anyone else gone completely stone cold this year?

A Quant · 10-02-18, 09:53 PM

I am getting my ass kicked. But if you have played this game long enough, you know these cycles run. The important part is not to make any drastic changes, NEVER chase, just keep grinding away.

It will turn.

BigdaddyQH · 10-03-18, 01:58 PM

I disagree to a point. I have been at this for a lot longer than you guys have, and I have had one losing season. That is it. It is true that these things run in cycles to an extent, but if a losing season is part of your cycle, you are doing a lot of things wrong. The big difference between you guys and myself is attitude. You guys are wondering why you are having such a big losing season. I am wondering how I can improve on my winning season (11-8 so far). I never worry about a losing season because my wagering skills are solid and I can depend on them without hesitation. Once I make a wager and the game is played, that is it. Win or lose, the game is over and forgotten. I do not sit around like the many losers in here crying about a loss because of a bad call, an injury, a tipped pass, or whatever. The reason why you lose a game is very simple. You have picked the wrong team. Now move on with it. Before you get too down on yourself, try a positive attitude. It is not IF my teams wins, but by how many points are they going to win by. Also remember that sometimes the best wager is the one that you do NOT make.

A Quant · 10-03-18, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I disagree to a point. I have been at this for a lot longer than you guys have, and I have had one losing season. That is it. It is true that these things run in cycles to an extent, but if a losing season is part of your cycle, you are doing a lot of things wrong. The big difference between you guys and myself is attitude. You guys are wondering why you are having such a big losing season. I am wondering how I can improve on my winning season (11-8 so far). I never worry about a losing season because my wagering skills are solid and I can depend on them without hesitation. Once I make a wager and the game is played, that is it. Win or lose, the game is over and forgotten. I do not sit around like the many losers in here crying about a loss because of a bad call, an injury, a tipped pass, or whatever. The reason why you lose a game is very simple. You have picked the wrong team. Now move on with it. Before you get too down on yourself, try a positive attitude. It is not IF my teams wins, but by how many points are they going to win by. Also remember that sometimes the best wager is the one that you do NOT make.

For a guy who claims to win a lot, you sure do post angry. You are always pissed off and complaining about the way guys post here, and what they say.

Variance and probability drive this--- not experience. Yes, experience is helpful when it comes to money management, and knowing when to bet MLs, never chase, and avoiding parlays etc. I don't care how "good" of a bettor you think you are, variance will bite you in the ass, and you'll lose games.

gojetsgomoxies · 10-03-18, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I disagree to a point. I have been at this for a lot longer than you guys have, and I have had one losing season. That is it. It is true that these things run in cycles to an extent, but if a losing season is part of your cycle, you are doing a lot of things wrong. The big difference between you guys and myself is attitude. You guys are wondering why you are having such a big losing season. I am wondering how I can improve on my winning season (11-8 so far). I never worry about a losing season because my wagering skills are solid and I can depend on them without hesitation. Once I make a wager and the game is played, that is it. Win or lose, the game is over and forgotten. I do not sit around like the many losers in here crying about a loss because of a bad call, an injury, a tipped pass, or whatever. The reason why you lose a game is very simple. You have picked the wrong team. Now move on with it. Before you get too down on yourself, try a positive attitude. It is not IF my teams wins, but by how many points are they going to win by. Also remember that sometimes the best wager is the one that you do NOT make.

i like your input on here for sure........... but the times you've posted picks, i think you've been a loser

could you please post picks the next few weekends to show us how it's done?.... and please, NO Michigan -800 vs. Indiana ML. point spreads plz

gojetsgomoxies · 10-03-18, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by A Quant

For a guy who claims to win a lot, you sure do post angry. You are always pissed off and complaining about the way guys post here, and what they say.

very well said........ for that poster to suggest positivity is quite something...

and BigDaddy, i have never once whined or complained about a bad beat or an official costing me money. in fact, i am very quick to say "i won that bet, but i didn't deserve it".

A Quant · 10-03-18, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i like your input on here for sure........... but the times you've posted picks, i think you've been a loser

could you please post picks the next few weekends to show us how it's done?.... and please, NO Michigan -800 vs. Indiana ML. point spreads plz

That's just it. It's one thing to claim you are a winning gambler, he should prove it.

He should create a thread and try and help guys. Don't post "I am 11-8" with no proof whatsoever.

JayDr3am · 10-03-18, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i like your input on here for sure........... but the times you've posted picks, i think you've been a loser

could you please post picks the next few weekends to show us how it's done?.... and please, NO Michigan -800 vs. Indiana ML. point spreads plz

lmao youve been here long enough then

maggiethebestdog · 10-03-18, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I disagree to a point. I have been at this for a lot longer than you guys have, and I have had one losing season. That is it. It is true that these things run in cycles to an extent, but if a losing season is part of your cycle, you are doing a lot of things wrong. The big difference between you guys and myself is attitude. You guys are wondering why you are having such a big losing season. I am wondering how I can improve on my winning season (11-8 so far). I never worry about a losing season because my wagering skills are solid and I can depend on them without hesitation. Once I make a wager and the game is played, that is it. Win or lose, the game is over and forgotten. I do not sit around like the many losers in here crying about a loss because of a bad call, an injury, a tipped pass, or whatever. The reason why you lose a game is very simple. You have picked the wrong team. Now move on with it. Before you get too down on yourself, try a positive attitude. It is not IF my teams wins, but by how many points are they going to win by. Also remember that sometimes the best wager is the one that you do NOT make.

We could all learn a lesson about a positive attitude from Big Daddy
He is positively the biggest lying sack of crap loser psycho wanna be tough guy on the internet

gojetsgomoxies · 10-03-18, 05:12 PM

one thing i will say is whether or not i was a winner or a major winner (for extended period of time), things were much easier years ago....

i think it relates to forums like this and things like sports databases (and then contributors to covers.com do articles based on analytical engines)

a few examples,

1) seems like the whole world is on improving vs. worsening teams as judged in offseason (returning starters, QB being key). i feel like 10 years ago i was somewhat unique in using that

2) same thing for improved and deteriorating teams. you'd think when EM improved with their stud QB that you could play that for awhile but my general recollections is that lines adjust fast. see hawaii this season.. i could be wrong about EM. but look at how long you had to play schiano at rutgers.... i'm thinking maybe deteriorating teams still have some value. see FSU at Cuse or Oregon vs. Washington last few seasons. perhaps too much weight on the past there.

3) i think i need to understand line movements better because i do think they are fairly predictable. certainly not big enough to win on their own but i'd say you can negate at least half the juice by being good at line movements

A Quant · 10-03-18, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

lmao youve been here long enough then

Someone needs to tell me the joke. Are you saying this guy actually lists a -850 favorite as a serious bet and then claims a winner?

Do I have that right?

maggiethebestdog · 10-03-18, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by A Quant

Someone needs to tell me the joke. Are you saying this guy actually lists a -850 favorite as a serious bet and then claims a winner?

Do I have that right?

Actually, he bragged about his past success doing that with no proof, then when he actually posted his -900 plays he got buried and quit
Then a year later he made fun of people that play big ML favs

Yea, that guy

A Quant · 10-03-18, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by maggiethebestdog

Actually, he bragged about his past success doing that with no proof, then when he actually posted his -900 plays he got buried and quit
Then a year later he made fun of people that play big ML favs

Yea, that guy

I noticed he doesn't post any of his plays but he sure does yap a lot. And any guy posting a -900 bet as an actual selection needs to be banned just for being a moron.

dmncnlou · 10-03-18, 06:28 PM

I will say this, just because there is a line on a game doesn't mean you have to bet it. Bet on games that matter; not these meaningless games. Bet conference championship ganes, playoff games, and title games.

Shutup · 10-03-18, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by A Quant

For a guy who claims to win a lot, you sure do post angry. You are always pissed off and complaining about the way guys post here, and what they say.

Variance and probability drive this--- not experience. Yes, experience is helpful when it comes to money management, and knowing when to bet MLs, never chase, and avoiding parlays etc. I don't care how "good" of a bettor you think you are, variance will bite you in the ass, and you'll lose games.

Every post this guy makes he talks down to people. You would think he is 20-2 or something. 11-8 is fine and all. Don't know how many units he has won, regardless, plenty of people are doing better than him. He needs to stfu.

A Quant · 10-03-18, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by Shutup

Every post this guy makes he talks down to people. You would think he is 20-2 or something. 11-8 is fine and all. Don't know how many units he has won, regardless, plenty of people are doing better than him. He needs to stfu.

I was thinking the same. I've yet to see him wish a fellow gambler even some small luck.

gojetsgomoxies · 10-03-18, 07:57 PM

there were probably other instances but the one i remember is when BigDaddy said he would post picks after people bugged him for just criticizing others..

and then his first pick was TCU ML (-800?? might have been a little lower) at minnesota.. and then he did get buried on those types of ML picks and i think his quoted record has some losing games removed (which is a huge deal no matter what but esp. when you pick giant ML faves).

i think TCU barely beat minnesota but could be wrong.

BigDaddy makes very good insights and is very knowledgable BTW

navyblue81 · 10-03-18, 08:07 PM

Don’t usually post my picks on here, just my opinions on spreads inside of the topic. But having my best year yet betting. The difference is I’m only betting 4-5 games/week. When I was betting 10+, I was losing a lot. Now I’ll only focus on a few, and one has been UCF every week and that’s been a winner every time. Duke won me a lot of $$$ too but thankfully stayed away from them vs VT. And then put my biggest bet ever on Notre Dame last weekend becaue I thought that was the easiest bet in history. So I’ve had a good year, but I’ve also had my fair share of bad ones, so I know the feeling.

JayDr3am · 10-03-18, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by A Quant

Someone needs to tell me the joke. Are you saying this guy actually lists a -850 favorite as a serious bet and then claims a winner?

Do I have that right?

cant remember exactly what season it was but he was 8-0 on the season with ML's that were -750 and higher then lost 2 BIG ones in a row and it was an instant burial. if i can remember it was a baylor game

JayDr3am · 10-03-18, 08:39 PM

ive said this for years, you have to sift through QH's bullshit. cause every now and again there is a gem hanging around in there somewhere, just have to paddle through the shit water he spews out of his ass 80% of the time

gojetsgomoxies · 10-08-18, 02:50 PM

thx for all the responses

and i won big last weekend... i went back to something very basic. i basically wrote out every FBS match up and then blindly predicted the spread. i was reasonably close on the big 5 and much of the smaller conferences. way off on some MAC and SBC games (but i didn't print out power ratings to look over. i figured that's not blindly predicting the spreads)..

and i'm under no illusion that my this basic spread exercise was why i was a winner. much more likely just variance for the big swings.

thanks again for the support.......... it was so frustrating. it was like everything i thought was wrong. i'd get buried on early games. then i'd say "hey, got some middle afternoon - west coast- games starting...... then i'd get slaughtered on those. rinse/repeat for all 4 time slots. perhaps i bet too many games but i did when i was winner (arguably significant winner for extended periods of time)