How many of you bet Strictly on "Money Line"?

twincities77 · 10-14-09, 11:18 PM

I don't tend to look at them unless the line is less than 3. If you're really interested in them, learn the conversions from Spread to ML (and back) and pick the one with the best value.

polson22 · 10-14-09, 11:27 PM

FWIW, i think you can make better ROI in moneyline. i think it's just modestly mispriced as opposed to OP's view, which i don't totally understand. i didn't see game, but i presume boise could have lost tonight.

addbball · 10-14-09, 11:28 PM

I do bet solely on moneylines, but most of my bets are on underdogs or on lines under -200. It's almost never worth it to bet on a favorite of -600 or higher. You may make money over your first 20-50 bets that way, but eventually you'll starting digging yourself into a hole.

stats13 · 10-14-09, 11:28 PM

if you are scared to lay points, dont bet the moneyline.

what i think is probably the most +ev over the long haul is home dogs with the points. woof woof

Abrcrom12 · 10-15-09, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by Boddhissatva

BYU this weekend is -900. I believe the chance they blow this is incredibly small...

Wouldn't the smart thing to do is bet 2700 to win 300? Isn't this easy money?

And I know there is the very small possibility of an "upset"....but seriously....

Using your example, think about this:
You put $2700 on the ML and BYU loses (however much of a lock you think it is).
Playing games with that same line, or around that line, you will have to wager 9 games at $2700 for a total of $24,300 just to make back your original bet.
What happens if there's another upset?
If it was such a lock, why would the books offer it?

Listen to the advice above as there's some good stuff.
Learn the conversions from spread to ML and look for soft lines.
Look at dogs within 3 pts (this doesn't mean every dog +3, +2, etc. is a definite bet)
Learn to cap and bet on Spreads.

GL

spongerat · 10-15-09, 11:11 AM

it is not smarter to bet the moneyline especially if you're betting big favorites.

you will win a higher % of your bets yes, but you HAVE to win a huge % to even make a profit. Moneylines can be inflated greatly on favorites by the public who have the same logic. You should learn betting basics and probably stop betting or stick to Spreads

Ralphie1412 · 10-15-09, 02:47 PM

ask curious about this.

blackbeSSt · 10-15-09, 02:54 PM

i've always wondered about ML plays as i've never bothered to look in to it.

so does team A that is a -2.5 favorite have to win by 2.5 or more in order to win/push said bet, or just flat out win regarless?

jpete1966 · 10-15-09, 03:06 PM

Team A just has to win but you would pay more or win less depending on your bet. For examle: Team A -2.5 you would bet $110 to win $100 but Team A has to win by 3 or more. If you took Team A on the moneyline the -2.5 doesn't matter but would would be risking something like $135 to win $100.

blackbeSSt · 10-15-09, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by jpete1966

Team A just has to win but you would pay more or win less depending on your bet. For examle: Team A -2.5 you would bet $110 to win $100 but Team A has to win by 3 or more. If you took Team A on the moneyline the -2.5 doesn't matter but would would be risking something like $135 to win $100.

so the only thing that matters on a ML is winning. no matter if the spread is 30 and they win by 1 (granted the payout would prolly suck)!

Hotsauce_wally · 10-15-09, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by blackbeSSt

so the only thing that matters on a ML is winning. no matter if the spread is 30 and they win by 1 (granted the payout would prolly suck)!

Florida is +24.5 favorite, and for ML they are -2400.

so you would have to bet 24u to win 1u... I would have trouble to do that.

wal66 · 10-15-09, 03:51 PM

I dabble with money linesonly when i have an underdog with a serious potential even an edge of winning outright. Only time I mess around with favorites in moneyline situations is in a parlay but even then not that often.

Value isn't there in the long run with money line favorites. Takes too many winners to equal one loser.

mmike032 · 10-15-09, 03:57 PM

small spread ML dogs in NFL

Hotsauce_wally · 10-15-09, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I dabble with money linesonly when i have an underdog with a serious potential even an edge of winning outright. Only time I mess around with favorites in moneyline situations is in a parlay but even then not that often.

Value isn't there in the long run with money line favorites. Takes too many winners to equal one loser.

agreed. they can be useful for parlays, but I don't like risking a lot to win so little for a straight wager. I think you would need a large bankroll to have success doing that.

iwantcougars · 10-15-09, 04:01 PM

or you can try buying points in a 3 teams teaser

Mac4Lyfe · 10-15-09, 04:22 PM

Betting on large ML's can get you creamed because you have to risk too much. You may win a bunch of games but that 1 bad beat will kill all those bets combined.

I do love betting ML on underdogs that I feel can win outright. I normally bet with the points and sprinkle the ML for more moolah. Example, Iowa over PSU. I think the line was like 10 pts. Well I took the 10 points for like $300 and I sprinkled the ML for like $100. Even if Iowa didn't win, I was at least hoping they'd cover the line so I'd still win a couple hundred. Since they won I also won like +330 or like $330 on that ML bet plus the line bet. I like to bet dog ML's but very rarely bet faves...

Boddhissatva · 10-15-09, 05:35 PM

Thanks for the advice guys...

I guess I'm just expressing gamblers frustration when you have so many bets come up shot or do not meet the spread by a field goal...

Boise State put me on Tilt.

Abrcrom12 · 10-15-09, 11:56 PM

I mentioned before: "Look at dogs within 3 pts (this doesn't mean every dog +3, +2, etc. is a definite bet)"

Take a look at the Ravens this weekend. Potential to win outright.
I would bet on the spread and buy off of the 3.
Then sprinkle on the ML to make it that much sweeter when they win.