Killing These Weekday Games. Thoughts on Temple @ UCF on Thursday

[Fred The Hammer]

Big score on Buffalo/Miami Over last night!!

The rest of these games seem kind of weird? Ball State's QB is out and I'm guessing their defense must have no depth because they were great in the Notre Dame game earlier? Toledo will prob roll but thats a no play for me.

2 games that interest me. UCF and Temple should be interesting but the injury report is everything here! I don't know how they can even put up a line with Milton being questionable? He's their Baker Mayfield/Mcsorley type and they're not the same team without him. Their team total is 35.5 and they're not scoring 36 on Temple without him.

Then you have Temple. They could barely get a first down versus Cincinnati for most of the game. Their RB Armstead is crucial to them and he's also questionable. He's not flashy but goes for 100+ every week and had 171 & 4 TDs vs BC. Their D is also fairly talented!

To me this one requires that you keep your mouse hand strong and quick late Thursday!

It goes as follows:

No Milton & No Armstead = Medium play on UCF Under 35.5 points

Milton plays & No Armstead = Big play on UCF -10.5

No Milton & Armstead plays = Big play on Temple +10.5 or UCF Under 35.5 points.

Both play = Medium play on Temple +10.5.

I think Temple could control the clock somewhat and stay in the game! Their D is decent!

Other lean:

Colorado 4-0 Under on the road. Arizona 4-0 Under at home. So that equals somebody winning 38-31 and going Over 57.5. Colorado can score and they just gave up a ton of points to Oregon State. I think a track meet breaks out here at some point.


Good Luck!!!

[Renegades]

Agreed. Armstead is huge for temple

I like temple and i like the over in arizona as well. Arz is starting to jell on offense. The only issue is how slow colorado plays. They run a lot and stand at the line of scrimmage for 20 secs looking at the sideline for the play. Montez is incredibly inconsistent too

[Renegades]

Shenault is key for colorado as well. He is still questionable to play

[Rambo]

Big score on Buffalo/Miami Over last night!!

The rest of these games seem kind of weird? Ball State's QB is out and I'm guessing their defense must have no depth because they were great in the Notre Dame game earlier? Toledo will prob roll but thats a no play for me.

2 games that interest me. UCF and Temple should be interesting but the injury report is everything here! I don't know how they can even put up a line with Milton being questionable? He's their Baker Mayfield/Mcsorley type and they're not the same team without him. Their team total is 35.5 and they're not scoring 36 on Temple without him.

Then you have Temple. They could barely get a first down versus Cincinnati for most of the game. Their RB Armstead is crucial to them and he's also questionable. He's not flashy but goes for 100+ every week and had 171 & 4 TDs vs BC. Their D is also fairly talented!

To me this one requires that you keep your mouse hand strong and quick late Thursday!

It goes as follows:

No Milton & No Armstead = Medium play on UCF Under 35.5 points

Milton plays & No Armstead = Big play on UCF -10.5

No Milton & Armstead plays = Big play on Temple +10.5 or UCF Under 35.5 points.

Both play = Medium play on Temple +10.5.

I think Temple could control the clock somewhat and stay in the game! Their D is decent!

Other lean:

Colorado 4-0 Under on the road. Arizona 4-0 Under at home. So that equals somebody winning 38-31 and going Over 57.5. Colorado can score and they just gave up a ton of points to Oregon State. I think a track meet breaks out here at some point.


Good Luck!!!

Very insightful and well thought out post. Respect. Refreshing compared to most of the banter here.

[BigdaddyQH]

Fred. First, Colorado has gone over the spread just once, and that was because of the loss to Oregon State, a major meltdown by their defense. They are 4-0 ATS against Arizona, who has gone over the spread just twice, one by 1/2 point. Both of those games were losses. If you really think that this game goes over, why not take Colorado, who has owned Arizona the last 4 years? (4-0 ATS)

As far as Temple vs UCF is concerned, I am not sure I buy your opinion of the two players in question, but you totally miss the important point here. Let us assume that your opinions about these players are correct. What are the consequences to Temple if they lose? The answer is none. Zero. Nothing. Why? Because even if they lose their next three games (which is certainly possible) they still get their Bowl clinching 6th win against a terrible UConn team in the last game of the season. So if I am Geoff Collins, I have to be thinking about either not playing Armstead at all, or playing him and using him as a decoy so he does not do any more damage to his sore ankle. Now let's look at the situation UCF finds themselves in. What are the consequences to them if they lose. The answer is EVERYTHING. They have already clinched a Bowl bid. What they are playing for is another chance to play in a New Years Day game, and another chance to claim a phony National Championship of they win out. A loss ends all of that. So you can wager the mortgage that Milton will start this game. Now what can kill you, and often kills bettors like you is not knowing just how healthy these guys really are. There is a strong possibility that both start, and either one or both simply cannot continue on. What do you do then? Lose your wager if you are on the wrong player. The problem is that you will not know who is healthy and who is just a decoy. You also may not know who is even going to play until just before game time, when it will be too late for you to wager. Pass on both of these games.

[Husker36]

I just hope UCF goes undefeated...... cuz I will bet everything against them in whatever bowl game they go to.

[Fred The Hammer]

Fred. First, Colorado has gone over the spread just once, and that was because of the loss to Oregon State, a major meltdown by their defense. They are 4-0 ATS against Arizona, who has gone over the spread just twice, one by 1/2 point. Both of those games were losses. If you really think that this game goes over, why not take Colorado, who has owned Arizona the last 4 years? (4-0 ATS)

As far as Temple vs UCF is concerned, I am not sure I buy your opinion of the two players in question, but you totally miss the important point here. Let us assume that your opinions about these players are correct. What are the consequences to Temple if they lose? The answer is none. Zero. Nothing. Why? Because even if they lose their next three games (which is certainly possible) they still get their Bowl clinching 6th win against a terrible UConn team in the last game of the season. So if I am Geoff Collins, I have to be thinking about either not playing Armstead at all, or playing him and using him as a decoy so he does not do any more damage to his sore ankle. Now let's look at the situation UCF finds themselves in. What are the consequences to them if they lose. The answer is EVERYTHING. They have already clinched a Bowl bid. What they are playing for is another chance to play in a New Years Day game, and another chance to claim a phony National Championship of they win out. A loss ends all of that. So you can wager the mortgage that Milton will start this game. Now what can kill you, and often kills bettors like you is not knowing just how healthy these guys really are. There is a strong possibility that both start, and either one or both simply cannot continue on. What do you do then? Lose your wager if you are on the wrong player. The problem is that you will not know who is healthy and who is just a decoy. You also may not know who is even going to play until just before game time, when it will be too late for you to wager. Pass on both of these games.

I hit the Over by 40+ points yesterday. Its not my first rodeo. Temple wants this game. For recruiting purposes how do you get attention at a place like Temple? You beat an undefeated & ranked team! They're not taking this game off, but you are right about the game time stuff. Its hard to bet game time decisions and the lines may crash one way or the other. One of the reasons I was on the Colts so hard last Sunday was because Lynch got put on IR. He's the kind of guy that can fire up 50 guys in a hurry! The Colts defense played like shit and if Lynch was there then they probably lose. Armstead is somewhat that kind of a player for Temple. If he plays then I'm playing UCF Under 35.5 for $75 or something. Not big.

You might be right on Arizona/Colorado. I think I'll wait and see how Thursday turns out.

[Fred The Hammer]

Very insightful and well thought out post. Respect. Refreshing compared to most of the banter here.

Thank you sir. Having a pretty run with weekday games and 50/50 on Saturday. Probably just random results

[Renegades]

Somebody pounded arizona under. Its down to 56.5

[Renegades]

I saw 59.5 last night

[Fred The Hammer]

Shenault is key for colorado as well. He is still questionable to play

Really looking at Over 57 (-108). If Shenault is good to go then its a big play for me! Weird thing is Col is 0-4 Over on the road (61 @ Nebraska though) and Ariz is 0-4 Over at home. The 2 teams though have averaged 73.6 points per game since 2011. Thats a ton!! I think the Buffaloes defense doesn't have alot of depth and teams are starting to light them up. I lean Ariz but like the Over more.

Athlon has Arizona 40-35
CFN has Arizona 31-27
Oddshark Arizona 32-31

We still have 3 hours to see what happens with Shenault. If the Over bettors can jump on it faster then the books?

[Renegades]

Colorado is missing a few starters on defense. I dont think Shenault is playing. If he is out, I dont know if I can trust col passing game. Very little production from the other guys. Im torn on this total

[Fred The Hammer]

Colorado is missing a few starters on defense. I dont think Shenault is playing. If he is out, I dont know if I can trust col passing game. Very little production from the other guys. Im torn on this total

Its a tough one without Shenault. Arizona could be a little flat like Purdue was after being Ohio State. Otherwise I don't know why they're only -3? I do like Montez alot. He just seems like a winner.....14 tds/4 picks with 4 rushing TDs.

I'm really starting to think my big play for college football this weekend is 12pm tomorrow:

Clemson Over 49.5 points. I know thats a shitload of points but Lville just gave up 56 to Wake by the 3Q. Clemson will probably have 35 by half and play their starters almost to the end of the 3Q. Lville can't protect their QB. Probably a pick-6 or a blocked punt as well. They do have enough offense to get 14 or 17 which should keep Clemson's starters in the game til the 4Q. Lville 56 last week and 66 to G Tech a few games ago. I think they quit on Petrino.