One Play I love --- INDIANA + 7

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    One Play I love --- INDIANA + 7
    I love the Hoosiers in this spot. The line has moved from 7 to 6 1/2 in some places, but the 7 can still be found pretty easily. Here is another game where we are getting the better team and a TD to boot. This Virginia team is pretty bad this year and the Hoosiers are a lot better than they have been in the past.

    The Cavaliers come in with a 1-3 record, getting their only win over a suspect North Carolina team that turned the ball over 3 times to virginia's 0. I think the North Carolina win is why we are getting a silly line in this game. If NC wins that game, as was expected then this game is probably a pk or -1.

    This Virginia team lost at home to William and Mary. Thats a William and Mary team that lost to Villanova. Norfolk State played W&M closer than Virginia did. Delaware played W&M closer than Virginia did. Virginia also lost to a Southern Miss team that has proven to not be very good.

    The only real test that Virginia has had this year was against TCU where it got dominated in every facet of the game losing by 16 points.

    The Hoosiers on the other hand went into Ann Arbor and gave Michigan all it could handle before finally blowing the game in the final minute. They also played Ohio State at about the same level that Virginia played TCU. The difference is that Ohio State is a much better team.

    Virginia's offense is very weak. Outside of the Southern Miss game ( everyone scores on Southern Miss ), Virginia has scored 14,14, and 16 points. This team got 14 points on William and Mary. And somehow they are going to beat Indiana by more than a touchdown ? Its not going to happen.

    Virginia QB Jameel Sewell has 648 yards passing this year. Outside of the Southern miss game he has 336 yards passing in 3 games, barely averaging 100 yards a game. The Cavaliers rushing offense is worse. Virginia has rushed for 356 yards in 4 games. They got 125 yards rushing against S. Miss, 57 against TCU, 78 against that feared William and Mary D , and 106 last week against North Carolina.

    Indiana running back Darius Willis has 45 rushing attempts for 244 yards this year. Thats 5+ yards, almost 6 yards per rush average. He did that playing against a much stronger schedule which included Ohio State and Michigan Defenses. He will have a field day against Virginia.

    Indiana QB Ben Chappell passed for 270 yards against Michigan, and over 200 against Ohio State. he tore up the other teams that IU played this year. Chappell comes in to the game with 1154 yards this year. He has passed for over 500 yards more than Sewell has this year.

    Indiana has given up 22 points per game this year. An average that was raised a lot by the 33 points both Michigan and Ohio State dropped on them. Virginia is most definitly not Michigan or Ohio State. Virginia's defense has given up 24 points per game this year.

    Looking at this game from a lot of angles, all gives me a strong belief that Indiana will win this game outright, but my play here will be Indiana + 7. I love this play a lot, no way I can see Virginia winning this game by more than 1 score.
  • awhitejackson
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-07
    • 2265

    #2
    Wow.... This is a confusing line....ACC is shite this year and Virginia is probably the lowest (besides Duke).... Again WOW.... This line is absolutely baffling... Indiana should have beat a well coached though over rated Michigan and then played well against Ohio State....But most importantly is Virginia's morale situation at this point..Fans and alumni are grumbling loud in charlottesville and even barring a magical finish to the season I think eveybody is aware Groh will be gone after this year... Win over UNc was a good win and legit but still possibly just one of the few anomalies that occur year after year in college foots....

    Nobs... Thanks for the writeup and good luck....I'm going to get further info on injuries etc, before I jump....Again WOW....
    Comment
    • nobs
      Restricted User
      • 08-31-09
      • 4216

      #3
      Thanks awhite. im not seeing any big injuries, if you find anything let us know.

      Thanks.

      By the way, Duke is better than most think and Maryland is crap. Even though the Clemson win was impressive.
      Comment
      • aeshred
        SBR High Roller
        • 09-16-09
        • 239

        #4
        Thats a very good pick, the only thing thats holding me back is Virginia has nothing to lose, they beat NC last wee, so now im confused but it should be a tight game, Indiana plus the 7 is the way to go
        Comment
        • Mac4Lyfe
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-04-09
          • 48366

          #5
          This looks to be a gift from the Gods. Virginia is horrible. That win against UNC isn't really impressive when you look at how awful UNC is. Indiana's offense can move the ball. I think they win this in a rout. I'm going to hammer the ML when it comes out as well. Maybe it's just me but it seems as if the books are giving home field a much larger advantage.
          Comment
          • awhitejackson
            SBR MVP
            • 11-15-07
            • 2265

            #6
            Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
            This looks to be a gift from the Gods. Virginia is horrible. That win against UNC isn't really impressive when you look at how awful UNC is. Indiana's offense can move the ball. I think they win this in a rout. I'm going to hammer the ML when it comes out as well. Maybe it's just me but it seems as if the books are giving home field a much larger advantage.
            Mac is wise...and his avatar makes me drool.. (when I'm all by myself)
            Comment
            • LINE-crush-ER
              SBR MVP
              • 01-04-08
              • 1445

              #7
              its a good pick in theory , but just like you said they blew it against michigan if i have ever learned anything is to bet on winners and bet against losers not gonna touch it , some teams win when they rent suppose too and some lose when they arent suppose too guess you can see where i am going but until indiania can cover your gonna see the line go where the money gets paid on , but have to say impressive field work hope your right for your sake
              Comment
              • HoulihansTX
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 02-12-09
                • 30566

                #8
                Wait until its +7.5. Public will jump all over Virginia.
                Comment
                • LINE-crush-ER
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-04-08
                  • 1445

                  #9
                  sorry i took a further look at this game , indiania just didnt do as well as you would like to claim against ohio state , the one score they had came just after half time and a field position changing int, and finally the second touchdown came last in the game known as a back door in which we dont count when the line is at 7 , virginia is getting stronger , indiana had less than 50 yards rushing , you also mentioned william and mary loss that was the first game of the season , they tried every quarterback and actually finally found a winner with 7 complete pass attempts in a row ending the game not to mention they had 7 turnovers that game , i try never to count the first 2 games played this late into the season but with all your work i wanted to look further into it , i like it even less now if u can get out of this game
                  Comment
                  • stocker08
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-25-09
                    • 910

                    #10
                    Wow, great find here. Indiana really isn't as bad as this line is showing them to be. I am going to go drop my bet right now.
                    Comment
                    • BravoWhiskey
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 10-17-07
                      • 80

                      #11
                      Tread lightly on this one fellas, it's a sucker line. Research Al Groh's record in the month of October, it's usually the time of year when he salvages his job.
                      Comment
                      • Cougar Bait
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-04-07
                        • 18282

                        #12
                        Indiana made my card this week nobs GL
                        Comment
                        • nobs
                          Restricted User
                          • 08-31-09
                          • 4216

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BravoWhiskey
                          Tread lightly on this one fellas, it's a sucker line. Research Al Groh's record in the month of October, it's usually the time of year when he salvages his job.

                          That is right up there with the guy who said he was taking Ball State - 17 1/2 over North Texas because Ball State had covered its last 9 games in September.

                          How Ball State had done last September didnt keep them from losing the game straight up by double digits as a 17 1/2 point favorite no less. Well, maybe that guys book gave him a refund on the bet, after all Ball State had done so well ..... last September.
                          Last edited by nobs; 10-07-09, 10:02 PM.
                          Comment
                          • nobs
                            Restricted User
                            • 08-31-09
                            • 4216

                            #14
                            Originally posted by LINE-crush-ER
                            sorry i took a further look at this game , indiania just didnt do as well as you would like to claim against ohio state , the one score they had came just after half time and a field position changing int, and finally the second touchdown came last in the game known as a back door in which we dont count when the line is at 7 , virginia is getting stronger , indiana had less than 50 yards rushing , you also mentioned william and mary loss that was the first game of the season , they tried every quarterback and actually finally found a winner with 7 complete pass attempts in a row ending the game not to mention they had 7 turnovers that game , i try never to count the first 2 games played this late into the season but with all your work i wanted to look further into it , i like it even less now if u can get out of this game

                            I never said at any point that Indiana did well against Ohio State. I said they did as well against Ohio State as Va did against TCU. And they did.

                            Yeah Indiana had 50 yards rushing against Ohio State. Virginia got 57 against TCU and what ??? 78 against William and Mary.

                            Indiana has twice as many yards rushing and almost twice as many yards passing, and has given up fewer points per game. And they are getting 7 points. Why would I want to get out of this play, when not one single person has posted an intelligent comment supporting Virginia to win by 2 scores ?

                            How can you really bring up the 50 rushing Indiana had against Ohio State, while at the same time saying the 57 yards VA got against W& M "doesnt count". LOL. Darius Willis has almost as many rushing yards this year as Virginia's entire team.

                            Ohio State shut down Indiana's rushing game. Everyone Virginia has played this year has shut there's down.

                            Indiana has a Better QB, a Better Running game, a better Defense, a better record, has played a better schedule, and is getting 7 points.
                            Comment
                            • nobs
                              Restricted User
                              • 08-31-09
                              • 4216

                              #15
                              Originally posted by BravoWhiskey
                              Tread lightly on this one fellas, it's a sucker line. Research Al Groh's record in the month of October, it's usually the time of year when he salvages his job.

                              I have heard the " its a sucker line" and "too good to be true" comments in every play I posted.

                              Well the Theory is 0 for 7 now, so I suppose it has to be right pretty soon.
                              Comment
                              • nobs
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-31-09
                                • 4216

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Cougar Bait
                                Indiana made my card this week nobs GL

                                Good Luck to us Cougar, I am very confident we have a winner here.


                                2009 College Record 7-0
                                all plays posted on this board
                                Comment
                                • stocker08
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-25-09
                                  • 910

                                  #17
                                  Yeah, im not sure why virgina is favored at all. Indiana has looked pretty decent this year.
                                  Comment
                                  • nobs
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 08-31-09
                                    • 4216

                                    #18
                                    I think its because they beat UNC last week and because they traditionally have a good team and IU usually sucks.

                                    These are different teams this year, and Virginia isnt gonna beat Indiana by 2 scores.
                                    Comment
                                    • BravoWhiskey
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 10-17-07
                                      • 80

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by nobs
                                      I have heard the " its a sucker line" and "too good to be true" comments in every play I posted.

                                      Well the Theory is 0 for 7 now, so I suppose it has to be right pretty soon.
                                      nobs.......

                                      I wasn't trying to bust your balls, I hope you cash the ticket bro. Personally, it's a no play for me. I live in ACC Country, am a fan of a team in that conference (GT), and know the teams pretty well. I've seen Al Groh pull that October rabbit out of his hat seemingly every year. They have pretty good personnel on defense, but their offense has been their achilles heel to this point. Groh brought in former Bowling Green HC Gregg Brandon to coordinate the offense, and the early returns have mostly been disastrous. They seemed to go back to a more conventional style of offense against UNC, and their offense was much more productive. I've seen this movie before, be wary of using September UVA results to wager against them in October. It won't bother me in the least if UVA loses this game outright, just pointing out some recent history.
                                      Comment
                                      • MSUSpartan32
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 10-01-08
                                        • 948

                                        #20
                                        I think the Indiana play may make my card. However, Michigan is not very good. Don't use that close game as the sole measuring stick for the Hoosiers....
                                        Comment
                                        • M.W.
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-07-08
                                          • 1668

                                          #21
                                          Virginia was 19 points better than IU last year. I don't think the gap has closed as much as some of you think. UVA is maybe 2 or 3 points worse than last year; I'm not sure about IU, but they don't appear to be more than 11 points better than last year, which is what you'd need in order to find value on this line in Charlottesville.

                                          Also, like last year, UVA got off to a slow start, but appears to be hitting its stride in October. Remember, UVA changed systems on both sides of the ball, which could have something to do with this year's slow start, and UVA also was uncertain about the QB position. After a bye week, UVA went with Sewell, got a good win, and now has some nice momentum to carry it through a non-conference game, while Indiana is in a bit of a flat spot as this game sits between a game versus top-dog Ohio State and a game versus an Illinois team that beat IU 55-13 last year. Those are real attention-getters. Finally, UVA loves to play at home, and the Wahoos have a very strong home-field advantage under Groh. My numbers favor UVa by 14 here.
                                          Last edited by M.W.; 10-08-09, 12:01 PM.
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                                          • JMUplayer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-27-09
                                            • 2765

                                            #22
                                            Didn't UVA win 4 out of 5 in October last year? I can't say i have confidence in any Big Ten team playing out of conference.
                                            Comment
                                            • stocker08
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-25-09
                                              • 910

                                              #23
                                              Winning 4 out of 5 in October last year doesn't mean anything. This is going to be a close game. Indiana covers and has a sht to win the game straight up.
                                              Comment
                                              • khaden
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-19-09
                                                • 1864

                                                #24
                                                I don't like to put good money on bad teams and I think indiana would qualify as being a bad team. they might not be as bad as they've been in the past but they still ain't good. just my 2 cents
                                                Comment
                                                • JMUplayer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-27-09
                                                  • 2765

                                                  #25
                                                  Indiana moved from 6.5 to 7..... finding it hard to resist
                                                  Comment
                                                  • AlphaOmega
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-31-08
                                                    • 1146

                                                    #26
                                                    WOW excelent pick well written and correct . . . what happened? I guess you are not perfect . . . well continue doing what you do . . . cut and paste the next winner buddy
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mac4Lyfe
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-04-09
                                                      • 48366

                                                      #27
                                                      Games like this make it hard to make a living at this shit. I never saw that beatdown coming. I'm glad I only put up a unit and not hammer it like I was going to at first. Moderation is sometimes the key. I let my emotions make a bet with Michigan State 2nd half against the sorry ass Illini. Juice Will comes in and I got fukked.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fishmonger
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-31-08
                                                        • 1492

                                                        #28
                                                        Yeah...

                                                        Lost big time on this game but the shit happens. I loved Indiana too.
                                                        Comment
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