Pags' Plays 9/5

**cocknocker** · 08-31-09, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

What book has the ND line @ -14.5?

Betus and CRIS

**irishstuey** · 08-31-09, 04:24 PM

Pags, I love to hear you like ND, though I never bet on my team. I think it looks real nice at 13.5, but not so much 14-14.5. What scares me about the Irish is the lack of putting teams away and the kicking game.

Any thoughts on Tulsa -13.5 BM?

**Dfjay9** · 08-31-09, 05:55 PM

Couple Questions pags:

What makes you think BYU and SD State can hold their own?

**pags11** · 08-31-09, 06:54 PM

bfour,

completely agreee my friend...GL my friend...

irishstuey,

no opinion on the Tulsa game...they are breaking in a new QB and I'm not interested in laying two plus TD's on the road in that one...GL this week...

Dfjay9,

I'll have more for you on those on Thursday but as big of dogs as they are I'm not sure they need to "hold their own" vs. just covering the spread...GL this week...

**snapstick** · 08-31-09, 06:56 PM

Does that conclude your plays for the week pags? Thanks in advance

**Daisydog** · 08-31-09, 07:13 PM

Tru Dat....Nevada has nothing to lose while ND has everything to lose

**Daisydog** · 08-31-09, 07:30 PM

could not have said better myself about Nevada's capabilities and this being a "stay away" game.

**bfour** · 08-31-09, 10:35 PM

Hey thanks for the well wishes pags, same to you man. I was hoping you could maybe gimme some real short insight on Memphis and Mid Tenn St if you have any, I like Memphis and Clemson in those games, is there any reason not to?

**Skanless1** · 08-31-09, 10:43 PM

pags my man, so nice to see you back and posting... in all honesty, you are one of the few reasons i still check sbr out... thanks for the plays and best of luck this year my man!

**pags11** · 08-31-09, 10:44 PM

LSU -17 (-102) for .5 unit

**pags11** · 08-31-09, 10:50 PM

snapstick,

I've posted seven Saturday plays and one weekday play...that's it for this week...

bfour,

I really don't have any opinions on either game, but I guy I greatly respect likes the MTSU side...

Skanless1,

appreciate you stopping by the thread and the kind words...BOL to you this season...

**sirwinzalot** · 08-31-09, 11:06 PM

Mr. Pags, I see your fan club is out in full force. Here's to another winning year. I have a feeling, my friend, this could be the most profitable NCAA year we have seen. Let's put a hurting on the books!

**snapstick** · 08-31-09, 11:07 PM

Thanks for your response Pags and BOL this season.

**pags11** · 08-31-09, 11:41 PM

sirwinzalot,

thank you...appreciate all of the hours you spend researching and helping us make our plays...keep up the outstanding work my friend...let's do it again...

**jjvoit** · 08-31-09, 11:50 PM

Pags, been a longtime lurker, I believe this is my first post. good luck to you this season and your right it aint that hard to get +100 lines on your ats bets. You pick more winners than losers and use a money management system that works well for you, thats what matters in the end.

**AmishRakeFight** · 09-01-09, 12:19 AM

Good luck pags. Hope you go 8-0.

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 01:07 AM

jjvoit,

thank you for posting and thank you for the kind words...sounds like you are pretty sharp...BOL to you this year...

AmishRakeFight,

appreciate that sir...as always my goal is to win more games than I lose each week...GL to you as well pal...

**daneblazer** · 09-01-09, 06:24 AM

Pags,
out of curiosity, what do you work your units up to per game during the middle of the season? I understand it may vary depending on the game...what would you say the average is?

**Cougar Bait** · 09-01-09, 06:38 AM

Was looking at the BYU play myself...just think that's too many points there. Especially with their schedule, this is really their game of the year...but the same logic could be used for Boise St. too I guess...GL this week Pags!

**dvb02** · 09-01-09, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by pags11

LSU -17 (-102) for .5 unit

Pags, I really like the LSU play. I think their QB, Jordan Jefferson, is going to be a very solid player this year and they are looking to prove something after their dismal year last year. I also think Chavis (the Def Coor) is going to turn around their defense with all of its talent. Good luck.

**blowseq** · 09-01-09, 09:35 AM

Good Luck for all season Pags

**Panekkkk** · 09-01-09, 10:32 AM

pags, I have come on board a little late and all the lines have shifted by 1 pt in the opposite direction at most books (the pags effect maybe?) -- is there value taking these lines at 1 pt less?

Thx and GL!

**Dana4U** · 09-01-09, 03:18 PM

Picks look good Pags ... looking forward to the write ups!

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 03:32 PM

daneblazer,

my unit sized depends on the week of the season...I start out with .5 unit plays and tier up a half unit per week (each game is played at the same unit size each week based on the week). By week 6 I play 3 unit games and stay with three unit games through week 9...then I start to tier down again...average through the year is probably 1.5 per game...GL to you this week...

Cougar Bait,

you make good points about both games...

dvb02,

whenever you play a road favorite the game is always going to be dicey...that being said I do think LSU has some distinct advantages in this one, thus my reasoning for making the play...GL to you this week...

blowseq,

thank you sir...BOL to you this season...

Panekkkk,

thank you very much for saying so, although I'm not sure my plays have that kind of influence...the only game that is a little sketchy past 17 is LSU and Georgia at 5 is still a good play although I would have liked for you to gotten 6...I would still play SDSU, Va. Tech, BYU (better number than the one I posted is available currently), Notre Dame, La. Tech (better number than the one I posted is available as well)...the lowest number I'd play Oregon at is 4...GL this week...

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 03:40 PM

dana,

thanks bud...will have them up on Thursday...

**GoSooners** · 09-01-09, 03:57 PM

Pags...With the problems that BYU is having I'm probably going to be on opposite sides in that game. But that's also a little of the OU homer in me talking. Just two more days to ground zero my friend...

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 04:20 PM

gosooners,

I understand my friend, sorry we will be against eachother in that one...yes, we are almost here!...

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 04:59 PM

Oregon +5

At first glance many people will look at this game and see that Boise State is at home laying what they consider to be a small number and on their home record the past decade they will take Boise State. I don't blame those people who do that, I have a tremendous amount or respect for Chris Peterson and the Boise State program. That being said, I can't ignore the fact that in the second half of the season last year Oregon was playing like a top ten team, particularly in their bowl game vs. an extremely talented (and well coached) Oklahoma State team. This game comes down to RB Blount and QB Masoli (40 TDs total between these two players) vs. a new front seven for Boise State. Both players for Oregon are as talented at their respective positions as any players in the country. I can see Oregon setting up a lot of 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 3 situations and with these two players running the zone read, combined with Masoli's ability to throw on the run, I think they can play ball control and as the game gets into the fourth quarter they will be able to wear Boise State's defense down. Oregon's defense will be tested by QB Moore and Boise does have a pair of talented RB's in Avery and Harper, but they lose their leader Ian Johnson (13 TD's last year), who had a real nose for the goal line. Also Boise loses four of their top 6 receivers from last year, which will put more pressure on their running game. It is going to be a game where you are going to have to hold onto your seat if you have the Oregon side, but I'll side with Oregon and the points in this one.

**riggs** · 09-01-09, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Oregon +5

At first glance many people will look at this game and see that Boise State is at home laying what they consider to be a small number and on their home record the past decade they will take Boise State. I don't blame those people who do that, I have a tremendous amount or respect for Chris Peterson and the Boise State program. That being said, I can't ignore the fact that in the second half of the season last year Oregon was playing like a top ten team, particularly in their bowl game vs. an extremely talented (and well coached) Oklahoma State team. This game comes down to RB Blount and QB Masoli (40 TDs total between these two players) vs. a new front seven for Boise State. Both players for Oregon are as talented at their respective positions as any players in the country. I can see Oregon setting up a lot of 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 3 situations and with these two players running the zone read, combined with Masoli's ability to throw on the run, I think they can play ball control and as the game gets into the fourth quarter they will be able to wear Boise State's defense down. Oregon's defense will be tested by QB Moore and Boise does have a pair of talented RB's in Avery and Harper, but they lose their leader Ian Johnson (13 TD's last year), who had a real nose for the goal line. Also Boise loses four of their top 6 receivers from last year, which will put more pressure on their running game. It is going to be a game where you are going to have to hold onto your seat if you have the Oregon side, but I'll side with Oregon and the points in this one.

Nice write up. I like this play myself Pags, and was considering it last week as well, but I have wayyyyy tooooo much action so far. GL, hope you win em all, except ND, as you know I'm on Nevada!

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 05:27 PM

riggs,

glad to hear you agree with the play...yep, we are against eachother in the Nevada vs. Notre Dame game unfortunately...GL bud...

**Jroc85** · 09-01-09, 05:28 PM

very nice call on lsu!! sleepers for the nat'l title!

**supplykim** · 09-01-09, 05:45 PM

GL Pags I've heard about you before but this is my first year following so hopefully you start with some winners! thanks

**pags11** · 09-01-09, 05:49 PM

jroc,

out of all the games I've posted LSU is the most dicey of them all, but as you mentioned they are pretty dang talented and have a history of being a pretty good bully...I also like the fact that Locker hasn't played for about 10 months in a game live, he should be shaking some rust off...

**ZBOIZ** · 09-01-09, 06:47 PM

Also a nice future bet is LSU OVER 8.5 wins

**NEP Dynasty** · 09-01-09, 07:03 PM

GL Pags, will be following as always.