SoonerBS Week #1 Plays

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  • SoonerBS
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-26-08
    • 518

    #1
    SoonerBS Week #1 Plays
    Guys, some of you know me and some do not. I have been posting on here since last season although I have my own forum and post most of my thoughts there. I don't know how often I will post my plays on here, but I am for the first week anyway. Pags 11 posts all his plays on this forum and I mostly post my plays on my forum, but we both enjoy sharing info and reading posts on several forums. I put up some thoughts on teams, conferences and "play-on" games on my Blog and you can read some good info on there. SBR even posted some of the write-ups on their home page during the Summer.

    I will be adding more to this thread as the ensuing week goes along leading up to the first games. I have not secured all my bets yet and will not add the play until I have. Once I have all my plays and write-ups finalized, you will be able to locate them in this thread or you can see a more complete list in my Blog as I will post them there.

    You are welcome to always agree, disagree, discuss or leave info on games in my thread. I want us all to win money this season.






    Minnesota -6.5 for 5 UNITS -- I had to bet this now as it keeps getting worse and worse for Syracuse. I will write more on this play later, but the bottomline is that we know how bad they were last season and they have had 23 players, some of them starters, leave the program since the hiring of the new coach. Add another starter to the list today as their starting linebacker, Derek Hines, left the team. There is very little talent on this team and now there is very little depth. Minnesota may be a fade later, but they are bringing back 17 starters off a 7-6 team from last year and this should be an easy cover even if it is on the road.

    Oregon +5.5 for 3 UNITS -- I'll get into some more specifics on this game later. I considered and already listed this game as good value bet on the ML, but I decided to play the points because 4 other handicappers I respect highly are all on Oregon in this spot -- GoSooners, Conan, UOweDucks and pags11. I see their reasoning and agree. You need to get on it, too. I'm sure GoSooners will be posting his reasons on this game soon, so check out his thread.

    Colorado -9.5 (-130) FOR 3 UNITS -- Guys, I have been watching this game for about a month as I think Colorado will be improved this year and they finally have their linemen healthy. They still have not decided on a starting QB between Hawkins and Hansen, but whoever they go with will be experienced and decent. Both QBs have been taking equal snaps in practice. Coach Hawkins latest report was that he was pleased with the progress of the offense and defense and the coaching staff had decided on who the playmakers were going to be for their team, so they could start deciding on what schemes were going to work best.

    There are three factors though that have me taking this play:

    1.) Last year this game was played on a neutral field and Colorado was favored by -11. They ended up winning the game by 21 points and covering the line. This year, the game is being played at Boulder and Colorado is a better team while CSU is not quite as good as they were last season.

    2.) Colorado will be a much improved running team this year with their stud RBs having a year's experience and the offensive line finally being healthy. That is bad for a CSU defense who allowed their opponents 5.3 ypc last season. With 3 new defensive linemen in the starting rotation for CSU and 2 new LBs, improvement does not look promising.

    3.) An article today mentioned that CSU has not only NOT decided on a starting QB yet, but they actually called up one of their former QBs who had been playing WR to start working with the 1st and 2nd team offenses (See article posted in this thread on pg. 2, post #48). With less than two weeks left before their opening game, this looks like a desperate move on CSU's coaching staff.

    This is shaping up to be a very good bet, guys, get on it!

    UTEP -6.5 (-130) for 2 UNITS -- It was going to be a tough season for Buffalo anyway after losing their great QB from last year, Drew Willy. Their only other hope for offense was heavily placed on their RB, James Stark, who averaged close to 5 ypc last year and racked up 1,333 yards on the season. Today, it was reported that Starks is injured and will not be able to play this season. His college career is done. So is Buffalo's season pretty much having to break in a new QB, new RB and new offensive line all in the same season.

    UTEP's offense is ahead of schedule according to latest reports and they are expected to be very good. The line jumped a whole point today on news of Stark's injury so I had to buy a point to keep this under a TD. UTEP's defense is a typical CUSA conference defense -- which means it is not special -- but I don't think Buffalo will be able to exploit it at all. This should cover easily!

    I might add some money to this next week.
  • first48
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-18-09
    • 250

    #2
    GOOD LUCK THIS SEASON SOONER!! Don't know how you guys do those huge write-ups but there great...,,,,,GL! Any insight on ohio st???
    Comment
    • riggs
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 1100

      #3
      Like em all Sooner, BOL.
      Comment
      • CaneDawg
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-25-08
        • 6256

        #4
        love the minny pick
        Comment
        • SoonerBS
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-26-08
          • 518

          #5
          Originally posted by first48
          GOOD LUCK THIS SEASON SOONER!! Don't know how you guys do those huge write-ups but there great...,,,,,GL! Any insight on ohio st???
          I'm considering a play on Navy. Navy has done really well in the dog roll, they love playing on the road and play some of their best games on the road (they get to sleep in on game day, I've read players' interviews) and Tressel will not likely run the score up on Navy too high before he puts in the subs for two reasons:

          1.) This is a military school and the PR office for Ohio State has already put out a video plea for the fans to "cheer" Navy whenever they come into the stadium out of respect for our military men. It will be vary unlikely for Tressel to run Navy into the ground and Tressel is not really good to bet on to cover big spreads anyway as he does not do this often.

          2.) Ohio State will have USC on deck . . . .


          By the way: Long write-ups don't make the play any better. I simply like to write down my explanations for making a certain play and nothing more. I've seen too many posters write a write-up for the sole purpose of trying to impress people. Don't get too enamored with write-ups excpt to see if the reasoning is sound.

          Comment
          • james4512
            SBR MVP
            • 10-27-08
            • 3707

            #6
            i do also like all your plays GL
            Comment
            • xyzky
              SBR MVP
              • 08-23-07
              • 1577

              #7
              Originally posted by SoonerBS
              I'm considering a play on Navy. Navy has done really well in the dog roll, they love playing on the road and play some of their best games on the road (they get to sleep in on game day, I've read players' interviews) and Tressel will not likely run the score up on Navy too high before he puts in the subs for two reasons:

              1.) This is a military school and the PR office for Ohio State has already put out a video plea for the fans to "cheer" Navy whenever they come into the stadium out of respect for our military men. It will be vary unlikely for Tressel to run Navy into the ground and Tressel is not really good to bet on to cover big spreads anyway as he does not do this often.

              2.) Ohio State will have USC on deck . . . .
              Everyone should wait till it hits 24+, I am pretty confident it will get there.
              Comment
              • Cheme82
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-03-08
                • 7823

                #8
                Good luck this season bro, thanks for sharing your stuff.
                Comment
                • pags11
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 08-18-05
                  • 12264

                  #9
                  for those of you who haven't read soonerbs's stuff before, he is one of the better cappers out there in all of the 'net...we are fortunate to have him posting here...good luck week one soonerbs...
                  Comment
                  • SoonerBS
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 08-26-08
                    • 518

                    #10
                    Thanks, guys, and good luck to all of you . . .

                    xyzky, from looking at your avatar, you need to keep your hands out of the cookie jar, or pass the cookies around and share with the rest of us . . . . .
                    Comment
                    • xyzky
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-23-07
                      • 1577

                      #11
                      I wish that was me and my hand. But, that is Brian Urlacher and some blond with huge boobies!!
                      Comment
                      • redore33
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-09-09
                        • 198

                        #12
                        Where'n the hell are you finding CU @ that #? WA is 11 or 10-! Yeah I love it too @ 9-!!
                        Comment
                        • BGS 9.5
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-10-08
                          • 4628

                          #13
                          Cash money partner
                          Comment
                          • Cougar Bait
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-04-07
                            • 18282

                            #14
                            I like Minnesota and Oregon also, and will likely be on them with you. Read your write-ups earlier and enjoyed the info. I'll be posting my plays next week sometime. GL!
                            Comment
                            • SoonerBS
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 08-26-08
                              • 518

                              #15
                              Originally posted by redore33
                              Where'n the hell are you finding CU @ that #? WA is 11 or 10-! Yeah I love it too @ 9-!!
                              I found it at -10.5 and bought a point. That's why I have the juice at -130. I'm not afraid to buy a point on a line if it will get me under a key point. I certainly don't think I'll need it, but I like to be safe. It has saved me on some occasions.
                              Comment
                              • SoonerBS
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-26-08
                                • 518

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Cougar Bait
                                I like Minnesota and Oregon also, and will likely be on them with you. Read your write-ups earlier and enjoyed the info. I'll be posting my plays next week sometime. GL!
                                I'll look forward to seeing what you are on, good luck!!
                                Comment
                                • SoonerBS
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 08-26-08
                                  • 518

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by BGS 9.5
                                  Cash money partner
                                  What's going on, Chris? Almost time for football so get your diddling with the neighbor lady done so you can sit and watch games and drink beer!!

                                  Comment
                                  • masr
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-20-07
                                    • 4773

                                    #18
                                    Good to see you here posting Sooner..ive read your insight before...
                                    Already on Minn -6.5
                                    Good Luck this season
                                    Attached Files
                                    Comment
                                    • R1C3R
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 08-26-09
                                      • 14

                                      #19
                                      Gogogogo!
                                      Comment
                                      • TheU
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 08-26-09
                                        • 147

                                        #20
                                        [quote=SoonerBS;2155496]I'm considering a play on Navy.

                                        Hey sooner. First post here. I'm going Navy. I don't see Ohio State blowing these guys out by more than 22 1/2 points. Navy will eat up clock with their rushing attack. Plus, the Bucks have USC coming to town the following week.
                                        Comment
                                        • dle
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-26-08
                                          • 438

                                          #21
                                          I'm with you on all three you SOB Goon.

                                          Comment
                                          • jimmymo
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 10-13-08
                                            • 23

                                            #22
                                            Good stuff Sooner....I am on 3 of the 4, with the only exception being Minny (just can't get past something telling me not to trust them.....they probably end up winning by 14+ and me kicking myself for not jumping aboard)...


                                            Of the other three, I seem to be leaning strongest toward Colorado, but do have some concerns with its DL...CSU brings back a pretty good experienced group and they may have the ability to move the ball on the ground...both teams will try and grind it out and this will shorten the clock....I have actually been thinking about the under here, but Colorado has the fire power to keep me off of it....they may put up high 30's by themselves.....if Colorado does extend the lead adn CSU has to play catch-up, it could get ugly (which I expect)....GL and -- if you can --- give me a serendipitous head's up to your site...
                                            Comment
                                            • dle
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-26-08
                                              • 438

                                              #23
                                              CSU is down to like their third string QB (and it ain't Masoli!) at this point I believe, Syracuse has lost like a quarter of their roster and starts Paulus at QB. If Minnesota or Colorado don't cover, people need to be fired.
                                              Comment
                                              • Coop29
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 08-27-09
                                                • 4

                                                #24
                                                Sooners-
                                                I'm sure you've taken it into acocunt, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on the impact of the Buffs losing 2 starting WR's. It is really the only thing keeping me from jumping in with both feet. Thanks for the write ups!
                                                Comment
                                                • SoonerBS
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 08-26-08
                                                  • 518

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Coop29
                                                  Sooners-
                                                  I'm sure you've taken it into acocunt, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on the impact of the Buffs losing 2 starting WR's. It is really the only thing keeping me from jumping in with both feet. Thanks for the write ups!
                                                  They got Andre Simmons back eligible and he will be a BIG asset to this team, but it may be two or three games into the season before he can contribute because he has not practiced with them. He is what I call a "home run" style of WR with his speed, agility, and pass catching abilities.

                                                  Coop, they are going to struggle a bit at receiver, no doubt. However, the practice reports are listing that the QBs have been looking good, so I have to believe that they have found some guys that can catch the ball.

                                                  The key to this game, as I have already listed, is that Colorado will likely run all over CSU. CSU was not very good at stopping the run last season and they will likely be the same this year with the personnel they have. Colorado, on the other hand, have two dynamic running backs that only played a little above average last year because of there offensive line being injured for most all the season. The lne is healthy this year and it will make a dramatic difference in the running game. I look for Colorado to control the line of scrimmage and therefore control the game.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BigdaddyQH
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 07-13-09
                                                    • 19530

                                                    #26
                                                    You can forget about the Navy. They lost their starting NG Nate Frazier. He was the most dominate player on that side of the ball for Navy. It sounds as if he flunked out of the Academy. This is big trouble for a Navy team that was thin on defense to begin with. Pass on Navy.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nevadaside
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-20-06
                                                      • 1263

                                                      #27
                                                      ALRIGHT.........we are under way! Great to see your first plays up Sooner.

                                                      This is the exact kind of spot I was talking to you about back in June regarding MINN as one of my sleepers early this season.

                                                      MINN-6.5 (-110) still available @ BM.........
                                                      I did see it at 7 one day.


                                                      Lets get at it right out of the gate!!!.................
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SoonerBS
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 08-26-08
                                                        • 518

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by nevadaside
                                                        ALRIGHT.........we are under way! Great to see your first plays up Sooner.

                                                        This is the exact kind of spot I was talking to you about back in June regarding MINN as one of my sleepers early this season.

                                                        MINN-6.5 (-110) still available @ BM.........
                                                        I did see it at 7 one day.


                                                        Lets get at it right out of the gate!!!.................
                                                        Let's kick some ass, Nevadaside . . . . .
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SoonerBS
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-26-08
                                                          • 518

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Coop29
                                                          Sooners-
                                                          I'm sure you've taken it into acocunt, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on the impact of the Buffs losing 2 starting WR's. It is really the only thing keeping me from jumping in with both feet. Thanks for the write ups!
                                                          Here's the latest camp report, Coop:

                                                          Buffs boost WR corps

                                                          By Ryan Thorburn Camera Sports Writer
                                                          Boulder Daily Camera
                                                          Posted:08/26/2009 11:33:50 PM MDT


                                                          Suddenly, Colorado is enjoying an infusion of size, speed and swagger at wide receiver.
                                                          Andre Simmons -- the highly touted transfer from Independence Community College -- adds the size and speed. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound junior practiced with the Buffs for the first time on Wednesday night after finally getting through the red tape with his transfer to CU.



                                                          "Any football player doesn't want to stand on the sideline," said Simmons, who reported with the rest of the Buffs on Aug. 6, but was not allowed to work out with the team until his eligibility was approved. "I stayed positive the whole time."



                                                          Anthony Wright, who has officially switched from cornerback to receiver, provides the swagger. If nothing else, the confident 6-0, 195-pound redshirt sophomore talks a great game.



                                                          "That's up to the coaches. Whatever they think is the right decision for the team," Wright said when asked if the position change was permanent. "Who knows, I might be playing offense and defense. That would be cool. Charles Woodson did and he won a Heisman."
                                                          The head coach/wide receivers coach is just looking for some help for Scotty McKnight. Dan Hawkins expects CU to have a strong running game this season and will probably lean on it until Simmons gets on the same page with the quarterbacks and Markques Simas returns from a two-game suspension.



                                                          "I think he has a little bit of a grasp about what's going on," said Hawkins, who believes Simmons can contribute in the opener against Colorado State on Sept. 6. "He's a very quiet kid but he's a soaker. He soaks up a lot of stuff."



                                                          Simmons was one of the last players to leave the field on Wednesday after doing some extra conditioning work. Wright also stuck around and caught extra balls after the session.
                                                          "Every day they keep throwing more at me," Wright said. "The terminology, it's like a different language. It's like Spanish."



                                                          Simmons was the No. 35 overall junior college prospect (the third-ranked receiver) in this year's recruiting class, according to rivals.com. He can also help the Buffs in the punt and kickoff return game, another area that could use some help with Josh Smith transferring to UCLA over the summer.



                                                          "It's just a matter of time and studying my playbook and getting the timing down," Simmons said.



                                                          Wright redshirted as a true freshman in 2007 and did not see any game action last season on the defensive side of the ball. He also missed spring drills with a knee injury. During his high school days in Compton, Calif., he played running back and receiver, racking up 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns rushing and 394 yards and five touchdowns receiving as a senior.



                                                          Hawkins said defensive backs coach Greg Brown -- who has plenty of talent to work with at cornerback this season -- was the one who recommended giving Wright a shot on the other side of the ball.



                                                          "I kind of asked them playing around to see what they would say," Wright said. "I was joking around and saying, 'You should try me at receiver.' ...
                                                          "I'm an athlete and wherever you put me my athleticism can take over. I know I'm fast and I can catch."
                                                          Comment
                                                          • SoonerBS
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 08-26-08
                                                            • 518

                                                            #30
                                                            Here's a local Colorado article about the continuing problems CSU is having with selecting a QB to run their team. This is not good for CSU going on the road, and I am considering laying more money on Colorado in this game:


                                                            Publish Date: 8/26/2009

                                                            CSU Rams quarterback returns to the mix in battle for starting job

                                                            By Mike Brohard
                                                            Loveland Reporter-Herald
                                                            FORT COLLINS — Like a road flare will alert you to an accident, T.J. Borcky under center has become the warning sign at Colorado State the quarterbacks are not playing well.

                                                            Tuesday, Borcky was back at wide receiver, leaving Grant Stucker and Jon Eastman to their battle.

                                                            “He was a receiver only because we practiced a little better at quarterback,” CSU head coach Steve Fairchild said. “That was good. We had Eastman back at full speed, so that helps.”

                                                            Eastman, fresh off surgery to his non-throwing left hand, was sporting a red jersey to avoid contact, but he’ll strip that off in short order this week.

                                                            A bonus would be if Fairchild felt confident in naming a starter by next week so the offense could start to meld.

                                                            For one, receiver Dion Morton would like to see it.

                                                            “I’m pretty sure anybody would; I’ll say yes on that,” he said. “Like I said, we’ll take it one step at a time. We need to make sure we know who that starter is. If it takes a long time, it takes a long time. That’s part of life.”

                                                            Fairchild also acknowledges the benefit to that, though both of them seeing action against Colorado is not out of the question.

                                                            “We’d probably have to do something like that, although I won’t rule out playing both if that’s what the situation merits,” Fairchild said. “I just want to watch a little more this week.”

                                                            Eastman said the finger feels good, and it didn’t bother him to take snaps. He also thinks the time away — three days — hurt him in the chase.

                                                            Regardless of who wins the battle, Stucker said the battle will always been on as Fairchild proved with his handling of Billy Farris last year.

                                                            “You definitely have to learn from the past,” he said. “Last year, Billy struggled in a couple games and he got taken out for a few series or the whole game. You’ve got to realize your spot is never really your spot. You have to keep working hard every day to make sure you have the coach’s confidence.”

                                                            If they do, they’ll know rather easily.

                                                            “We didn’t have to throw Borcky in there; that’s a starting point,” Fairchild said
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pags11
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-18-05
                                                              • 12264

                                                              #31
                                                              always great articles you are posting...thanks soonerbs...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BadFinger
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 04-21-08
                                                                • 132

                                                                #32
                                                                on the utep and colorado. good luck everyone.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • clowncar
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 09-25-08
                                                                  • 227

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I agree that Tressel likely will not run the score up on purpose here. However, i think ohio state is somewhere around 14-9 ATS as a double digit favorite the last few years. They were not good in this role last year though which may be what you are referring to.

                                                                  Nice get on the UTEP game , I certainly wish I had bet that game prior to the Starks injury myself.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • twentyonekid
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 08-09-09
                                                                    • 883

                                                                    #34
                                                                    good luck soonerbs....always look for your input before making plays
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SoonerBS
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 08-26-08
                                                                      • 518

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Two More Plays:

                                                                      Notre Dame -13.5 (-120) for 1 UNIT -- Notre Dame has always had talented recruits coming into the program and nothing has changed from there. This program has always been loaded with talent. The problem with Notre Dame is that the program has been wallowing in mediocrity for the past 9 seasons under 3 different coaches. This is a team that ought to be putting up double digit wins every season with the talent they have coming in, but for some reason they have done nothing but ride a roller coaster ride of up and down seasons. Weiss will be in his 5th season with the team and is only an average 29-21 as their head coach. I personally don't think Weiss is a bad coach, but I think the pressures of being the head coach of a program as huge as Notre Dame tends to get to these guys. Weiss came into the head coaching job in 2005 and took a team that was very mediocre the two years previous to this and went 9-3 and 10-3 in 2006. So, anyone that tells me the guy is not capable as a head coach is just not seeing the big picture with him in my opinion. Notre Dame graduated some major talent in 2006 and haven't recovered since then. However, there was improvement last season over the disastrous year in 2007, especially defensively. I know that Jon Tenuta was only hired last season to be a "co-defensive coordinator," but let's face it, he's the real brains of the defensive coaching staff and probably the reason the defense showed improvement last season. This season, Weiss has given Tenuta the sole responsibility of calling the plays defensively. The talent is set in all areas of the defense and I expect Notre Dame to have their best defensive season since 2002.

                                                                      Offensively, Notre Dame brings back 9 starters off an offense that also improved last season over 2007. Still, as great as that sounds, Notre Dame's main weaknesses last year was their run game. This was largely due to the running backs not being very tough and the offensive line was weak in their run blocking. The RB coach and the OL coach were both given tasks of making these guys tougher. A lot of it was started by conditioning routines in the offseason and I look for them to really step up the toughness drills with these guys in August. IF the offensive line improves to their potential this season, there may be no limit as to how far the Fighting Irish will go this season.

                                                                      Nevada will be a force on offense this season, but mainly at home or in the WAC. Their defense though is atrocious. This is a tale of two levels -- Notre Dame at a true BCS level and Nevada at a true non-BCS level. Many will bet on Nevada because they have received a lot of hype in the preseason as a possible "BCS Buster" team. The truth will be found out here in this game as it is a mismatch in talent.

                                                                      Stanford -16.5 for 1 UNIT -- I would have liked to have meade this for more UNITS, but it is hard for me to do so with a team like Stanford laying DDs on the road. Look, guys, this comes down to the fact that I do not see WSU being any better than they were last season. They have had some defections over the offseason and there is nothing that has been done that would convince me that they have made some major changes.

                                                                      Stanford, however, has been making changes to try and be better. They bring back 17 starters off last season's 5-7 team, and they have replaced their very mediocre QB, Pritchard, with a talented redshirt Freshman QB, Andrew Luck. Luck is a Jim Harbaugh recruit and he is the future of this program. Having an upgrade in QB is worth a TD for this match-up in itself. Last year, Stanford beat WSU at home 58-0. I don't see that kind of outing on the road, but we only have to cover -17.
                                                                      Comment
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