you are correct dbldown, and i realize this obviously doesn't fit real rlm conditions because the movement is only a half point, but at this number it means a little more than if it were, say, 6 to 6.5. it just smells fishy also considering the line started at a low number with the dog being a rather obvious pick. i for one hate these type of games, but all things considered unc grabs me ever so slightly. plus dan knows a lot more than me and he seems to pick his fade the public spots rather well overall.
-
Comment -
Taking FSU tomorrow, and lose happy if I don't win. No point in over analyzing this one for me!Comment -
Okay a home team generally gets 3 points at home. UNC can't even give up that. If that were the case the spread would be 5.5 or 6. The books can't even give that to FSU. The public would still be all over them. Every time I see a 2 or 2.5 point spread for a home team or a supposed to be superior team I take the dog. And most of the time they win straight up.
Comment -
I would have to agree with you 100% on this. I usually always take the dog when the home team is favored up to 3 points. I love FSU getting 3 points here and i really think FSU wins this outright.Okay a home team generally gets 3 points at home. UNC can't even give up that. If that were the case the spread would be 5.5 or 6. The books can't even give that to FSU. The public would still be all over them. Every time I see a 2 or 2.5 point spread for a home team or a supposed to be superior team I take the dog. And most of the time they win straight up.Comment -
Could you throw some examples. Not trying to bust your balls here but if anyone had a science to picking games, Thursday night would be the exception. It never seems as easy as it should and I think this game could be decided on who has the ball last. Don't see a reason to rest my wager on Yates who underperforms week in, week out. Ponder and company are so Jekyll and Hyde you can't rest on them either. Looking on the other side of the ball I like both defenses. FSU has the edge with athleticism, but it is a double edge sword because they are young. UNC doesn't have the rich tradition but have the numbers to prove back it. Head says home team and national television will carry the team with the most steam (even if it is built on mediocrity) over a more athletic team that has nothing to play for. But FSU has been a thorn to me all this year, bet against and they are National Champs, bet for and they wouldn't be a high school in Tallahassee. But enough Obama-ing I am going to pick a side and stick to it.Okay a home team generally gets 3 points at home. UNC can't even give up that. If that were the case the spread would be 5.5 or 6. The books can't even give that to FSU. The public would still be all over them. Every time I see a 2 or 2.5 point spread for a home team or a supposed to be superior team I take the dog. And most of the time they win straight up.
FSU scrappy defense that has averaged 2.5 turnovers versus Yates 7 ints on just 6 tds. I will take the points and Seminoles. Small play on the under as well, RB's going to be in play heavily on both sides so clock is going to drain very quickly and if offenses sputter early punters may be busy tonight.
Side note I Hate Tulsa's Todd Graham what coach lets their foot off the gas with a lead that is less than two possessions with a whole quarter to play. His play calling was atrocious, but vengeance was on my side and instead of just busting the spread he lost outright. This lesson will be demonstrated to you next week by June Jones, who is going to dominate start to finish and not stop when he gets a lead.Comment -
I don't understand this line at all, yes FSU has lost the last four games but you've got to be kidding right with UNC getting points here. UNC haven't shown anything on offense all year, nor have they played a defense as good as FSU.
FSU last four games, were against some very well rounded teams.
11 Georgia Tech
21 BYU
30 South Florida
39 Boston College
UNC having the best defense in the ACC is a huge joke, they have not faced an offense that is well balanced as FSU. They played a good one sided squad in GT, but see what happened there? They got rolled over. This FSU squad is well balanced on the offensive side and I expect UNC to have tons of problems with ponder.
UNC hasn't even played a defense as good as FSU, and their offense hasn't even showed a spark in any of their games. I don't expect them to magically click all of a sudden on prime time and facing a very tough defense, maybe their toughest yet against FSU.
I think FSU wins this game outright
28-17Comment -
How can any of you actually play this game? Florida State is the most dysfunctional team in the ACC. Their coaches are constantly fighting amongst themselves. Their offense runs hot and cold. Sure they scored 44 aginst Georgia Tech, but they also scored 7 against South Florida and 19 against an FCS team. Their defense is absolutely horrid.
UNC has no offense. If not for their defense, they would be 2-4. Two of their 4 wins have come against FCS teams. They were held to 10 points by Ga.Tech AND Virginia combined.
I wish we did not have a future on this game. It is a crap game between two very dsappointing teams. We have UNC +3, because all of you Florida State lovers thought that they were going to the ACC Championship game. Typical Florida State mentality. The line is UNC -3 at the Hilton. If it goes up to -3.5, we middle out of this crapshoot.
Hs anyone given any thought to the total? Just wondering.Comment -
I see FSU taking this one strait up but its at +3 right now, so I'll just take the points.Comment -
FSU has lost 3 in a row, they will come out hungry. Chirstian Ponder is a capable quarterback who will make some plays."This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
Goat MilkComment -
who has UNC played? FSU took miami to the wire, they rolled BYU.....this team can play when it wants to and ESPN game on a weeknight is the medicine they need."This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
Goat MilkComment -
Ralph, how you doin on the season?Comment -
Take UNC................
North Carolina takes the field with an outstanding defense that is allowing a mere 14.2 points per game, including 2.9 yards per rush play, 4.5 yards per pass play and 3.6 yards per play to teams that combine to average 21.5 points per game, 3.7 yards per rush attempt, 5.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.4 yards per play against mediocre defensive squads. At home, the Tar Heels are limiting opponents to just 12.7 points per game, including 2.3 yards per rush play, 4.2 yards per pass play and 3.2 yards per play. In contrast, Florida State’s injury-plagued defense has allowed an alarming 31.3 points per game over the last three weeks, including 5.4 yards per rush play, 11 yards per pass play and 6.9 yards per play. Overall, Florida State’s defense is 0.4 yards per rush play worse than average and 2.0 yards per pass play worse than average, while being 1.1 yards per play worse than average in 2009. And, don’ look for a dramatic turnaround as Florida State defensive tackle Budd Thacker will not be available after being diagnosed with a Grade 3 sprained MCL, while senior linebacker Dekoda Watson is questionable with a groin injury.
Finally, head coach Butch Davis is a perfect 11-0 SU and ATS at home off a win versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. I should also note that the Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in weekday games, with four of those losses being outright upsets.Comment -
I have a weekly thread, stop by
"This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
Goat MilkComment -
Good stuff,
thanks guys.Comment -
NC has scored a whopping 22 points TOTAL against their top 3 opponents....the 2 ACC losses and UConn! The NC D is pretty good but they've played a bunch of scrubs along with GTech and UConn which aren't exactly passing monsters! NC does have the coaching advantage as FSU has a total cluster f*ck going on over there with a washed up Bobby B and what seems like 17 assistant coaches that have all been head coachs somewhere else....with all of them hanging around like vultures to snag his job when Bowden finally gets voted off the island? Ponder is the best QB that NC has seen and will pull this one out imo.....trying to decide between FSU ML or tease/parlay FSU and the Under!Comment -
I agree with you for the most part but i do not think unc has the coaching advantage. i mean come on
?? I don't have numbers in front of me to verify this but Butch Davis has done a pretty good job w/NC!
Almost anyone would have a coaching advantage over FSU currently...even Mickey Andrews Defense isn't any good this year. I'll still take the better athletes normally and FSU still has a ton of 6'3 230 lb. guys running a 4.5! Not to mention the better QB!Comment -
I think the ML has some value not going to take a +2.5 spread though. Less than ten percent of games end in less than a FG.Comment -
Can't fall into the trap of betting on what used to be a powerhouse football team. I know I'm tempted to take FSU for this same reason ... and IMO that's what Vegas is banking on too. I think the under is the play here ... but the more I look at this, the more it looks like a NC/Under parlay.
Comment -
FSU is -130 +3, NC +110 -3 on Bodog.
For some reason they do not want to come off that 1/2 pt. They are very slow to move with everybody else, but usually they won't go past -125. Just found it interesting, take it for what it is worth. If you like UNC, then go to Bodog if not there is no way its worth that much juice.Comment -
I have to agree with Dbldown's points above here. I think FSU stinks but hopefully not as much as they have shown lately. Maybe they try harder for Bobby to let him leave with some decency.Comment -
I have to agree with Dbldown's points above here. I think FSU stinks but hopefully not as much as they have shown lately. Maybe they try harder for Bobby to let him leave with some decency.Comment -
North Carolina is home and will be very tough.Comment -
1 unit UNC -2
1 unit over47.5
1 unit Parlay UNC + Over
Comment -
FSU wins boys!
Comment -
Serbone, please pay your 135 point tab with meComment
