Pags' Plays 10/32

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by MSUSpartan32

Iowa is MUCH more physical than MSU and may be the most physical team in the Big 10. I'd be surprised if Forcier finished this game. He has been dinged up or injured in 3 of their 5 games this season. Throw into the fact that it is a night game, in Iowa City, Michigan is coming off a tough road loss and it will be a nasty environment for those true freshmen QB's.

Exactly why Michigan is the play. Fade the public, especially on games that have this many things working against one team.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-06-09, 11:46 AM

Best of luck if that is your play RoagBettor. I don't get into any of the public plays or RLM or any of that. I look at the 2 teams, cap the game, and make my play regardless of how anyone else is playing it.

**Snevens88** · 10-06-09, 12:01 PM

someone wanna share any info on how the wisc line just jumped 2pts to +16 in the last hour

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by MSUSpartan32

Best of luck if that is your play RoagBettor. I don't get into any of the public plays or RLM or any of that. I look at the 2 teams, cap the game, and make my play regardless of how anyone else is playing it.

It's not my strategy for every game, but in certain situations it works for me.

BOL.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Snevens88

someone wanna share any info on how the wisc line just jumped 2pts to +16 in the last hour

That Wisconsin line has looked fishy to me since it came out. Originally I loved Wiscy as a play there....But that's too high a line WAY to high, and it struck me as being one of those where it's high for a reason. Wisconsin is probably gonna have a hard time scoring in this one, but Ohio St. will not because Wisconsin has no defense. I'm not touching either side, but if I had to I would deffinately be on Ohio St.

**GoSooners** · 10-06-09, 02:51 PM

BOL this week Pags

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 03:15 PM

DeluxeLiner,

you can look at the end of last week's thread to see my current record...

ShawnVanCover,

I think Georgia is a donkey play yes...wouldn't touch the game but also wouldn't be surprised to see Kiffin blow another win...

bigcat1,

appreciate your thoughts...

MSUSpartan32,

all good points here but I think you will be surprised with how competitive Saturday's game will be between Michigan and Iowa...

Snevens88,

am trying to find any injury info. but for now I'm thinking it's a syndicate play on Ohio State...

Dbldown11,

thanks for your thoughts...

gosooners,

thank you...

**icemantbi** · 10-06-09, 03:42 PM

Pags, really glad you are on Michigan. I was extremely impressed with their play against Michigan St. in the 2nd half of that game, and to come back to force OT, I said to myself Michigan will be on my short list of plays. Getting a TD + hook, LOVE IT! If I played only one game next week, it would be Michigan.

Liking Kentuky, Wisky and SMU as well next week. There is always a play that scares me, and it is definitely Colorado St. But, like last week with Miami, the scared play hits, so I'll be on them.

BOL man

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 03:53 PM

icemantbi,

completely agree with your thoughts on Michigan...

**detroit71** · 10-06-09, 05:22 PM

I like that you are finally getting comfortable betting on the Big Ten. I have made most of my big Parlay hits on conference games. I too like U of M and Wisconsin.
Here are my plays any feedback would be appreciated.
Missouri+3 Nebraska has not been tested.
Alabama-6.5 Come on Mississippi?
G Tech +2.5 too much defense
Oregon-1 Too much offense
Mich st-4.5 No Letdown

**Cougar Bait** · 10-06-09, 08:39 PM

Detroit,

Nebraska played Va. Tech...remember? FYI, Missouri's schedule: Illinois, Bowling Green, Furman, and Nevada...some real tough competition...Christ.

GL with your plays Pags, card looks real nice. You're gonna have a profitable week.

**BARTENDERAAG** · 10-06-09, 09:44 PM

Pags how you doing I am a new member I have been following your posts like your picks. What do you rhink about Alabama-6, Florida intl-3.5, Fresno st-9.5, and marshall at -4?

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 11:30 PM

detroit71,

thanks for your thoughts...

Cougar Bait,

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 11:34 PM

bartenderaag,

thanks for posting...I would not recommend any of those plays but GL

**BARTENDERAAG** · 10-06-09, 11:41 PM

Thanks pags I thought it was a little far fetched just wanted your opinion.

**Lilffkid** · 10-06-09, 11:55 PM

pags you still staying away from weekday games?...people keep telling me not to go against home dogs on Thursday and I would if I didnt like Nebraska so much I know even you wana jump on them lol.. Good luck this week, lets get paid

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 12:02 AM

liffkid,

my philosophy on weeknight games is to ask yourself if the game was played on Saturday would you still play it?...if so then play it, if not then don't...

**Snevens88** · 10-07-09, 01:17 AM

sorry pags...you said for now tho you were thinking its a syndicate play on OSU. what exactly did you mean by that?

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 01:26 AM

snevens,

no need to apologize...when I see lines move in the middle of the week during the day (not including Thursdays which is Dr. Bob day) on no injury news it has got be Billy Walter's type money that moves the market that much...Ohio is a known gambling state, and lines in the past with teams from that state have had major line moves (see the Toledo point shaving scandal)...I imagine the same people who were betting Cincy against Fresno are the same people betting this game...I could be wrong but that's my take...

**Snevens88** · 10-07-09, 02:03 AM

interesting...thanks for getting back to me. appreciated. On another subject. im sure ill understand more where your comin from when the write ups are finished but as far as the duke game goes...i found it somewhat surprising to see it on your card for this week. considering the historical nature of your selections, i guess i just found this one to not really fit the mold if you will. I'll digress. There is certainly little doubt that NC state has had their hands full this season and run into their fair share of trouble thus far. We can chalk their ugly loss to SC up to first week jitters among other factors of course. As far as last week goes...State was coming off a three game win streak and were yet to face an opponent on the road. Wake forest is certainly no foe to take lightly either. However, this team is fairly young, yet i think they play in one of the more underrated conferences. Heading back to their comfort zone at home, I think they use the loss their advantage and put up a pretty tough fight. Now...When it comes to Duke, particularly last week, not much else can be said but they gave one of the best teams in the country a hell of a run for their money. Duke has proven themselves a decent squad thru this point in the season, despite having a couple head-scratching losses that kinda stick out like a sore thumb...The reasons i felt so inclined to share my opinion on this selection tho are as follows. As to not fit the mold of your normal selection nature, i guess you could say what i meant was that what runs through my head when i see your selections is almost always first and foremost how did that team perform the previous week. For a good portion of the Northeast, The VT-Duke game last week was televised on a fairly popular network known as SNY from where i live. The duke game didnt only capture the attention of its viewers, but that of the national media as well. So much so that i mustve seen 10 updates or so as i was flipping through the other games that i had available. Sure you could say one of the top ten teams in the nation were involved and thus the heavy coverage. dont deny it. But...but...still doesnt go to say that ur usual class of a particular selection is one that is generally dismissed(For lack of a better term) in the minds of the general public and avg fan looking at that game. In so many words, i guess im just surprised to see that you went with a team that most anyone who watched college football last week could tell you put up a valiant effort in covering a tough line against a formidable opponent. i.e. the avg bettor is gonna be anxious to see how far Duke's mini run in the spotlight can go. All that being sad, i should state that i decided more or less when i first saw this line that i would forgo placing wager on this game. BOL tho on this and your other selections as well. appreciate the work.

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 02:53 AM

snevens,

great thoughts here...I'll have more for you on Thursday in my write-ups on the Duke game...

**Snevens88** · 10-07-09, 03:07 AM

sounds good sir

**marabdl86** · 10-07-09, 05:04 AM

Thanks so much for your picks Pags. Placed my bets on your suggestions. Hope to win, mother is dieing want to give her a vacation to remember

Thanks again for your hard work

Also for Thursday, if you had to pick who would you play Nebraska at -3 or Mizz at +3.

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 05:19 AM

marabdl86,

I am sorry to hear about your mother but I'm hopefuly you won't need gambling winnings to pay for her vacations as you never know how the ball will bounce...appreciate your kind words and GL...

**Bread** · 10-07-09, 06:43 AM

Amazing picks Pags. I love them. I will be SHOCKED if you lose more than one game this week.

This is OUR week Pags. Straight to the top, me and you, ma!

**namathfan** · 10-07-09, 09:21 AM

Pags...

When you put in your offers on Matchbook, are they always for the full amount you are going to bet on that game?

Do you ever "scale" in by putting say 75% of your bet in at one price and then leaving 25% or so at a better price if the line goes against you?

This week for example lines have...

Gone your way on Conn, Kentucky

Gone against you on Colo St, Michigan and Wisconsin

Just wondering if you have given that idea any thought.

With your success through the years I would think more often than not the lines move in your favor.

Thanks for sharing your efforts.

GL

**RoagBettor** · 10-07-09, 09:34 AM

Pags, I think you're going to have a big week. I can feel the momentum building!

**jholl** · 10-07-09, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Exactly why Michigan is the play. Fade the public, especially on games that have this many things working against one team.

well 68% to 70% of the public is ALL on Michigan... so either fade public or fade pags on this one

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 12:51 PM

bread,

namathfan,

thanks for your thoughts...my rule of thumb for me to be worth playing games early is to try to be ahead of the line move 66% of the time...over the years I've been able to do that but of course it does mean that I will get the worst of some numbers...just part of the style I've used the last several years...

roagbettor,

I'm thinking you're right...

jholl,

if you bet game strictly on public numbers that are out on Wed. I suggest getting more data to play a game than that...I get your point about "public dogs" but am not sure that Michigan qualifies as one yet...have you ever used sportsinsights?

**DanOmaha** · 10-07-09, 01:01 PM

Reposting for my own sanity....

Colorado St. +6.5 (+100) for 3 units
Michigan +7.5 (-102) for 3 units
Connecticut +8.5 (+100) for 3 units
Wisconsin +14 (-101) for 3 units
Kentucky +11.5 (-102) for 3 units
Duke +15 (+100) for 3 units
SMU +6.5 (+100) for 3 units

**jellobiafra** · 10-07-09, 03:51 PM

pags, I'm riding all your plays again this week. If you need any more insults to get you pumped, just let me know. I'm here for you.

**looseonthelead** · 10-07-09, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Snevens88

sorry pags...you said for now tho you were thinking its a syndicate play on OSU. what exactly did you mean by that?

Some times syndicate betting groups will manipulate a number one way early in the betting cycle while limits are low and books are quick to move them, then once limits are increased they come back in over the top for max limit bets. Walters is famous for this type of manipulation tactic and could be what happened here.Dosent mean they are always right by no means, but this number did break a key number when it touched 13 1/2 then they hammered it.

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 05:01 PM

jellobiafra,

you are a smart man...

looseonthelead,

completely agree...

**ackem19** · 10-07-09, 05:02 PM

pags11,

i'm fairly new here and i'm trying to improve at capping so feel the only way for me to get better is to ask questions. i've looked at your picks this week and one of the questions i have is, why UK? when i saw the spread yesterday i initally like UK but after looking at the game a little more, i jumped ship to SC. SC is 4-0 ATS and at home where they've had a lot of success. they are going into their 4th home game in a row and i expect them to be more in rhythm where as UK has to pack up and leave home after 3 straight home games. UK's best CB Trevard Lindly is doubtful which is going to hurt them in the passing game. that is what i gathered when i thought that SC would be a better pick. What are your thoughts?

**pags11** · 10-07-09, 05:07 PM

ackem,

I'll have my write-up for you on the game tomorrow night...