Dbldown's CFB plays for 10/10/09

micjhenr · 10-05-09, 10:01 AM

Love the Temple and Indiana picks.......

Dbldown11 · 10-05-09, 11:50 AM

Yeah I am feeling really really good about that Temple pick as well. Not AS confident with Indiana, but still liking it. GL to you this week

wal66 · 10-05-09, 12:40 PM

Dbldown........not that it matters but because I'm at work and bored. I run my program on every game onthe board. I have to generally have a +/-3.5 value margin to make it a play. Qualifiers this week that I decided to play are in my thread. those that qualified but didn't get selected by me for whatever reason were......................

Indiana
Oregon
Marshall by a large margin
Navy
Nebraska

I think you have some very good value in your plays this week. Goodluck this week. Gonna suck for me though if you have a really good week cause no program is a 100% and if you have success that would probably mean I selected the wrong games to play.

Dbldown11 · 10-05-09, 12:46 PM

Well I think you should deffinately adjust your plays man...I mean if your program and my brain have those same 5 then how can we lose?!?!?!?! haha

Marshall at least should be a play though cause Tulane SUCKS and I was on Tulane this past week when they played Army and barely won...and army SUCKS

Thanks for that info though, makes me feel even better about these

wal66 · 10-05-09, 12:51 PM

I was, as my program dictated on Tulane last week as well and as stated as an outright winner posted before the game.

If I play the games I have plus the games I didn't play but have listed here my thread would look like Obaama's id didn't play 48 games last week.

TWEETS · 10-05-09, 01:03 PM

I'm thinking MTSU tomorrow night may be one of the easiest picks of the week. I may put some on their ML.

wal66 · 10-05-09, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by TWEETS

I'm thinking MTSU tomorrow night may be one of the easiest picks of the week. I may put some on their ML.

My program has them favored as an outright winner. I missed that one.

Dbldown11 · 10-05-09, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by wal66

My program has them favored as an outright winner. I missed that one.

Im starting to think that ur program and my brain are one in the same haha

wal66 · 10-05-09, 02:20 PM

I overlooked one game. My program also has Idaho as an outright winner. I have no knowledge of Idaho what so ever though or San Jose St for that matter

linglingfool · 10-05-09, 02:22 PM

From an Illinois fan, all I can say is stay far, far away from them. The line last week was +7 vs PSU, and they ended up losing by 18 (should have been more if not for garbage points at the end of the game).

Dbldown11 · 10-05-09, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I overlooked one game. My program also has Idaho as an outright winner. I have no knowledge of Idaho what so ever though or San Jose St for that matter

Here's what you need to know.....San Jose St. is bad, and Idaho is MUCH MUCH MUCH better than anyone thinks (just cause of their name and past performances). This line is a joke, just like them being dogs at home to Colorado St. last week.

This team can score....look what they did to Col. St. and NIU the past two weeks.

Dbldown11 · 10-05-09, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by linglingfool

From an Illinois fan, all I can say is stay far, far away from them. The line last week was +7 vs PSU, and they ended up losing by 18 (should have been more if not for garbage points at the end of the game).

Thanks for the insight. I don't feel all that great about it, but they arent going to lose all their home big ten games, and Mich. St. is coming off a big win and this could be a let down game. All the logic says take Mich. St. -4 in this one. But I've just got that feeling that this will be one of those games where everyone will be left scratching their heads and wondering how Illinois could win.

wal66 · 10-05-09, 02:33 PM

All I know is for the past two seasons I have been playing this program albeit with a minor adjustment due to one source no longer being available but it has a proven track record with me that when it selects a team to win opposite of the predicted favorite it happens more than not. So with Idaho and Midd Tenn St this week playing both isn't all that bad according to my history with this. It's generally more reliable when I don't anything about the teams in question because then I can't taint the view with perspective.

Dbldown11 · 10-06-09, 10:37 AM

Alright tonight I'm going to go with Mid. Tenn. St. +7.5 and the under 56 and a plays on the Midd. Tenn. St. ML at +240

Dbldown11 · 10-06-09, 11:04 AM

Man....looking at today's lines I've missed out on a lot of points by playing my plays so early. The vast majority of my plays have the line going the opposite direction of me. bummer

bigcat1 · 10-06-09, 11:34 AM

i was kinda doubting my middle tenn pick, but reading this makes me feel a little better...knowing if i lose i won't be the only one....So if i may ask why are you guyst taking middle tenn, my choices is usually by schedule and gut. lol

Dbldown11 · 10-06-09, 11:47 AM

same here. Midd. Tenn St. has is 3-1 with their lone loss being the season opener at Clemson. The won at Maryland which seems more impressive after what they did to Clemson last week. And other than that they beat up on Memphis and North Texas both fairly handily.

Troy on the other hand has embarrassing losses to Bowling Green, and Florida (can't blame em their, but coulda shown a little more), a home victory against a UAB team that hasn't really shown to be very good, and a squeaker win against Arkansas St. on the road.

From what I'm seeing these teams are pretty much dead even but if there is an edge I see midd. Tenn. St. having it.

So the fact that they are getting 7.5 in this spot makes em an easy pick in my eyes

wal66 · 10-06-09, 11:48 AM

Cat................99% of all my college plays are plays which my program dictates I play. If a game meets pre-determined value then it becomes a play. this game qualifies as a play. I haven't posted it as a play yet because I already have too many games this week. May end up on it before game time though.

DREEZY · 10-06-09, 12:57 PM

Wondering about:

Western Michigan +7.5*

The game will be in Toledo and Toledo has firepower, even though they almost lost to Ball St. at Ball St. Wouldn't they easy pick be Toledo here?

(Thanks for the Idaho pick last week, picking them this week again vs. SJST)

Dbldown11 · 10-06-09, 01:12 PM

You're welcome Dreezy, I like Idaho even more this week than I did last week.

As far as Western Michigan goes....Toledo is flat bad. They almost lost and probably should have lost to a really bad Ball St. team. They do have some firepower and will score some points, however they also have one of the worst if not the worst defenses in all of CFB. The fact that they are giving up over a touchdown is crazy. I think the main reason is because Western Mich. got blown out at NIU last week.

Western Mich. isnt that bad. It was NIU's homecoming for starters and NIU is a good team. They've got a road loss at Wisconsin by 8 and a home loss to Idaho (who as you know I think is highly underrated).

naturally nothing is a sure thing but I'd be shocked if Western Mich. lost this game by more than a touchdown. In fact I'll be pretty surprised if they lose straight up which is why I've got them BIG +7.5 and a decent amount on the ML as well. GL this week. Thanks for the post

DREEZY · 10-06-09, 01:38 PM

You bring up some good points there Dbl, I bet on TOL last week and nearly had a heart attack. I can't believe Ball St. almost won.

I was going to go TOL this week, but maybe I'll leave this game alone.

I will be with you on MINN and IDAHO. I want to jump on your TEMPLE ship, but I'm on the fence. If the line was a little lower...

Dbldown11 · 10-06-09, 01:43 PM

I'm on Temple because Ball St. really is bad and Temple has played very well the past two weeks, and like I pointed out last weekend when they were -7 at Eastern Mich. their loss to a DII school was to one of the better DII schools out there.

If you're not comfortable with Western Mich. don't take em, however my advice would be to stay away then and not put money on Toledo.

Another thing to look at is Toledo was what -4.5 at Ball St. and they barely won.....then Ball St. goes to Temple (a historically bad team and the public still has a perception that they are horrible) and the line comes out as Temple -14....If that's the only info I had I'd like Temple and Western Mich. this week, luckily I do more work than that and still like them both haha.

Good luck with whatever you go with this weekend (unless you decide to bet on Toledo)

Dbldown11 · 10-06-09, 02:23 PM

Ok after some thought and deliberation I'm doing it....

Ohio St. -16: I see a complete blowout here and Wisconsin brought back down to earth. They havnt playe too good all season, their offense has been able to keep up with a bad defense but that ends saturday.

They will have a hard time scoring on Ohio St., but Ohio St. won't have a hard to scoring on Wisky's horrible defense.

Dbldown11 · 10-08-09, 11:46 PM

Middle Tennessee St. +4.5
Nebraska -2.5*
Temple -14*
Western Michigan +7.5*
Idaho +4*
Indiana +6.5
Minnesota -4*
Marshall -3*
Oregon -6.5
Florida -9.5
Navy -13
Illinois +4
Syracuse +10
Arkansas +3
Alabama -6.5

Alright 1-1 so far for the week....1-0 on my * plays. Thought the weather was gonna get me tonight which was gonna aggrevate the hell out of me because i knew Nebraska is the superior team...but luckily once the rain died down in the 4th the truth came out. Also had the under in both of these games as well (posted in other threads), so 3-1...but we'll keep it simple and just go with what's here. Nothing going now till Saturday but looking forward to a big weekend.

micjhenr · 10-09-09, 12:12 AM

FYI... Toledo has their homecoming this week against W. Michigan.........

Originally posted by Dbldown11

You're welcome Dreezy, I like Idaho even more this week than I did last week.

As far as Western Michigan goes....Toledo is flat bad. They almost lost and probably should have lost to a really bad Ball St. team. They do have some firepower and will score some points, however they also have one of the worst if not the worst defenses in all of CFB. The fact that they are giving up over a touchdown is crazy. I think the main reason is because Western Mich. got blown out at NIU last week.

Western Mich. isnt that bad. It was NIU's homecoming for starters and NIU is a good team. They've got a road loss at Wisconsin by 8 and a home loss to Idaho (who as you know I think is highly underrated).

naturally nothing is a sure thing but I'd be shocked if Western Mich. lost this game by more than a touchdown. In fact I'll be pretty surprised if they lose straight up which is why I've got them BIG +7.5 and a decent amount on the ML as well. GL this week. Thanks for the post

Dbldown11 · 10-09-09, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by micjhenr

FYI... Toledo has their homecoming this week against W. Michigan.........

NIU is a good team and was up for their homecoming....Toledo is a bad team so it being their homecoming won't make them good. Their defense is still going to make all opposing offenses look like last years texas tech

fishmonger · 10-09-09, 12:17 AM

I Like this one too...

But I pulled the trigger to soon and got the line at +7.5. The line sits at +9.5 now. That I dont like.

Place more or let it ride at 7.5?

TheU · 10-09-09, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Ok after some thought and deliberation I'm doing it....

Ohio St. -16: I see a complete blowout here and Wisconsin brought back down to earth. They havnt playe too good all season, their offense has been able to keep up with a bad defense but that ends saturday.

They will have a hard time scoring on Ohio St., but Ohio St. won't have a hard to scoring on Wisky's horrible defense.

I see your liking the Buckeyes big here. I was thinking about taking Wisconsin +26 in a 10 point teaser. These two have played very close the last couple of times. Now, the Bucks may very well cover the -16, but I don't see them beating Wisky by no 26 points. What do you think?

Dbldown11 · 10-09-09, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by fishmonger

But I pulled the trigger to soon and got the line at +7.5. The line sits at +9.5 now. That I dont like.

Place more or let it ride at 7.5?

Whatever you're comfortable with...if you got the cash I'd say place more cause I think it's a very very solid pick. Plus the line is up 2 points, but according to SBR lines like 70% of people are on Toledo, so line movement makes sense. What doesnt make sense is 70% of people on a team as more than a touchdown favorite when they have one of the worst defenses in CFB.

Toledo is giving up 37.8 points per game and they gave up 52 to Purdue, 38 to Colorado, 31 to Florida Intl, and 30 to Ball St....none of those teams are very impressive. They do score, however the teams they've played with the exception of Ohio St. (who shut them out) don't really have the best defenses.

Western Mich. is 2-3 with their two wins being against the worst DI team and a DII team. However they lost @ Michigan, @ Indiana (not all that bad this year), and @ Northern Illinois (not as bad as people may assume)

Dbldown11 · 10-09-09, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by TheU

I see your liking the Buckeyes big here. I was thinking about taking Wisconsin +26 in a 10 point teaser. These two have played very close the last couple of times. Now, the Bucks may very well cover the -16, but I don't see them beating Wisky by no 26 points. What do you think?

Yeah 26 points is a lot, and I'd think thats pretty safe, I'm looking for Ohio St. to take it in the 17-21 point range

HoulihansTX · 10-09-09, 12:35 AM

I leaned Toledo, but they didn't make the cut for reasons stated above

Dbldown11 · 10-10-09, 09:41 AM

Only an hour and a half left till I'm out of commission for the rest of the day....olus my girlfriend is spending the day with her family....no chance I'm getting off the couch today. God I love football.

Good luck with all your plays everyone (unless they go against anything you see above)

SoonerGreg · 10-10-09, 10:46 AM

I'm with ya on Indiana but going oppo on the Florida game. Good Luck on the rest of your plays.

Dbldown11 · 10-10-09, 10:48 AM

Thanks Sooner...same to you.