Who are the better cappers for college football?

[pags11]

zelda,

I've never heard of this dude and for him to tell me where I can and can't post when I was one of the first posters ever on SBR I think is a bit ridiculous...

I'm glad you feel the same way...dude I loved Legend of Zelda, used to play it 'til my fingers hurt!...

[hova24e]

What are the most important stats that you guys look at when capping NCAAF Games? Turnover margin, head to head games, etc?

[pags11]

gosh hova that's a great question...QB play, coaching, run defense, home field advantage, travel, running backs yard per carry, special teams play, depth on the defensive line...that's a start for you at least...

[SoonerBS]

What are the most important stats that you guys look at when capping NCAAF Games? Turnover margin, head to head games, etc?

Handicapping College Football 101
This is kind of a BIG subject with me, but I have been asked by a couple of posters how do I go about capping college football. I want to start my answer by first mentioning that there are different approaches to capping college football for profit and mine is only one approach.

First, my handicapping begins by gathering info and researching teams from the start of April whenever they start their Spring football sessions. You cannot learn everything you need to know from these sessions, but you do get some idea as to what the coaches are going to use personnel-wise for the upcoming season. You can also gather some info on what kind of offensive and defensive schemes they intend to run if they have intentions of changing them from the previous season. From April to the start of the first game, it is also important to keep a log of injuries, suspensions, transfers and other business that causes the absence of key personnel on each team. I usually spend the Summer reading articles about each team from the internet, Phil Steele's magazine, and Blue Ribbon Magazine.

Secondly, I try to find some great situations through the season for each team where there will likely be mismatches, "look ahead" spots, or revenge games that I can play on. This helps me to assess further the strengths and weaknesses of each team so I can increase my knowledge on them. This also helps me to know what teams are likely to be "fade" teams for the season, "play on" teams for the season, "UNDER" teams for the season, and "OVER" teams for the season.

Thirdly, I look for factors that will help me in my evaluation of the strength and weaknesses of teams. Personally, my handicapping of strength and weakness in a team begins with the offensive and defensive lines. Skill players, no matter how great they are, cannot perform without solid offensive lines. A good case of this was Colt McCoy for Texas. In 2006, Texas fans were touting his greatness due to the fantastic season he had as a freshman. What was not observed was the fact that he was playing behind one of the greatest offensive lines ever to play at Texas. Last season, many of those offensive linemen moved on. McCoy's numbers and production took a nose-dive because his protection was not as great with the weakness of the offensive line (that should improve this season by the way . . . ). Defensively, offenses can establish the run game against a weak defensive line. If a team can establish the run game, it opens the entire offense up to success. So, the lines are important to me whenever I start to assess how strong a team will be. Of course, you have to have good skill players as well (QB, RB, and WR). From there the linebacking corps and defensive backs need to be assessed. A team with a piss-poor defensive backfield will be slaughtered when playing a good passing team (Anyone remember Louisville last season?) Also, special team play has become very important in college football and should be assessed for the strength and weakness of a team. Other factors are coaching and roster depth (you can find this in Phil Steele's magazine).

By the time I come to the games and through the season, I look for situations (revenge, look-ahead, previous game let-downs, rivalry, etc.) to help me decide whether a line is worth playing. I am mostly a "situational" player myself. I love to play against teams in "look ahead" spots where they are going to be playing somebody better than their present opponent and I love to play on teams that lost or didn't cover the week before because they played well below their potential. I also like to fade teams in a game where the week before they played way over their heads.

I look at factors such as power rankings and trends in games to see if anything is way out of whack with a line. However, last season wreaked havoc on power ratings. BUT, last season was an unusual season and I don't think we are likely to see it as a norm.

There is also an element that cannot be explained by numbers, trends or situations. It's called the "gut" factor. Last year in Bowl season, I dropped a lot of my normal handicapping (mainly because it didn't produce well last year) and went mostly to the "gut" factor. I relied more on my knowledge of the strength and weaknesses of teams and played on teams that I felt were more powerful and likely to cover the spread. It ended up being vastly productive! Even more interesting is the fact that I used this same factor whenever I switched over to capping the NBA. The results were to end the season at 60% (would have been even better had I quit before the playoffs started -sigh-). I can't explain to you how to go by your gut instincts. In fact, some people's guts stink! (Pardon the pun). My gut instincts are always based on nearly 10 months of continual research and knowledge on college football.

Lastly, how do we judge whether a line is worth playing or not? Let me start by mentioning this -- Vegas is very good at setting lines on games. I think (and this is what I learned from last season) that we need to stop analyzing lines as much as simply accepting that the line is right. Now, we need to ask ourselves, since the line is right, which team, because of situations, strengths, weaknesses, offensive and defensive schemes, personnel, or otherwise is most likely to play better than the other and cover the line. I know that sounds too simplistic, but I think sometimes we make this more difficult than we need to do. Again, this has to be done by having knowledge on the teams playing and looking for motivating factors that might give one team an edge over others. Let me help you eliminate some games: it's not wise to play on a "road" favorite laying a bunch of points ever, I don't care how good they are and how great the line may look. Always play on teams that have a great chance of winning the game straight up and are catching points at home (you will not likely find this situation often, but occasionally it does occur.) Do not play on teams that are in a "rebuilding" year at the beginning of the season. However, monitor their progress because the losses they had the beginning of the season can easily turn into wins at the end of the season as the team gets more experience and plays better. Vegas usually sets good "dog" lines on these teams because of the way they started their season. Do not play on teams that have sucked all season long but catch what looks like a great line in one of their closing games.Whenever you have games where two teams of equal strengths and situations are playing and the line is close to a "pick 'em", play on the team with the most capable coach. Again, you need to have knowledge of the teams and coaches to implement this. Do not play against teams that are playing their last home game of the season. Also known as "Senior Day." These teams are usually highly motivated and need to be played on rather than against. Fade teams that are playing their first game on the road with a new starting QB.

[pags11]

great stuff soonerbs! Thank you!...

[xxdjstriderxx]

just fade jj, will end up with a better record than tailing anyone

[spongerat]

soonerbs you probably have a higher ratio of quality informative posts than anyone.

[Perfect Haze]

Hey paggs.. as I can see you are the man here.. I hope your picks can help me to make so money...

[Perfect Haze]

and thanks for that great info SoonerBS..

[Perfect Haze]

Well with a lot of humility, here are my picks for this first week.. I'll like to get some feedback as I'm gonna put a big bag of $ on them..

167 - Minnesota -6 1/2
161 - Missouri +7
161 - Missouri Over 60
182 - Alabama -7 *
182 - Alabama Under 38
171 - No Illinois + 16 1/2
160 - Oklahoma - 21
131 - Oregon Over 63

I also like the FH on Clemson's game, I also like the spread on Utah no matters if it is an in state game.. plus the under on that same game.. also Colorado st +10 1/2

[Perfect Haze]

My picks for this week

Well with a lot of humility, here are my picks for this first week.. I'll like to get some feedback as I'm gonna put a big bag of $ on them..

167 - Minnesota -6 1/2
161 - Missouri +7
161 - Missouri Over 60
130 - Utah -20 1/2
182 - Alabama Under 38
171 - No Illinois + 16 1/2
160 - Oklahoma - 21
131 - Oregon Over 63

I also like the FH on Clemson's game, I also like the spread on Utah no matters if it is an in state game.. plus the under on that same game.. also Colorado st +10 1/2

[cocknocker]

Can't really say if anyone is better than the next when it comes to college football. I thought that the guys who were supposed to be college basketball heavyweights were supposed to be able to hold their own. Then I came to find out that Machine Choice wasn't shit and TPowell is good, but wasn't on my level when the NCAA's arrived as I tore that shit up in front of EVERYBODY after only two weeks of warming up prior to the NCA Tournament. I heard that guys were really good at NFL then I went on to have a postseason that had only 4 losses TOTAL when I faced roasthawg in a playoffs challenge, so that was documented. The college bowl season last year made me an instant sensation when I went on to win all but 3 of my selections. Once again this was on the open threads. Then I heard that there were heavyweights in the NBA here. Whatever. We all know how my season went. And as usual my record for the NBA playoffs was the stuff of legends and done in front of EVERYBODY high profile style. Then before the WNBA season I heard that there were some good players in that sport here. Well, my project with Sexymit is doing well and I also have tons of unaccounted for plays within the body of that thread which we didn't agree upon but were winners anyway. So it is all predicated upon who you ask. My record was kept for all by a neutral scorekeeper, so I doubt that there was any discrepency with my work. I am the most high profile and most watched and most recorded wagerer year round here at SBR. I'm not saying that I'm the best, but I will hold my own against anyone here in this sport.

However, if you catch me in CFL I will lose my shirt, lol!

[jjgold]

Everyone runs hot and cold so no such thing really, we all have god and bad weaks.

I think most cappers are the same.

Fishhead might be a notch above the rest and also The HG

[head_strong]

Everyone runs hot and cold so no such thing really, we all have god and bad weaks.

I think most cappers are the same.

Fishhead might be a notch above the rest and also The HG

not true jjcold.....how can you speak on such a thing when you are a below average capper yourself.

[hova24e]

Thanks for the indepth answer. It seems some people on here don't like to share their "secrets to success"................................ .

Handicapping College Football 101
This is kind of a BIG subject with me, but I have been asked by a couple of posters how do I go about capping college football. I want to start my answer by first mentioning that there are different approaches to capping college football for profit and mine is only one approach.

First, my handicapping begins by gathering info and researching teams from the start of April whenever they start their Spring football sessions. You cannot learn everything you need to know from these sessions, but you do get some idea as to what the coaches are going to use personnel-wise for the upcoming season. You can also gather some info on what kind of offensive and defensive schemes they intend to run if they have intentions of changing them from the previous season. From April to the start of the first game, it is also important to keep a log of injuries, suspensions, transfers and other business that causes the absence of key personnel on each team. I usually spend the Summer reading articles about each team from the internet, Phil Steele's magazine, and Blue Ribbon Magazine.

Secondly, I try to find some great situations through the season for each team where there will likely be mismatches, "look ahead" spots, or revenge games that I can play on. This helps me to assess further the strengths and weaknesses of each team so I can increase my knowledge on them. This also helps me to know what teams are likely to be "fade" teams for the season, "play on" teams for the season, "UNDER" teams for the season, and "OVER" teams for the season.

Thirdly, I look for factors that will help me in my evaluation of the strength and weaknesses of teams. Personally, my handicapping of strength and weakness in a team begins with the offensive and defensive lines. Skill players, no matter how great they are, cannot perform without solid offensive lines. A good case of this was Colt McCoy for Texas. In 2006, Texas fans were touting his greatness due to the fantastic season he had as a freshman. What was not observed was the fact that he was playing behind one of the greatest offensive lines ever to play at Texas. Last season, many of those offensive linemen moved on. McCoy's numbers and production took a nose-dive because his protection was not as great with the weakness of the offensive line (that should improve this season by the way . . . ). Defensively, offenses can establish the run game against a weak defensive line. If a team can establish the run game, it opens the entire offense up to success. So, the lines are important to me whenever I start to assess how strong a team will be. Of course, you have to have good skill players as well (QB, RB, and WR). From there the linebacking corps and defensive backs need to be assessed. A team with a piss-poor defensive backfield will be slaughtered when playing a good passing team (Anyone remember Louisville last season?) Also, special team play has become very important in college football and should be assessed for the strength and weakness of a team. Other factors are coaching and roster depth (you can find this in Phil Steele's magazine).

By the time I come to the games and through the season, I look for situations (revenge, look-ahead, previous game let-downs, rivalry, etc.) to help me decide whether a line is worth playing. I am mostly a "situational" player myself. I love to play against teams in "look ahead" spots where they are going to be playing somebody better than their present opponent and I love to play on teams that lost or didn't cover the week before because they played well below their potential. I also like to fade teams in a game where the week before they played way over their heads.

I look at factors such as power rankings and trends in games to see if anything is way out of whack with a line. However, last season wreaked havoc on power ratings. BUT, last season was an unusual season and I don't think we are likely to see it as a norm.

There is also an element that cannot be explained by numbers, trends or situations. It's called the "gut" factor. Last year in Bowl season, I dropped a lot of my normal handicapping (mainly because it didn't produce well last year) and went mostly to the "gut" factor. I relied more on my knowledge of the strength and weaknesses of teams and played on teams that I felt were more powerful and likely to cover the spread. It ended up being vastly productive! Even more interesting is the fact that I used this same factor whenever I switched over to capping the NBA. The results were to end the season at 60% (would have been even better had I quit before the playoffs started -sigh-). I can't explain to you how to go by your gut instincts. In fact, some people's guts stink! (Pardon the pun). My gut instincts are always based on nearly 10 months of continual research and knowledge on college football.

Lastly, how do we judge whether a line is worth playing or not? Let me start by mentioning this -- Vegas is very good at setting lines on games. I think (and this is what I learned from last season) that we need to stop analyzing lines as much as simply accepting that the line is right. Now, we need to ask ourselves, since the line is right, which team, because of situations, strengths, weaknesses, offensive and defensive schemes, personnel, or otherwise is most likely to play better than the other and cover the line. I know that sounds too simplistic, but I think sometimes we make this more difficult than we need to do. Again, this has to be done by having knowledge on the teams playing and looking for motivating factors that might give one team an edge over others. Let me help you eliminate some games: it's not wise to play on a "road" favorite laying a bunch of points ever, I don't care how good they are and how great the line may look. Always play on teams that have a great chance of winning the game straight up and are catching points at home (you will not likely find this situation often, but occasionally it does occur.) Do not play on teams that are in a "rebuilding" year at the beginning of the season. However, monitor their progress because the losses they had the beginning of the season can easily turn into wins at the end of the season as the team gets more experience and plays better. Vegas usually sets good "dog" lines on these teams because of the way they started their season. Do not play on teams that have sucked all season long but catch what looks like a great line in one of their closing games.Whenever you have games where two teams of equal strengths and situations are playing and the line is close to a "pick 'em", play on the team with the most capable coach. Again, you need to have knowledge of the teams and coaches to implement this. Do not play against teams that are playing their last home game of the season. Also known as "Senior Day." These teams are usually highly motivated and need to be played on rather than against. Fade teams that are playing their first game on the road with a new starting QB.

[SoonerBS]

Thanks for the indepth answer. It seems some people on here don't like to share their "secrets to success"................................ .

You're welcome . . . . .

[Skanless1]

me, when i follow pags! lol.

[paco]

ZBoiz, claims its his specialty

[rynop123]

How Could nobody vote for DAC???


Solid Capper

[pags11]

thanks perfect haze...

[SexyMit]

Handicapping College Football 101
This is kind of a BIG subject with me, but I have been asked by a couple of posters how do I go about capping college football. I want to start my answer by first mentioning that there are different approaches to capping college football for profit and mine is only one approach.

First, my handicapping begins by gathering info and researching teams from the start of April whenever they start their Spring football sessions. You cannot learn everything you need to know from these sessions, but you do get some idea as to what the coaches are going to use personnel-wise for the upcoming season. You can also gather some info on what kind of offensive and defensive schemes they intend to run if they have intentions of changing them from the previous season. From April to the start of the first game, it is also important to keep a log of injuries, suspensions, transfers and other business that causes the absence of key personnel on each team. I usually spend the Summer reading articles about each team from the internet, Phil Steele's magazine, and Blue Ribbon Magazine.

Secondly, I try to find some great situations through the season for each team where there will likely be mismatches, "look ahead" spots, or revenge games that I can play on. This helps me to assess further the strengths and weaknesses of each team so I can increase my knowledge on them. This also helps me to know what teams are likely to be "fade" teams for the season, "play on" teams for the season, "UNDER" teams for the season, and "OVER" teams for the season.

Thirdly, I look for factors that will help me in my evaluation of the strength and weaknesses of teams. Personally, my handicapping of strength and weakness in a team begins with the offensive and defensive lines. Skill players, no matter how great they are, cannot perform without solid offensive lines. A good case of this was Colt McCoy for Texas. In 2006, Texas fans were touting his greatness due to the fantastic season he had as a freshman. What was not observed was the fact that he was playing behind one of the greatest offensive lines ever to play at Texas. Last season, many of those offensive linemen moved on. McCoy's numbers and production took a nose-dive because his protection was not as great with the weakness of the offensive line (that should improve this season by the way . . . ). Defensively, offenses can establish the run game against a weak defensive line. If a team can establish the run game, it opens the entire offense up to success. So, the lines are important to me whenever I start to assess how strong a team will be. Of course, you have to have good skill players as well (QB, RB, and WR). From there the linebacking corps and defensive backs need to be assessed. A team with a piss-poor defensive backfield will be slaughtered when playing a good passing team (Anyone remember Louisville last season?) Also, special team play has become very important in college football and should be assessed for the strength and weakness of a team. Other factors are coaching and roster depth (you can find this in Phil Steele's magazine).

By the time I come to the games and through the season, I look for situations (revenge, look-ahead, previous game let-downs, rivalry, etc.) to help me decide whether a line is worth playing. I am mostly a "situational" player myself. I love to play against teams in "look ahead" spots where they are going to be playing somebody better than their present opponent and I love to play on teams that lost or didn't cover the week before because they played well below their potential. I also like to fade teams in a game where the week before they played way over their heads.

I look at factors such as power rankings and trends in games to see if anything is way out of whack with a line. However, last season wreaked havoc on power ratings. BUT, last season was an unusual season and I don't think we are likely to see it as a norm.

There is also an element that cannot be explained by numbers, trends or situations. It's called the "gut" factor. Last year in Bowl season, I dropped a lot of my normal handicapping (mainly because it didn't produce well last year) and went mostly to the "gut" factor. I relied more on my knowledge of the strength and weaknesses of teams and played on teams that I felt were more powerful and likely to cover the spread. It ended up being vastly productive! Even more interesting is the fact that I used this same factor whenever I switched over to capping the NBA. The results were to end the season at 60% (would have been even better had I quit before the playoffs started -sigh-). I can't explain to you how to go by your gut instincts. In fact, some people's guts stink! (Pardon the pun). My gut instincts are always based on nearly 10 months of continual research and knowledge on college football.

Lastly, how do we judge whether a line is worth playing or not? Let me start by mentioning this -- Vegas is very good at setting lines on games. I think (and this is what I learned from last season) that we need to stop analyzing lines as much as simply accepting that the line is right. Now, we need to ask ourselves, since the line is right, which team, because of situations, strengths, weaknesses, offensive and defensive schemes, personnel, or otherwise is most likely to play better than the other and cover the line. I know that sounds too simplistic, but I think sometimes we make this more difficult than we need to do. Again, this has to be done by having knowledge on the teams playing and looking for motivating factors that might give one team an edge over others. Let me help you eliminate some games: it's not wise to play on a "road" favorite laying a bunch of points ever, I don't care how good they are and how great the line may look. Always play on teams that have a great chance of winning the game straight up and are catching points at home (you will not likely find this situation often, but occasionally it does occur.) Do not play on teams that are in a "rebuilding" year at the beginning of the season. However, monitor their progress because the losses they had the beginning of the season can easily turn into wins at the end of the season as the team gets more experience and plays better. Vegas usually sets good "dog" lines on these teams because of the way they started their season. Do not play on teams that have sucked all season long but catch what looks like a great line in one of their closing games.Whenever you have games where two teams of equal strengths and situations are playing and the line is close to a "pick 'em", play on the team with the most capable coach. Again, you need to have knowledge of the teams and coaches to implement this. Do not play against teams that are playing their last home game of the season. Also known as "Senior Day." These teams are usually highly motivated and need to be played on rather than against. Fade teams that are playing their first game on the road with a new starting QB.

Very good info, alot of this stuff in the last paragraph is what I use. As I am a situational bettor myself! I did real well in college last yr, but the yr before not so well. I love to play home dogs as well, those are the best, especially when you sprinkle a little on the ML also! Good info and thanks for sharing!!

[Perfect Haze]

You're welcome paggs!

hey you know what? I need your help.. there is something on that oregon-boise game that don't let me feel confident abt which will be my pick on that game.. we have to be very careful.. I mean, the ML it's very juicy but it's not gonna happen.. now I don't know why I feel that if oregon stay close to Boise st that game will definetly go under.. but I picked the over because I do feel that Boise will cover that spread..I know it sounds weird but that's what I feel..

for some reason, this oregon remember me yankees seasons.. the last 3 or 4 years ago

I strongly preffer to go with Mizz +7 against Illinois even with the ML and the over on that same game.. for real. I agree with capper's pick Minn -6 1/2 and I know that BYU is a very strong offensive team but I feel that Oklahoma will blow them.. I also like the FH on Clemson's game and finnaly I think that Texas will also cover Mccoy has blood on his eyes and a lot of experience; how is Texas's offensive line for this year??

What can you do for me bro??

P.D. Please include some comments regarding Nebraska(very important for me), Connecticut and LSU

[pags11]

perfect haze,

as you point out Boise could very well cover this spread, although I stand by my Oregon play...my best advice is to play all weeknight games light...

I wanted to find a reason to take Missouri but couldn't, no opinion on Clemson first half, Minnesota game scares the heck out of me (stay away in my opinion)...BYU could get blown out, but I don't think they will...

Nebraska is laying a pretty steep number to a veteran team that won a bowl, not interested in that one...a lot of people I respect are on Ohio, so I wouldn't recommend a play on Connecticut...I like LSU small at -17 or less...

[Perfect Haze]

Thanks for the advice pags..

well bro.. I have to say that very accurate all your comments.. but I still don't feel comfortable with BYU but here I have it at +22 1/2, It's better than +21 so I'll do one parlay including them but so far this is what I have

Oregon + 5
San Diego st +20
Notre Dame +13 1/2
Louisiana Tech + 13
LSU - 17
VTech + 7
Texas + 41 (please say something about this one, I see them fighting for the national title this year, ULM seems to be an easy Game, how is Texas's offensive line for this year??)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BYU + 22 1/2
Missouri Over whatever
Alabama Under 38 1/2
North Texas + 17
Utha -20 1/2
Minnesota -6 1/2 (I will stay away for this one)
No Illinois + 17
Nebraska -20 1/2


Plese give me some feedback, I'll place my bets in a few hours... Blesss brother!

[jellobiafra]

pags... you got any opinion on UVA? I think the new offense, with Greg Brandon's spread, might surprise some people. They should have two mobile QB's on the field together often with Hall and Sewell. I expect a lot of option and trickery. Jet sweeps to Hall for pass/run options, reverses, bubble screen pass/run options.... that kind of stuff. The defense is always solid under Groh. The special teams should be good with Ron Prince back from KSU. I know that nobody is paying any attention to them either.....

[SoonerBS]

pags... you got any opinion on UVA? I think the new offense, with Greg Brandon's spread, might surprise some people. They should have two mobile QB's on the field together often with Hall and Sewell. I expect a lot of option and trickery. Jet sweeps to Hall for pass/run options, reverses, bubble screen pass/run options.... that kind of stuff. The defense is always solid under Groh. The special teams should be good with Ron Prince back from KSU. I know that nobody is paying any attention to them either.....

I'm hoping for a BIG home dog line whenever TCU comes to play them next week because I think Virginia could be a good bet in that game.

[Flaghunter]

PAGS!! he is good and gives great write-ups. Does his homework. Also like Cougarbait, riggs,gatorfan.

[bobby heenan]

pags...what do u think of illinois this year....was so high on them last year...and they let me down....i hope the public jumps on missou and brings it down to 6....illinois could have won there last year if it werent for maclin in the return game....gotta love juice, benn(maybe the best receiver in the country not named dez bryant)...and jason ford is a pretty tough runner

[bypp]

There's a lot of great cappers around here, but Pags is definitely the best.

[RayzHELL]

I like SoonerBS for his great in-depth No-B***Sh*t write-ups; and KirbyZhang for the same reason! Let's kill the books!

[pags11]

perfect haze,

my advice would be not to play the parlay but to bet all of those teams on the top straight...GL this week...

jellobiafra,

I'm not a huge Al Groh fan, although he does function well in the role of a dog...I am taking a wait and see approach with them this year...

Flaghunter,

thanks very much...BOL to you this week...

bobby heenan,

not a big Ron Zook fan, but there's no disputing his ability to recruit top notch athletes...I am a little concerned about them losing their offensive coordinator this year...taking a wait and see approach with them...GL to you this week...

bypp,

appreciate your kind words my friend...GL to you this week...

[Perfect Haze]

Thanks for the advice pags