Wal's College Football Week #9

[Cougar Bait]

You make up voices? Interesting.

[wal66]

When I read some posters I do. I keep thinking Geppetto (look it up) when I read Crush. Zboiz is easy he's a coonass. Abe he's Walter Matthau.

[LINE-crush-ER]

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/E1Rod?ref=pro

here you go ,
Check out my photos also

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/album.php?aid=2010047&id=135001462

dont really have any of myself though , add the following content (file) to the top link
and a (7) to the second link
figured it would stop the dumb asses that dont read threads and just make stupid comments from visiting my page

[LINE-crush-ER]

well hell that didnt work so well . the link is still valid should of checked it first prior to doing so
how can i edit that from being valid

[wal66]

Saturday October 31, 2009
12:00 PM
Cincinnati @ Syracuse


Records:
Cincinnati 7-0 (5-2 ATS) 4-0 on the road
Syracuse 3-4 (4-3 ATS) 3-3 at home

Trends:
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in last 8 conference games.
Cincinnati 6-2 ATS in last 8 games on turf.
Syracuse is 5-12 ATS in last 17 October games.

Head to Head:
Cincinnati is 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in last 9 meetings.
Cincinnati won 30-10 last year at home.
The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played South Florida. Cincinnati beat USF 34-17 at USF after Pike goes down and Zack Collaros rallies team. Syracuse lost to USF 34-20 at home.

Offense:
Cincinnati averages 36.4 ppg.
Syracuse averages 23.7 ppg.

Defense:
Cincinnati allows an average of 13.7 ppg.
Syracuse allows an average of 27.9 ppg.

My Take:
Without comparing the two teams schedule I automatically assumed Cincinnati had played the tougher schedule. With a big win on the road against a talented Oregon St team and a physical South Florida team I thought it was easy. Then I actually looked up the power ranking of the teams these two schools have played and the average ranking of the teams Syracuse has played is actually 3 points higher. So one could argue that Syracuse has played the tougher schedule of the two. I really like comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges though and what we have here is both teams have played South Florida. Cincy won playing the entire second half with the back-up quarterback and Syracuse lost at home. This to me speaks volumes. I do realize that Pike most likely won’t play but from what Collaros has done since being under center ain’t bad at all. Cincinnati also has a better than expected defense this year. I’ll take high scoring potential and solid defensive play any day of the week. I was going to make this my Play of the Week but we’ll keep it at a normal play just to be safe.

Program:
Cincinnati by 23.5 points. This gives us an 8 point value against current line.


Play:


Cincinnati -15.5* (I would buy the hook but honestly like it to 20 so I’ll risk it)

[ackem19]

love the homework, i'm actually a day behind and playing catch-up. I like some of your leans including Cincy, Navy, Michigan, Idaho and Ohio U. Looking forward to any analysis. I need to make up for my 4-6 week last week so BOL to us this week.

[DREEZY]

how does your program/model have Nevada -8.5????

[BIGTENMAN]

looks like we have to make a early play at these games
Illinois
cincy
oregon state
these lines are soing north big time against us they are all very strong leans wish I could have more time

last week oregon was our only early week pick bet but additionally we bet Tcu and Ga tech

[LINE-crush-ER]

hey
I made an account for my buddy
if a couple of post come late from Big ten man
they are actually mine
sorry Never logged out correctly
Cincy
illinois
oregon state
looks like we will be forced to make plays at these before they get out of hand
they are going north real fast
but honestly this is why I dont have a internet account locals will have the lines nearer the post when they start
taking bets in tuesday evening

[LINE-crush-ER]

correction
Northern Illinois
not Illinois

[khaden]

Wal and crusher---your insight and countless hours of work is very much appreciated!!!

just locked in ECU-bought it down to 2.5 just for some added insurance--doesn't sound like I'll need it. You guys are chewin the shit out of every possible angle!!! Well done!

Once again thanks

[LINE-crush-ER]

Wal and crusher---your insight and countless hours of work is very much appreciated!!!

just locked in ECU-bought it down to 2.5 just for some added insurance--doesn't sound like I'll need it. You guys are chewin the shit out of every possible angle!!! Well done!

Once again thanks

should of left it at 3 or bought it to 2
thats wasting money
always buy points to prevent a loss
dont by points to create a win
its hard enough to pick these

[pinnacle212]

What do you know about coonass. lol

[LINE-crush-ER]

will add I had Philly for a good bit tonight and had every though in the world that
Doubling it if win on east carolina

Im off this play right now

sorry this is so important to me why I dont have an internet account

Its very important not to rush into betting until im certain

I have consistanly won not having online betting accounts

although I was told this weekend shit you not that I needed to lose sometime here soon or i needed to finda nother guy

I loose a couple here and there like yesterday I had vikings for a small amount (rude to talk about Winnings)

But tonight had a bunch because I liked it ijust bet the vikings because i knew iwould watch it

HERES THE PROBLEM
I have mentioned wally once prior
Memphis in home as a home dog on televsion
other than the css game with marshall that probable most of the team didnt even know that wasnt pay per view

Memphis played olemiss in the home opener and only trailed against them
17-7 at the END OF THE 3RD QUARTER
giving up 28 points in the 4th
as you know thats when depth begins to show
yes first game of the year
I assure you I ll make a play at this I like it enough to make entertainmnet value bet
But
ESPN television is enough to scare me off making this a pick
FYI
East carolina played north carolina on espn 2 and Marshall on cbs (BUT WON)
RULE OF THUMB I highly consider the Home dog when its a small school in its first national televised game ofthe year
I promise though after commenting I want bet against you but had it not been for those earlier comments I porbalble would have memphis

I just dont get to these games unitl day of or night before ,as i did during the philly game for this one
BOL

[khaden]

didn't you post earlier that Memphis is a team you guys look to bet against every week, and you expect the line to jump to as high as -6 by game time?

[LINE-crush-ER]

adding I get so involved trying not to forget what i am trying to say because my mind works so much faster than these little hands

guys that you want ever get a post that half makes since from me

In addition
first game of the year they played ole miss on espn on televison those stats above

show what i was trying to say

memphis now play their first game on televison national television in conference

and in their minds have a shot at winning
once you add that recipe with being at home

including being a dog

Tulsa over boise (covered big time )
Utepp over Tulsa (covered and won out right )
here i have written enough

http://lsufootball.net/archives/tvschedule-2009.htm

hey sorry there is just so much information in my head
after this thread i have decided I am getting a tape recorder in the morining
and some type or voice converter for my notes
all of the guys were definitely on east carolina its just my job to dis -credit their pick
thats what i do , if i cant or couldnt have and really this is an exception i havent done anyting here but
showed a typical small time school playing on televison
this wouldnt work with a top 100 team

[LINE-crush-ER]

didn't you post earlier that Memphis is a team you guys look to bet against every week, and you expect the line to jump to as high as -6 by game time?

sorry you havent followed me enough to know
I strongly suggest not betting unless it costs you points that you cant buy back
unitl the a few hours before game time
You can find history of our process
but just agreeing ona game that we like is only the first stages to our selections
once a game has been selected atleast one guys in this case
all guys like this team prior to me making my slections
I woukld then try to discredit this team
hey man im killing this thread
hit me in mine
line crusher week 9 notes thread
ill give you a walk throught of what we do but I am being rude here

[joeygats]

Wal and crusher---your insight and countless hours of work is very much appreciated!!!

just locked in ECU-bought it down to 2.5 just for some added insurance--doesn't sound like I'll need it. You guys are chewin the shit out of every possible angle!!! Well done!

Once again thanks

man couldnt say it better myself. wal u seriously need to join team linecrusher cause with all yous workin all the angles could be millionairs.

[LINE-crush-ER]

didn't you post earlier that Memphis is a team you guys look to bet against every week, and you expect the line to jump to as high as -6 by game time?

hey I dont have a thread prepared for this game
so ill continue my progress here forthis game
(memphis ) east carolina
sorry i just dont have the time to edit or even slow down to press the back space button

been doing so much since the last post

i was able to make much progress in my do not write on this thread
really just a bunch of non sense really
memphis qb bass is definitely missed previously I had mistaken that last weeks loss was new qb hodges (memphis) received his first start
it now seems obvious that bass was definitely better
east carolina goes into memphis with 3 losses and a win in away games but in actual 1-1 (non conference games Nc, and wv)
east carolina left enterd half time trailing by one point to west virginia
east carolina is 3-1 in conference
and memphis is 1-3 in conference
this should give the win clearly here
its a matter of putting credibility to the points you are giving up
I think i really would liked you of having bought that full point rather than 1/2
in a strategy that i dont use unless i have too
i would already of pulled off this game at this point
mephis has one win that really throws me off of east carolina
they beat utepp
and then in turn utepp beat houston
which brought to the earlier points about the tv games blah blah stuff
but im digging and grasping here
but this is tru in so many ways you have to look how a team plays the next week after playing a team
in many ways after playing a great competitor or really someone that gave you some work or beat your tail
it should make you better for your next contest
as teams like alabama plays , virginia tech does
they really prepare you for for your next challenge and makes the next seem like a cake walk
not that want be the case here \
but it seems as though there is that trend with east carolina that memphis does not propose for thme self
in fact almost all challengers dont seem up for the challenge after playing memphis
but this ran straight into a wall
heres what i came up with
marshall won at memphis then imediately lost to eastern carolina
ucf lost at east carolina and imediately beat memphis the game after

here it seems after ucf/marshall once playing the first in turn
they indeed lost their very next game

I know that in both cases it happend that memphis recieved the two losses

but finally heres the kicker
something so simple
marshall lost to east carolina at home
marshall went into memphis and won
playing these games A succession without a break
east carolina should be 13 points better

[LINE-crush-ER]

i wanted to validate that pick
after so many strategies and about 4 hours
all ive got is
East Carolina is better in 5 out of 6 categories in strategy I use
but this one is way down the line in a procedures I would use in order
In fact its not much higher than a coin toss
but never the less they are entirely favored in that strategy
OFFENSE
East carolina averages 329 total yards
agains the 405 allowed by memphis (EM1)
east carolina averages 131 yards rushing
memphis allows on average 186 (em2)
em total yards passing pg 198
memphis allows 218 (em3)
DEFENSE
memphis total yards per game average 362
em allows 352 (em4)
memphis rushing yards pg average 141
em rushing yards allowed pg 111 (em 5)
MEMPHIS yards passing ppg on average 220
em passing yards on average allowed per game 244 (mem1)

I would say being that east carolina defense seems to be much better '
and if possible their offense doenst seem to be as bad
they also lead in two other categories in that same strategy
points scored 25 em 21 mem
points allowed 23 em 29 mem
now these are all on average
they both have played 4 in confernece games
having exact opposite records at 3-1 and 1-3 in favor of em
having both played UCF and Marshall
where in fact
Marshall lost to EM at home
and won at Memphis
I liKe Em by at least 3 points for that fact alone
taking in the fact em leads the category in points allowed by 6 points
EM should be the pick here

[LINE-crush-ER]

em should be ec sorry guys
eastern

[LINE-crush-ER]

something I was able to come up with
East Carolina definitley show that they are a stronger team in 4th quarter Play

I value this considerably
although EM did offer up 7 points to ucf , those were scored as the last points in game
sparingly I will not consider those as points scored UCF trailed 19-7 with moments left in the game


going back four games for EC (sorry) they have only allowed 7 points in the fourth quarter
where in fact they followed it up with an assuming kick return for a touchdown

this team is a battler and should out play Memphis in the 4th quarter
So all that tells me is dont bet the second half over
if you like the over here get for first half

NOW
memphis with out giving you all the stats (numbers)
Memphis has been outscored 4 of the last 4 games considerablly

providing some concrete evidence that they in fact a much weaker team in this conference

of the 4 games when trailing , Memphis mustard up a scoring drive to get back in the game

puting points up against Marshall late in the game

and also southern Miss , this actually in some manner put the memphis team back in action for a late minute comeback

yet on the the ascending opponents drive both were allowed points

Memphis DEFENSE when asked to step up , they could not

You add that to a pretty good East carolina team ofr that conference

East Carolina can cover this line if trailing by less than three entering the fouth quarter

I will try to retreive some type of concrete information that keeps memphis from leading going into the third

AGAIN SORRY ABOUT MY coulumns if I slow down to edit during the initial draft , Ill never get it all out

If I go back and edit it once it done , I would of never had time to get the information in the first place

please remember that statement always

I am quite capability of being an editor or providing well-to-do letters

I will try to make the text larger from now on it seems to be a little easier to follow

[wal66]

Saturday October 31, 2009
3:30 PM
Iowa St @ Texas A&M

Records:
Iowa St. 5-3 (5-2 TAS) 2-1 on the road
Texas A&M 4-3 (3-3-1 ATS) 3-1 at home

Trends:
Iowa St is 17-8 ATS in last 25 games on grass
Texas A&M is 2-5-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record

Head to Head:
Texas A&M is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in last 7 meetings. Texas A&M won last year 49-35 at Iowa St.

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played and lost to Kansas St. Iowa St lost 24-23 at home and Texas A&M lost 62-14 at K-State.

Offense:
Iowa St averages 24.3 ppg
Texas A&M averages 35.9 ppg

Defense:
Iowa St allows an average of 19.8 ppg
Texas A&M allows an average of 32.9 ppg

My Take:
When looking into the teams these two have played power rankings the opponents Iowa St has faced has the edge by the slimmest of margins. What I primarily focused on and what stands out to me is that they both played K-State and the difference in the scores from those 2 games. Admittedly I wasn’t able to see these games so I don’t know the circumstances that may have played a role in the games other than home and away. I tend to lean to a team that has played better against common foes. I was wrapping this game up and all ready to make my play when I realized I had forgot to check something very important. The injury status, good thing I remembered in time too. Iowa St has 2 key injuries that are reported as questionable for Saturday. QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson are both recovering from injuries and they need to be in the game in order for me to have any action on this game.

Program:
Iowa St by 2.5 so this allows for 10 points of value which is never ignored.
*** The program compares teams based on game performances and doesn’t recognize tangibles such as injuries, suspensions or any other abnormalities.

Play:

Pass until status of key players are updated.

[jackpot269]

Thanks for all this work wal it aways helps to see what everyone else likes and why !!!!

Thanks again !!!!!!!!!

[HoulihansTX]

Iowa St @ Texas A&M

These are two bad teams. Just take the points. There is no way to cap two bad teams. They have both been blown out, and lost games they should have won. Take the points, bro.

[wal66]

Saturday October 31, 2009
12:00 PM
Ohio U @ Ball St

Records:
Ohio U 5-3 (5-3 ATS) 3-1 on the road
Ball St 1-7 (3-5 ATS) 0-4 at home

Trends:
Ohio is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on grass
Ball St is 17-5 ATS when playing a team with a winning record
Ball St is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games overall

Head to Head:
Ball St is 8-2 SU. Ohio U is 6-3-1 ATS.
Ohio won last year 38-21 at home and have won the last 2 in a row

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played North Texas. Ohio won 31-30 at a neutral site. Ball St lost 20-10 at home.
Both teams have played Bowling Green. Ohio won 44-37 at Bowling Green. Ball St lost 31-17 at home.

Offense:
Ohio averages 25 ppg
Ball St averages 21 ppg

Defense:
Ohio allows an average of 21 ppg
Ball St allows an average of 30 ppg

My Take:
Seems like I can’t stay away from MAC games. I don’t really care for the conference except for those times when these smaller schools are undervalued against a larger school. I guess the gambler in me can’t resist the aspect of never knowing what you’ll get when these MAC teams get together.
I’ve compared the power rankings of the teams each school has faced this season and Ohio has the edge in that category. Ohio has certainly performed better and won against common opponents and that can’t be ignored. The program gives me an edge and when you really look at how Ball St has performed thus far this season it becomes pretty clear which way I am going here.

Program:
Ohio U by 15. I probably would have avoided this game had the opening line been 10 even with the additional value but at 7.5 I’ll give it a chance.


Play:



Ohio U -7* (buying the hook)

[mcbaseball10]

Pike still might play this weekend for Cincinnati


This is from collegefantasyfootballinsider.com


Cincinnati quarterback Tony Pike will have his cast modified on Monday in hopes that he will be able to play Saturday against Syracuse.

Pike sat out last week's win over Louisville, but we rank his chances of playing much higher than they were last week.

[wal66]

Yeah I read that. If he plays then better but if he doesn't I'm still comfortable with Collaros. It's more about their defense and Syracuse's nack for the turnovers.

Had I not seen Collaros play then I would have passed on this game with the staus of Pike still in question.

[BigdaddyQH]

Everyone is going down on Oregon, except the wise guys, who are just letting JoePub drop the line further and further. The line is down to 3 now. There is no question that if USC brings their A game to Eugene, they win. If they do not, they lose. I never wager on any USC game, but if I did, this would be a pass. It is very obvious that USC must bring their A game to win and have no chance if they do not bring it. Normally, that means a game that is not as close as some would think. USC either wins or loses by a TD or more.

[wal66]

Saturday October 31, 2009
8:00 PM
Texas @ Oklahoma St

Records:
Texas 7-0 (2-4-1 ATS) 2-0 on the road
Oklahoma St 6-1 (3-2-1 ATS) 4-1 at home

Trends:
Texas is 6-2 ATS in last 8 road games
Texas 2-5-1 ATS in last 8 games overall
Over is 16-7-1 in Texas’ last 24 road games
Over is 35-17 in Oklahoma St’s last 52 home games

Head to Head:
Texas is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played and beaten Missouri. Texas won 41-7 at Missouri and Oklahoma St won 33-17 at home

Offense:
Texas averages 41.9 ppg
Oklahoma St averages 37 ppg

Defense:
Texas allows an average of 13.7 ppg
Oklahoma St allows an average of 20 ppg

My Take:
I have tried to find a reason to play Oklahoma St in this game and there is just no evidence to support such a play. Texas leads in so many categories that I put into my analysis. Compare the teams both schools have played and Texas has performed better against better opponents. With all this staring me in the face I still have a gut feeling that Oklahoma St does something special this weekend. The feeling is telling me there is an upset in the air. I’m gonna take the points though, I mean I’m already going against everything that tells me I am wrong here.
I am in no way trying to convince anyone to follow any of my plays and especially one when I can’t give you any significant reason to do so.

Program:
Texas by 6.5 so I now have met my minimum requirement to consider a play since the line has climbed to 10.


Play:


Oklahoma St +10*

[mcbaseball10]

Yeah I read that. If he plays then better but if he doesn't I'm still comfortable with Collaros. It's more about their defense and Syracuse's nack for the turnovers. Had I not seen Collaros play then I would have passed on this game with the staus of Pike still in question.

Totally agree. Like it even more if he plays, but definitely a play for me regardless. The fact that he might play makes it even tougher for Cuse to gameplan with the two different styles of QB's.

[LINE-crush-ER]

HEY GUYS SOMETHING HERE IN THESE TWO

something I was able to come up with
East Carolina definitley show that they are a stronger team in 4th quarter Play

I value this considerably
although EM did offer up 7 points to ucf , those were scored as the last points in game
sparingly I will not consider those as points scored UCF trailed 19-7 with moments left in the game


going back four games for EC (sorry) they have only allowed 7 points in the fourth quarter
where in fact they followed it up with an assuming kick return for a touchdown

this team is a battler and should out play Memphis in the 4th quarter
So all that tells me is dont bet the second half over
if you like the over here get for first half

NOW
memphis with out giving you all the stats (numbers)
Memphis has been outscored 4 of the last 4 games considerablly

providing some concrete evidence that they in fact a much weaker team in this conference

of the 4 games when trailing , Memphis mustard up a scoring drive to get back in the game

puting points up against Marshall late in the game

and also southern Miss , this actually in some manner put the memphis team back in action for a late minute comeback

yet on the the ascending opponents drive both were allowed points

Memphis DEFENSE when asked to step up , they could not

You add that to a pretty good East carolina team ofr that conference

East Carolina can cover this line if trailing by less than three entering the fouth quarter

I will try to retreive some type of concrete information that keeps memphis from leading going into the third

AGAIN SORRY ABOUT MY coulumns if I slow down to edit during the initial draft , Ill never get it all out

If I go back and edit it once it done , I would of never had time to get the information in the first place

please remember that statement always

I am quite capability of being an editor or providing well-to-do letters

I will try to make the text larger from now on it seems to be a little easier to follow

[LINE-crush-ER]

[COLOR=#000000! important]adding
Ucf scored 7 points late in the game

those points werent factored in
1 it was late
2 it would had been factored , EC proves they are a much stronger in 4th quarter play
in points allowed and points scored
Ec has a high probability of keeping their lead if leading going into the 4th

they aslo show a high probability of out right winning the 4th quarter
wanted to assure you that a back door TD counts 7 points

and that is likely enough to be a loser tonight if should it happen
I am aware of that

Just was showing credibility to that statement

hope you dont mind me putting notes here

I really needed this challenge , glad I didnt let this team get away here

I would rather give it my all and lose

rather than cow down against a challenge[/COLOR]

[LINE-crush-ER]

EAST CAROLINA
ALTHOUGH my record stands much better for weekend games . thursday /friday games

and the only two games I have lost on tuesday/wednesday
were games home dogs

actually back betting utepp having a sugar play at it only

EC is awful aginst the spread

but in this case a better team all the way around the ball

and should definitely be better than 4 points than memphis

Dont stress this game in first play half if Memphis plays out of their means

EC will hopefully sooner than later wear this team providing you those points to cover int he 4th

im palying this game tonight

EAST CAROLINA -3-6.5 isa play for me

[wal66]

Crush.................it is scary how your mind works bro. Keep posting here as long as you like. I can't keep up have the time but I still enjoy the madness behind the method.