I have a trend for the forum for the upcoming season. Please Read...

A Quant · 08-06-18, 08:34 AM

Good luck on the angle, good on you for sharing.

Some thoughts...

You identified 14 such games, If the win rate projects out for the games you identified, you should "in theory" win 9 games.

However, looking at your games--- it basically comes down to the performance of just a few teams-- Miami Ohio, Pitt, Maryland, UNLV, Air Force. If 2 of those teams underperform, it could crash your system/trend.

More, you mention data going back 11 years. Can you post the year to year performance of this?

I'd like to see the variance, is it 6 years of being a .500% prop mixed with 4 years of performing really well? Is it consistently .67% from year to year?

Thanks again, good sharing.

A Quant · 08-06-18, 09:55 AM

So, just for the exercise of it, I was thinking/trying to see if you can identify a correlation of this system, and bounce it to total win projections.

Pitt's WT is 5.5. I am trying to correlate that, but to be honest- just a brief back test and I would be concerned about that North Carolina game. Pitt would be playing their first road game of the 2018 season against UNC, following 2 games of Penn State and having to play a triple option team in GT.

The other Pitt game you listed is against Syracuse. Which Vegas and most people have given Syracuse a higher WT (6 wins) than Pitt has- translation? That will be a coin flip game.

This could be a decent discussion thread.

Again, thanks for posting.

deplorable · 08-06-18, 10:19 AM

Quant here are the numbers and i have it in my notes as betting $110 to win $100 on each of these games since 07

07 4-3 SU and ATS +$70
08 7-5 SU and ATS +$150
09 6-3 SU and ATS +$270
10 13-1 SU 9-5 ATS +$350
11 6-4 SU 8-2 ATS +$580
12 10-4 SU and ATS +$560
13 3-2 SU and ATS +$80
14 0-1 SU And ATS -$110
15 1-3 SU and ATS -$230
16 8-4 SU 9-3 ATS +$570
17 8-2 SU 6-2-2 ATS +$380

You mentioned the Pitt-GT game and i wanted to clarify this: That game and games liek it over the years i don't count in the trend because GT last year finished 5-6 because their UCF game never got made up. I assume GT would've lost to UCF but we'll never know

I also don't count in the year by year the 5-7 teams who made bowls because the trend is about missing a bowl. North Texas lost to UTEP a few years ago but played in a bowl. NT can't be mad about UTEP costing them a bowl if...they got to play in a bowl

Hope this helped

A Quant · 08-06-18, 11:31 AM

Dep-- do you bet these games cold, or do you situational bet them? By that I mean, do you use these games as a starting point, and then handicap further?

Or just cold bet them?

Listen, what works for you, works for you. I am not smart enough to tell anyone how or why they should ever make a bet.

Obviously I can't argue with your results. You won. Great job.

Last year there were 10 games from 522 (1.92%) that met this criteria, and statistically speaking, I am not sure if this is an outlier or there is some meat to it.

I will definitely pay attention to it. Again, good job at posting this.

gojetsgomoxies · 08-06-18, 12:40 PM

OP, thank you. i love stuff like this........ how much of this (backtesting) were you able to automate?

i see two losing recent years but i will note that both years were very small number of games........ when there were alot of games you won ATS

how would 5-7 missed-bowl teams have done ATS in-conference all games?

gojetsgomoxies · 08-06-18, 12:42 PM

do you know what the average spread was on the games?

deplorable · 08-07-18, 07:07 AM

Quant I just bet them regardless of line and have done really well with it. Some years i would've been better off just betting the revenge games.

Mike2332 · 08-12-18, 04:34 PM

Hey deplorable,

Did you used to post on Covers?

deplorable · 08-13-18, 06:51 AM

Yes sir I did

Mike2332 · 08-13-18, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by deplorable

Yes sir I did

I loved your political content and its BS you got banned

Good luck this year sir

Noles1992 · 08-19-18, 06:58 PM

Good luck like the angle!

Tanko · 08-19-18, 08:33 PM

Deplorables...
Nice analysis. With the back data, there is obviously some support. As pointed out by Gojets, the losing years were small data sets. Every year with 5 or more plays proved profitable and the more games in the system, the higher the win %. With 14 listed for 2018, it looks very promising.
Good Luck. Will be following closely.
Best regards

A Quant · 10-12-18, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by deplorable

Look guys when it comes to trends in betting you can find 5 trends for team A and 5 trends for Team B. But this trend was something i researched back in 2011. One night i was up late and i was thinking about teams who finished 5-7 which is 1 game shy of a bowl. I researched how those 5-7 teams did who lost to below 500 teams when they faced off again the next season with that 5-7 team seeking revenge. Since 2007 those 5-7 teams are 66-32 SU and 63-33-2 ATS. Now you say "Deplorable thats great but what about the 2018 season? Are there any such games?" There are. I will post them here and will capatalize the team seeking revenge:

Sep 8th MIAMI OHIO vs Cincy (LOSS)

Sep 22nd PITT vs North Carolina (LOSS)
MINNESOTA vs Maryland (LOSS)
MIAMI OHIO vs Bowling Green (WIN)

Oct 6th PITT VS Syracuse (WIN)
TULANE vs Cincy (LOSS)

Oct 13th VANDY vs Florida
MIAMI OHIO vs Kent State

Oct 19th UNLV vs Air Force

Nov 10th INDIANA vs Maryland
AIR FORCE vs New Mexico

Nov 24th UNLV vs Nevada
CALIFORNIA vs Colorado
LOUISIANA vs ulm

Best of luck this season guys. Your thoughts are welcome

Found this thread interesting when it was posted.

Have been following it.

At half-way point-- it is 2-4.
Good luck, hope it turns for you.

2daBank · 10-12-18, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by A Quant

Found this thread interesting when it was posted.

Have been following it.

At half-way point-- it is 2-4.
Good luck, hope it turns for you.

Just seeing it myself, unfortunate it hasn’t worked out thus far this season but agree it incredibly interesting and well thought out which very rare around here!! Lol.

Good stuff op, I truly hope the pit win was a sign of things starting to go in your favor!! That was a game where majority were slobbering over getting cuse at a perceived “short” llne!!

I think vandy has the potential to get you a W, I prefer under but could see that being closer than many expect in a game that I think similar to the cuse/pit gm perception wise..really don’t follow the mac to have any opinion on other. Gl

deplorable · 11-25-18, 04:18 PM

On the season the plays went 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS for a profit of $140}Had you bet $110 to win $100 on every revenge play

Since 2007 teams in this role seeking revenge are:

75-37 SU {67%}

71-39-2 ATS {63.4%}

Since 2007 A $110 to win $100 bettor on each of these games would be up $2,810.

For 2019 we have as of now 11 such revenge games on the docket

BOL the rest of the season guys. I hope you got some winners out of this

gojetsgomoxies · 11-25-18, 04:35 PM

congrats. so you went 6-2 ATS after the mid-season update.

can you post the entire game record? i like to look for patterns (although i'm pretty sure that qualifies as data mining)

gojetsgomoxies · 11-25-18, 04:36 PM

did some "back of envelope" math and that's a 20%+ ROI.. very nice