 71.6 so minimum edge to Alabama.
There were no common opponents to evaluate for these teams.
LSU averages 27 ppg on the road.
Alabama allows an average of 8.8 ppg at home.
LSU allows an average of 20.7 ppg on the road.
Alabama averages 32 ppg at home but only 22.3 ppg at home when facing a quality defense.
The estimated program line is Alabama by 4.5 so LSU has value as a play.
Everything in the analysis tells me LSU +points is the play but personally I think Alabama relishes games like this and are good to -10.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-04-09, 10:05 PM

On LSU and Oklahoma myself, so I like those plays. Temple looked good at 14 when it opened then shot to 17 which makes it a no-play for me, and SMU again you definitely have the better team here. June Jones really has this team playing well, but I didn't like the big number so I stayed away. GL this week

**Handicapme** · 11-04-09, 10:33 PM

wow thanks wal... makes me wanna call my book up and cancel 2 of my plays lol... but I was confident about them to start, so I'm going down with the ship I guess, but dude I do appreciate all the info.

Cougar Bait- thanks dude, I'm loving these picks more then I loved duke on the ML last week so we'll see

**jellobiafra** · 11-04-09, 10:37 PM

What makes these picks special enough to bet more money than you ever have in your life on them?

Regardless, good luck.