One spread this week appears to good to be true. What am I missing?

[dculh]

North Carolina 4-3 @ #11 Notre Dame 6-1. Game is at South Bend and ND's QB is playing. Their best defensive player is out. The line is currently ND -3 1/2 -160 on the ML. North Carolina is 0-2 in road games this season. This is a down year for ND and they have problems on the offensive line but they just easily beat USC and Wisconsin. Does anyone have a good reason why I should not take ND on the money line at -160?

Here's the latest Sagarin ratings:

Notre Dame #8 85.78 SOS # 6
North Carolina #42 75.42 SOS # 59

When you add in the 3 points for home field advantage it means ND should be a 13 point favorite. Obviously that seems way to high. I thought the spread would be similar to the USC spread which was Notre Dame -7.


In no way am I saying this is a lock because obviously it's not. I just don't understand the line.

[RM Logic]

Another is Wisconsin -3.5 over Iowa. I know they are at home but Mertz just sucks at QB and Iowa is a better team coming off a bye.

[saeker]

Clemson -10 vs Fla St.
I think it should be Fla St -10
But i will gladly take it. :-)

[dculh]

No disrespect but this game is nowhere near the ND vs North Carolina game. According to Sagarin Clemson has a power rating of 82.22. Florida State is 72.29. Clemson is therefore 10 points better on a neutral field. The reason I started the thread is because the power ratings have Notre Dame much higher rated than North Carolina.

[shopbar picks]

My favorite bet this week

[dculh]

Does anyone have some good data/information on why I should not bet Notre Dame on the money line? Higher ranked team, better record, playing at home, better players, etc. What am I missing?

[JacketFan81]

UNC coming off a bye. Notre Dame has outgained their opponents (yardage wise) exactly twice all year, despite only losing to Cincy all year. If it's me, I'm going the other way. But I won't play this game for sure.

[Renegades]

Why is kentucky only -1 at miss st? Another odd line.

[Renegades]

Back to UNC game. I cant trust unc. Their O line is shaky. Howell has been erratic all yr and their defense is avg at best. ND offense hasnt been great though

[dculh]

Final score

#11 Notre Dame 44
North Carolina 34

I hope some of you bet Notre Dame on the ML. Like I said this spread made no sense even though North Carolina came very close to covering.

[Seattle Slew]

Notre Dame has had funny lines all year. This one was obvious, good call. I backed off at the last minute.

ND was getting a touchdown against Wisconsin and getting +1 at Virginia Tech. They won all three of those fishy lines.

Final score

#11 Notre Dame 44
North Carolina 34

I hope some of you bet Notre Dame on the ML. Like I said this spread made no sense even though North Carolina came very close to covering.

[dculh]

Good comments Seattle. Notre Dame is having a good season for what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.

[jtoler]

bet dame a few times myself figured because of the line it wouldnt be that easy and it wasnt till the end