Current line is Virginia -7.
Duke (3-1-1 ATS) opened with a bad loss at home to Richmond. The win at Army (35-19) is deceiving as it was very close heading into the 4th quarter when Duke got to pick 6's in the last two minutes. The loss at Kansas was expected. But is Duke now playing with confidence after winning 3 out of 4 with only a "good loss" to Va. Tech mixed in? The win at NC St. was no joke as the Devils put up over 500 yards of offense - almost all through the air. Coming off a bye week, they beat Maryland by 4 at home which was a push for most. This was a wet track which MD only put up 249 total yards, 67 of which came on a screen pass TD. 371 yards passing for Duke. If they want to be bowl eligible, they better win soon with GT and Miami still on the schedule.
Virginia (4-2 ATS) started with a bad loss at home to William & Mary (7 turnovers). TCU crushed them up 30-0 until two 4th quarter TDs by UVA in the last 4 minutes. Virginia then covered 4 in a row before losing to GT (34-9) in driving rain. UVA has not given up more than 190 passing yards all season, which I think is huge. But they have not played a true passing offense yet. Duke is averaging 348 passing in the last 5 games. Virginia is 1-3 at home.
Duke beat UVA last year 31-3 aided by 6 Virginia turnovers. Sewell didn’t play and UVA actually out-gained them by 50 yards. I don’t see much of a home field advantage for the Cavs and it’s not that far of a road trip for the Dukies. Turnovers seem to be the deciding factor. Only a slight chance of rain in the forecast. About 70% of the public is on Duke which scares me, but I think the proper play is to take the points especially if it goes above 7. This is not your father’s Duke team.
Thoughts?
Duke (3-1-1 ATS) opened with a bad loss at home to Richmond. The win at Army (35-19) is deceiving as it was very close heading into the 4th quarter when Duke got to pick 6's in the last two minutes. The loss at Kansas was expected. But is Duke now playing with confidence after winning 3 out of 4 with only a "good loss" to Va. Tech mixed in? The win at NC St. was no joke as the Devils put up over 500 yards of offense - almost all through the air. Coming off a bye week, they beat Maryland by 4 at home which was a push for most. This was a wet track which MD only put up 249 total yards, 67 of which came on a screen pass TD. 371 yards passing for Duke. If they want to be bowl eligible, they better win soon with GT and Miami still on the schedule.
Virginia (4-2 ATS) started with a bad loss at home to William & Mary (7 turnovers). TCU crushed them up 30-0 until two 4th quarter TDs by UVA in the last 4 minutes. Virginia then covered 4 in a row before losing to GT (34-9) in driving rain. UVA has not given up more than 190 passing yards all season, which I think is huge. But they have not played a true passing offense yet. Duke is averaging 348 passing in the last 5 games. Virginia is 1-3 at home.
Duke beat UVA last year 31-3 aided by 6 Virginia turnovers. Sewell didn’t play and UVA actually out-gained them by 50 yards. I don’t see much of a home field advantage for the Cavs and it’s not that far of a road trip for the Dukies. Turnovers seem to be the deciding factor. Only a slight chance of rain in the forecast. About 70% of the public is on Duke which scares me, but I think the proper play is to take the points especially if it goes above 7. This is not your father’s Duke team.
Thoughts?