Wal's College Football Week #8

**Cougar Bait** · 10-18-09, 08:24 PM

Georgia Tech, Idaho, and Iowa also made my early leans Wal.

**wal66** · 10-18-09, 08:25 PM

We must have been viewing the other's post at the same time.

**twincities77** · 10-18-09, 08:33 PM

On the other side of GT/Virg. Not on USF, but teams coming off their first loss always scare me. I'm from Minn, and the Gophers historically lay an egg against the big gun Big Ten teams. Love Central Michigan and Indiana. Ark is a game tough for me to call because I don't know how they'll respond after that Florida loss. Like Northern Illinois (or should I say, like betting against Miami (OH)). On Idaho (also love the over for that game unless it's ridiculous). Iowa/MSU looks like a tough spread to me. UNLV looks like the play, hard to tell for me though because both teams are so bad.

**wal66** · 10-18-09, 08:43 PM

Twins, i will be looking more in depth into these games, i have to see who they play next week who got hurt this week and stuff like that. Right now they are just comper based. Human error awaits. LOL

**MartinBlank** · 10-18-09, 09:28 PM

Wal, I just noticed your record. You are killing it. Nice job.

Question if you don't mind. Are you using your own set of power numbers?

I began using them this year...but and this is the kick in the ass---I have no faith in them and instead keep making my selections based on my "analysis" of the matchup and I am getting my ass handed to me.

Again, nice run going. Good job.

**wal66** · 10-18-09, 09:46 PM

Martin I use a combination of things based on poer ranking, and other stat based stuff to generate a line. Then I use a pre-determined variable that must be bet. When that is met or acceeded it then becomes a potential play. Then some final looking into situations, injuries and stuff for the final card. Most all my games are based on my model though with only minor acceptions like Florida and LSU my model picked Florida to win but by only 3, I went against the program on that game and laid the opening number. It's main purpose is to narrow the field and help me find the best value. It really helped me locate dogs. I almost always played Favorites and still lean to them as a majority but when my program clearly shows a dog with bite I listen and generally follow blindly.

I designed it last year and ended the regular season at 66% so until I see negative numbers I'll keep it runnig as is.

I can assure you my program is no where near that of the pro's as I am only about 40% computer literate.

**ackem19** · 10-19-09, 05:22 AM

Like your picks. I actually like UVA over GT. Since the beginning of October Al Groh and Co. have gone 3-0. Not to mention, last year UVA seemed to be able to stop the "Perfect-Option" only allowing 156, 121, and 105 (rushing yards) in their last 3 meetings. Plus they are at home and getting points in a conference game, which always helps. I like Idaho, USF, and Indiana and I don't really want to touch any of the other games. Well, BOL this week.

**wal66** · 10-19-09, 10:48 AM

Wekk #8

Play:

Central Michigan -6.5** (bought the hook)
Program likes them I’ve won with them so I’m riding them.

Indiana +4.5**
I won with them last week and was nervous about playing them. I’m playing them again this week and slightly more nervous about it even though the program has them winning straight-up.

Northern Illinois -11** (bought the hook)
The program likes them by enough that I have significant value here. It’s also an added bonus that Miami-Ohio isn’t a very good team.

Idaho +13**
WOW! Idaho is the under the radar team of 2009. Some of you have been along for the ride all season long and some of you even pointed out what a ride it worthy cause it’s been. First time I’ve posted them as a play all year so I’m hoping I didn’t wait too long. The program likes them outright so I’ll gladly accept a simple cover.

UNLV -3 ** (bought the hook)
Ok I know…………. They stink. Fortunately they stink less than New Mexico, oh gawd I hope they stink less than New Mexico.

Teams I like and may add later include Arkansas, Minnesota and Mississippi St. I dropped Georgia Tech simply because the line concerns me. Even though Virginia beat them last year and held them to just 156 yards rushing I would think Georgia Tech’s win over Virginia tech last week would have allowed the books to open this at 7-8 and still got plenty of action on Georgia Tech. Even though I personally think Georgia Tech can easily cover this line I’m gonna pass out of concern. South Florida is another game I am passing on. While I truly feel they could win this game outright. They are a very good team when they are setting the tempo and are in the lead. Unfortunately they have issues both from a performance and coaching standpoint when they are controlling the game. Pitt is a solid team and I just can’t wager on South Florida in this spot.
I intended to play 8 games this week and chickened out on half my card so I am playing these games all at 2 units.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-19-09, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by wal66

[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT] Idaho +13** [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][COLOR=#000000]WOW! Idaho is the under the radar team of 2009. Some of you have been along for the ride all season long and some of you even pointed out what a ride it worthy cause it’s been. First time I’ve posted them as a play all year so I’m hoping I didn’t wait too long. The program likes them outright so I’ll gladly accept a simple cover.

You waited too long, bro. Jump ship, red alert, the wheels have fallen off. Idaho has no defense. They may get rolled. The OVER is the best bet.

**mcbaseball10** · 10-19-09, 11:11 AM

Wal, keep up the good work. This is a good starting point thread for people looking for solid information in making their plays. Maybe a good spot for open dialogue for people that want to make money without all the BS attached.

**Gaston Monescu** · 10-19-09, 11:19 AM

I like your picks. Might I add Minnesota +18 and Kansas +6.5. These are more picks against their competition. Ohio St.'s Pryor will hamstring the offense, and Oklahomo without Bradford is just woeful. With your picks, I'd say teasing these would be safe value bets.

**mcbaseball10** · 10-19-09, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

You waited too long, bro. Jump ship, red alert, the wheels have fallen off. Idaho has no defense. They may get rolled. The OVER is the best bet.

Nevada is definitely rolling now with that offense. I'm not sure that Idaho has enough depth to handle this stretch of games that they have had. They have never been in this position before where they are winning and expected to perform. On the road in the desert with all the bright lights might be a little too much for them to handle now. I am laying off this one for now and might consider the over as a play as well.

**wal66** · 10-19-09, 11:35 AM

Houlihan...........every friggin week you come into my thread and totally spit on one of my leans or an actualy play. That would piss me off except you've been right every single time. I'm hoping you're just good and not perfect after this weekend. LOL.

mcbaseball.............my thread is always welcoming dialogue about games both that I'm on or any for that matter. I actually like discussion it only helps because someone always seems to bring up something that might have been overlooked.

**mcbaseball10** · 10-19-09, 11:45 AM

That's the way it should be wal. People make it sound like they are betting against one another and take it personally if there are opposing viewpoints. Will weigh in with my thoughts as week goes on.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-19-09, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Houlihan...........every friggin week you come into my thread and totally spit on one of my leans or an actualy play. That would piss me off except you've been right every single time. I'm hoping you're just good and not perfect after this weekend. LOL. mcbaseball.............my thread is always welcoming dialogue about games both that I'm on or any for that matter. I actually like discussion it only helps because someone always seems to bring up something that might have been overlooked.

Its goes hand-in-hand, bro. WE should always keep the lines of communication open, and always be open-mined in our leans. Your doing great, but my two-cents will always be a factor in threads of posters that I respect.

Keep it up.

**wal66** · 10-19-09, 12:22 PM

Always respected and appreciated as well H-Town.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-19-09, 12:44 PM

Central Mich should be your strongest play. Is it?

They should roll Bowling Green. Good you got it at -6.5.

**wal66** · 10-19-09, 12:54 PM

You're starting to know me a little too well H-Town.

I kind of like Indiana enough to consider ML as well.

**twincities77** · 10-19-09, 12:56 PM

Good luck with your picks Wal.

**wal66** · 10-19-09, 12:57 PM

Thanks twins..............Good fortune to you this week as well.

**Ca$hfloW** · 10-19-09, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by Gaston Monescu

I like your picks. Might I add Minnesota +18 and Kansas +6.5. These are more picks against their competition. Ohio St.'s Pryor will hamstring the offense, and Oklahomo without Bradford is just woeful. With your picks, I'd say teasing these would be safe value bets.

Kansas is not as good as people think i would not lay money on them

**HoulihansTX** · 10-19-09, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by Ca$hfloW

Kansas is not as good as people think i would not lay money on them

Kansas's defense is a hologram.

**PingPong** · 10-19-09, 01:08 PM

yea i would expect oklahoma to bounce back and roll kansas. im also on minnesota, indiana, and ga tech. good luck this week

**wal66** · 10-19-09, 01:23 PM

The Georgia Tech game is gonna bother me all week. If they had just opened a little higher of a favorite I would have had no issue playing them even if they lost. Why 4? That is such a gift number that it has me thinking conspiracy and maybe I shouldn't be. this will serious bother me all week long.

**Ralphie1412** · 10-19-09, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by Ca$hfloW

Kansas is not as good as people think i would not lay money on them

agreed, im on oklahoma BIG

**PingPong** · 10-19-09, 03:24 PM

oklahoma now at -8

**Dana4U** · 10-20-09, 06:53 PM

UNLV Movement

Line was at UNLV -3 yesterday and now it's at pick 'em.

**wal66** · 10-20-09, 07:20 PM

Which should tell anyone to stay away from this game or go the other way. Unfortunately I'm already down. I may have to add one of my other plays to off-set what the line is telling is gonna happen with this game.

**Dana4U** · 10-20-09, 10:00 PM

Idaho Movement

The Idaho game has three points of movement as well .... it is now at +16.

**Dbldown11** · 10-20-09, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by wal66

The Georgia Tech game is gonna bother me all week. If they had just opened a little higher of a favorite I would have had no issue playing them even if they lost. Why 4? That is such a gift number that it has me thinking conspiracy and maybe I shouldn't be. this will serious bother me all week long.

You know it's botherin gme a little too....however I've seen enough people talking about Virginia in positive terms that it makes me think there are enough people out there betting them cause they think the line is too high. I'm playing Tech because I've learned to try and not read the books mind. I find lines that look off and play them. If I start trying to think about "what the books want me to think" then I overthink everything and do much worse

**wal66** · 10-20-09, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

You know it's botherin gme a little too....however I've seen enough people talking about Virginia in positive terms that it makes me think there are enough people out there betting them cause they think the line is too high. I'm playing Tech because I've learned to try and not read the books mind. I find lines that look off and play them. If I start trying to think about "what the books want me to think" then I overthink everything and do much worse

**AdaBarber** · 10-21-09, 08:55 AM

Good luck Wal. I am on Central Michigan -7. All the others you have didn't make my cut. Good Luck this week!

**wal66** · 10-21-09, 09:33 AM

Good luck and good fortunes to you this week as weel Ada

**Cougar Bait** · 10-21-09, 04:55 PM

Settled on USF, Iowa, and Idaho...didn't expect that number to climb the way it did...got 13.5

so hopefully they can make a game of it.

GL this week Wal