Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 48-48 (-4.4 units)
Week 14 adds:
Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111)
Arkansas +3 (-114)
LSU +29 (+100)
Miami -14.5 (-111)
Utah -11 (-113)
Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Not scared by the fact that the bookies have moved the line up by 3 points since the opener and juicing it still. There’s all kinds of reasons why this will be another unprecedented 2020 shootout where both teams score in the 40’s. Both defenses by the number are some of the lowest ranked units in the league. According to PFF, Nebraska is ranked 100th in overall defense, 98th in coverage, and 96th in run defense. Purdue’s is not much better ranking 85th in overall defense, 40th in run defense, and 117th in coverage. Purdue defense got dominated last week by Rutgers read-option especially in the 2nd half when senior leading tackling LB David Barnes got ejected and will be missing the first half of this game. Nebraska loves the read option and Scott Frost loves to go for the big play. Both QBs normally struggle with pressure but they shouldn't have any as either of these two defensive lines have done much of anything this season, ranking 90th and 125th in sack%. Purdue’s elite receiving corps (David Bell, Milton Wright and Ronale Moore) should have a field day against this soft pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass (ranked 82nd) and allowed opponents to complete 64% of their passes (ranked 91st). Both these coaches love to play tempo - although both of their plays per game stats this season are lower than years past, it’s only because both teams TOP% is well below 50. Take the over.
Arkansas +3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Missouri has been fortunate enough to cover the last two games after facing two programs that are riddled with injuries and departures. Arkansas has had one of the toughest schedules to date, ranking 3rd in GLS SOS scale and have had close games even with their better opponents. Their biggest strength is their pass defense where they rank 32nd in PFF and 28th in yards per pass allowed (even after facing Florida, Texas AM, Auburn, and UGA). Missouri prefers to pass as they throw 50% of the time, more than most teams and have not got much push up front only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Missouri’s defensive numbers are heavily padded against the terrible offensive teams they have played including Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Kentucky - their PFF rankings game log show their run defense and coverage barely broke a 60 PFF ratings against their better opponents. Arkansas’s biggest problem on offense has been their ability to protect and give Felipe time but Missouri is not very good in the pass rush ranking 78th in sack%. I had to do a double take when looking at their offensive passing numbers as they are quietly one of the better teams in the nation ranking 18th in yards per pass and 17th in completion percentage - as long as they get the throws off and isnt facing pressure the veteran Franks has been surprisingly good. Arkansas has lost the last 4 straight to Missouri but I think this one as this would be a huge win for the program as they are sitting currently with a 3-5 record (but against tough competition) and will give it everything they got to fight for new head coach Greg Schiano (haha just kidding you assholes I know it’s Sam Pittman and mistakenly put Schiano in a past Arkansas writeup as it wasn't particularly important to that write-up and both are penetrating red #fuckoff)
Miami -14.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Buy this number down to 14 obviously if you can but I’m using pickmonitor to track picks and am unable to currently do so - but I don’t think it matters regardless. After losing two years in a row to Duke, this has all the makings of a revenge matchup where Miami will put up as many points as they possibly can against their ACC foe, Duke who has struggled a lot this season including getting blown out by Georgia Tech last week. The last two years these teams faced off it was pouring rain which helped Duke accumulate 12 sacks in two years, but this year King won’t be as pathetic as Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry were. On both sides of the ball Miami has HEAVY advantages across almost all FEI categories as they outrank Duke’s team by an average of 21 ranks on offense and an average of 50 ranks on defense! Duke’s weak offensive line will be a particularly huge mismatch for Miami as they are ranked 112th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rate, 100th in power success rate, 68th in stuff rankings and 103rd in sack%. Miami’s defensive line ranks 36th in line yards, 81st in opportunity rate, 37th in power success rate, 25th in stuff ranking, and 35th in sack%. Although Miami’s offensive line has struggled to run the ball this year, Duke’s defensive line is particularly bad at stopping the run allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season (ranking 89th). Duke’s offense is giving away an unprecedented 3.3 turnovers per game - and the team that invented the turnover chain will surely be busting it out in a lot as they blow-out Duke tonight after having 3 weeks off.
LSU +29 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Going to keep this write-up short as it was my last add for the day and gotta go back to my day job shortly after another long week. In short, Alabama has only beat two teams this year by more than 29 points and that was Miss. State and Kentucky. LSU has come a long way this season after struggling early on and they are a much better team with Finley at QB - I think he can keep this one within 4 TD’s with a worst case backdoor.
Utah -11 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
I love a good late night contrarian PAC 12 play and this one has all the indicators. Currently right now on Saturday morning on PickMonitor - there are 11 handicappers who have made a play of this one with 10 of them being on Oregon State. The stats for this match-up are even more heavily in our favor than this contrarian market angle. Chance Nolan will be getting his first ever start (and has only been on the team for the shit-show that is 2020) for Oregon State as starting QB Gebbia went down late in the game last week and although the injury report has him listed as “probable” - other Oregon State fan base articles indicate that he is not only injured but most likely missing the rest of the season. Hopefully he knows the playbook in the short time the PAC 12 has given the opportunity to learn it as he will have to do a lot through the air as in true PAC 12 fashion - this Utah run defense is stout. Utah’s run defense is ranked 38th in line yards and ranks #15 only allowing 3.2 yards per carry in their first two games - Utah’s front is always great and well coached under Kyle Whittingham. The combined defensive line yards ranking for Oregon State’s first four opponents? 105th - which is partly why Jenmar Jenkins has some eye-poppingly good stats averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Utah will shut-down this running attack and force this untested rookie to beat them deep. Utah should get an effective pass rush when Oregon State gets stuck behind the chains and Utah’s defense is notoriously good at getting pressure in those situations ranking 31st in sack% and an area where Oregon State struggles ranking 61st in sack % allowed. Jake Bentley seemed to settle into the offense last week completing 70% of his throws but made a few key mistakes under pressure - a thing Oregon State shouldnt get much ranking 121st in sack%. I think this is a blow-out and the casual gambler only sees that Utah is struggling at 0-2, and Oregon State upset the almighty Oregon last week and are going to “break-out” for a great season- which may have been the case but not with Chance Nolan leading the team - I’d be on it.
Season YTD: 48-48 (-4.4 units)
Week 14 adds:
Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111)
Arkansas +3 (-114)
LSU +29 (+100)
Miami -14.5 (-111)
Utah -11 (-113)
Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Not scared by the fact that the bookies have moved the line up by 3 points since the opener and juicing it still. There’s all kinds of reasons why this will be another unprecedented 2020 shootout where both teams score in the 40’s. Both defenses by the number are some of the lowest ranked units in the league. According to PFF, Nebraska is ranked 100th in overall defense, 98th in coverage, and 96th in run defense. Purdue’s is not much better ranking 85th in overall defense, 40th in run defense, and 117th in coverage. Purdue defense got dominated last week by Rutgers read-option especially in the 2nd half when senior leading tackling LB David Barnes got ejected and will be missing the first half of this game. Nebraska loves the read option and Scott Frost loves to go for the big play. Both QBs normally struggle with pressure but they shouldn't have any as either of these two defensive lines have done much of anything this season, ranking 90th and 125th in sack%. Purdue’s elite receiving corps (David Bell, Milton Wright and Ronale Moore) should have a field day against this soft pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass (ranked 82nd) and allowed opponents to complete 64% of their passes (ranked 91st). Both these coaches love to play tempo - although both of their plays per game stats this season are lower than years past, it’s only because both teams TOP% is well below 50. Take the over.
Arkansas +3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Missouri has been fortunate enough to cover the last two games after facing two programs that are riddled with injuries and departures. Arkansas has had one of the toughest schedules to date, ranking 3rd in GLS SOS scale and have had close games even with their better opponents. Their biggest strength is their pass defense where they rank 32nd in PFF and 28th in yards per pass allowed (even after facing Florida, Texas AM, Auburn, and UGA). Missouri prefers to pass as they throw 50% of the time, more than most teams and have not got much push up front only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Missouri’s defensive numbers are heavily padded against the terrible offensive teams they have played including Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Kentucky - their PFF rankings game log show their run defense and coverage barely broke a 60 PFF ratings against their better opponents. Arkansas’s biggest problem on offense has been their ability to protect and give Felipe time but Missouri is not very good in the pass rush ranking 78th in sack%. I had to do a double take when looking at their offensive passing numbers as they are quietly one of the better teams in the nation ranking 18th in yards per pass and 17th in completion percentage - as long as they get the throws off and isnt facing pressure the veteran Franks has been surprisingly good. Arkansas has lost the last 4 straight to Missouri but I think this one as this would be a huge win for the program as they are sitting currently with a 3-5 record (but against tough competition) and will give it everything they got to fight for new head coach Greg Schiano (haha just kidding you assholes I know it’s Sam Pittman and mistakenly put Schiano in a past Arkansas writeup as it wasn't particularly important to that write-up and both are penetrating red #fuckoff)
Miami -14.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Buy this number down to 14 obviously if you can but I’m using pickmonitor to track picks and am unable to currently do so - but I don’t think it matters regardless. After losing two years in a row to Duke, this has all the makings of a revenge matchup where Miami will put up as many points as they possibly can against their ACC foe, Duke who has struggled a lot this season including getting blown out by Georgia Tech last week. The last two years these teams faced off it was pouring rain which helped Duke accumulate 12 sacks in two years, but this year King won’t be as pathetic as Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry were. On both sides of the ball Miami has HEAVY advantages across almost all FEI categories as they outrank Duke’s team by an average of 21 ranks on offense and an average of 50 ranks on defense! Duke’s weak offensive line will be a particularly huge mismatch for Miami as they are ranked 112th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rate, 100th in power success rate, 68th in stuff rankings and 103rd in sack%. Miami’s defensive line ranks 36th in line yards, 81st in opportunity rate, 37th in power success rate, 25th in stuff ranking, and 35th in sack%. Although Miami’s offensive line has struggled to run the ball this year, Duke’s defensive line is particularly bad at stopping the run allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season (ranking 89th). Duke’s offense is giving away an unprecedented 3.3 turnovers per game - and the team that invented the turnover chain will surely be busting it out in a lot as they blow-out Duke tonight after having 3 weeks off.
LSU +29 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Going to keep this write-up short as it was my last add for the day and gotta go back to my day job shortly after another long week. In short, Alabama has only beat two teams this year by more than 29 points and that was Miss. State and Kentucky. LSU has come a long way this season after struggling early on and they are a much better team with Finley at QB - I think he can keep this one within 4 TD’s with a worst case backdoor.
Utah -11 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
I love a good late night contrarian PAC 12 play and this one has all the indicators. Currently right now on Saturday morning on PickMonitor - there are 11 handicappers who have made a play of this one with 10 of them being on Oregon State. The stats for this match-up are even more heavily in our favor than this contrarian market angle. Chance Nolan will be getting his first ever start (and has only been on the team for the shit-show that is 2020) for Oregon State as starting QB Gebbia went down late in the game last week and although the injury report has him listed as “probable” - other Oregon State fan base articles indicate that he is not only injured but most likely missing the rest of the season. Hopefully he knows the playbook in the short time the PAC 12 has given the opportunity to learn it as he will have to do a lot through the air as in true PAC 12 fashion - this Utah run defense is stout. Utah’s run defense is ranked 38th in line yards and ranks #15 only allowing 3.2 yards per carry in their first two games - Utah’s front is always great and well coached under Kyle Whittingham. The combined defensive line yards ranking for Oregon State’s first four opponents? 105th - which is partly why Jenmar Jenkins has some eye-poppingly good stats averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Utah will shut-down this running attack and force this untested rookie to beat them deep. Utah should get an effective pass rush when Oregon State gets stuck behind the chains and Utah’s defense is notoriously good at getting pressure in those situations ranking 31st in sack% and an area where Oregon State struggles ranking 61st in sack % allowed. Jake Bentley seemed to settle into the offense last week completing 70% of his throws but made a few key mistakes under pressure - a thing Oregon State shouldnt get much ranking 121st in sack%. I think this is a blow-out and the casual gambler only sees that Utah is struggling at 0-2, and Oregon State upset the almighty Oregon last week and are going to “break-out” for a great season- which may have been the case but not with Chance Nolan leading the team - I’d be on it.
