(9/17-9/19) GiveMeaBJ's NCAAF

GiveMeaBJ · 09-17-09, 10:46 PM

Week 3: 2-0 (+2.00 Units)

williams22 · 09-17-09, 10:49 PM

Nice job, any thoughts on Fresno/Boise?

GiveMeaBJ · 09-17-09, 10:58 PM

Boise State -7 (-115) to win 1.5 Units

GiveMeaBJ · 09-17-09, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by williams22

Nice job, any thoughts on Fresno/Boise?

Well this Boise team is clearly the better team this year. They have matched a very solid offense with what appears to be a very solid defense this year. Probably, one of the better defenses they have had in recent years. Remember back in 2001? Fresno had aspirations of a BCS bid until Boise St rolled into town and dashed those dreams. Since that night Boise has won every meeting except in 2005 and have won those meetings by an average of 24 ppg. They have ownership papers over this team, it doesn't matter where the game is held they have been world-beaters winning @ Fresno numerous times. Add into that their big wins in bowls and against BCS teams and it gets really hard to fade this team. They know Fresno State is the only team on the schedule keeping them from a perfect season. They also know the schedule is weak and BCS polls will indicate this and they need to beat these teams by some big scores. They need to whip the WAC and prove they are a team that could compete in the BCS. I expect Moore to come out with the foot on the pedal and not stop until Fresno throws in the towel.
Boise St 34, Fresno 10

REDL1NE · 09-17-09, 11:11 PM

I agree with Boise. Not even close IMO. What are your thoughts on KU/Duke and OSU/Rice.
I took BYU and got it at 7.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-17-09, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by REDL1NE

I agree with Boise. Not even close IMO. What are your thoughts on KU/Duke and OSU/Rice.
I took BYU and got it at 7.

First of all I think that BYU bet is a good bet.

KU/Duke is a tough one. I like Kansas a lot this year but I am still not sure what to make of Duke yet. Reesing has shredded much better defenses then this Duke defense in the past and I think they can put up points against almost anybody. It's tough to back Duke with as many questions I have about their squad this year. But remember they played very tough last year and kept it within in the number against some very tough opponents covering @ Va Tech, @ Wake, @ Vandy and home vs UNC. You just never know what your getting and I think the score falls very close to the number. Their is just no value in this line IMO. A 28-10 final wouldn't surprise me but neither would a 45-10 final.

OSU/Rice spread is too high to touch. Flipping a coin would be an effective method to capping this game. 32.5 points your going to have to lay with a team with a soft defense. OSU hasn't showed me anything this year. They were "supposed" to be a Big 12 contender and even the win against Georgia is a game I feel like they should have and could have lost but they got a few breaks. I would stay as far away from this game as possible. Rice is garbage and OSU will get their points but 33 is a lot to ask if Rice can get a few scores against a weak defense.

REDL1NE · 09-17-09, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

First of all I think that BYU bet is a good bet.

KU/Duke is a tough one. I like Kansas a lot this year but I am still not sure what to make of Duke yet. Reesing has shredded much better defenses then this Duke defense in the past and I think they can put up points against almost anybody. It's tough to back Duke with as many questions I have about their squad this year. But remember they played very tough last year and kept it within in the number against some very tough opponents covering @ Va Tech, @ Wake, @ Vandy and home vs UNC. You just never know what your getting and I think the score falls very close to the number. Their is just no value in this line IMO. A 28-10 final wouldn't surprise me but neither would a 45-10 final.

OSU/Rice spread is too high to touch. Flipping a coin would be an effective method to capping this game. 32.5 points your going to have to lay with a team with a soft defense. OSU hasn't showed me anything this year. They were "supposed" to be a Big 12 contender and even the win against Georgia is a game I feel like they should have and could have lost but they got a few breaks. I would stay as far away from this game as possible. Rice is garbage and OSU will get their points but 33 is a lot to ask if Rice can get a few scores against a weak defense.

Thanks BJ! I'll be staying away from that KU game. I was initially attracted to it, but you bring up some valid points. Like you said OSU will get their points, but their defense just got shown up by Houston. Who BTW was a bit impressive!

DAVID28352 · 09-18-09, 08:45 AM

Boise st better team

williams22 · 09-18-09, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Well this Boise team is clearly the better team this year. They have matched a very solid offense with what appears to be a very solid defense this year. Probably, one of the better defenses they have had in recent years. Remember back in 2001? Fresno had aspirations of a BCS bid until Boise St rolled into town and dashed those dreams. Since that night Boise has won every meeting except in 2005 and have won those meetings by an average of 24 ppg. They have ownership papers over this team, it doesn't matter where the game is held they have been world-beaters winning @ Fresno numerous times. Add into that their big wins in bowls and against BCS teams and it gets really hard to fade this team. They know Fresno State is the only team on the schedule keeping them from a perfect season. They also know the schedule is weak and BCS polls will indicate this and they need to beat these teams by some big scores. They need to whip the WAC and prove they are a team that could compete in the BCS. I expect Moore to come out with the foot on the pedal and not stop until Fresno throws in the towel.
Boise St 34, Fresno 10

I agree wholeheartedly. I will be with you on Boise St. tonight!

weezy · 09-18-09, 10:41 AM

I agree that Boise is the far superior team but why is the line moving down from 10. That much money really going on Fresno?? Something seems fishy about this.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by weezy

I agree that Boise is the far superior team but why is the line moving down from 10. That much money really going on Fresno?? Something seems fishy about this.

I don't think the line opened at 10, I am seeing that it opened at 8.

weezy · 09-18-09, 11:22 AM

Ok I could of misread somewhere. Even so is there more action going on Fresno?

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by weezy

Ok I could of misread somewhere. Even so is there more action going on Fresno?

No actually when I looked earlier today their was a significant amount of money coming in on Boise State. It is scary to against a line that moves down when people take the other side but I had this game pegged from the start of the week and rarely will I keep off of a game because of a one point line move. That being said I will still be glued to my TV set for the first half evaluating and seeing at half if I should buy out if the oppurtunity presents itself.

weezy · 09-18-09, 02:22 PM

So is it that the books want you to think more action coming in on Fresno?

weezy · 09-18-09, 02:24 PM

I am going to take Boise regardless they have made me a boatload of money over the past few seasons. They really are a underated and under respected team. They get no respect when all they do is kill teams week in and week out.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by weezy

So is it that the books want you to think more action coming in on Fresno?

That is an interesting way of looking at it but no. In my many years of betting I have never heard of it. I am not a big guy on reading lines but to me that means their is bigger money coming in on Fresno. This number is still 7.5 across the board except for a few books so I am not going to try to read deep into this half point line move. I feel like their is a little bit of sharp money on Fresno but not enough to warrant anything significant. I think this line will stay right here, with the books rooting for the under and Fresno. I think they will be very satisfied when Boise and the under cashes.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 11:30 PM

Week 3: 3-0 (+3.50 Units)

Played a lot of games for tomorrow earlier in the week will post them in a few hours.

REDL1NE · 09-19-09, 12:15 AM

I was leaning toward Oklahoma with a back door cover and Tech getting the points!

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 01:34 AM

Starting things off with:

Boston College +7 (-103) to win 1 Unit
I believe Boston College is one team that is very underrated despite thier quarterback situation. Justin Tuggle and Dave Shinskie both have looked capable of controlling this offense with Tuggle being my favorite of the two. He is a little more mobile and appears to be a more complete quarterback but both will see time. By the way, just let me say a two quarterback rotation is something I absolutley despise. BC also has three running backs then can get the job done with Montel Harris leading the pack. Harris has impressed me this year and expect this running game to be the focal point of the offense. Clemson always has a stingy defense but I beleive they are a bit weaker this year then they have been in a few years. They seem undisciplined to me which should open up some holes for these backs to find.

I think the promoting of defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani to head coach has made an always solid defensive team just that much better. The main focus will be containing CJ Spiller. Spiller is one of the most explosive backs in the nation but I think BC is capable of slowing him which is a key factor in this game. This is always a hard fought game from both teams and I am expecting BC's defense to keep this very, very close.
Clemson 23, Boston College 22

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 01:37 AM

Penn State -17 (-120) 1st Half to win 1 Unit
Penn State owns Temple. Temple won't be able to score and Penn St can pick this score. 28-0 at half sounds like a plan. I'm not going to waste your time with meaningless stats here. Temple is outclassed.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 01:47 AM

East Carolina/North Carolina Under 44.5 to win 1 Unit
This North Carolina defense is extremley impressive. They are big, fast, and tough and they have played great to start the year. The offense of the Tarheels however, is still under construction. They seem to be missing Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate more then expected and TJ Yates has struggled early this year. They had just 3 points late in the 4th quarter last week against Connecticut before adding a touchdown and a safety to bring thier point total to 12. This East Carolina team always plays fundemental defense and special teams and you can bet they got an earful after giving up 35 to WVU last week. I'm expecting a slow game with a lot of mised oppurtunities and drives being stalled.
UNC 25, East Carolina 13

Minnesota +14 (-115) to win 2 Units
Huge game for Minnesota, they have been extremley unimpressive the first two weeks of the year nearly losing to both Syracuse and Air Force. But, the bottom line is they won those games. They are coming home where they always seem to play tough. California is going through the exact opposite. They have dominated the first two weeks and completley embarrassed Maryland in the opener but now they go onto the road where they played terrible football last year. It won't help they are coming to play in Minnesota at 12 ET and they may come out of the gate a little sluggish. Kind of like they did last year when they flew to Maryland for an early morning game and got spanked. Expect a rough crowd and a tough defense to slow this Cal attack early on and they stay within the 14.
California 27, Minnesota 23

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 01:51 AM

As for later in the day:
Oregon -5 (-110) to win 1 Unit
Florida/Tennessee Over 52 (-105) to win 1 Unit
WVU/Auburn Under 54 (-105) to win 2 Units
Arkansas -2 (-108) to win 2 Units

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 03:03 AM

Also:

Cincinatti +1.5 (-109) to win 2 Units

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 08:24 AM

I am adding four more units to my Fla total making this a max-play for me

Florida/Tennessee Over 52 (-105) to win 5 Units Total
You know what Urban Meyer is a dickhead. He kicked a late FG to cover against Miami last year and took late timeouts in a 49-10 lead against Georgia because he felt slighted from the year before when the whole Georgia squad ran on the field to celebrate a touchdown. Now you have a Tennnessee team providing bulletin board material all week and Lane Kiffin starting in the off-season about how they will beat Florida in the swamp. On top of that he attacked Urban Meyer himself claiming dirty recruiting tactics. You think a celebration pissed Urban off? What do you think will happen when you tell Tebow he is going to lose AND attack Urban. I think Florida can pick thier score and will stay on the gas pedal for 60 minutes, literally. I wouldn't be shocked if they were punching it in up 40 points with 10 seconds left in the game. They are the better team and I don't expect Tennessee to lay down. They will put up a few points but I think Florida will open up a big lead and just keep pouring it on. This is my first max-play of the 2009 season.
Florida 56, Tennessee 14

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 12:32 PM

Remaining:
Oregon -5 (-110) to win 1 Unit
Florida/Tennessee Over 52 (-105) to win 5 Units
WVU/Auburn Under 54 (-105) to win 2 Units
Arkansas -2 (-108) to win 2 Units
Boston College +7 (-103) to win 1 Unit
East Carolina/North Carolina Under 44.5 to win 1 Unit
Minnesota +14 (-115) to win 2 Units
Cincinatti +1.5 (-109) to win 2 Units

Final:
Penn State -17 (-120) 1st Half to win 1 Unit

Week 3: 4-0 (+4.50 Units)

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 12:38 PM

Penn State 2nd Half -11 (-120) to win 1 Unit
North Carolina 2nd Half -3 (-120) to win 1 Unit

Housemoney · 09-19-09, 12:42 PM

I am on Oregon and the Florida over too.

Good Luck.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 02:19 PM

Remaining:
Oregon -5 (-110) to win 1 Unit
Florida/Tennessee Over 52 (-105) to win 5 Units
WVU/Auburn Under 54 (-105) to win 2 Units
Arkansas -2 (-108) to win 2 Units
Boston College +7 (-103) to win 1 Unit
Cincinatti +1.5 (-109) to win 2 Units

Final:
Penn State -17 (-120) 1st Half to win 1 Unit
Minnesota +14 (-115) to win 2 Units
Penn State 2nd Half -11 (-120) to win 1 Unit
East Carolina/North Carolina Under 44.5 to win 1 Unit
North Carolina 2nd Half -3 (-120) to win 1 Unit

Week 3: 5-2 (+3.20 Units)