NCAAF Capping Statistics (Question)

[hova24e]

What statistics are MOST important when capping a college football game? I'm a novice capper at the moment and looking to get better. Are there any simple "systems" that I can use?

[laxdjock]

Unfortunately, there is no decent system...or we'd all be rich!

I think everyone has their own brew.....some better than others.

[stats13]

it isn't about statistics, its about where the team's head is at.

a former bookie told me once the best way to cap is to get an entire season schedule, and work backwards, circling games BEFORE bigger games and then treading lightly on them. i laughed him off, that was a few years ago, now i realize he was deadnutzon with what he was saying.

it's all about situations. you gotta find the angry teams that will be focused. there's a difference between it and being angry and dysfunctional.

all.
about.
situations.

[Justin7]

You can't cap a game with stats without looking at a lot of them. Trying to focus on just one (or even 5) is a recipe for disaster.

[MartinBlank]

Justin sum'd it up pretty good.

A set of numbers can be meaningless if not placed into context.

For example.....How well does a team run the football against how well their opp stops the run. More----stats can be misleading.

Take Nevada. Their run defense numbers were not horrible---but they were ranked dead last in pass defense. Teams found that out and exploited it.

When using numbers---I urge you to gauge as many sets as you can find. Tough to do with the volume of games available to the guy who likes college football.

[stats13]

where you gotta be real careful is looking just at past scores. hell a defense coulda put up 28 pts on turnovers and if the team scored 35 they really scored like 7, or maybe 14-21 if you consider the d did the job for the offense. either way its different than just chalking htem up for 35

[hova24e]

Thanks for the feedback guys. I would never rely on stats alone, but I think that taking stats into consideration would improve my capping............................

[irishstuey]

I've found sticking to teams that I know fairly well and watch frequently has helped. There are all kinds of small variables that can really change the way I look at a line. Home field, how far the other team has to travel to play, southern school playing in cold weather, weather alone, etc...

I know those variables should be reflected in the lines already, but usually I can find a couple that look outta whack each week. I've been very successful when I don't get outta hand and bet on 10 different games a week and don't do enough DD.

Plus, looking at stats isn't going to help much until mid to late season.

[larojoes]

I'll be using stats in a math model as of Week 5 this year, a week later than I started using them last year. Especially in college football, I think it's important to consider the numbers a team has put up relative to the opponents it has played. As mentioned above, those numbers have to have some context to be meaningful. Also, I agree that situational factors/scheduling dynamics are very important to take into account when handicapping college games.

[SexyMit]

I think the situations is the best way to go in college. Some stats from yrs before are useless sometimes cause the teams change yr after yr.

[stats13]

i've been screwed many a time betting a real high over when the numbers dictate both teams SHOULD score a lot and for some reason they both play in the 20s.

[SexyMit]

Yes I just posted something about that in my WNBA thread about 2 hrs ago actually! 2 high powered offenses take the under, 2 stout defenses take the over!

[cakasmaloy]

helpful thread, thanks!

[BiffTFinancial]

while i agree with a lot of the sentiments above about situations and keeping stats in context (both early-season and year-to-year. year-to-year being arguably irrelevant), and that you cannot cap a game with stats alone, i've always found that rush YPC and YPG (both for and against) are pretty powerful, particularly when there's a large disparity/mismatch between 2 opponents. particularly in CFB, one team can blow another off the field if it controls the ground game, and rushing dominance is a sign of being able to control the clock and the game in the 2H. i look for numbers pretty far from the median before i afford them much weight though (< 3.5 ypc, > 4.4-4.5 ypc, < 120-125 ypg, > 175 ypg), so i don't view a team averaging 140 rush ypg as being appreciably worse than one averaging 160. where any stat falls far from the median, it can be taken to represent either a natural strength or a point of emphasis for coaches. either way, if you focus on statistical mismatches, you're probably focused on what the coaches are to win the game (dominant rushing team vs bad rush defense will always want to run 40 times to win). you also have to be careful not to view these too simplistically and bear in mind against whom the stats were amassed (ie, navy and AF rushing dominance doesn't mean that they would be able to compete with Big 12 teams, as they play completely different brand of football than texas, texas tech, et al.).

when it comes to passing, YPA (both for and against) seems much more important than raw passing YPG, again because most good CFB teams are controlling the game with the run in the 2H while inflated passing yards may simply be the result of trailing often. i still view these as less persuasive than rushing stats for CFB capping purposes.

stat to which i tend to afford too much weight is turnovers. not that turnovers are not important, but they're so unpredictable and come in bunches.

[larojoes]

I don't believe any game statistics from the previous year should be used in handicapping the following year's games, which means the handicapper needs to rely on other methods for the first 4 weeks of the season. Early-season stats can also be skewed by games against Div.I-AA opponents; these stats should be discounted. I agree with Biff that rushing ypg and ypc are two of the most important in college football. I also look at yards per point gained and allowed, again, relative to the opponents' average allowed and gained. I've heard that YPP is better applied to pro football handicapping, but I believe it's also a solid indicator in the colleges if misleading numbers aren't included. As for turnovers, they should be considered as well, but they don't get a lot of weight in my system because of their unpredictability. I do consider it an edge for a team if they are going into a game with a negative turnover differential for the season and their opponent has a positive TOD.

[cocknocker]

Situational betting combined with line movement and trends are the best way to. I saw where another poster indicated that you look at the complete schedule and then circle those games prior to the big games and then tread lightly or fade the teams prior to those big games. Or fading teams that played overtime the week before and are favored on the road the following week. Or playing on a team in the first half after back to back unsuccessful road games in conference and there is no moneyline assigned ot he first half. You know things like that are situationions I love betting because most often they are trendy and current all at the same time. You cannot handicap individual games without knowing the teams' schedule before hand. You may be betting on a "sandwich" game and not knowing it.

Watch the line movement for a few days and look for movement in your direction. Then check the prospective game notes and injury reports as well as the local papers for both schools to find out if the game will be a sell out or is there a player who got in trouble for stealing a radio or playstation, or if the weather will be bad, etc. Identifying line movement will make you a 50% winner. Knowing WHY the line is moving will make you a 65% player, which is all that you need to keep the lights on.

Trend work is vital as well and it is a good way to guage how a team will handle the situation that it is in, whether it be a home dog or how the particular team performs on turf, etc. You want to know that this coach has a style that will help his team avenge bad losses. You want to know that this particular team always goes under when the total is 50 or more when they are at home and the public is 75% on the over yet the line goes down with reverse movement...

There is no set way to cap games. But there is a standard that you must set in order to play a game. If that standard is met in 10 games, try to whittle it down to half of that for games you will actually play. One way to kill off some of the plays is to take only the teams that have the best +/- margins on them that have met your criteria.

Another way to become good is to not parlay games. However, the funny thing is that a bettor can formulate a parlay from the games he/she like the most, right? Well if they were to take those games that they parlayed and played them ALL STRAIGHT AS WELL, I think that theybettor will be pleasantly surprised with the results. So many times idiots will have a five teamer that has 4 teams win and then that one play tears the ticket. Well what if that person played all of them straight and was 4-1 on straights with a small parly that was lost. I think that they would be happy with the results. Never parlay what you haven't already played straight. The straight bet is the professionals' bread and butter.

[hova24e]

Great info guys, I appreciate it...................................... ............more opinions are appreciated however..................