Two factors: questions/opinions

[Daisydog]

The biggest crock I think is the "revenge factor." You don't think Michigan wants to beat Ohio State or Cal wants to beat USC after being owned every year? Revenge is the biggest b.s. motive in handicapping games. Some teams just own others. Conversely, once a team knows and realizes it belongs on the same field as the other, it will be a tight game. So I look more at how competitive the programs are with each other than "revenge." Too much emotion is a bad thing too sometimes in sport.

One piece of lore I have heard is that "teams that win cover 70% of the time." Any stat geeks know the real stat? Seems a little on the high side to me.

Anyway, have a great first week of college football.

[larojoes]

The revenge factor is a valid one, but it is probably misapplied more often than not. One has to be selective in using it. As you say, some teams own others, so revenge can't be considered a factor in lopsided series. There are many other spots where revenge is truly at work and can motivate a team to an extraordinary performance. Ostensibly, it is far less relevant in the NFL.

As for the stat you cite about the frequency of outright winners beating the spread, I have seen the same figure. It does seem hard to believe, but apparently it's true. If I'm not mistaken, the figure was around 80% for outright winners in the NFL last year. In other words, the poinstspread is a bit more important in determining ATS winners in the college ranks than in the pros.

[Pokerjoe]

That is a classic example of a stat that sounds important but is actually completely meaningless.