Pags' Plays 10/32

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 04:00 PM

cougar bait,

**xyzky** · 10-05-09, 04:00 PM

LOL, I am getting good at picking out what you plan on playing...

Bol this week!

**wal66** · 10-05-09, 04:02 PM

Don't know what it means Pags but we are both on Wisky, UConn and Kentucky. Either you're slippin or I'm getting better. lol

**xyzky** · 10-05-09, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Don't know what it means Pags but we are both on Wisky, UConn and Kentucky. Either you're slippin or I'm getting better. lol

For everyone's sake, I hope it's the second one...

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 04:10 PM

xyzky,

good to hear!...

wal66,

**clowncar** · 10-05-09, 04:30 PM

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 04:41 PM

Play Number Six:

Duke +15 (+100) for 3 units

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 04:42 PM

Play Number Seven:

SMU +6.5 (+100) for 3 units

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 04:45 PM

clowncar,

just trying to keep up with your sharp self sir...

**Club** · 10-05-09, 05:05 PM

Some good stuff this week. Some favorites are definitely overvalued this week. South Carolina was one that came to mind early on for me.

**brock** · 10-05-09, 05:13 PM

Have a good week Pags11. Thanks for posting.

**Bread** · 10-05-09, 06:48 PM

Hi Pags. Bread gots mad love for Pags11.

**twentyonekid** · 10-05-09, 07:01 PM

PAGS like the card so far buddy,lets keep up the winning ways....love the uconn play a lot,and after watching the bama/kentucky game this week them cats have some good fight in them,as long as they stay away from those turnovers they can be a nice team....good luck my friend

**pavyracer** · 10-05-09, 07:09 PM

How did hhsilver know pags11 picks this morning before pags11 released them?

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/240349-pags-has-been-banned-p2.html#post2334244

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Just for fun - I think I can predict his plays this week -- he posted only 1 so far (as of 8:25 am , monday) ...

duke ,,,, conn,,,wisc,,, ky,,,smu,,,mich ..

**TheSkeptic** · 10-05-09, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

How did hhsilver know pags11 picks this morning before pags11 released them?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...ml#post2334244

thats a great question!

In other news, i like kentucky,wisconsin,michigan...especially kentucky.

**JamesGenius** · 10-05-09, 09:12 PM

pags im am telling you now your going to have a great week, when me and you agree on a game its gotta be close to an 80% winner. LOVE wisconsin, and duke and i like michigan and colorado st GL to us this week pags it has a lot of promise

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 10:12 PM

Club,

brock,

you're welcome...

Bread,

mad love for you as well...

twentyonekid,

good thoughts...

pavyracer,

your Auburn play is a donkey play...hee haw...

JamesGenius,

**pavyracer** · 10-05-09, 11:17 PM

It's OK. Donkeys are more hung than raccoons.

**racebannon** · 10-05-09, 11:26 PM

Hey Pags,

Congrats on a winning week!
I respect you as a capper and I really enjoy your writeups each thursday.
One thing I don´t get though is why you even respond to those bashing you? I mean you´re just doing exactly what they want you too. Why even bother responding, especially in other threads than your own? The easiest way of getting rid of trolls is just to ignore them, or even better, be just as polite to them as to the rest of us, believe me, that will get them off way more than lowering yourself to their level.

As always, good luck this weekend, looking forward to the writeups.

**pags11** · 10-05-09, 11:29 PM

pavyracer,

the way you are measured in this business on being hung is by your profit margin at the end of the year...keep making plays like that and you will be in the shitter...figured you were smarter than to bet on Auburn this week, guess not...GL gus the donkey...

racebannon,

thank you very much for your thoughts...what I want you to understand is that I am a pretty crazy guy, I mean to put myself out here on the net posting my picks every week you have to be a little crazy...I actually get a lot of enjoyment out of berating my critics, but only do it once my work for the week is done...GL...

**fadethepublic1** · 10-06-09, 01:09 AM

Glad your UK & SMU bro. makes me feel even better. I meant to ask you... because we have some of the same plays & not all, why is that? I'm trying to figure out how you & VOR & Gyno & GoSooners & WahooS are all on the same page? do you work w/a computer model?? power ratings?? situations?? I just want to understand fully why you are playing a game that I clearly cannot see, i.e. duke +15 or wisky +15. I know road dogs in October do spectacular but is that why? stop me if i'm digging too deep but I just want to know as far as capping a game, how you came out w/wisky. my formula/computer model has Ohio St. winning by 15 pts. and that's w/the strength of schedule. but when i delete the strength of schedule, it gives me wisky winning SU or covering by a small number. could you let me in on some of your immeasurable knowledge. Thanks much and aloha from Hawaii pags.

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 01:28 AM

fadethepublic1,

great question...first off, I think most sharp players are attracted to similiar type of plays...that being said I have never ever talked with wahoo besides interacting with him on covers...I do talk to VOR after making my plays each week, usually not before...I talk to gosooners about once every three weeks on the phone about midweek, usually by the time I've made all of my plays...I do talk to gyno regularly and work very closely with him...

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 01:35 AM

fade,

as far as the Wisconsin play goes, when I saw it open at 16 it just presented supreme value to me...I think Ohio State is a great team but to give a good team like Wisconsin two scores falls right into my wheelhouse of plays...will have more for you on Thursday...

**madworld** · 10-06-09, 01:53 AM

So Pags do you think that Wisconsin this year is like N.C.State last year? It seems they are underdogs everyweek, but continue not only to cover spreads, but win straight up. I don't believe a win here is likely, but I love getting 2 td's. Good Luck to you!

**accuscoresucks** · 10-06-09, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by pags11

Play Number One:

Colorado St. +6.5 (+100) for 3 units

sorry pags im on the other side of this,intresting you would touch this at all,utah should take it by 15 or more
gl this week

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 03:02 AM

madworld,

yeah, something like that man...

accscoresucks,

respectfully disagree...

**jackpot269** · 10-06-09, 03:04 AM

GL this week pags and as always thanks for sharing your pics with us and as always look forward to your Wright ups and insight into the plays

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 03:32 AM

jackpot,

**lorraineperla** · 10-06-09, 03:43 AM

Hi i have seen nice picks from lastweek

Good luck this week also

**pags11** · 10-06-09, 03:44 AM

lorraineperla,

**DeluxeLiner** · 10-06-09, 06:00 AM

Pags, how are you doing thus far this year wins and losses? Best of luck this week sir, I am thinking about jumping on some of your dogs (probably closer to game time see if they move in our favor a bit)

**ShawnVanCover** · 10-06-09, 07:02 AM

Thanks pags...locked in on all.pags....do you think that the ga/tn line looks funny?heard some saying it was a trap.

**bigcat1** · 10-06-09, 07:14 AM

pags you are the man, most everbody says it, i say it too, but the kentucky pick again, look ky is bad...real bad..they my team and it pains me to say it, the only qb we have is a reciever..untill cobb comes back under center there will be lots of turnovers, i have made money off kentucky every week this year, i know that you are far more experianced in capping than i am

...spurrier owns kentucky...the bet would be for sc -11.5 or no play,..thank you and best of luck.....like the uconn pic

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-06-09, 07:28 AM

Some thoughts on the Michigan game.

Michigan is giving up 450 yards a game in Big 10 play in their two games vs. Indiana and Michigan State. It's tough to bet on that defense. There is one thing that I guess you really can't see in stats that would bother me about playing Iowa this week. They rushed 28 times for 28 yards last week. They were just physically beat up. RichRod has a smaller/quicker offensive line, which I know has worked for him in the past. However, they could not get any push or any run game at all last week. With 7 minutes left in the game (before the Mich comeback), State had nearly 400 yards of offense and Michigan had 87. 87 yards.....

Iowa is MUCH more physical than MSU and may be the most physical team in the Big 10. I'd be surprised if Forcier finished this game. He has been dinged up or injured in 3 of their 5 games this season. Throw into the fact that it is a night game, in Iowa City, Michigan is coming off a tough road loss and it will be a nasty environment for those true freshmen QB's. If I was playing Michigan I would be holding my breath that:

1. They will be physical enough
2. They will be able to run the ball
3. Their defense shows up
4. They can handle the environment

**Cougar Bait** · 10-06-09, 10:58 AM

Pat Angerer is a huge part of that Iowa D. If he's out, I think that's a big help to Michigan's ability to spread them out.