Fellas get off IDAHO this week!!

Dbldown11 · 10-19-09, 11:32 AM

I probably wont be on them for the reasons you stated....but it's tempting cause they are getting a lot of points....and they can score

wal66 · 10-19-09, 11:49 AM

You couldn't have made this announcement while I was still in lean mode?

HoulihansTX · 10-19-09, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by wal66

You couldn't have made this announcement while I was still in lean mode?

Hey bro its monday.
But dude why are you making plays so early on UNDERDOGS?? Always wait until the day before or an hour B4 gametime. The line will move in your favor more often than not on UNDERDOGS, since the public perception is that they will get rolled.

I'm not trying to play Sensei, Wal, but I just think jumping early on Dogs is not the best move for a Sharp.

ackem19 · 10-19-09, 12:17 PM

I see your point, however, i feel that Idaho has the Passing Offense to fully take advantage of UNR. UNR has no pass defense...at all. I agree that Idaho's defense has been absent and UNR has a great ground attack, but we all saw what happens when a team can move the ball well through the air against them. Last week, Utah St. almost pulled the upset thanks to the 353 passing yards they put up on UNR. Expect a similar outcome if Idaho can move the ball that effectively. I mean come on, UNLV put up 275 yards against this passing defense. I think you go to UNLV and I live in Vegas (born and raised) so we both know how bad UNLV is. Teams that have beat UNR have beat them through the air or through takeaways. I think Idaho getting 12.5 points is the play.

xyzky · 10-19-09, 12:20 PM

Both teams will be able to put up points in this one. +14 should get the job done...

wal66 · 10-19-09, 12:20 PM

H-Town...........the only reason I make my plays so early is because I use my program. I'm not shopping for value on lines because my value is already calculated in when making the selections. I might be missing out on some padding but the games I play on are based on not needing anything else. Maybe it's not smart but it has been working for me so far. The reason I set my minimum requirements so high is two fold, it it eliminates most of the games and it allows me wiggle room on line adjustments. About the only time I will do something other than what I post is when there is late RLM.

HoulihansTX · 10-19-09, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

I see your point, however, i feel that Idaho has the Passing Offense to fully take advantage of UNR. UNR has no pass defense...at all. I agree that Idaho's defense has been absent and UNR has a great ground attack, but we all saw what happens when a team can move the ball well through the air against them. Last week, Utah St. almost pulled the upset thanks to the 353 passing yards they put up on UNR. Expect a similar outcome if Idaho can move the ball that effectively. I mean come on, UNLV put up 275 yards against this passing defense. I think you go to UNLV and I live in Vegas (born and raised) so we both know how bad UNLV is. Teams that have beat UNR have beat them through the air or through takeaways. I think Idaho getting 12.5 points is the play.

Duely noted, but I think the OVER is the best bet in this game. I still think Idaho depends on turnovers, a factor that is fairly erratic, for close wins.

And that win at N. Illi is looking less impressive every week. Don't you fellas think that a team getting +13 that is (6-1) is fishy? I actually think its a lure to those who have been on Idaho for the past 4 weeks. Play the OVER fellas, and watch the scores pile up in this game.

HoulihansTX · 10-19-09, 12:26 PM

Guys I love the back and forth, but I have run out of practical reasons to not play Idaho.

So I will say this...

"If it seems to good to be true it usually is."
--- Citation "SexyMit"

ackem19 · 10-19-09, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Duely noted, but I think the OVER is the best bet in this game. I still think Idaho depends on turnovers, a factor that is fairly erratic, for close wins.

i could agree with that. I'm not set on Idaho and yes, when something is too good to be true, it usually is, after it all boils down, its just a gut feeling. much like Iowa St was last week. thank you for the input and the warning.

HoulihansTX · 10-19-09, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

i could agree with that. I'm not set on Idaho and yes, when something is too good to be true, it usually is, after it all boils down, its just a gut feeling. much like Iowa St was last week. thank you for the input and the warning.

You know Iowa St. is better at home than I thought. If they face a team with similar talent at home they are a play. They are a team on my radar from now on.

ackem19 · 10-19-09, 01:01 PM

i haven't seen a spread for ISU this week, but i think their spread offense might be a problem for Nebraska, considering how poorly they've done against the spread in the past and even last week. this is Tom Herman's first year as coordinator for ISU and thus their first year using the spread. but they're doing a good job of taking the ball away and even moving the ball on the ground. but i'd expect ISU to try to use the spread to their advantage as much as possible.

HoulihansTX · 10-19-09, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

i haven't seen a spread for ISU this week, but i think their spread offense might be a problem for Nebraska, considering how poorly they've done against the spread in the past and even last week. this is Tom Herman's first year as coordinator for ISU and thus their first year using the spread. but they're doing a good job of taking the ball away and even moving the ball on the ground. but i'd expect ISU to try to use the spread to their advantage as much as possible.

I can't play against Nebraska after a loss. Bo Pelini needed something to get their focus back. Especially after ESPN bought into the Ndamakong Suh Hype, and brought the camera's and hoopla last week after beating a sorry Mizzou sqaud.

ackem19 · 10-19-09, 01:05 PM

yea i wont the touch the game either. i guess its just something i will be paying attention to.

Cougar Bait · 10-19-09, 04:12 PM

I still like Idaho and it will likely make my card. If you believe they can be merely competitive it is worth a shot. I've watched Idaho play 3 times this year and their defense is a bit suspect, but that team believes in themselves and their coach. WAC teams are always a little dicey, but I like their chances to cover here. Nevada wasn't impressive last week either against a below average Utah State team.

HoulihansTX · 10-20-09, 08:31 AM

Take the OVER for the best bet. I guess my warning is not loud enough.... GET OFF IDAHO

cakasmaloy · 10-20-09, 08:39 AM

shit... i actually just logged on to post about my lean on IDAHO this week +14 now... they can win games away from home... i might still play them given 2 tds

twentyonekid · 10-20-09, 08:42 AM

IDAHO has been a good luck team for me so im not getting off them now,even if they don't cover they have won me money and 1 week isn't going to kill me if they lost ATS.......anyways PAGS11 is on them so i will be too

Mac4Lyfe · 10-20-09, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by twentyonekid

IDAHO has been a good luck team for me so im not getting off them now,even if they don't cover they have won me money and 1 week isn't going to kill me if they lost ATS.......anyways PAGS11 is on them so i will be too

^^^Agreed... Why jump off the boat that got you here. Of course this has trap written all over it but I've made enough on Idaho this year not to get off of them now. I won't go all in but I'm still riding with a winner. Teams like Mizzou and Illini, I've been fading all year and I'm not going to stop with them either until they start covering. Sometimes I just ride the winners and fade the losers regardless of line. Last year, UF covered every line but 1 and peeps kept saying, "one day they won't cover", well I stayed on them the entire time. UNC basketball and Uconn womans I rode straight to the bank as well.

I already played Idaho as well. I wanted to get an early +14 in case it goes down. BOL

BTW - I'll probably make a small play on the ML. Why the hell not?

HoulihansTX · 10-20-09, 09:17 AM

GL fellas I'm done.

AdaBarber · 10-20-09, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by wal66

H-Town...........the only reason I make my plays so early is because I use my program. I'm not shopping for value on lines because my value is already calculated in when making the selections. I might be missing out on some padding but the games I play on are based on not needing anything else. Maybe it's not smart but it has been working for me so far. The reason I set my minimum requirements so high is two fold, it it eliminates most of the games and it allows me wiggle room on line adjustments. About the only time I will do something other than what I post is when there is late RLM.

Well said. I go early too. Last week I got Akron @ +11.5 and it went down to 7 I think. And I am on Akron again +10. And like I told Dexter, when I finish my requirements the line doesn't matter to me. I am pulling the games that give me the most room. Last week I only got eleven games. So far for this week I have Nine and I am not done with all of them yet!

TheBetBuysDanK · 10-20-09, 09:33 AM

I like the over here as well. Idaho should be able to move the football through the air and score some points, but i think that the nevada D at home will be too much for the vandals. I'm not touching the spread here, but i love the over.

TheBetBuysDanK · 10-20-09, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

^^^Agreed... Why jump off the boat that got you here. Of course this has trap written all over it but I've made enough on Idaho this year not to get off of them now. I won't go all in but I'm still riding with a winner. Teams like Mizzou and Illini, I've been fading all year and I'm not going to stop with them either until they start covering. Sometimes I just ride the winners and fade the losers regardless of line. Last year, UF covered every line but 1 and peeps kept saying, "one day they won't cover", well I stayed on them the entire time. UNC basketball and Uconn womans I rode straight to the bank as well.

I already played Idaho as well. I wanted to get an early +14 in case it goes down. BOL

BTW - I'll probably make a small play on the ML. Why the hell not?

a small play on the money might not be a bad idea, i agree.

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 10:02 AM

I was actually thinking this would be the week to get off Idaho....because I thought they would lose value. But getting two touchdowns to a Nevada team that has been average doesnt scream lost value. If anything it screams keep playing them. After this week if they play them close or beat em straight up it would be time to jump ship. But two touchdowns in this spot is tons of value. And I agree that the ML has TONS of value, as well as whatever the over comes out at, cause it should be a shootout

jgray · 10-20-09, 09:49 PM

Line is now 15.5 and 16 at Legends. The most ironic thing here is that more points Idaho gets, the more fishy and odd the line seems. That said, I like Idaho in this spot. The strength of the Nevada offense is on the ground where Idaho is ranked 14th in nation in rushing D. Nevada poses a different test than Idaho has faced so I expect that ranking to change after this week, but so far this season Idaho has held its own.

In the end, I'm just not convinced that Nevada is over 2 TD's better.

saltwatercowboy · 10-20-09, 09:57 PM

I have to agree. Idaho has been perfect against the number this year thus far covering every spread. While I won't say the defense has been horrible, it hasn't been stellar enough to give me any confidence that they can shut down the Nevada QB. While Colin Kaepernick hasn't done all the damage we expected this year, he still is a threat every play. Idaho will struggle to contain him and probably have to move up a spy to shadow him leaving the secondary vulnerable to big plays. While I love Idaho and everything Coach Akey has done for the program, I just am not convinced they can hang in there with a dynamic Wolfpack team. However, I'm not convinced they can't either. No play for me. Hopefully you guys will figure it out and cash it. GL.

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by jgray

Line is now 15.5 and 16 at Legends. The most ironic thing here is that more points Idaho gets, the more fishy and odd the line seems. That said, I like Idaho in this spot. The strength of the Nevada offense is on the ground where Idaho is ranked 14th in nation in rushing D. Nevada poses a different test than Idaho has faced so I expect that ranking to change after this week, but so far this season Idaho has held its own.

In the end, I'm just not convinced that Nevada is over 2 TD's better.

Last week the line kept dropping and everyone said it was fishy too. I frankly think that most people still are just not giving Idaho the credit they deserve because of their name.....and I dont' mind it cause it keeps adding to my roll

HoulihansTX · 11-14-09, 07:55 AM

I'm back to tell yall not to bet on Idaho against Boise St.

Too much motivation for Boise St. to route them at home.

Non-existent defense on Idaho's side will provide no resistence. Idaho's Offense is not strong, or fast enough to score points against a Boise St. D that is stout at home.

Only a warning, and recommendation.

GL to all this Saturday.

HoulihansTX · 11-14-09, 08:02 AM

Add that fact Idaho's starting QB, who was injured in the La Tech game, may not play.

Starting OT is out also.

Last 5 meetings # of points Boise St. has won by; 35, 44, 16, 35, and 58.

Smails Kid · 11-14-09, 08:07 AM

on the Over ... thx Houlihans

2daBank · 11-14-09, 08:39 AM

the over should be str8 cash...you agree TX??

2daBank · 11-14-09, 08:41 AM

or do u think idaho gets shut down? i was really feelin the points but respect your opinion and may just drop the gm

HoulihansTX · 11-14-09, 08:57 AM

I have no opinion on the total.

Its like the Temple game last night. One team will score all the points. It all depends if Boise St. lets off the gas, stops scoring, and allows Idaho to score a couple.

capper123 · 11-14-09, 10:51 AM

justin 7 has idaho i have idaho!!!

HoulihansTX · 11-14-09, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by capper123

justin 7 has idaho i have idaho!!!

I know. I watched.