Alabama, LSU clash to decide SEC West
Jordan Jefferson and the LSU Tigers will arrive at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa on Saturday ranked No. 9 in the latest BCS standings with a 7-1 record. The Alabama Crimson Tide will take the field surrounded by friendlies in the No. 3 slot with an unblemished 8-0 record. When the two teams leave at the end of the game, the SEC West should be decided and the BCS waters should be a little less muddy.
Don’t think the players are jacked up for Saturday afternoon’s showdown in Tuscaloosa between LSU and Alabama? Tigers linebacker Perry Riley summed up his perspective like this: “The national championship game, the SEC championship game, and a bowl game are not as important as this game. To get to any of those games at the end of the year, we have to win this game.”
The players get it. Every bettor and their brother also knows Saturday’s winner will surely advance to the SEC championship game next month, which in all likelihood is going to be a play-in game with Florida to see which school goes to the BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena.
Understanding the importance of this game is key to handicapping the motivation of the players involved, but it says only a little about which team will cover the spread. Judging by consensus behavior, the public likes the underdog Tigers to steal the cash at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday.
No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama (-7½, 38)
Saturday – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Oddsmakers opened the Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-3 ATS) as 9.5-point chalk earlier in the week, but bettors jumped all over the Tigers (7-1, 4-4 ATS) at that price. Through Tuesday night, about 60% of plays on the spread had come in on LSU, forcing every sportsbook under the sun to adjust the spread. The Tigers are getting 7.5 points from most outlets, although LSU +8 and +8.5 are still floating around both in Vegas and offshore.
Bettors are wary of laying down money on Alabama because of the recent play of quarterback Greg McElroy. After starting the season well, McElroy has struggled in recent weeks, most notably in the Tide’s 12-10 shading of Tennessee (+14) on October 24. McElroy went 18-of-29, but managed only 120 yards passing on the day. If not for four field goals from kicker Leigh Tiffin, Alabama wouldn’t have gotten past the Volunteers.
The good news for Tide backers is the team has had an extra week to prepare for the Tigers, who ripped Tulane 42-0 as 36.5-point home favorites in a cupcake game last week. The cover on the betting odds board lifted Louisiana State to 3-1 against the number (3-1 SU) in its last four contests, with the only blemish coming in its 13-3 loss against Florida (-9.5) on October 10.
That game is also a reason bettors are putting their money on the Tigers. The Tide have some reasonably tough wins against Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and Mississippi, but only one of those teams (the Hokies) remain in the top 25 in the polls. LSU didn’t exactly move the ball against Florida, but it did do a good job of slowing down Tim Tebow and the Gators’ offense. That bodes well for the Tigers’ ability to keep the Tide within striking distance on Saturday afternoon.
The schools sport two of the country’s toughest defenses, and that along with some recent trends makes the under the sharp play on the total. LSU is seventh in the nation in scoring defense (12.1 points per game) heading into Saturday, while Alabama is fourth overall (11.4 PPG). The Tide are also fourth in total defense (240.9 YPG) and second against the run (64.9 YPG).
Alabama played under the 41.5-point total set by oddsmakers for its battle with Tennessee in Week 8. That was the Tide’s fourth under in five games, and their seventh under in their last eight contests in SEC play. 2-6 O/U on the season, the Tigers took home their fourth consecutive under in their waxing of the Green Wave last Saturday (45.5), and have played under in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog.
John Parker Wilson’s 1-yard touchdown dive in overtime lifted Alabama (-3) past Louisiana State 27-21 at Tiger Stadium when the teams met last season. The victory was the first against the Tigers in six years for the Tide, who continued a trend favoring LSU on Saturday: The road team is 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups between the SEC West rivals.
Jordan Jefferson and the LSU Tigers will arrive at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa on Saturday ranked No. 9 in the latest BCS standings with a 7-1 record. The Alabama Crimson Tide will take the field surrounded by friendlies in the No. 3 slot with an unblemished 8-0 record. When the two teams leave at the end of the game, the SEC West should be decided and the BCS waters should be a little less muddy.
Don’t think the players are jacked up for Saturday afternoon’s showdown in Tuscaloosa between LSU and Alabama? Tigers linebacker Perry Riley summed up his perspective like this: “The national championship game, the SEC championship game, and a bowl game are not as important as this game. To get to any of those games at the end of the year, we have to win this game.”
The players get it. Every bettor and their brother also knows Saturday’s winner will surely advance to the SEC championship game next month, which in all likelihood is going to be a play-in game with Florida to see which school goes to the BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena.
Understanding the importance of this game is key to handicapping the motivation of the players involved, but it says only a little about which team will cover the spread. Judging by consensus behavior, the public likes the underdog Tigers to steal the cash at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday.
No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama (-7½, 38)
Saturday – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Oddsmakers opened the Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-3 ATS) as 9.5-point chalk earlier in the week, but bettors jumped all over the Tigers (7-1, 4-4 ATS) at that price. Through Tuesday night, about 60% of plays on the spread had come in on LSU, forcing every sportsbook under the sun to adjust the spread. The Tigers are getting 7.5 points from most outlets, although LSU +8 and +8.5 are still floating around both in Vegas and offshore.
Bettors are wary of laying down money on Alabama because of the recent play of quarterback Greg McElroy. After starting the season well, McElroy has struggled in recent weeks, most notably in the Tide’s 12-10 shading of Tennessee (+14) on October 24. McElroy went 18-of-29, but managed only 120 yards passing on the day. If not for four field goals from kicker Leigh Tiffin, Alabama wouldn’t have gotten past the Volunteers.
The good news for Tide backers is the team has had an extra week to prepare for the Tigers, who ripped Tulane 42-0 as 36.5-point home favorites in a cupcake game last week. The cover on the betting odds board lifted Louisiana State to 3-1 against the number (3-1 SU) in its last four contests, with the only blemish coming in its 13-3 loss against Florida (-9.5) on October 10.
That game is also a reason bettors are putting their money on the Tigers. The Tide have some reasonably tough wins against Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and Mississippi, but only one of those teams (the Hokies) remain in the top 25 in the polls. LSU didn’t exactly move the ball against Florida, but it did do a good job of slowing down Tim Tebow and the Gators’ offense. That bodes well for the Tigers’ ability to keep the Tide within striking distance on Saturday afternoon.
The schools sport two of the country’s toughest defenses, and that along with some recent trends makes the under the sharp play on the total. LSU is seventh in the nation in scoring defense (12.1 points per game) heading into Saturday, while Alabama is fourth overall (11.4 PPG). The Tide are also fourth in total defense (240.9 YPG) and second against the run (64.9 YPG).
Alabama played under the 41.5-point total set by oddsmakers for its battle with Tennessee in Week 8. That was the Tide’s fourth under in five games, and their seventh under in their last eight contests in SEC play. 2-6 O/U on the season, the Tigers took home their fourth consecutive under in their waxing of the Green Wave last Saturday (45.5), and have played under in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog.
John Parker Wilson’s 1-yard touchdown dive in overtime lifted Alabama (-3) past Louisiana State 27-21 at Tiger Stadium when the teams met last season. The victory was the first against the Tigers in six years for the Tide, who continued a trend favoring LSU on Saturday: The road team is 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups between the SEC West rivals.
