2019 College Football Picks

[CJ]

I've had some good success with college football and I'd like to track my picks here this year.

My ATS record since 2013 is 162-123-4, +$6,065. None of this is documented here, so it doesn't count and I'm sure I'll have a terrible season. Making matters worse, I went 3-0 last week, so I'm due for some regression! Follow any of these picks at your own risk (especially the first couple weeks).

Here's who I like this week (all wagers are 2 units this week):

VANDERBILT +7 @ Purdue
COLORADO +4 VS Nebraska
CLEMSON -17 vs Texas A&M

Season: 0-0
Profit: $0

[CJ]

Adding MARYLAND -1.5 vs Syracuse (also 2 units), and possibly one more based on how these go.

[Memento]

I've had some good success with college football and I'd like to track my picks here this year.

My ATS record from 2013 is 162-123-4, +$6,065. None of this is documented here, so it doesn't count and I'm sure I'll have a terrible season. Making matters worse, I went 3-0 last week, so I'm due for some regression! Follow any of these picks at your own risk (especially the first couple weeks).

Here's who I like this week (all wagers are 2 units this week):

VANDERBILT +7 @ Purdue
COLORADO +4 VS Nebraska
CLEMSON -17 vs Texas Tech

Season: 0-0
Profit: $0

A&M

[CJ]

Thanks, corrected.

[A Quant]

You made 289 bets on college football in the 2013 season?

Seriously?

[CJ]

You made 289 bets on college football in the 2013 season?

Seriously?

289 since 2013, so a little under 50 per year.

[A Quant]

289 since 2013, so a little under 50 per year.

My bad, missed the "since" tag.

Good luck!

[CJ]

My bad, missed the "since" tag.

Good luck!

No worries, it originally said "from" which I can see would be misleading. So, I updated it to "since" hopefully I've corrected all typos at this point! Not off to the best start.

[CJ]

Alright, last minute, but cancel Maryland. I've done more reading and am NOT going to lock that in. The only early play for me is:

VANDERBILT +7

I am also going to lock in COLORADO +4 and CLEMSON -16.5, before that jumps back to 17. Each game will be at 2 units still.


Edit: And I immediately regret the first part of this post.

[CJ]

Pretty upset about the results today, what could have been 3-1 or at least 2-1 ends up 1-2.

Dropping Maryland was obviously a mistake. Then the mistakes continued as Vanderbilt got about 57 penalties, gave up two plays of 50+ yards, as well as a 34 yard TD on 3rd and long, and also botched a 4th & 1 deep in Boilermaker territory. I'll chalk that up to being a bad pick of a bad team though and not bad luck.

I don't even have to mention the nonsense that just happened in the Clemson game, the NCAA really should investigate Jimbo Fisher for a Pete Rose type of deal there

Finally, I'll take what I can get with the Buffs. They choked HARD in the first half on a kicking interference call that changed a 3 and out into a Nebraska TD, but can't lose them all I guess.

Season: A disgruntled 1-2
Debt: -$240

[CJ]

Once again 3 sides this week, all 2 units:

TEMPLE +7 vs Maryland
SOUTH ALABAMA +19 vs Memphis
NORTH TEXAS +14 @ California

Season: 1-2
Debt: $-240

These bets are being placed based on public overreaction, particularly in the cases of Maryland and California. Here's a little more on each game:

- The public is unloading on Maryland, based off what they did to Syracuse. I get it, but was Syracuse ever that good in the first place? Temple slowed down a 2-0 Maryland 35-14, last year in week 3, despite the Terps holding a victory over a ranked Texas team. The Owls have had an extra week to game plan for the Maryland offense and I think history can repeat here or at the very least Temple can keep it close.

- Memphis is another team that might be getting a little too much credit, with a victory over Ole Miss. The Tigers are good, but they needed a 21 point 4th quarter to beat South Alabama last season. Conversely the Jaguars showed they could hang with Nebraska, out gaining the Huskers on the day 314-276. Unfortunately, South Alabama had 5 turnovers, two of which were taken back for scores, proving to be the difference week 1. If the Jaguars can clean it up they should hang with in the number or at the very least be live for a back door TD.

- Cal pulled a big upset over Washington after a 2 and a half hour rain delay. Perhaps the delay through off the Huskies, perhaps not, either way the public is high on the Bears this week. North Texas is no slouch though, holding a 9-3 record last season and returning Senior QB, Mason Fine. UNT got popped by SMU last week, so I have to imagine they'll play better, having lost back-to-back regular season contests just once the past 2 seasons. Cal could also be looking past UNT as they play Ole Miss next week, before returning to PAC 12 conference play.

The hope is for a 3-0 week of course, but at least 2-1 to shave the debt down and restore the possibility of a profitable September.

[CJ]

USC +4 vs Utah - 2 units
OLE MiSS -2.5 vs Cal - 1 unit

Season: 3-3
Debt: $-60

Went 2-1 last week, still not good enough. Two games spot-on, while one couldn't have been further from right. Perhaps I forced the South Alabama game, thus I will only be taking two sides this week. Posting a little early as I want to include a Friday game. Here's a little more on each game:

- The public is predictably backing Utah after USC's loss at BYU, the same BYU team the Utes crushed 30-12 week 1. However, Utah got a pair of pick 6's in that game, making the score appear a bit more lopsided than it really was. Conversely, USC gifted BYU 10 points early in their contest last week, due to interceptions. USC also ended the game with a pick in OT. Bad teams are more mistake prone, but I think USC cleans things up a bit at home here and can hang within 4. After all, Utah hasn't registered a victory in Los Angeles since 1916!

- Cal barely beat North Texas last week and now they're ranked for some reason! I don't get it, I also don't get how a team that has played one game east of the Mississippi in the past 5 years is going to be ready to play in a 12pm (EST) kick-off. The only reason this is 1-unit instead of 2-units is because Ole Miss has Alabama next week. I don't think they'll overlook a ranked opponent though.

[BigdaddyQH]

What makes you think that USC will not continue to throw Int's? Utah's defense is far superior to BYU's. USC QB Kedon Slovis has tossed 4 Int's in 2 1/2 games. That is not real good. Utah's QB Tyler Huntley has not thrown an Int this season. Their defense has 4 Int's so far. There is a lot of pressure on Helton. A loss here, followed by an almost certain loss at Washington next week and he is fired. He knows that he must win this game or he loses his job. Helton has not been able to win games like this recently. USC may keep it closer for a half, but they will implode in the 2nd half.

Cal @ Ole Miss is a very good game between two teams wanting to make a statement. I look for a low scoring game between these two teams with solid defenses and questionable offenses. I would not touch this game. Gutsy pick.

[ZIPPER HEAD]

What makes you think that USC will not continue to throw Int's? Utah's defense is far superior to BYU's. USC QB Kedon Slovis has tossed 4 Int's in 2 1/2 games. That is not real good. Utah's QB Tyler Huntley has not thrown an Int this season. Their defense has 4 Int's so far. There is a lot of pressure on Helton. A loss here, followed by an almost certain loss at Washington next week and he is fired. He knows that he must win this game or he loses his job. Helton has not been able to win games like this recently. USC may keep it closer for a half, but they will implode in the 2nd half.


Cal @ Ole Miss is a very good game between two teams wanting to make a statement. I look for a low scoring game between these two teams with solid defenses and questionable offenses. I would not touch this game. Gutsy pick.

You don't bet on any games you air bettor douche nozzle

[CJ]

Utah struggled with Northern Illinois, surrendering 17 points in the first half before waking up. They shut out Idaho State, but I can't imagine being impressed by that. A Friday night game typically favors the home team as well. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think USC getting points at home against an overrated and heavily public backed Utah team is the way to go.

As far as actual turnovers are concerned, I'm sure there'll be a few, but so long as it's not 3+ to 0, I think USC can keep close.

As for Cal/Ole Miss, I'm not sure any bet of 1 unit is a "gutsy pick", but I'll happily fade the Golden Bears again, as there's a misconception that they're a good team simply because they beat Washington in an atypical game. Had the weather not been out of control, I firmly believe Washington wins that game. In fact it was the only game I lost in my pick-15 S/U contest that week!

[CJ]

Wow, Ole Miss clearly scored a touchdown on 3rd down, but the incompetent official ruled the receiver down at the 1 yard line. I don't get it, but it's a loss. Ole Miss would've had to complete a 2 point conversion, and win in OT, so it's not as though that lone play cost me a win, but it definitely doesn't make me happy! Ole Miss botched at the 1 yard line earlier in the 4th as well, fumbling a snap they recovered so far back that they had to settle for a short field goal... which the kicker missed!

Oh well, 1-1 this week, +$90, moving me into the green at 4-4 and +$30 on the season.

[CJ]

A little late, but I'm only picking games that are later today.

Week 5:
SOUTH FLORIDA +7.5 vs Smu
MISSISSIPPI ST +9 @ Auburn
ARIZONA -6.5 vs Ucla

2 units each this week

Analysis Below:
- 4-0 SMU is fresh off a big upset of TCU giving us some line value here. While the Mustangs have impressed, I think there's some room for a letdown game here. South Florida isn't as bad as their 1-2 record. Sure they got annihilated at Wisconsin, but that's happened to everyone who has ventured up to Madison. The Bulls lost 14-10 week 2 to Georgia Tech, but it's worth noting South Florida fumbled on 3 and goal from the 1 yard line in the 4th. A touchdown there likely would have given them the game.

- Everyone is pretty ROCK on Auburn after they dispatched Texas A&M, but the line is dropping despite the bulk of the money coming in on the Tigers. Mississippi State is probably a touch underrated after losing to Kansas State a few weeks ago, so I like the idea of getting the points with them here.

- Another overreaction. What would this spread be if UCLA didn't complete that miracle comeback last week? At least 10, so giving up less than a touchdown with Arizona seems like a good deal to me. The Bruins were crushed by Oklahoma, lost by 9 to SDSU and 10 to Cincy prior to the Washington State game. Whereas Arizona's only loss came at Hawaii week 1; I'd have to imagine the time zone thing is difficult enough without trying to pull that off the first game of the season.

Season: 4-4
Profit: +$90

[CJ]

Well obviously I have no fukking clue what I'm talking about today, so please fade Arizona as heavy as possible. I'm sure UCLA will win s/u. Ugh, just call me Seaweed Jr.

[CJ]

Last week was an unmitigated 0-3 disaster, so hopefully things are on the up and up from here. Just two this week as I hope to get back on track.

Season: 4-7
Debt: -$570

Week 6:

TEXAS TECH +10 vs Oklahoma State - 1 unit - Tech got embarrassed by Oklahoma last week, perhaps they'll put up a little more fight at home against Oklahoma State here. At worse, I think a backdoor cover will be in play.

GEORGIA TECH +10.5 vs North Carolina - 2 units - This is a major overreaction to UNC nearly upsetting Clemson. Sure Ga Tech sucks, but the Tar Heels lost to Appalachian State the week before and haven't won a conference game by double digits since Mitchell Trubisky was on campus, incidentally that game was against Georgia Tech...

Here's hoping to a 2-0 week 6 to erase some of the week 5 damage and rebuild my confidence.

[CJ]

TT was a S/U winner, but sadly GT gave up 21 points in the 4th. Oh well... I'm either dumb or stubborn (or both!) so I'll keep on pressing on.

Season: 5-8
Debt: -$690

Week 7:
PURDUE +3.5 vs Maryland (3 units)
EASTERN MICHIGAN -1.5 vs Ball State (2 units)
SMU -3 vs North Texas (2 units)

Analysis Below:
- Maryland is overrated, has been terrible against most functional teams & the sharps are on Purdue, pray for me.
- Ypsilanti is a massive cesspool and the Eagles rarely get a home game. I'd imagine Ball State will be distracted by Déjà vu and all the homeless people asking them for money, so Eastern should rebound this week.
- There's an insane amount of public money on the Mean Green, am I missing something here? SMU is rated, undefeated and is probably about to cost me 2 more units.

Even if I lose all 3, I'll keep posting for fade material.

[A Quant]

TT was a S/U winner, but sadly GT gave up 21 points in the 4th. Oh well... I'm either dumb or stubborn (or both!) so I'll keep on pressing on.

Season: 5-8
Debt: -$690

Week 7:
PURDUE +3.5 vs Maryland (3 units)
EASTERN MICHIGAN -1.5 vs Ball State (2 units)
SMU -3 vs North Texas (2 units)

Analysis Below:
- Maryland is overrated, has been terrible against most functional teams & the sharps are on Purdue, pray for me.
- Ypsilanti is a massive cesspool and the Eagles rarely get a home game. I'd imagine Ball State will be distracted by Déjà vu and all the homeless people asking them for money, so Eastern should rebound this week.
- There's an insane amount of public money on the Mean Green, am I missing something here? SMU is rated, undefeated and is probably about to cost me 2 more units.

Even if I lose all 3, I'll keep posting for fade material.

Dude.

You are NOT betting on SMU.

SOUTHERN MISS is playing North Texas.

SMU is an entirely different school.

[CJ]

Yes, thankfully I realized that today before locking it in, smh. Embarrassing. Thank you though, removing that from the ticket.

Week 7:
PURDUE +3.5 vs Maryland (3 units)
EASTERN MICHIGAN -1.5 vs Ball State (2 units)

[CJ]

Ah, I posted that at 7:21pm last night, easy explanation: I was already drinking!

[CJ]

Season: 6-9
Debt: -$610


I'm late! But, I'm not giving up.

WEEK 8:
KANSAS +21 @ Texas (2 units)
FLORIDA STATE pk @ Wake Forest (2 units)

[CJ]

Season: 7-10
Debt: -$630

Alright, back to finish what I started with a pair of SEC picks.

WEEK 11:
ALABAMA -6 vs Lsu (3 units)
KENTUCKY -1.5 vs Tennessee (2 units)

[Hman]

GL today CJ

[CJ]

GL today CJ

TY, it's been a bad season :/

My comeuppance for the first post I guess.