Wal's College Football Week #10

[wal66]

The last two weeks haven’t gone as I would have hoped. Pretty much breaking even after juice for the two weeks, Need to fine tune things and make a push towards down the stretch.

These are the games the computer has selected as leans. I will research these games and have the plays a little later in the week,


COMPUTER LEANS:

Bowling Green
Boise St.
Maryland
West Virginia
Texas A&M
Missouri
SMU
Duke
LSU
Kent St.
Oregon
Washington
Arkansas St.
UL Monroe
Middle Tennessee St.
Utah
Vanderbilt
FSU
Houston
San Jose St.

[HoulihansTX]

You need to start playing some O/U. Those lines are extremely weak in CFB. I'm hitting 80% on O/U alone.

[wal66]

I know Houl's. The problem is there might be one guy out there that is worse at totals than I am. One is a stretch though cause I am absolutley horrible. I do however think there may not be a total the rest of the season that FSU won't destroy. They are scoring now and still can't stop the opponents from scoring either.

[HoulihansTX]

I know Houl's. The problem is there might be one guy out there that is worse at totals than I am. One is a stretch though cause I am absolutley horrible. I do however think there may not be a total the rest of the season that FSU won't destroy. They are scoring now and still can't stop the opponents from scoring either.

Very true, but they are going to get extremely high lines. Idaho and Texas A&M get softer lines, as their games go way OVER.

The SEC is an UNDER waiting to happen.

I usually find the O/U's I like, then just pick the ones with the softest lines

[BigdaddyQH]

A&M is a good play. They were only -1 on the lead line. We jumped all over that. I have seen -5 now. Anything under 7 should be solid. A&M is plaing for bowl eligability, and Colorado has had one good game this year. A loss eliminates Colorado from Bowl consideration. The Big 12 North has been a total disaster this season. I see no reason why anything should change.

Washington really sucks when they play in Pasadena. UCLA basically ownes them there. UCLA gave Oregon State all it could handle in Corvallas last week. I think UCLA makes it's move towards bowl eligability starting on Saturday against Washington. The line is only 3.5-4. Not enough points to take Washington.

I see that you are considering 3 ACC games. I would not touch an ACC game for the rest of the season. That Conferece is so flakey that anything could happen. GL this week. We are slowing down our action. We will probably middle a play or two. We have attained our financial goals. Now we try and make enough money to cover the post season.

[wal66]

Game #1

Tuesday November 3, 2009
7:00 PM
Bowling Green @ Buffalo


Records:
Bowling Green 3-5 (3-5 ATS) 2-2 on the road
Buffalo 3-5 (4-4 ATS) 2-2 at home

Trends:
Bowling Green is 9-2 ATS in last 11 road games
Bowling Green is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Buffalo is 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Under is 9-1 in Bowling Green’s last 10 games as an underdog

Head to Head:
Bowling Green is 4-2 SU in last 6 meetings
Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in those meetings
Buffalo won last year and covered as a 4.5 favorite

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played and lost to Central Michigan.
Central Michigan 24 Bowling Green 10
Central Michigan 20 Buffalo 13

Offense:
Bowling Green averages 24.3 ppg on the road
Buffalo averages 25.3 ppg at home (note one game was against Gardner Webb and they scored 40 points)

Defense:
Bowling Green allows an average of 32.8 ppg on the road
Buffalo allows an average of 23.5 ppg at home

My Take:
Probably a game I or anyone else would be better off staying away from but obviously won’t. It has decent degenerate value pitting two equally bad teams against one another in a situation that would normally never get any attention what so ever. It’s mid-week and it’s televised therefore action will be had.
Seriously when I first saw this game I figured it would be a complete pass but then I ran the numbers from the program and I discovered at least on paper according to the program there was significant value here with Bowling Green. Vegas opened this game up as Buffalo -3.5 which I would have automatically assumed to be correct. After running the program though it turns out that according to the data Bowling Green should actually be favored here by 3.5. I compared the numbers from each of their combined schedules and Bowling Green has actually player the tougher opponents as they hold a 4.9 edge in that category. Considering that neither team has performed well and are equal in many aspects of their seasons I am willing to side with the program here and hope it gets my week off on a good note.

Program:
Computer says Bowling Green should be a 3.5 favorite so that gives us 7 points f value here.

Play:

Bowling Green +3.5* (may have a little ML but that’s not posted)

[ackem19]

glad to see i'm with you on Bowling Green. Good Luck.

[wal66]

A&M is a good play. They were only -1 on the lead line. We jumped all over that. I have seen -5 now. Anything under 7 should be solid. A&M is plaing for bowl eligability, and Colorado has had one good game this year. A loss eliminates Colorado from Bowl consideration. The Big 12 North has been a total disaster this season. I see no reason why anything should change.

Washington really sucks when they play in Pasadena. UCLA basically ownes them there. UCLA gave Oregon State all it could handle in Corvallas last week. I think UCLA makes it's move towards bowl eligability starting on Saturday against Washington. The line is only 3.5-4. Not enough points to take Washington.

I see that you are considering 3 ACC games. I would not touch an ACC game for the rest of the season. That Conferece is so flakey that anything could happen. GL this week. We are slowing down our action. We will probably middle a play or two. We have attained our financial goals. Now we try and make enough money to cover the post season.

QH.......I don't much care for ACC either and there is a chance I won't end up having any plays from that conference. I just have them listed as potential because according to the program data there is value in the lines and qualifies for further inspection. I just don't have the time to cap every games and I will ultimately miss some because the program doesn't give any value to the line. You are right about the ACC though atleast from my perspective there is way too much unpredictablity.

You are also right about UCLA and I don't yet know if there will be a play on that game or not. Haven't begun capping it yet.

Always appreciate the feedback.

[jds07v]

wal i am all over the fsu overs. cashed steadily since opening game. Ponder could end up as ACC POY. Defense is equally bad. this should be higher scoring than the clemson / miami game. Anything around 60 i'm on

[HoulihansTX]

Play: Bowling Green +3.5* (may have a little ML but that’s not posted)

Wall dont bet the spread here.. Just take the OVER. I know you did your reasearch, and your computer model has helped you throughout the weeks. Nevertheless, this is a matchup of two horrible teams. They are bad even when compared to other teams within their conference. It is impossible to cap a matchup of two bad teams. Neither one of these teams Strengths is negated, by the opponents strength.

A rule of thumb: Take the points in a matchup of equally horrific teams.

But Bowling G. is on the road, and not receiving a lot of points.

Take the OVER, and count the money later.

[jds07v]

yes TX the rule of taking the points worked yesterday with the rams. yes, i was the degenerate who bet on the rams and lions

[HoulihansTX]

yes TX the rule of taking the points worked yesterday with the rams. yes, i was the degenerate who bet on the rams and lions

yep you are a Degen for that play, but I play TV games on weekdays. So we are on the same boat.

Stephen Jack won that game by himself. I saw parts of it, and looked as if the team with the best single player won the game. Kinda of like a basketball game.

Congrats on winning the Degen Play of the Week.

[jds07v]

woo i am honored. i usually play the weekday games, play them very small though. just basically as a test to see if my methods work. can usually find a good edge. I hate hate hate playing mac games but i too like bgsu here

[aekdb1130]

RLM on the Houston game?

[jds07v]

yup 93% on houston but a point and a half the other way.

[aekdb1130]

Houston will destroy Tulsa this weekend.. I'll be at the game cheering for Tulsa but my money's on Houston -2.5. Tulsa is not capable of scoring more than 40 points against them..

[jds07v]

I have seen nothing from your golden hurricane to make me bet on them. if you haven't already booked it, can probably get it at 1.5

[Cougar Bait]

Duke and LSU are on my list of early leans...also am giving some serious consideration to Oklahoma, Kansas State, ECU...GL this week Wal.

[jds07v]

duke at +7 was a lean, waited til it got to 8.5 now its a play. Also on OU. GL cougar

[wal66]

Game #2

Saturday November 7, 2009
3:30 PM
Oregon @ Stanford


Records:
Oregon 7-1 (6-2 ATS) 2-1 on the road
Stanford 5-3 (5-3 ATS) 4-0 at home

Trends:
Stanford is 10-1 ATS in last 11 home games
Stanford is 7-3 ATS in last 10 conference games
Over is 10-2-2 in Oregon’s last 14 games as a favorite
Over is 9-2 in Stanford’s last 11 games as an underdog

Head to Head:
Oregon is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. Oregon has won 7 straight in series but Stanford covered last year as a 14 point underdog.

Common Opponents:
Oregon 43 Washington 19
Washington 14 Stanford 34
California 3 Oregon 42
Stanford 16 California 37
Oregon 52 Washington St 6
Stanford 39 Washington St 13

Offense:
Oregon averages 25 ppg on the road
Stanford averages 33.3 ppg at home

Defense:
Oregon allows an average of 16 ppg on the road
Stanford allows an average of 15.3 ppg at home

My Take:
Even when Stanford is a bad team they tend to step it up at home. Oregon has only had 3 road games all season so just how good of a road team they are can be debated. Everyone saw what Oregon did last week at home against USC. This Ducks team completely dominated what everyone assumed was another Pac 10 champion in the Trojans. In fact Oregon has pretty much dominated everyone since the season opening loss at Boise St. I won’t guarantee another dominate performance this week but I full y expect the Ducks to handle their business as they have been every week since the opener. They have a dynamic offense and are rolling in full steam ahead mode. Stanford might manage to put up a good fight early but I expect this game to be one of the easier covers on the board by games end.

Program:
Oregon by 12 so we have plenty of value at this time. Regardless of line movement in this one I like Oregon better than the program suggest.



Play:

Oregon -5.5**** (1st 4 unit play all season)

[HoulihansTX]

I like Stanford. Straight up and down situational play. Letdown spot. Remember computers do not factor in subjective analysis.

But on to important business. When are we getting another vid of some Florida chicks? Remember get some azz shots for me.

[AdaBarber]

Game #1

Tuesday November 3, 2009
7:00 PM
Bowling Green @ Buffalo


Records:
Bowling Green 3-5 (3-5 ATS) 2-2 on the road
Buffalo 3-5 (4-4 ATS) 2-2 at home

Trends:
Bowling Green is 9-2 ATS in last 11 road games
Bowling Green is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Buffalo is 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Under is 9-1 in Bowling Green’s last 10 games as an underdog

Head to Head:
Bowling Green is 4-2 SU in last 6 meetings
Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in those meetings
Buffalo won last year and covered as a 4.5 favorite

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played and lost to Central Michigan.
Central Michigan 24 Bowling Green 10
Central Michigan 20 Buffalo 13

Offense:
Bowling Green averages 24.3 ppg on the road
Buffalo averages 25.3 ppg at home (note one game was against Gardner Webb and they scored 40 points)

Defense:
Bowling Green allows an average of 32.8 ppg on the road
Buffalo allows an average of 23.5 ppg at home

My Take:
Probably a game I or anyone else would be better off staying away from but obviously won’t. It has decent degenerate value pitting two equally bad teams against one another in a situation that would normally never get any attention what so ever. It’s mid-week and it’s televised therefore action will be had.
Seriously when I first saw this game I figured it would be a complete pass but then I ran the numbers from the program and I discovered at least on paper according to the program there was significant value here with Bowling Green. Vegas opened this game up as Buffalo -3.5 which I would have automatically assumed to be correct. After running the program though it turns out that according to the data Bowling Green should actually be favored here by 3.5. I compared the numbers from each of their combined schedules and Bowling Green has actually player the tougher opponents as they hold a 4.9 edge in that category. Considering that neither team has performed well and are equal in many aspects of their seasons I am willing to side with the program here and hope it gets my week off on a good note.

Program:
Computer says Bowling Green should be a 3.5 favorite so that gives us 7 points f value here.

Play:

Bowling Green +3.5* (may have a little ML but that’s not posted)

I agree but I can't waste my money on these two shitty teams! Good luck.

[AdaBarber]

Game #2

Saturday November 7, 2009
3:30 PM
Oregon @ Stanford


Records:
Oregon 7-1 (6-2 ATS) 2-1 on the road
Stanford 5-3 (5-3 ATS) 4-0 at home

Trends:
Stanford is 10-1 ATS in last 11 home games
Stanford is 7-3 ATS in last 10 conference games
Over is 10-2-2 in Oregon’s last 14 games as a favorite
Over is 9-2 in Stanford’s last 11 games as an underdog

Head to Head:
Oregon is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. Oregon has won 7 straight in series but Stanford covered last year as a 14 point underdog.

Common Opponents:
Oregon 43 Washington 19
Washington 14 Stanford 34
California 3 Oregon 42
Stanford 16 California 37
Oregon 52 Washington St 6
Stanford 39 Washington St 13

Offense:
Oregon averages 25 ppg on the road
Stanford averages 33.3 ppg at home

Defense:
Oregon allows an average of 16 ppg on the road
Stanford allows an average of 15.3 ppg at home

My Take:
Even when Stanford is a bad team they tend to step it up at home. Oregon has only had 3 road games all season so just how good of a road team they are can be debated. Everyone saw what Oregon did last week at home against USC. This Ducks team completely dominated what everyone assumed was another Pac 10 champion in the Trojans. In fact Oregon has pretty much dominated everyone since the season opening loss at Boise St. I won’t guarantee another dominate performance this week but I full y expect the Ducks to handle their business as they have been every week since the opener. They have a dynamic offense and are rolling in full steam ahead mode. Stanford might manage to put up a good fight early but I expect this game to be one of the easier covers on the board by games end.

Program:
Oregon by 12 so we have plenty of value at this time. Regardless of line movement in this one I like Oregon better than the program suggest.



Play:

Oregon -5.5**** (1st 4 unit play all season)

I booked this as well. Got it at -5. It lasted a hot minute because two minutes later it was back at -5.5. I like them to win by 10. I don't see a let down because of their possible chance of maybe playing for the championship. They have already had their let down in the first game of the season. No one has been playing better than them.

[wal66]

Ada, I would maybe have had a play on tonight but not have posted it had it not qualified and been supported through research. I agree they are both crappy teams and Houlihan's is most likely on much more stable ground playing the total or nothing but of all the weeknight games this week this is the one I was able to find the best edge in.

Good luck to all this week.

I am still working on a couple more games. Not sure how many there will be this week.

[Superman455]

GL on your picks

[wal66]

Game #3

Saturday November 7, 2009
4:00 PM
UL Monroe @ North Texas

Records:
UL Monroe 4-4 (5-3 ATS) 1-4 on the road
North Texas 2-6 (4-4 ATS) 1-3 at home

Trends:
UL Monroe is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall
Over is 7-3 in UL Monroe’s last 10 games overall
Over is 10-1 in North Texas’ last 11 home games
Home team is 6-2 ATS in last 8 meetings

Head To Head:
UL Monroe is 6-4 SU and ATS in last 10 meetings. UL Monroe won last year 35-23 at home but failed to cover the 16

Common Opponents:
UL Monroe 21 Troy 42
North Texas 26 Troy 56
UL Monroe 27 Florida Atlantic 25
Florida Atlantic 44 North Texas 40

Offense:
UL Monroe average 19 ppg on the road. Keep in mind that 3 of those road games were against Texas, Arizona St and Kentucky, so it’s not like they faced weak defenses out there.
North Texas averages 39.8 ppg at home. Keep in mind they scored 68 last week against lowly Western Kentucky to help boost that average.

Defense:
UL Monroe allows an average of 40 ppg on the road. Once again you have to consider who they have played on the road.
North Texas allows an average of 40-3 ppg at home. They allowed Western Kentucky to score 49 last week.

My Take:
To be honest I wouldn’t come near this game. The only reason I am playing it is because the program suggested UL Monroe was such a huge favorite over the opening line. North Texas isn’t a good team and why they are favored in this spot does cause me some concern. I initially thought it was because of the blowout win last week but then I considered who even knew about the game because they were playing Western Kentucky after all. So the line is puzzling and they are both crap teams and I should stay as far away as possible, but I’m an idiot and do stupid things sometimes. This, even if I win is a stupid thing probably. One thing of note that should make you stay away from this game if you weren’t already is that Junior QB Trey Revell broke his thumb against Arky St and Redshirt freshman Cody Wells has been under center since and the team has lost 2 straight since this occurred.

Program:
UL Monroe by 11.5 and the line initially opened as a pick and has sense moved to North Texas -1 so we have significant value based on the program.

Play:

UL Monroe ML* (my site doesn’t offer ML’s till they are -1.5 so it’s ML if it crosses that mark or points if it doesn’t)

[BigdaddyQH]

"Stanford 16 California 37"

Wal, Stanford has not played Cal yet. That was last year's score, which has nothing to do with this year.

[wal66]

Game #4
Saturday November 7, 2009
2:00 PM
Baylor @ Missouri

Records:
Baylor 3-5 (4-4 ATS) 1-2 on the road
Missouri 5-3 (4-4 ATS) 2-2 at home

Trends:
Baylor is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games
Baylor is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall
Under is 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 home games

Head to Head:
Missouri is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in last 9 meetings.

Common Opponents:
Nebraska 20 Baylor 10
Nebraska 27 Missouri 12
Oklahoma St 34 Baylor 7
Missouri 17 Oklahoma St 33

Offense:
Baylor averages 13.7 ppg on the road
Missouri averages 23.5 ppg at home

Defense:
Baylor allows an average of 26 ppg on the road
Missouri allows an average of 25 ppg at home

My Take:
I’m not real happy with myself this week. It feels like every one of my games is almost forced. While I can support what my program has suggested I can’t feel comfortable with any of them. Baylor isn’t a good team and here I am backing them. I am backing them against a team that not only owns them but could go off on offense at any time. Missouri could go off but they haven’t shown it at all this season with the exception of the Furman game. I am crossing my fingers and hoping against hope that the scoring stays low and the mistakes pile up and this keeps it within the number for Baylor.

Program:
Missouri by 9 so we have value with a play on Baylor.

Play:

Baylor +17* (I expect this game to rise to at least 17 so I am waiting or I will buy the hook)

[wal66]

"Stanford 16 California 37"

Wal, Stanford has not played Cal yet. That was last year's score, which has nothing to do with this year.

QH............good catch. I scrolled too far down on previous games played. You are absolutley correct it was a game played last November and I errored.

It all matters little though as I am 100% behind this game regardless of the mistake I made there. Oregon is playing dominate football right now and should they not cover this line it won't be due to something I evaluated wrong statistically. If they don't cover this game by an easy margin it will have more to do with emotion from Stanford stepping it up or Oregon taking it in stride.

[wal66]

Game #1

Tuesday November 3, 2009
7:00 PM
Bowling Green @ Buffalo


Records:
Bowling Green 3-5 (3-5 ATS) 2-2 on the road
Buffalo 3-5 (4-4 ATS) 2-2 at home

Trends:
Bowling Green is 9-2 ATS in last 11 road games
Bowling Green is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Buffalo is 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Under is 9-1 in Bowling Green’s last 10 games as an underdog

Head to Head:
Bowling Green is 4-2 SU in last 6 meetings
Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in those meetings
Buffalo won last year and covered as a 4.5 favorite

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played and lost to Central Michigan.
Central Michigan 24 Bowling Green 10
Central Michigan 20 Buffalo 13

Offense:
Bowling Green averages 24.3 ppg on the road
Buffalo averages 25.3 ppg at home (note one game was against Gardner Webb and they scored 40 points)

Defense:
Bowling Green allows an average of 32.8 ppg on the road
Buffalo allows an average of 23.5 ppg at home

My Take:
Probably a game I or anyone else would be better off staying away from but obviously won’t. It has decent degenerate value pitting two equally bad teams against one another in a situation that would normally never get any attention what so ever. It’s mid-week and it’s televised therefore action will be had.
Seriously when I first saw this game I figured it would be a complete pass but then I ran the numbers from the program and I discovered at least on paper according to the program there was significant value here with Bowling Green. Vegas opened this game up as Buffalo -3.5 which I would have automatically assumed to be correct. After running the program though it turns out that according to the data Bowling Green should actually be favored here by 3.5. I compared the numbers from each of their combined schedules and Bowling Green has actually player the tougher opponents as they hold a 4.9 edge in that category. Considering that neither team has performed well and are equal in many aspects of their seasons I am willing to side with the program here and hope it gets my week off on a good note.

Program:
Computer says Bowling Green should be a 3.5 favorite so that gives us 7 points f value here.

Play:

Bowling Green +3.5* (may have a little ML but that’s not posted)

[wal66]

Take note people. This was an example of respecting your fellow posters and still jinxing the game.

[HoulihansTX]

Congrats on your win. A Degenerate win might I add. BG looked like complete shit the whole game, but Buffalo was worse. I hope you get that those bottom-feeder MAC teams aren't worth betting on. Neither one of those teams can win with getting a good amount of the breaks, and lucky bounces.

We have started with some momentum into the weekend. Now you just need to drop Oregon -5.5. Haha

[wal66]

It's up to 7 so I'm glad I got it when I did.

[ohiostate]

gj wal...

[TheBetBuysDanK]

I sure wish I had got it at 5.5, wal. I'm taking it for 3 units even at 7. I love your work, keep up the stellar job!