Coaches Who SHOULD Be On The Hot Seat For The Rest Of The Season

Ralphie Halves · 10-29-18, 01:19 AM

Ash I agree, Rutgers was supposed to make a bowl run this year.

Edsall, eh. UCONN wasn't supposed to be good. Edsall made them relevant years ago, they'll give him a lot of rope.

I'll add....

Mike Sanford at Western Kentucky could be fired before the season ends. What a difference between his WKU teams and Jeff Brohm's WKU teams. Damage control might be needed sooner than later.

And somebody please fire Larry Fedora at UNC already. He's literally given you every reason to.

Matt Luke might be gone. They like him, but realize he's probably not the future, and Ole Miss just keeps getting embarrassed every week to where it's hard to ignore now.

Mark Whipple at UMASS is probably done too. This was the year they were gonna make a push, and it didn't happen. Horrible job though, not sure who would even want it.

Mike Bobo should be gone at Colorado St. They underperformed last year and fell apart this year. And Bobo isn't the most likable guy.

Coaches who you may be surprised will NOT get fired this year...

Lovie Smith -- Illinois at least showing signs of life. Third year will tell the real story here.

Brad Lambert - Charlotte is actually competitive this year! Not always, but enough to keep the faith.

Clay Helton - I think the brass will realize he started a bunch of underclassmen at skill positions and give him one more pass.

There's really no "belle of the ball" this year as far as future HCs that everyone wants. This may cause programs to hang onto lame duck coaches one more year.

I don't think there will be as much turnover this year as there was in years past.

Ralphie Halves · 10-29-18, 01:21 AM

And Mike Jinks already got fired.

gojetsgomoxies · 10-29-18, 07:16 PM

Ralphie, how's your TAILing good coaches, fading the opposite working this year? serious question as i have no idea.... one thing that blows me away is how quickly the lines adjust.

FADING disappointing first year coaches (i.e. with perfect foresight) hasn't been nearly as lucrative as i would have thought.

i don't have too much insight on most of the coaches mentioned...... USC seems to be back to the 20 years previous to pete carroll. great recruits, send lots of guys to the NFL but seem perpetually disappointing (i realize they had some good moments with darnold at QB.... but really they should throttle most of the PAC-12 simply given geography and UCLA's lack of football culture)..

rutgers and illinois are interesting. illini looked to be turning the corner but have had minor regression.. i'd say still give Ash more time at Rutgers (as constant treadmill never seems to work for teams like rutgers. but it is "the University of New Jersey" for gosh sakes. that state sends lots of players to the NFL

BigdaddyQH · 10-29-18, 07:43 PM

Clay Helton is acting more and more like a HC that KNOWS he must win his final 3 conference games. They are against Oregon State, Cal, and Uceless. He fired his O-line coach today and took play calling duties away from OC Tee Martin. This comes one day after he said that he would make no changes until after the season. Someone jumped his ass. Remember, A.D. Lynn Swan did NOT hire him and Swan is used to winning championships. Being a USC Alum, I can tell you that we all like Helton, but we all know that he just does not have what it takes to get over the hump.

Ralphie Halves · 10-29-18, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

Ralphie, how's your TAILing good coaches, fading the opposite working this year? serious question as i have no idea.... one thing that blows me away is how quickly the lines adjust.

It's been really hard because so many coaches are in their 1st and 2nd years, and they don't have their players yet. The angle works fine, I just can't use it much this year.

That all being said, I've used it tailing Mendenhall and Matt Campbell this year with great success. Fading Sumlin has backfired. Fading Muschamp has been good.

BigdaddyQH · 10-29-18, 08:19 PM

Sumlin is 4-4 ATS, so that is basically a wash so far. Arizona is -4 against a Colorado team that is really pissed off and now in danger of not even going to a bowl game. Talk about weekday games to run away from.

gojetsgomoxies · 10-29-18, 09:21 PM

Ralphie, good stuff. thx

the Sumlin thing is funny. they've been horrid but maybe not every moment and also the market adjusted so fast.

are first year coaches better than before? or has betting market caught on?... i have first year coaches at approx. 50% ATS. 2 great ones (TAM and florida) and a bunch of mediocre to fairly bad ones (i.e. the ATS records are skewed positive. a few big positives cancelling out more losers)

Ralphie Halves · 10-29-18, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

Ralphie, good stuff. thx

the Sumlin thing is funny. they've been horrid but maybe not every moment and also the market adjusted so fast.

are first year coaches better than before? or has betting market caught on?... i have first year coaches at approx. 50% ATS. 2 great ones (TAM and florida) and a bunch of mediocre to fairly bad ones (i.e. the ATS records are skewed positive. a few big positives cancelling out more losers)

First year guys are tough. You try to find coaches that absolutely do not have the players they need to run their offenses yet (Sumlin, Chip Kelly) to fade early in the season, or coaches that that are putting in a way better scheme than was there before (Mullen, Brohm last year) to tail early.

Taggart was just weird, he had absolutely destroyed it everywhere he went, no matter what the previous system was when he got there. Now the offense can't tie its own shoes. Makes no sense.

Second half of the season is different when trying to find value. It's better to start backing guys you know can coach their asses off but just had a bad start (VTech, Louisville, Navy, KState, Nebraska).

gojetsgomoxies · 10-29-18, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

Second half of the season is different when trying to find value. It's better to start backing guys you know can coach their asses off but just had a bad start (VTech, Louisville, Navy, KState, Nebraska).

i've been giving alot of thought recently to the type of thinking you describe......... also, teams that started a very young lineup should start to come on later in the season.............

i also have been looking at talent rankings and teams that could come on.... it is/was a real "hold your nose" pick but SJSU has excellent talent relative to most MWC teams. i like looking at stuff like that.

speaking of coaches, Tedford has been absolute gold in Fresno in this 2nd season. reminds me of Schiano at Rutgers (although Fresno had semi-recent success when Tedford took over)... i need to look into it further but i think i would just about take any coach or OC/DC who has canadian football league experience and coaches at lesser school. so much of canadian football is applicable to american coaches trying to beat teams with far superior talent (basically use speed to beat size)...

Ralphie Halves · 10-30-18, 01:42 PM

That's a real interesting angle with the CFL coaches. Stay on it and let us know what you find.

Tedford was a nightmare at Cal though. I refused to bet Cal for years because he was ridiculously inconsistent.

BigdaddyQH · 10-30-18, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

That's a real interesting angle with the CFL coaches. Stay on it and let us know what you find.

Tedford was a nightmare at Cal though. I refused to bet Cal for years because he was ridiculously inconsistent.

The difference between a school playing in a Power 5 conference and one playing in a Group of 5 conference? Also consider this. Fresno State has been trying to crash the Pac 10-12 for years now. In the past 5 seasons they have played USC, Utah x2, Nebraska X2. Mississippi, Alabama, Washington Minnesota and UCLA. 8 of those 10 games have been on the road. Their only win came against UCLA this season. So you have a HC with Power 5 HC experience, coaching at a Group of 5 school that is used to playing Power 5 opposition.

209 Life · 10-30-18, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The difference between a school playing in a Power 5 conference and one playing in a Group of 5 conference? Also consider this. Fresno State has been trying to crash the Pac 10-12 for years now. In the past 5 seasons they have played USC, Utah x2, Nebraska X2. Mississippi, Alabama, Washington Minnesota and UCLA. 8 of those 10 games have been on the road. Their only win came against UCLA this season. So you have a HC with Power 5 HC experience, coaching at a Group of 5 school that is used to playing Power 5 opposition.

Get Fresno out your mouth. you prick. Best football team in the state of California currently. Look at the rankings chump

BigdaddyQH · 10-30-18, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by 209 Life

Get Fresno out your mouth. you prick. Best football team in the state of California currently. Look at the rankings chump

2nd rate school. That is why they will NEVER be allowed to join the Pac 12. Their stadium certainly does not help their cause. Also a terible Bowl record. I mean you have to work to get your tails kicked by Rice. Stick to the MWC. You will not go anywhere's else. I seem to remember a year when Fresno State was 12-1 and played a 9-4 USC team. USC destroyed Fresno State 45-20 and the game was not that close. If Fresno State gets back to the Las Vegas Bowl, some Pac 12 team will beat it out of them again. Typical Northern California arsehole.

209 Life · 10-30-18, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

2nd rate school. That is why they will NEVER be allowed to join the Pac 12. Their stadium certainly does not help their cause. Also a terible Bowl record. I mean you have to work to get your tails kicked by Rice. Stick to the MWC. You will not go anywhere's else. I seem to remember a year when Fresno State was 12-1 and played a 9-4 USC team. USC destroyed Fresno State 45-20 and the game was not that close. If Fresno State gets back to the Las Vegas Bowl, some Pac 12 team will beat it out of them again. Typical Northern California arsehole.

Fresno #23 in playoff rankings. USC Not ranked

gojetsgomoxies · 10-30-18, 11:25 PM

Ralphie, wasn't Cal 1 play away from being ranked #1 (at one point in season) when Tedford was there?... i would say Cal before and after Tedford looks good on him. a bit of a similar argument for Rutgers and Schiano (it obviously went off-track there eventually too)

Ralphie Halves · 10-31-18, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

Ralphie, wasn't Cal 1 play away from being ranked #1 (at one point in season) when Tedford was there?... i would say Cal before and after Tedford looks good on him. a bit of a similar argument for Rutgers and Schiano (it obviously went off-track there eventually too)

I don't remember that, but all I do remember was his teams being horribly inconsistent. No matter which side you bet, you'd lose. Was better just to avoid.

And some of their defenses were laughable, even when they had Clancy Perdergast at DC, they still managed to suck ass. Could never figure it out.