I think im on to something...

[themajormt]

You have to be able to track the line MOVEMENT, not just open to close... Right?

[smitch124]

you are basing that on the closing lines. these bets are being placed on early line moves by wednesday. The results can not be accurately measured using closing lines

The link I provided shows the line history for the whole week if you look a bit deeper.

[cakasmaloy]

*With respect to the previously posted Nevada pick (on ESPN)

That was a mistake on my part although I feel as though that filter is moreso meant for those games played before saturday bc those would be the games that receive unordinary attention.

[cakasmaloy]

caka,
I've played your picks for the past two weeks and cashed. Thanks alot. Alot of people would love to find something like this and keep it to themselves. why did you want to share it with others, and do you think if enough people start following this will it effect the spread?

Im glad you've made some $ from this! I decided to tell people about it because its the only thing ive discovered since I started betting games that has consistently paid off, so why not! I would expect that of others too. Also, I don't think the spreads will be effected by information provided on an internet forum. This forum would take some SERIOUS attention to have enough pull to shift spreads. Good luck this week!

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

My predictions usually result in 2 or 3 point line movements worldwide, just kidding.

[JGun]

you are basing that on the closing lines. these bets are being placed on early line moves by wednesday. The results can not be accurately measured using closing lines

Not so fast my friend (Lee Corso voice)!

If you click on the Odds History link under each game you'll see not only daily, but hourly line movement. I'm using the last posted spread on each Wednesday for the back-testing.

[Redskinskilla2010]

Makes sence..Thanks

[zubzub]

Excellent -- I'm done with 2007 and half way through 2008. I will post my results here when I complete the backtesting.

Awesome, its great you're doing this.

So far it is above 50% historically, however, it doesn't seem to be as winning a strategy in the past years as it is this season.

Hmmmm....interesting. I believe near the start of this thread cakas mentions having 3 years(?) worth of results but theres a search for filters going on which, of course, whatever filters cakas is experimenting with would affect posted plays so these more recent plays would not be wholly relevant to what you're seeing with the barebones initial movement deal.

and a real serious question really as to how much a large number of people playing on this would additionally affect line movement. These are not heavily wagered upon games after all. Which is the besis really of the whole deal.

[zubzub]

You have to be able to track the line MOVEMENT, not just open to close... Right?

This does not consider the close at all, initial large line movement on "under the radar games". No TV games. Ideal is to get the play as near to the opening number as possible after the initial large line movement is observed which, of course, would require having several books and amongst those: they that are known for favorable lines.

[cakasmaloy]

These are my final plays:

UAB -6
ArkSt -12.5
UNLV PK
N.Texas -1
Nevada -13

Once again, the current lines still look like a safe bet...Good luck.

[lyon804]

Cask, thanks for sharing this information. I just started following the thread. It looks good. I appreciate the work. I am working on a couple of things when I get something I will let everyone know. Thanks again

[PingPong]

cool system. what is your overall record on the year?

[cakasmaloy]

UAB -6
ArkSt -12.5
UNLV PK
N.Texas -1
Nevada -13

good luck

[teecee]

Damn, cakas! That N. Texas line sure took a turn for the worst, but I mean, hey, I never really expect to win every pick anyway. Who knows, this might be the one that pans out.

[keyboarding]

UAB up 14 in the 2nd. Looking strong.

Make that 21.

[cakasmaloy]

Damn, cakas! That N. Texas line sure took a turn for the worst, but I mean, hey, I never really expect to win every pick anyway. Who knows, this might be the one that pans out.

The closing line on these games don't really bother me. If the system plays out like it has been this season then it won't matter... NTexas should win the game. Good luck.

[daneblazer]

ark st isn't 13 points better than anybody. that one i dont like

[keyboarding]

Looking like it'll be 1-2 this afternoon. Hopefully UNLV and Nevada hit.

[cakasmaloy]

Yea...tough weekend. Hopefully we can grab the last two and finish 3-2! Good luck

[cakasmaloy]

UAB -6 WIN
ArkSt -12.5 LOSS
UNLV PK WIN
N.Texas -1 LOSS
Nevada -13

2-2 yesterday...hopefully Nevada pulls it off to keep the weekly winning streak in tact! Good luck

[keyboarding]

UAB -6
ArkSt -12.5
UNLV PK
N.Texas -1
Nevada -13

[OperatorX]

nevada covers, the streak continues

[Stringer Bell]

But Nevada was on national TV.. doesn't that make it no good for the system?

[keyboarding]

nevada covers, the streak continues

Barely.

[spongerat]

i thought tv games didn't count? oh well, looking good

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Yeah, Nevada was on national TV. But it was still two pretty small teams. What's the deal Chris Malloy?

[cakasmaloy]

I posted something about the Nevada pick earlier in the thread. Basically the purpose of excluding TV games is more specifically geared towards the weekday games BEFORE saturday because those are the games that just about everyone throws down on which fuks up the integrity of the line movement. Sorry for any confusion and I hope everyone still had a winning week. Please remeber this is still.a theory in the works so nothing is concrete. I'm thinking I should just eliminate weekday games as opposed to those of Natl TV. Thoughts?

[cakasmaloy]

UAB -6
ArkSt -12.5
UNLV PK
N.Texas -1
Nevada -13

Finished up 3-2 this week, putting us at 7-3 for the last 2 weeks. Once again, I will post all plays for this weekend by Wednesday using 1.5pt shifts or more.

[keyboarding]

I posted something about the Nevada pick earlier in the thread. Basically the purpose of excluding TV games is more specifically geared towards the weekday games BEFORE saturday because those are the games that just about everyone throws down on which fuks up the integrity of the line movement. Sorry for any confusion and I hope everyone still had a winning week. Please remeber this is still.a theory in the works so nothing is concrete. I'm thinking I should just eliminate weekday games as opposed to those of Natl TV. Thoughts?

I think, seeing as it is your first year, you should bet all variables, and see which were most profitable.

The nationally televised games only applies to weekend games would be one of the variables to monitor. Would be interesting to see how many times this will happen during a season.

[jenspulver123]

I would track the games that are possible filters, not bet those games and absorb unneccesary losses. If you can Caks please identify filtered and unfiltered games.

[OperatorX]

Barely.

heh im trying to remain optimistic.

[mulligann1]

hell, I'll take three out of five every week. this is three weeks in a row i"ve cashed with this system. thanks again

[JGun]

I don't want to steal caka's thunder, but these are the games that I think fit the criteria that have moved by at least 1.5 points from the opening line:

Western Michigan -12 (from -10)
Utah State -13 (from -10.5)
Southern Methodist -8 (from -6.5)
Rice -3 (from -1.5)
San Diego State -7.5 (from -5)
Hawaii -20 (from -18)

[OperatorX]

none of those games are televised?

[mcbaseball10]

none of those games are televised?

Not nationally televised.