Michigan and W. Michigan...line too big???

The Lizard King · 08-18-09, 07:29 PM

Doesn't anyone wanna join my thread? I can hear my own thoughts echo off the walls here. Perhaps someone would like to chime in on this topic. What's the matter, nobody bothered to handicap this game? I don't appreciate this lack of communication or input. I may have to sue some or all of you if this egregious inactivity continues. This is the epitome of unsportsmanlike conduct.

Willie Bee · 08-18-09, 07:45 PM

Please don't sue us, Lizard. I think it's just that you caught everyone resting up before the Bash.

Welcome to SBR

addbball · 08-18-09, 08:32 PM

+11.5 isn't stellar, but there's no way I'd pick Michigan for this game.

Intuitive_Edge · 08-18-09, 08:36 PM

Hmm id love to see Western pull it off. I think the line will climb.. so wait on it.

ZBOIZ · 08-18-09, 08:42 PM

I actually like Michigan

Deuce · 08-18-09, 09:36 PM

GF brother on U of M. I will tell him to break the QB's arm at half for us. Let it all ride.

thegeeksheet · 08-18-09, 09:36 PM

This one really intrigues me. I have just finished importing last years data and our projected adjustments for this year, but haven’t set up our inter-game situational analysis, so I am not sure yet which way I’ll go on this (if anything at all). I do know that given a couple facts, this seems like a WMU or nothing play (at least off the cuff):
· WMU returns a very talented and seasoned QB in Hiller, probably the 2nd or 3rd best in MAC behind LeFevour.
· Both return nearly intact Oline’s (probably more critical for Michigan as they adjust to Rod’s O schemes).
· Both have holes to fill on the DL and Secondary, WMU’s secondary won’t hurt as bad b/c of Mich’s O, but the DL will.
· As good as WMU was last year (412 ypg) my preseason adjustments call for them to be 8-12% better. Michigan comes in at 15% improved, but off a much lower number (291 ypg LY).
· Both defenses should take a step back from last year, but neither by a huge margin (4% for Michigan and 8% for WMU).
· This doesn’t take into account the situational ramifications of these off-season adjustments, just a season based approach to adjustments for lost rush/pass production ,returning letters, OC, QB, OL, etc and same –same for Def.
· All that said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see WMU hang around, and unless Richie Rod gets much more improvement out of his O. Five returning OL starters will help, but last I saw it looks like they are going to start a true Fresh (I haven’t verified that of late) at QB (Forcier), which would have me worried.
· Throw the names out and ask yourself this question:
o Both D’s are questionable in the secondary and Dline
o One team has a Senior QB who has started off and on for 4 years, returns 4 OL, and 95% of last year’s rushing productivity (and averaged 421 ypg)
o One team potentially starts a true freshman at QB, will run the ball 60-70% of the time and only returns 59% of last year’s rushing productivity
o You have to lay double digits with the later
o And before you get all high and mighty on “talent level” - I am not one to play the common Opp game, but in 2008
§ Mich 10 – Toledo 13
§ WMU 27-Toldeo 17
I am still not sure what to make of this, but I can tell you laying 10 on Michigan does not jump off the page as a no-brainer way to dip the toe’s into the pool.

TPowell · 08-18-09, 10:11 PM

never know I dont guess, won't be touching this game though

SoonerBS · 08-18-09, 10:14 PM

I will likely play Michigan. The offensive line is starting to come together in latest workouts for Michigan which means players are catching on to Rodriguez's system. I haven't been impressed with MAC's power levels against BCS schools the last two years and I don't see it changing here. Michigan has the talent to cover this line impressively against WMU and I think they will want to in their home opener.

Deuce · 08-18-09, 10:18 PM

Hey Geekball,

You can't compare games like that. It makes no sense. I see you're a square. Good day.

MartinBlank · 08-19-09, 08:10 PM

I have learned a long time ago to tread carefully when wagering on true frosh quarterbacks.

Forcier may save Rich Rod's ass, but it is still his first start, and I just don't see it. Will Michigan really be THAT improved? I am not buying it.

pico · 08-19-09, 08:12 PM

michigan will kill them. not gonna be like app st.

MartinBlank · 08-19-09, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by pico

michigan will kill them. not gonna be like app st.

Actually we all agree WMU is not App State.

But they are much much better than Toledo---which also rolled Michigan in the Big House last year.

SBR_John · 08-19-09, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by thegeeksheet

This one really intrigues me. I have just finished importing last years data and our projected adjustments for this year, but haven’t set up our inter-game situational analysis, so I am not sure yet which way I’ll go on this (if anything at all). I do know that given a couple facts, this seems like a WMU or nothing play (at least off the cuff):
· WMU returns a very talented and seasoned QB in Hiller, probably the 2nd or 3rd best in MAC behind LeFevour.
· Both return nearly intact Oline’s (probably more critical for Michigan as they adjust to Rod’s O schemes).
· Both have holes to fill on the DL and Secondary, WMU’s secondary won’t hurt as bad b/c of Mich’s O, but the DL will.
· As good as WMU was last year (412 ypg) my preseason adjustments call for them to be 8-12% better. Michigan comes in at 15% improved, but off a much lower number (291 ypg LY).
· Both defenses should take a step back from last year, but neither by a huge margin (4% for Michigan and 8% for WMU).
· This doesn’t take into account the situational ramifications of these off-season adjustments, just a season based approach to adjustments for lost rush/pass production ,returning letters, OC, QB, OL, etc and same –same for Def.
· All that said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see WMU hang around, and unless Richie Rod gets much more improvement out of his O. Five returning OL starters will help, but last I saw it looks like they are going to start a true Fresh (I haven’t verified that of late) at QB (Forcier), which would have me worried.
· Throw the names out and ask yourself this question:
o Both D’s are questionable in the secondary and Dline
o One team has a Senior QB who has started off and on for 4 years, returns 4 OL, and 95% of last year’s rushing productivity (and averaged 421 ypg)
o One team potentially starts a true freshman at QB, will run the ball 60-70% of the time and only returns 59% of last year’s rushing productivity
o You have to lay double digits with the later
o And before you get all high and mighty on “talent level” - I am not one to play the common Opp game, but in 2008
§ Mich 10 – Toledo 13
§ WMU 27-Toldeo 17
I am still not sure what to make of this, but I can tell you laying 10 on Michigan does not jump off the page as a no-brainer way to dip the toe’s into the pool.

Great info.

X's and O's aside I will go with Rich's home cooking at least in the opener. The Mich boys were comepeltely lost last year. They have been waiting for this game a long time. WMU is the perfect opponet really.

MartinBlank · 08-19-09, 08:34 PM

More power to you guys who are on Michigan. Best of luck to you.

I just can't put that kind of faith into a frosh QB. And more, Michigan isn't that talented or deep along both lines. The OL that Rodriguez inherited is not the type of OL he likes. He likes smaller, quicker guards and tackles---and he still has guys built for what Lloyd Carr liked to do.

It wasn't just Michigan's offense that looked lost last year---it was their defense. They gave up tons of yards and points.

I think this is going to be another long year in Ann Arbor. 7 loss season.

SoonerBS · 08-19-09, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

More power to you guys who are on Michigan. Best of luck to you.

I just can't put that kind of faith into a frosh QB. And more, Michigan isn't that talented or deep along both lines. The OL that Rodriguez inherited is not the type of OL he likes. He likes smaller, quicker guards and tackles---and he still has guys built for what Lloyd Carr liked to do.

It wasn't just Michigan's offense that looked lost last year---it was their defense. They gave up tons of yards and points.

I think this is going to be another long year in Ann Arbor. 7 loss season.

Martin, I understand what you are saying and sometimes you are right, BUT sometimes you are wrong on this philosophy, too. In fact, those who held that philosophy with Baylor last year missed out on an 8-3 season ATS. BUT, it is tough to say how that first game, or even the season, will turn out under the direction of Forcier. My gut instinct (and this is gambling), and after watching some game film on him from high s chool and the Spring Game last Spring leads me to think he is going to be a great improvement over last season's QB play. This guy fits Coach Rods system.

As far as the defense goes, I think Coach Rod realized he did not have the right DC to coach these kids away from Michigan's old systems and into what he wanted to see them do. Robinson will change that this season. Robinson was dismal as a head coach, but he has always been highly regarded as a DC. He'll be a major upgrade over last season's DC. There is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball and I look for them to be much improved this year.

Like I have said in other threads, it has been good money to fade the MAC against BCS non-conference opponents. These MAC teams are not sound and betting on them is like betting on a "Jeckyl and Hyde" type team -- you don't know what you are going to get. I think Michigan has the team this year, and experience, to win and cover this opener at the Big House.

M.W. · 08-21-09, 10:51 AM

WMU is the perfect opponent really.

I think you're exactly right. Good enough to be taken seriously, but not quite good enough to stay with the Wolverines if they're as motivated as I expect them to be.

oiler · 08-21-09, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by addbball

+11.5 isn't stellar, but there's no way I'd pick Michigan for this game.

isnt it michigan the team who was like a 40pt favorite and lost the game.they usally dont play hard early on the year cause they figure they are playing cream puffs

M.W. · 08-21-09, 10:55 AM

...after watching some game film on him from high s chool and the Spring Game last Spring leads me to think he is going to be a great improvement over last season's QB play

The thing about the film from the spring game is that, yes, it's a highlight reel, but the kid only threw 2 incompletions, so they really didn't have to do much cherry-picking to make him look good. With the exception of the incompletions that weren't included, his throws were on the money, and he had some nice running skills. Really looks like it will be a major upgrade.

M.W. · 08-21-09, 11:00 AM

As far as the defense goes, I think Coach Rod realized he did not have the right DC to coach these kids away from Michigan's old systems and into what he wanted to see them do. Robinson will change that this season. Robinson was dismal as a head coach, but he has always been highly regarded as a DC. He'll be a major upgrade over last season's DC.

You're right -- another major upgrade. Robinson was DC for two Super Bowl winners. That's pretty impressive. And having an offense that can stay on the field a bit longer will help the D as well.

SoonerBS · 08-21-09, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by oiler

isnt it michigan the team who was like a 40pt favorite and lost the game.they usally dont play hard early on the year cause they figure they are playing cream puffs

Different coach, different teams and completely different program. That is not applicable to this game and program at all.

Shortstop · 08-21-09, 11:58 PM

Nice write-ups by several posters in this thread, regardless, I like Michigan to cover here.

SoonerBS · 08-25-09, 10:03 AM

With the news coming out over the weekend of Michigan playing all three QBs in game 1, I am off this game altogether. I have never seen any good come from situations like this and I do not like playing on games with this particular variable present. Too bad, it was looking like a really good play before this news . . . . .

TPowell · 08-25-09, 07:32 PM

RLM all over this game

pags11 · 08-26-09, 12:57 AM

I respect WMU's veteran team but in watching them last year they just seem really slow...I'm not running out to bet Michigan in this game, I'm just saying this may not be as much of a value play as many are making it out to be...