2020-21 Dapper Dan Picks - College Football Analysis

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  • Smutbucket
    SBR MVP
    • 03-14-08
    • 3996

    #36
    Dapper Dan Picks:
    Season YTD: 48-48 (-4.4 units)

    Week 14 adds:
    Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111)
    Arkansas +3 (-114)
    LSU +29 (+100)
    Miami -14.5 (-111)
    Utah -11 (-113)

    Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
    Not scared by the fact that the bookies have moved the line up by 3 points since the opener and juicing it still. There’s all kinds of reasons why this will be another unprecedented 2020 shootout where both teams score in the 40’s. Both defenses by the number are some of the lowest ranked units in the league. According to PFF, Nebraska is ranked 100th in overall defense, 98th in coverage, and 96th in run defense. Purdue’s is not much better ranking 85th in overall defense, 40th in run defense, and 117th in coverage. Purdue defense got dominated last week by Rutgers read-option especially in the 2nd half when senior leading tackling LB David Barnes got ejected and will be missing the first half of this game. Nebraska loves the read option and Scott Frost loves to go for the big play. Both QBs normally struggle with pressure but they shouldn't have any as either of these two defensive lines have done much of anything this season, ranking 90th and 125th in sack%. Purdue’s elite receiving corps (David Bell, Milton Wright and Ronale Moore) should have a field day against this soft pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass (ranked 82nd) and allowed opponents to complete 64% of their passes (ranked 91st). Both these coaches love to play tempo - although both of their plays per game stats this season are lower than years past, it’s only because both teams TOP% is well below 50. Take the over.

    Arkansas +3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
    Missouri has been fortunate enough to cover the last two games after facing two programs that are riddled with injuries and departures. Arkansas has had one of the toughest schedules to date, ranking 3rd in GLS SOS scale and have had close games even with their better opponents. Their biggest strength is their pass defense where they rank 32nd in PFF and 28th in yards per pass allowed (even after facing Florida, Texas AM, Auburn, and UGA). Missouri prefers to pass as they throw 50% of the time, more than most teams and have not got much push up front only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Missouri’s defensive numbers are heavily padded against the terrible offensive teams they have played including Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Kentucky - their PFF rankings game log show their run defense and coverage barely broke a 60 PFF ratings against their better opponents. Arkansas’s biggest problem on offense has been their ability to protect and give Felipe time but Missouri is not very good in the pass rush ranking 78th in sack%. I had to do a double take when looking at their offensive passing numbers as they are quietly one of the better teams in the nation ranking 18th in yards per pass and 17th in completion percentage - as long as they get the throws off and isnt facing pressure the veteran Franks has been surprisingly good. Arkansas has lost the last 4 straight to Missouri but I think this one as this would be a huge win for the program as they are sitting currently with a 3-5 record (but against tough competition) and will give it everything they got to fight for new head coach Greg Schiano (haha just kidding you assholes I know it’s Sam Pittman and mistakenly put Schiano in a past Arkansas writeup as it wasn't particularly important to that write-up and both are penetrating red #fuckoff)

    Miami -14.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
    Buy this number down to 14 obviously if you can but I’m using pickmonitor to track picks and am unable to currently do so - but I don’t think it matters regardless. After losing two years in a row to Duke, this has all the makings of a revenge matchup where Miami will put up as many points as they possibly can against their ACC foe, Duke who has struggled a lot this season including getting blown out by Georgia Tech last week. The last two years these teams faced off it was pouring rain which helped Duke accumulate 12 sacks in two years, but this year King won’t be as pathetic as Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry were. On both sides of the ball Miami has HEAVY advantages across almost all FEI categories as they outrank Duke’s team by an average of 21 ranks on offense and an average of 50 ranks on defense! Duke’s weak offensive line will be a particularly huge mismatch for Miami as they are ranked 112th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rate, 100th in power success rate, 68th in stuff rankings and 103rd in sack%. Miami’s defensive line ranks 36th in line yards, 81st in opportunity rate, 37th in power success rate, 25th in stuff ranking, and 35th in sack%. Although Miami’s offensive line has struggled to run the ball this year, Duke’s defensive line is particularly bad at stopping the run allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season (ranking 89th). Duke’s offense is giving away an unprecedented 3.3 turnovers per game - and the team that invented the turnover chain will surely be busting it out in a lot as they blow-out Duke tonight after having 3 weeks off.

    LSU +29 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
    Going to keep this write-up short as it was my last add for the day and gotta go back to my day job shortly after another long week. In short, Alabama has only beat two teams this year by more than 29 points and that was Miss. State and Kentucky. LSU has come a long way this season after struggling early on and they are a much better team with Finley at QB - I think he can keep this one within 4 TD’s with a worst case backdoor.

    Utah -11 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
    I love a good late night contrarian PAC 12 play and this one has all the indicators. Currently right now on Saturday morning on PickMonitor - there are 11 handicappers who have made a play of this one with 10 of them being on Oregon State. The stats for this match-up are even more heavily in our favor than this contrarian market angle. Chance Nolan will be getting his first ever start (and has only been on the team for the shit-show that is 2020) for Oregon State as starting QB Gebbia went down late in the game last week and although the injury report has him listed as “probable” - other Oregon State fan base articles indicate that he is not only injured but most likely missing the rest of the season. Hopefully he knows the playbook in the short time the PAC 12 has given the opportunity to learn it as he will have to do a lot through the air as in true PAC 12 fashion - this Utah run defense is stout. Utah’s run defense is ranked 38th in line yards and ranks #15 only allowing 3.2 yards per carry in their first two games - Utah’s front is always great and well coached under Kyle Whittingham. The combined defensive line yards ranking for Oregon State’s first four opponents? 105th - which is partly why Jenmar Jenkins has some eye-poppingly good stats averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Utah will shut-down this running attack and force this untested rookie to beat them deep. Utah should get an effective pass rush when Oregon State gets stuck behind the chains and Utah’s defense is notoriously good at getting pressure in those situations ranking 31st in sack% and an area where Oregon State struggles ranking 61st in sack % allowed. Jake Bentley seemed to settle into the offense last week completing 70% of his throws but made a few key mistakes under pressure - a thing Oregon State shouldnt get much ranking 121st in sack%. I think this is a blow-out and the casual gambler only sees that Utah is struggling at 0-2, and Oregon State upset the almighty Oregon last week and are going to “break-out” for a great season- which may have been the case but not with Chance Nolan leading the team - I’d be on it.
    Comment
    • Smutbucket
      SBR MVP
      • 03-14-08
      • 3996

      #37
      Dapper Dan Picks:
      Season YTD: 54-50 (-0.67 units)
      Week 14: 6-2 (+3.73 units)
      Last month: 23-9 (+13.55 units)

      Week 15:
      6 pt Teaser. Pitt -1 and Arizona State -5 (-110)
      Utah +2 (-107)
      Virginia +2 (-108) 1.5x

      6 pt Teaser. Pitt -1 and Arizona State -5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
      I stopped picking teasers about 3 years ago when I started tracking at pickmonitor as they currently don’t offer to track them. Funny though going back and looking at my old picks online I noticed my best years were my first few years posting when I usually had almost one teaser a week - so I'm bringing them back and may have a few more pop before the end of the year but I LOVE this one. Both these games stand-out by the number easily but both are primetime games on Thursday and Friday night which are notoriously poorly officiated by refs so I thought I’d be safe and tease them both down. I already talked a lot about this Pitt team and how much I like them and Narduzzi, especially defensively and their offense has battled injuries but is mostly healthy now. They will be facing off a G. Tech offense that prefers to run the ball ranking #26th in rush %, but that's Pitt’s speciality as they only allow 2.4 yards per carry on the season, ranking 4th. Georgia Tech should also struggle in the passing game as young QB Sims does not do well under pressure with dumb mistakes and his offensive line is ranked 79th in sack % allowed. An area where Pitt’s defense excels ranking #2 in sack%. Arizona has been a dumpster fire all season, especially since starting QB Grant Gunnell got knocked out of the game two games ago, their offense has been abysmal and he’s currently listed as questionable. Arizona State is only 0-2 but probably against the best two teams in the PAC 12. They matchup very well against this struggling Arizona team. Arizona State loves to run the ball and are currently ranked 4th in yards per carry averaging 5.8 ypc and Arizona’s defense has allowed 6.1 yards per carry ranking #122nd in the league! Horrible! Another big mismatch in this game is in the pass rush as Arizona State is ranked 13th in sack% where Arizona’s offensive line is ranked 119th in sack% allowed. Both these games should cover easily but we teaser them down after countless bad beats on Thursday and Friday nights with matchups like these. Worst case one of them is a closer one possession type game but our teams should prevail. Sadly, I won’t be tracking this on my pickmonitor account.

      Utah +2 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
      I love this bet again despite giving up a 30-10 lead in the 4th qtr last week only to get back doored by Oregon State in soft coverage and special teams miscues - we don’t need any points in this one and the better team will win in this matchup. Colorado is sporting a 4-0 undefeated record, but if you look at their opponents it’s been against weak competition ranking 53rd in sagarin's SOS scale (opposed to Utah’s 25th). Under new head coach, Karl Dorrell - they caught their first few opponents with their guard down as their offense graded above 72 in both games, with passing grades in the 86-88 and run grades 72-79. The last two games their offense wasn't nearly as potent grading out to a 54 against SD state and 69 against Arizona. Their passing game has really struggled averaging a 49 pass grade, 57.5 receiving grade, and 55 run block grade in those two games. They love to run the ball handing the ball off 65% of the time in their first 4 games - but that is the strength of this Utah’s front - ranking 28th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Utah found excellent success last week running the ball and Ty Jordan who has averaged 6.73 yards per carry on the season has solidified his role as the premiere back last week getting 27 carries and 167 yards and really wearing down Oregon State’s front last week in the 2nd half. He should have a big day again against a Colorado front that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry on teh season ranking 98th. We will take the better defense and the MUCH better coaching staff in this one as Karl Dorrall, although seasoned, had only been a head coach once before in his career back in 2003 at UCLA where he was a slightly above a 55% winner in 5 years.

      Virginia +2 (-108) Risking 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
      Again the bookies get me again moving the line the opposite way I would have expected - and with the same team! Those dirty bastards. If you can get the 3 points great but if not I don’t see how Virginia doesn't win this game. After struggling in the beginning of the season losing 4 of 5 (2 of which were without starting QB Brennan Armstrong), they have won 4 straight and are facing a V. Tech team going the opposite direction having lost 4 straight after winning 4 of it’s first 6 games. Virginia Tech relies on the run as they don’t have many down field threats nor do they have A QB that can throw the ball deep. Virginia’a secondary has been their biggest weakness as they rank 114th in PFF coverage ratings but their run defense is ranked 35th according to PFF and have only allowed 3.7 yards per carry. Their defensive line should be a huge mismatch for Vtech especially in the pass rush as Vtech ranks 100th in sack% allowed and Virginia ranks 10th in sack%. Virginia’s offensive strengths also play to V. techs weaknesses on defense. Vtech has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on the season ranking 102nd and their line yard rankings are even more abysmal as they rank 115th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rank, and 87th in stuff rankings. This will be a INSANELY huge mismatch as in those same 3 categories, UVA’s offensive line ranks 6th in line yards, 14th in opportunity ranking and 4th in stuff rankings - an average differential of 98 ranks! Bronco and this Virginia team beat Fuente and the hokies last year for the first time after losing to them 3 straight years - I think they carry that momentum into this week and finish the season off strong now that they are healthy at starting QB.
      Comment
      • Smutbucket
        SBR MVP
        • 03-14-08
        • 3996

        #38
        Season YTD: 55-50 (+0.83 units)

        Week 15 Adding:
        Minnesota +10 (-107)
        Wisc/Iowa Under 41.5 (-113)
        UNC/Miami Under 68 (-108)
        Tennessee -16 (-111)
        Auburn -6 (-114)

        Minnesota +10 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
        A little shocked how high this number is, what because Nebraska upsets Purdue big they are all of a sudden big favs now? The numbers show this game will be MUCH closer and we should feast on all these points. Although Minnesota is in the bottom 10% of defenses in almost all PFF categories, their offense is a different story. Their overall offense ranks 15th in PFF, with a 72 pass ranking, 37th receiver ranking, 36th run ranking, and 9th run block ranking. A far cry better than Nebraska who ranks 107th overall on offense, 97th in pass ranking, 100th in receiver rankings, 39th in run and 115th in run block rankings. Nebraska’s defense although is not as bad as Minnesota granted, the differential between two sides still favors Minnesota heavily. We also have the better special teams according to PFF with Minnesota a 62 ranking and Nebraska a 96. We are also by far the more disciplined team ranking 20th in penalties per play where Nebraska ranks 93rd. Minnesota always loves to win the possession battle and chew up clock, ranking 4th in time of possession % rankings, a recipe that could wear out Nebraska's defense since their offense is the opposite - quick tempo and ranks 107th in time of possession %. As bad as Minnesota’s defense has been, they have really excelled in the red zone ranking 19th in red zone scoring % allowed. If we can hold Nebraska's offense to a couple field goals instead of touchdowns I see no reason why we don’t keep this one within 10 points.

        UNC/Miami Under 68 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
        Gotta be a little crazy to take this under but there are quite a few things that standout in this one that make me really like it. First and foremost both offensive lines are banged up and have struggled all season long and the pass rush is the strength of both of these teams as both defensive lines outrank the offensive line counterparts by 70 ranks in sack%. UNC has the much worse defense but Miami’s offense has known to struggle at times as they don’t have any great stand-out receivers or big playmakers and are ranked 65 in the receivers rating according to PFF. Their pass blocking PFF ranking is 67th and their run-blocking even worse at 98th. The past 4 games their pass-blocking has averaged a very low 53.75 rating and I think both lines will struggle at getting their playmakers space and time. Miami’s defense on the other hand graded out to it’s best PFF grades by far last week after taking a few weeks off. They had one missed tackle in 68 attempts, resulting in the highest tackling score of the PFF era (since 2014), a 92. Their two edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Quncy Roche may be the best duo in college football and expect them to disrupt the timing of UNC’s potent offense. Against any of the more difficult teams UNC has faced this has completely thrown their offense out of whack like when they graded out a 24.7 pass blocking PFF rating against Notre Dame and only put up 17 points. The last two years these teams faced off the games went over the total but this year this number is much higher and I think this one is a low-scoring affair much to the public surprise.

        Wisc/Iowa Under 41.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
        A classic winter BIG 10 match-up against two defensive power-houses and whoever gets to 20 points will win. According to FEI, both defenses outrank their offensive counterparts by an average of 50 ranks across all categories. Both teams love to run, and both defenses love to stop the run with Iowa only allowing 3.0 yards per carry on the season ranking 8th and Wisconsin and even better 2.9 ypc allowed ranking 5th. In coverage, the ypp allowed is almost as impressive as their run stopping numbers. Wisconsin ranks 3rd in yards per pass allowed and 2nd in completion % allowed. Iowa ranks 13th in ypp allowed and 41st in completion %. On offense, Iowa ranks 106th in passing and 71st in receiving PFF grades. Wisconsin ranks 50th in passing and 89th in receiving. Both offensive units won’t find much success in the air as both defensive secondaries are in the top 25 of coverage rankings as well. Wisconsin has struggled at protecting their QB ranking 88th in sack % allowed, which is another strength of this Iowa team that ranks 28th in sack%. The game will be a freezing cold game in Iowa and despite the total going over the last 3 years in this matchup - this one is primed for an under! Two unders in one week in 2020. We must be crazy, but for some reason I love them.

        Tennessee -16 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
        Vanderbilt is a disaster his year as they just fired their head coach and lost 41-0 to Missouri last week. Tennessee is a horrible 2-6 this year and 2-5 ATS but according to Sagarin - they have played the most difficult schedule in the country. Tennessee still substantially outranks Vandy despite having to face the toughest teams in the nation, as their offensive line outranks Vandy’s d-line by an average of 22 ranks across all line yard categories and Tennessee’s defensive line and even better average of 38 ranks across all categories. The FEI ratings show similar mismatches as Vanderbilts defense is virtually the WORST defense by the numbers you can possibly get with an average ranking of 113th across all categories. Not much else to talk about this one. Tennessee wins in blow-out fashion.

        Auburn -6 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
        I’ve been reluctant to bet this Auburn team but this late in the season and the fact they’re 4-5 ATS gives us good value in this spot. This biggest standout surprise in the numbers, was despite only allowing 3.3 yards per carry on the season, Miss. State’s defense PFF run defense ranks an insanely bad 103rd, and that's Auburn's offense's biggest strength as they rank 13th in rushing according to PFF. Nix doesn’t handle pressure well, but Mississippi State is not particularly effective at it ranking 67th in sack% allowed. Auburn’s biggest weakness this season is their rushing defense that ranks in the bottom of most line yard categories but Mississippi State's offense runs at an insanely low % only 22% on the year, ranking dead last! Auburn’s strength is their coverage but it’s not like they have to be great against a Mississippi State passing offense that has struggled to implement the air raid - they currently rank 103rd in passing and 116th in receiving. Auburn's veteran offense doesn’t make many mistakes ranking 13th in giveaways per game where Mississippi State struggles, ranking #122nd in giveaways per game averaging 2.5! Auburn's defense has struggled on 3rd down ranking 123rd in the nation, but that's not an area old Leach has been successful at this season himself with his offense ranking #110 in 3rd down conversion percentages. Mississippi State has been very fortunate to cover the last two by a close margin less than 7 points, but I see no way in hell this one stays within a TD. Take the points.
        Comment
        • thekoreanmang
          SBR MVP
          • 03-17-14
          • 1422

          #39
          Nice job, mang
          Comment
          • Smutbucket
            SBR MVP
            • 03-14-08
            • 3996

            #40
            Thanks dude! First year I was down big and pulled myself out of gutter!

            Season YTD: 60-53 (+3.13 units)



            Heres some data for anyone who wants to dig into. We got a comparative analysis of Offensive/Defensive Lines, FEI ratings, and PFF Grades.
            Comment
            • Smutbucket
              SBR MVP
              • 03-14-08
              • 3996

              #41
              Season YTD: 60-52 (+3.13 units)
              Week 15 Results: 6-2 (+3.8 units)

              This is probably it for me until the bowls as I got all the write-ups done early in the week with the short card - good luck all!

              Week 16: (write-ups below)
              USC -3 (-106)
              Iowa State +5.5 (-104)
              Tennessee TT Over 18.5 (-106)
              Tennessee +13.5 (+100) .5x
              Ole Miss/LSU Over 74 (-110)
              ND/Clemson Under 60 (-114)
              Wisconsin -12.5 (-107)
              Illinois +15.5 (-103)

              USC -3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
              Not only is USC playing for an undefeated 6 game season, I would think their team morale is a lot better than Oregon who is still finding their feet after 3 of their top 4 returning tacklers from last year all opted out of the season. They started off the season 3-0 against weak competition with Wash State and Stanford, and keep in mind when UCLA played them they didn't have DTR for the first time. Since then they have dropped their last two against a disheveled Cal and up and coming but super soft defense Oregon State. The biggest surprise this offseason has been USC’s improvement in their defensive secondary as they currently rank 14th in PFF coverage ratings, a big improvement from last year's 64th rating. They have a much better defensive unit then years past and much better than Oregon’s this year on paper as USC ranks an impressive 38th across all FEI categories while Oregon’s ranks a lowly 84th. USC’s explosive offense that ranks 23rd in passing PFF and 29th in receiving PFF, should have a great day against Oregon’s secondary that ranks 53rd in coverage PFF. We also have a significant edge in special teams as Oregon ranks one of the league's worst 123rd and have missed 3 of 6 FGs on the season where USC’s special teams is a middle of the pack unit ranking 62nd and their kicker has hit 8 of 11 FGs on the season. We should also win the turnover battle handedly if this years turnover performance to date is any indicator of how this game will play out as USC has been great at forcing turnovers this season ranking 3rd in the nation averaging 3 takeaways per game where Oregon struggles and have averaged 2.2 turnovers per game ranking #118th. USC had a great come back from behind win against a tough UCLA team last week (and with DTR back) and I think they ride off into the sunset with a soft cupcake undefeated PAC12* covid season under their belt. I bought to -2.5 with my book and you probably should too.

              Iowa State +5.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
              No surprise here if you’ve been following my write-ups. Had Iowa State in the first match-up and see no reason why they should be getting this many points again- It will most certainly be a close one. Sorry no real write-up in this one just go read my Week 5 write-up of this same matchup. Expected rain too which I think favors Iowa State the better running team.

              Tennessee TT Over 18.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
              Tennessee +13.5 (+100) Risking .5 units to win .5 units
              A true contrarian pick currently as of Friday morning most consensus sites show a HECK of a lot more gamblers on Texas AM and currently at pickmonitor there are 14 cappers that have selected Texas AM and 0 that have selected Tennessee. Tennessee’s biggest problem the last 3 years has been their QB play as Guarantano is an extremely turnover prone and crappy QB who currently has an absolutely horrid 32.9 handsfumble rating on PFF. His career has almost as many turnovers as it does TD’s and if you count all 16 times he put the ball on the ground he is very fortunate to only have the 7 fumbles lost in his career. After alternating backups and giving both prospects a chance, Tennessee looks to have finally found their man in Harrison Bailey. He sports a nice 67.7 completion percentage on the year and has averaged 8 yards per attempt with 3 TDs and 2 INT’s (both against Arkansas - his first game with real reps). One of Texas AM’s weaknesses this year has been their defensive line - as they rank 72nd in line yards, 74th in opportunity rate, 101st in power success rate, and 43rd in stuff ranking. An area where Tennessee has excelled all season and they outrank them in every category on the offensive line ranking 22nd in line yards, 30th in opportunity rate, 63rd in power success rate and 27th in stuff rankings. The FEI matchups show a strong advantage to Texas AM but QB play should be factored into the horrible offensive numbers for Tennessee and I think they catch Texas AM a little off guard who has been off for two weeks and will be taking their 3-6 conference opponent lightly as this will be the first time each team is matching up against each other since their current coaching staffs took over. Pruitt has also had a history and coached under Jimbo back in FSU in 2013 so he will know his opponent well.

              Ole Miss/LSU Over 74 (-110) Risking 1.10 to win 1 units
              First play I locked in after organizing all the numbers and comparing all the games. This one screams over and although it has shot up 3.5 points already I still like the over as this one seems primed for another 2020 100 point shootout. According to PFF, both offenses outrank their defensive counterparts by over 55 ranks. Ole Miss’s defense is absolutely horrible ranking 108th overall, 108th in coverage, and 106th in Run defense. Their offense on the other hand ranks 23rd overall, 11th in passing, 6th in receiving, and 25th in the run game. They should run all over this LSU defense that ranks 106th according to PFF. Both teams can’t tackle as LSU is ranked 83rd in tacking and Ole Miss 69th. According to FEI, we have more of the same gross mismatches, across all categories Ole Miss’s offense outranks LSU’s defense by 53 ranks. LSU’s offense (which now is much more potent than their season numbers suggest due to injuries/breaking in new guys) outranks Ole Miss’s defense by 28 ranks across all FEI categories. LSU should also run all over the Ole Miss defensive line who ranks in the bottom 5% of all categories, ranking 123rd in line yards, 114th in opportunity rate, 107th in power success rank, 106th in stuff ranking and 102 in sack%. Both teams are in the Top 10 of plays per game, with Ole Miss ranking 3rd and ranking 98th in average time off possession (insane stat on pace of play) The last 3 years in this matchup the game went well over the projected total and the numbers weren’t nearly as skewed in the offenses favor as this year. This should be an easy and fun one to have money on.

              ND/Clemson Under 60 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
              Love this under as when teams face each other twice in one season it seems to favor the defense (especially defenses of this caliber) in the 2nd matchup in the few times this has happened in the modern-era (post 2000). I found 7 instances where teams faced off twice in one season and in 5 of the 7 games the totals were significantly under or under the projected total, excluding a few outliers like UCF/Memphis in 2018 where neither program has coached defenses for generations. These are two defenses that are in the top 10 of almost every advanced statistical category you could measure. The defensive lines are massive, with Notre Dame’s ranking 1st in line yards, 1st in opportunity rate, 4th in power success rate, 1st in stuff ranking, and 27th in sack%. Of course Clemson’s defensive line is also in the Top 15 of all d-line categories except one and is the norm for a Venables defense. In FEI, Clemson's defense has an average ranking of 5th across all categories and Notre Dame’s 17th. In PFF, Notre Dame’s ranks 9th in overall defense, 18th in coverage and 10 in run defense. Clemson, in PFF, ranks 4th in overall defense, 15th in coverage, and 3rd in run defense. The offenses get a lot of hype but they aren't nearly as high in each statistical category as their defensive counterparts. The best thing about this one was the fact the first matchup was an 87 point OT shootout which I think is driving this number higher, and I think this one stays well under the total, given the numbers of these two defenses.

              Wisconsin -12.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
              Too much weight is being held on Wisconsin's recent poor offensive performance only averaging 7 points in the last 3 games but that was against the best 3 defenses in the Big 10 outside of Ohio State. This Minnesota defense will be a much easier opponent for them to throw around as they are ranked 112th in overall PFF defense, 96th in coverage, and 122nd in rush defense. Wisconsin’s offense that is typically great in the run game yet struggled the last three should have a great day opening up the entire offense and giving some relief to Mertz who looked excellent in his first two games as well. Minnesota’s offense lives and dies by their run game (rushing for 60% of the time) but unfortunately for them that is the strength of this Wisconsin team. They are currently ranked 12th in opponent yards per rush allowing only 3.2 ypc. Wisconsin’s PFF rush defense ranks 5th and none of the previous teams Minnesota has played had nearly as good of a run defense (except Iowa which blew them out 35-7) and I expect the final to be very similar to that one.

              Illinois +15.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
              Really love this play as I think Penn State’s being overvalued after beating 3 crummy teams down in Michigan State, Michigan, and Rutgers. Illinois looks much better since Brandon Peters returned to the starting role as he was injured the first half of the season after being knocked out in the first game against Wisconsin. He’s an experienced veteran who spent two years at Michigan under Harbaugh before transferring to Illinois. Although not the best QB, his PFF grades have increased every season in every category - he seems to be the type to do well against soft defenses and struggle against tough defenses like he did last week against Northwestern's 5th best ranked secondary. This Penn State secondary is very exploitable and are currently ranked 81st in PFF coverage ratings. Illinois’s struggles on defense have come in the run game allowing 5.2 yards per carry on the season, but that’s not an area where Penn State excels as they rank 92nd in yards per carry only averaging 3.8 on the season. On paper, the one area we do have a huge significant edge on is the FEI offensive/defensive turnover rate as Illinois has been great at protecting the ball and forcing turnovers ranking 34th in offensive turnover rate and 7th in defensive turnover rate. Penn State has been the opposite as they are ranked 110th in offensive turnover rate and 111th in defensive turnover rate. As long as we win the turnover rate like we should and considering Penn State's defensive secondary woes this season I see no reason why Illinois can’t keep this game within two TDs.
              Comment
              • Smutbucket
                SBR MVP
                • 03-14-08
                • 3996

                #42
                Week 16 Results: 2-6 ( -3.76 units)
                Season YTD: 62-59 (-0.63 units)

                2020 Bowls:
                Nevada +1.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
                I normally don’t like to bet on these crap teams outside of the power conferences but I love this matchup. First off, it’s rare that a team will be playing without it’s two coordinators for it’s bowl game and that's the position this Tulane team is in as Willie Fritz wasn’t happy with the defense and fired the defensive coordinator after the regular season and offensive coordinator Will Hall got hired as the head coach at Southern Miss so he won’t be there either. Fritz fired Jack Curtis because of how poor their secondary was, ranking #110th in yards per pass, 92nd in defensive passing efficiency, and 57th in PFF coverage rankings. Nevada’s pass game and receivers are the strength of the team as they throw for 62% of the time and rank 17th in passing and 45th in receiving according to PFF. QB Carson Strong is completing 69% of his passes and has only 4 INT’s on the season on 327 attempts - ranked 14th in INT% allowed. Tulane’s biggest strength on defense was their defensive line but at least 2 of it’s 3 starting defensive line-man are expected to miss this game due to personal reasons including NFL prospect Patrick Johnson who leads the team in sacks by a lot. Tulane’s strengths on offense are also playing into Nevada’s strengths on defense as Tulane is a run-first team, rushing the ball 60% of the time and averaging 5.1 yards per carry - but Nevada’s run defense has been their strength only allowing 3.8 yards per carry on the season (ranking 33rd) - their run defense is ranked 29th according to PFF - and although Tulane’s run offense is ranked a superb 9th in the league, their run-blocking grades are ranked a very low 93rd. Nevada’s defense significantly outranks Tulane’s offense in all 3 major PFF categories (overall, pass/coverage, run/run-def). A look at their PFF game log also shows more consistency in overall grades across the board for Nevada than Tulane. This should be a close game and may come down to the final possession so it’s good we also have the much better kicker who surprisingly for a college kicker has hit 15 of 17 attempts, where Tulane’s kicker has only hit 9 of 14 attempts. Wasn’t expecting to have a play today but after digging into the numbers uncovered this nice looking play - take Nevada!
                Comment
                • thekoreanmang
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-17-14
                  • 1422

                  #43
                  Spot on!
                  Comment
                  • Smutbucket
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-14-08
                    • 3996

                    #44
                    Thanks, Merry XMAS fellas!

                    Bowls YTD: 2-0 (+2 units)
                    Season YTD: 64-59 (+1.37 units)

                    Bowl Adds:

                    Marshall +4.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
                    The biggest standout stat for this game for me was the surprise of how good head coach for Marshall, Doc Holidays is at getting his team ready for bowl games. He has not only won by covered 6 of the last 7 bowls at Marshall. On the other side, Lance Leipold, since coming up to D1 in 2015 has struggled, especially his first two years going 7-17 at Buffalo. Since he has improved but in his two Bowls Games he is 1-1. Both teams have had an extremely weak SOS so their stats are both padded, but Marshall’s is a little more difficult and they had 3 more games then Buffalo. According to PFF, we have lots of strong advantages on both sides of the ball. On offense, Marshall outranks Buffalo’s defense in every counterpart PFF category as Buffalo is only an overall 37 PFF on defense. Marshall’s defense has been phenomenal. According to PFF, they are currently ranked 3rd in overall defense, 6th in coverage, 5th in run defense, and 2nd in tackling (a huge advantage over a Buffalo team that ranks 69th in tackling). We also have a strong special teams edge as Marshall is ranked 8th in the more complete team on both sides of the ball. Buffalo’s offensive strength is their run game, averaging 7.2 yards per carry (#1) but that was against VERY SOFT competition. The toughest run defense I could find that they played to date was Ball State in the championship game, but Ball State is ranked 52nd in run defense according to PFF and still held Marshall to 134 yards on 29 carries. Marshall’s defensive front will be the toughest they have faced to date as they have only allowed 2.7 yards per carry (ranked 3rd) (okay against weak competition too but still). I love getting this many points with these numbers, and the line moved this morning apparently because Patterson is playing which I didn't expect - but still like the play regardless.
                    Comment
                    • Smutbucket
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-14-08
                      • 3996

                      #45
                      Dapper Dan Picks:
                      BOWLS YTD: 2-1 (+0.86 units)
                      Season YTD: 66-60 (0.23 units)

                      Bowl Adds:
                      Oklahoma State ML (-135)
                      Wisconsin -7 (-117)
                      Florida -2.5 (-114)

                      Oklahoma State ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
                      As painful as it was to place this bet, it had to be done. Miami’s defense has been horrible especially lately as they have allowed 12.6 yards per completion in their last 3 games and allowed 554 yards on the ground on 55 carries against UNC in their last game (not a typo). They will be without 3 of their best defenders in this game including NFL prospects Roche and Phillips who combined for 31 TFL on the season and the one strength of this defense. Gundy loves the shallow crosses and UNC tore Miami’s defense apart with them. If Okie State can buy time at the line of scrimmage (which they should with Miami’s opt outs), receivers Wallace and Stoner should present big problems for Miami’s corners. Oklahoma State’s biggest strength this season has been their defense as it looks like veteran coordinator Jim Knowles’s defensive schemes have finally taken to the program after struggling in his first two years. They are currently ranked in Top 20 of almost all FEI categories including 10th in D-FEI. They are ranked 10th in coverage in PFF and although Miami has a great QB in King, he has no big weapons around him as his receivers rank 59th in PFF. Okie State’s defensive line also heavily outranks Miami’s offensive line who has struggled this season with an average ranking of 83rd across all line categories, a big mismatch on paper for Okie State’s defensive line that ranks 24th across all categories. The pass rush, and TFL’s should be particularly difficult for this Miami team who has allowed 8.2 TFL per game and a sack% allowed ranking of 92nd. Okie State’s defense who loves to blitz and create havoc in the back field should have a big day as they rank 8th in TFL’s and 9th in sack %. Let’s take the better defense and small spread in a very rare occasion where I bet against my home team. (either way we win, right?)

                      Wisconsin -7 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
                      Although the numbers aren’t so heavily skewed in Whisky’s favor in this matchup, they would be a lot more if you factor in SOS. According to Sagarin, Wisconsin had the 21st hardest schedule where Wake’s ranked 60th. Not only has Wake had the much easier schedule but they’ve barely played in the last two months, with their last game being on 12/12/20 and only game before that in November being on 11/14/20 due to covid protocols. This game should be won in the trenches, as Wisconsin is notoriously stout up front and their line ranks 9th in line yards and 2nd in opportunity rank. Despite not getting much pressure this season (ranked 81st in sack%) they should be able to get to Hartman as Wake’s offensive line ranks 109th in sack % allowed. Although Hartman and his receiving corps rank 14 and 15th overall in PFF, they haven't faced a secondary like this yet (aside from the Clemson blowout). Wisconsin’s secondary is ranked 5th in completion % allowed and 11th in opponent yards per pass. They are also ranked #1 in opponents 3rd down conversion % only only opponents to convert 25% of their 3rd downs, and area where Wake Forest’s offense has struggled ranking 79th in 3rd down conv%. They also excel in the red zone only allowing opponents to score 69% of the time, ranking 6th. Hopefully Whisky’s offense sees some life with returning freshman Jalen Berger who has been hampered with injuries all season but is averaging 5.93 yards per carry when he touches the ball. Wisconsin should run at will against this Wake front that has been horrible against the run all season (ranking 98th allowing 5 yards per rush) and will be without their sack leader DE, “Boogie” Basham. Wisconsin’s offense should wear down this wake defense and control the clock like they have done all season averaging 61% of TOP% (ranking 1st) which is a weakness of Wake Forest and their up-tempo pass happy offense that ranks 102nd in TOP%.

                      Florida -2.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
                      Went back and forth on whether to go with the over or gators and decided the gators were a much better bet. (sprinkle some on over if action junkie) Again we have a heavy SOS mismatch as the SEC is light years ahead of the BIG 12 in level of competition and this year the SOS mismatches in our bowl games will be much more evident as teams only played in conference so expect the SEC teams to have a big leg up on other teams with weaker competition. Sagarin has Oklahoma ranked 53rd where Florida’s ranked 15th. Despite the much more difficult schedule, Florida’s offense although one dimensional, is much more potent through the air as Kyle Trask is an absolute beast completing 69.5% of his passes, averaging 10 yards per attempt, with 43 TD’s and only 5 INTs. The rookie Rattler had almost 100 less attempts and only averaged 9.5 yards per attempt and had only 25 TD’s and 7 INTs, most of which were racked up against the likes of Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas State, teams that are much worse than the bottom of the SEC. Trask will be without elite TE, Pitts, but Trask and Mullen were still able to put up 45 points per game in their 3 other games this season; they had to play without him so this won’t be anything new for them. We also have the much more disciplined team as Florida ranks 28th in penalties per play and 29th in penalty yards per game, where Oklahoma ranks 104th in penalties per play and 105th in penalty yards per game. I think this will be a close and awesome game to watch but I will take the much more talented and experienced QB and Lincoln Riley is one of the worst coaches at second half adjustments and Todd Grantham (Defensive coordinator for UF) although has struggled this season, is one of the better DC’s in the league as I have him rated an A- on my coaches grading as he’s led a few Top 25 defenses at multiple programs all over the SEC. This will be a fun one! Note: more opt outs were made and line dropped some more since I wrote this write-up but still not scared - take the +3 if you can! I locked in right before the big move, typical.
                      Comment
                      • thekoreanmang
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-17-14
                        • 1422

                        #46
                        Good job, so far, this bowl season, my friend. Your writeups are some of the best I've seen win or lose. Thank you for sharing your time. It is much appreciated. Have a great new year!
                        Comment
                        • Smutbucket
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-14-08
                          • 3996

                          #47
                          Thanks KoreanMang!

                          Bowl Adds:
                          Clemson -7 (-112)
                          Kentucky ML (-127)
                          Iowa State ML (-195)

                          Clemson -7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
                          Was waiting for this line to drop to 7. I think Clemson is the best team in college football as they are the most well-rounded team and more experienced and better coaching staff. Despite offensive coordinator Tony Elliot being out for this game, I think seasoned veteran Trevor Lawrence who sports a 38-1 record as a starter and maybe one of the greatest college QBs of all time will be fine without his OC. The biggest mismatch will be at the line of scrimmage, where despite Ohio State having one of the most mobile QBs in the league, still sport a 111th sack% allowed. An area where Clemson has thrived all season long as they currently rank 2nd in sack%. Ohio State’s offensive line has been great in the run game, rankin 5th according to PFF in rushing and 22nd in run blocking - but the best rush defense they faced all season was Penn State who ranks 19th in PFF against the run (the average ranking of their opponents run defense on PFF was 58th!) This Clemson defensive line ranks 2nd against the run and in their last game held Notre Dame, one of the best offensive lines in the nation to 44 yards on 30 carries. A testament to how great Brent Venables is as in their first matchup Notre Dame ran for 208 yards on 40 carries so he made the proper adjustments and had his team prepared. Although Ohio State’s defense sports some really good numbers, it was only against 6 different opponents and Clemson’s still has much better numbers in almost every category including 3rd conversion % allowed at 31% (rank 13), Red zone scoring % allowed at 76% (ranked 29th) and opponent yards per play allowed at 4.5 (ranking 5th). Ohio State is really banged up too with 21 players recently listed on the injury report as questionable. I like Clemson to win big and will most likely be on Clemson in the finals.

                          Kentucky ML (-127) Risking 1.27 units to win 1 units
                          I like Kentucky to squeeze out a victory in this one as they match-up great against this NC State team that has done well despite losing starting QB, Devin Leary early on the season. Even without star CB Kelvin Joseph, this will be the toughest secondary NC State has seen and although they have struggled at times this season I don’t think many great secondaries could hold up against the passing attacks of Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia, Florida and Alabama. They should be able to pick off Hockman a few times as NC State sports a 93rd ranked INT % allowed where Kentucky’s defense thrives ranking 17th in INT %. Kentucky takes care of the ball well as they only average 1.2 giveaways per game (ranking 38th). Kentucky prefers to run and their offensive line has done it well ranking 30th in line yards, 19th in power success rate, and 11th in stuff ranking. They have struggled protecting Wilson in the passing game but that's not a strength of NC State who ranks 49th in sack%. Kentucky’s defense are the much better tacklers, ranking 22nd in PFF where NC State ranks 99th (despite the softer schedule!). We also have a slight edge in special teams as Kentucky ranks 61st according to PFF where NC State ranks 82nd and Kentucky's FG kicker sports a slightly better FG %. Kentucky is also a much more disciplined team as NC State ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all Penalty categories while Kentucky ranks in the middle of the league. Kentucky will chew up the clock and control the line of scrimmage and I see them pulling out the win in the end standing true to the SEC name.

                          Iowa State ML (-195) Risking 1.95 units to win 1 units
                          No write-up for this one sorry everyone but pretty obvious I’ve been hammering Iowa State all year long and have no respect for PAC 12 teams playing 6 games.
                          Comment
                          • thekoreanmang
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-17-14
                            • 1422

                            #48
                            Great writeups as usual and tailing on Clemson -7 so far. But, wouldn't it just be better to bet IAST -4 given your confidence level in them and lack thereof in their Pac12 opponent?
                            Comment
                            • Smutbucket
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-14-08
                              • 3996

                              #49
                              Just being cautious as only 3 bets of season left and right at even money and would like to end up on the year.

                              Good luck

                              Big surprise last night but the bs targeting and fumbles that Lawrence had possession of on the ground that was said to be not ‘true possession” were complete bs . Way too much money was on Clemson so refs said here you go Ohio state

                              Bowl Adds:
                              Texas A&M -7.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
                              No write-up sorry out in the mountains with the fam and shotty connection at best
                              Comment
                              • Smutbucket
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-14-08
                                • 3996

                                #50
                                Bowls: 8-5 (+2.26 units)

                                2020 Season Final YTD: 70-64 (+1.63 units)


                                Dug into the final game and could not find a side to take, the last play Texas A&M will wrap up my season. Although not immensely profitable, we were still in the green, bringing my career online forum postings here at SBR to 9 seasons, 6 of which were profitable and a total record of 675-651 (52%). Despite this being the COVID year, this was the first year in my history of gambling where I was in a huge hole in the middle of the season (after week 10 was 31-42 (-14.22 units)) but managed to go on an awesome run to finish the season and turn a profit. (Afterwards going 39-22 +15.85 units). The hardest part about gambling is controlling your emotions and stopping the losing mentality after a couple bad breaks and discouraging beats - to focus on the numbers and not be clouded by all the market activity. Cheers to 2020, and will be spending some extra time in the offseason this year prepping for 2021 and posting my picks again here next season.
                                Comment
                                • thekoreanmang
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-17-14
                                  • 1422

                                  #51
                                  Much appreciated. You're the mang. Great work this year. In terms of prep for next year what do you do?
                                  Comment
                                  • Smutbucket
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-14-08
                                    • 3996

                                    #52
                                    This year Im going to mainly focus on coaching analysis in the off-season, I did thorough ones a few years ago and have been using those - but overdue for updating them to full extent


                                    Thnaks!
                                    Comment
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