2009 SEC East Preview and Play-On Games

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  • SoonerBS
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-26-08
    • 518

    #1
    2009 SEC East Preview and Play-On Games
    Some might say, "Hey, wait a minute, you're a Big 12 guy, aren't you?" I do have a better understanding of Big 12 football living here in Sooner country, but I have always been a lover and follower of the game across the entire nation. Every year, I study info on all the teams and throughout the season I make bets on all the teams. These previews help me to understand teams better by delving into the personnel, "X's and O's," and schedules of the teams. So, even though my forte is the Big 12, I am a handicapper of all the teams in every conference (I even do some FCS handicapping where they play FBS teams). That is why you will see me write up previews on other conferences as well.

    Georgia

    OK, so call me contrary, but I am calling for Florida not to make it to the NC this year. In fact, I don't think they will even win the SEC East. I am giving that honor to Georgia this year. Gone from Georgia are the prima donnas of Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi and coming in are some blue collar workers who are going to be more interested in just winning ball games instead of gaining impressive stats. Georgia has one of the toughest out of conference schedules in the nation going to Oklahoma State, at home with Arizona State, at home with Tennessee Tech and going to Georgia Tech. If they come out of their schedule with only one loss, it will be hard to deny them the opportunity to play for the NC Championship this year (providing they win the SEC Championship and providing that one loss is not to an undefeated Florida team.)

    LET ME SAY THIS AT THE OUTSET, WHETHER GEORGIA WINS THE SEC EAST OR NOT, I BELIEVE THEY WILL BE MONEY ALL SEASON LONG AND WILL BE A GOOD PLAY-ON TEAM ALL SEASON! This team this season reminds me a bit of my 2000 Oklahoma Sooners. There is talent all around the team everywhere because they are Georgia and Georgia recruits well, but there are no standouts like there were the last two seasons. There is no publications giving them the National Title before the season starts like they did the last two seasons. This team comes in under the radar and everyone is all but handing the National Title over to their opponent, Florida. In the past, this is whenever Richt has been the toughest. He doesn't present to us a future NFL #1 draft pick at QB, just a good solid QB who has some experience, talent and his team's respect. No standout RB, just 3 RBs on the roster who were top 10 recruits in the nation out of high school. They bring in a solid receiving corps that will not be a letdown from last season at all and what might be the best offensive line in the country! Defensively they bring back 8 starters off last year's team and 67% of the defensive production. Their defense will be solid and steady at every position -- again, nothing flashy, just a solid TEAM that will get the job done.

    The only thing that stands in Georgia's way of an SEC championship this season is their schedule. If they overcome that, they will gain an NC championship as well.


    Play-On Games:

    As was already stated above, I like Georgia in every game this season. They went 4-7-1 ATS last season, and because of that, and because they have lost the Three Amigos, we should see more favorable lines for them as they come in under the radar. My plans are to play on them in every game this year.
  • SoonerBS
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-26-08
    • 518

    #2
    Florida

    I am not going to spend a great deal of space telling you what you already know about this team. As you look at Florida this year, you see a similar team to last season in this one respect -- there are no weak spots. If anything, the weak spot will be the receiving corps and special teams with the vacancy that Percy Harvin left. Other than that, Florida is solid all around and poised to win another National Championship. The thing is, it is very difficult to win back to back National Championships -- even more so in today's days and times. A team needs a little "luck" to go along with the skills and hard work. There is always a surprise loss that seems to occur and last season it was the loss to Mississippi at home. Tim Tebow will likely go down as the best college QB of all time because of all he has achieved, but I don't think he is the best QB in NCAA skill-wise. I believe that honor goes to Colt McCoy. But, Tebow has an ability to not only perform at a high level, but actually WILL his teammates to do the same. It is leadership of the highest caliber. But, can we actually expect him to accomplish that task again this year? I think it's too much to ask. They most definitely will lose another unexpected game this season, but then they will lose to Georgia on October 31st on a neutral field in Jacksonville, FL. Florida not only went 13-1 SU last season, but they also went 12-1 ATS. It's going to be harder this year to find ATS wins with Florida after Vegas gets through with the lines.

    Play-On Games:

    September 19th versus Tennessee: The tiff between Kiffin and Meyer has been well documented. Motivation should be high here and I don't expect Meyer to call off the dogs. Couple this with the fact that Tennessee is grabbing a great deal more hype than their personnel warrants and we have what could be a good line and a Florida cover. My prediction: Florida 38 and Tennessee 13.
    Comment
    • SoonerBS
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 08-26-08
      • 518

      #3
      Tennessee

      Let me just say this to start this preview: I believe it is a toss up between Tennessee, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky for any of the remaining places in the SEC East.

      Now that that has been said, I'll start with Tennessee. Offensively last season, Tennessee was horrible. They only averaged 17.3 ppg and that about says it all. You can't win in college football anymore averaging 17.3 ppg. A BIG part of the problem was QB. None of the QBs that played last year averaged a completion percentage above 52%. There were only 8 TD passes accounted for last year and 9 interceptions. That is just pitiful. Things are not looking up for the passing game this season as it is doubtful that either QB will improve that much. BUT, if they can limit mistakes and turnovers, whoever ends up being QB may not have to do much more than hand the ball off to a RB. Kiffin will utilize the power running game a lot this season. Tennessee recruited two of the best RBs in the nation and both will likely see a lot of playing time this year as true freshmen. The offensive line is big, but not nimble. Again, this does not favor the finesse game, but does favor the power running game.

      Defensively, Tennessee only allowed 16.8 ppg. That was fantastic and the only bright spot on this team. Can they repeat that for this year? They lost 3 of their best defensive players in Wilson, McKenzie and Ayers, but they certainly retain enough talent to make a solid defense this year. On top of that, they have the Old Man Kiffin and Ed Orgeron coaching up the defensive side of the ball. The defense will be one of the best in the SEC again this season.

      There are two points I want to make before moving on to play-on games:

      1.) I don't like it whenever a coach gets more attention than his team does. That is certainly the case here with Kiffin. He's brash and he's an asshole. We'll see how that plays out with his team's performance on the field this season.

      2.) Be looking for UNDERS with this team this year. The combination of a power running game and a stiff defense should mean some low scoring TOTALS.


      Play-On Games:

      September 5th versus Western Kentucky: It will be interesting to see what kind of line will be set on this opening game. I'm thinking there will be a line of around -28. WKU lost 5 starters off their 7 defensive linemen/linebackers from last season. Tennessee's power running game will likely make shambles of a Sunbelt defense that brings back only 4 starters. On the other side of the ball, last year WKU was only able to score 7 points against Alabama and 3 points against Kentucky. This Tennessee defense is even better. My prediction: Tennessee 42 and WKU 3. (This would be a higher point total than Tennessee ever had in any one game last year.)

      September 12th versus UCLA: I'm thinking every gambler in the country will be on Tennessee here. UCLA was not very good last year, but the Vols traveling to the West Coast were embarrassed with an OT loss. This is definitely a revenge spot, but it is also a slightly better Tennessee team and it will be UCLA traveling across the country for this contest. I'm thinking the line could be Tennessee -14 in this one. My prediction: Tennessee 28 and UCLA 10.

      October 31st versus South Carolina: I have tried and tried to see South Carolina being better this year than they have been the last 3 years and I just can't find any reasons to believe that. Most of what I read is that this will be Spurrier's 5th year at South Carolina and his recruits will make a difference. The fact is their offensive line stinks and so does their starting QB. Nothing changes this year with South Carolina except for the fact that they will not win this game like they did last year. I think Kiffin could thrive on trying to humiliate a legendary coach in order to make himself look better. He probably has the team to do it this time around. My prediction: Tennessee 32 and South Carolina 10.
      Comment
      • SoonerBS
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 08-26-08
        • 518

        #4
        Vanderbilt

        Vanderbilt is the Rodney Dangerfield of the SEC -- they get no respect. Even after accumulating a 7-6 record last year and going to their first bowl game since 1982 and winning it, they are getting no respect from the preseason press. What's even more surprising is the fact that they look to be even better this season on both sides of the ball. They bring back 8 on offense and 9 on defense. They bring back 80% of their defensive production and this was a team that only allowed 19.6 ppg last season. They start a QB this season who lead them to their bowl victory last year and who looks to be the right fit for this team. So, why are publications still listing them towards the bottom of the conference? It might have to do with them finishing 1-6 in their last 7 regular season games. OK, good, maybe we can make some money on some soft lines again this year.

        Play-On Games:

        September 19th versus Mississippi State: Mississippi State is going to be horrible this season and by far the worse team in the entire SEC. The great thing here is that since Vanderbilt is not getting any respect, AND since Mississippi State beat them last year whenever Vanderbilt was -2 point favorites, we may get a line here of about -6. My prediction: Vanderbilt 26 and Mississippi State 7.

        October 3rd versus Mississippi: Vanderbilt gets this game sandwiched between a road trip to Rice (which they should win) and a road trip to Army (which they should win). Mississippi on the other hand will be coming off a road trip ESPN Thursday night game against South Carolina and will have Alabama on deck. This is a bad spot for Ole Miss. My prediction: Mississippi 32 and Vanderbilt 28.

        November 7th at Florida: Here is another one of those "road plays" that is rare with me, but I see it as warranted here. Florida will be coming off their big game against Georgia, win or lose, they play this one at home before going back on the road to go play at South Carolina. It will be very easy to overlook Vanderbilt here and Vanderbilt should be big dogs. My prediction: Florida 35 and Vanderbilt 28.
        Comment
        • SoonerBS
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-26-08
          • 518

          #5
          Kentucky

          Kentucky surprised me last season with a 7-6 record after losing some value personnel to NFL and graduation the year before. This season they bring back their QB, Hartline who proved to be a decent QB, there is hope that RB Alfonso Smith will have a breakout year (and he definitely has the potential) and Kentucky should have a solid offensive line as they manage to do on almost an annual basis. They recruited a WR, Chris Matthews from JUCO to shore up the receivers corps. This offense will not dazzle us, but it should be solid and consistent enough to win some ball games this season.

          Defensively the Wildcats were looking solid going into 2009 until their star pass rusher of a year ago, Jeremy Jarmon, lost his eligibility this season by failing a drug test. They have recruited a JUCO for the other DE, but their pass rushing potential took a big hit with Jarmon being out. That places the defensive production at over a 60% loss from last season. It will be hard for them to make it up.

          Play-On Games:


          September 5th versus Miami, OH.: This game will be played on a neutral field in Cincinnati. It will be a great opener for Kentucky because Miami, OH was really bad last season and looks to be even worse this season. This will be a great "tune up" game for Kentucky and we could even be lucky enough to grab a -10 to -14 type line here. My prediction: Kentucky 38 and Miami, OH 10.

          October 3rd versus Alabama: This is a similar situation to this game last season. Alabama had this game sandwiched between two heavy hitters in conference play and fell asleep on Kentucky. They were fortunate to get out of the game with a 3 point win. This year, Alabama will be coming off a game against Arkansas -- a game they will not be able to overlook this year, and they will have Mississippi on deck. Kentucky will be coming off a game against Florida, but they will not be able to overlook anyone this year. Kentucky could be catching +12 here in this spot. My prediction: Alabama 24 and Kentucky 17.

          October 31st versus Mississippi State: This is Kentucky's homecoming game and it is stuck between a couple of very winnable games against ULM and Eastern Kentucky. MSU will be coming off a game against Florida the week before. Mississippi St will be everyone's whipping boy this season. My prediction: Kentucky 45 and MSU 10.
          Comment
          • SoonerBS
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 08-26-08
            • 518

            #6
            South Carolina

            South Carolina brings back 11 starters, their starting QB is likely to be one of the guys who stunk it up last year, their offensive line is horrible, their defense is not good against better offensive teams, and for some reason Phil Steele has them listed 4th in the SEC East? Am I missing something here? What is exactly is suppose to happen to make them better this season than they were last year? I'm not buying it. South Carolina plays a tougher schedule this year than they did last year and I don't see anymore wins than last year.

            Play-On Games:

            September 24th versus Mississippi: I have one simple rule I bind myself to during the college football season no matter how bad it looks: ALWAYS PLAY ON THE HOME TEAM IN ESPN THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES! I'll do it here, too. No prediction.
            Comment
            • footballmoney
              SBR High Roller
              • 01-09-09
              • 185

              #7
              Love reading your write-ups man! Very informational!
              Comment
              • mmike032
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-11-08
                • 8905

                #8
                great write-up
                as a diehard UGA fan
                but cant say I agree 100% about UGA coming out on top of the east, at least not with the bastard child tebow still in Gainesville.
                although this team reminds me of the team that Shockley took over after Greene leaving and no one gave them a chance.
                we all know UGA cant perform when put in the spot light but as an underdog I think it might be a very profitable season for UGA backers.

                cant wait for the Tenn/FLA game with all the hype surrounding it and I expect Meyer to extend a warm welcome to Tiffin coaching in the SEC. This one has blow out written all over it IMO
                Comment
                • cspurs
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 12-30-08
                  • 86

                  #9
                  Sooner, I am a Gamecock fan and I hate to say it but I agree with you. I have a wait and see attitude with the Gamecocks. We have a lot of talent, but not sure of the character. People are still putting alot of faith in Garcia and he had time to prepare for the bowl game and looked real bad. With the schedule as tough as it is this year I am hoping for a bowl. Some fans keep talking about FL and Georgia, we need to look at Vandy (0-2 last 2 years), no disrespect to Vandy but if we cannot beat them, the upper level teams of the SEC are a stretch.
                  All that being said....Go Gamecocks !!
                  Comment
                  • sirwinzalot
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 06-13-07
                    • 121

                    #10
                    Definitely agree here once again that Georgia is the bet on team in the SEC East, should be a money maker.
                    Comment
                    • Mac4Lyfe
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-04-09
                      • 48805

                      #11
                      UGA will be much better this year but don't expect the Gators to slip up. The defense will be scary good along with the special teams. The offense won't need to do much but manage games. I like your write ups but no way does Vandy stay within 21 points. Also USC will be number 3 behind UGA and UF. There defense is serviceable and SOS finally has his QB. Look for them to spank UT, whose offense will be awful and maybe an upset over UGA. Vandy and UK will bring up the rear as usual.
                      Comment
                      • taurus
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 08-11-05
                        • 206

                        #12
                        great stuff , den.
                        You know any reason I can't access the empire ??
                        cheers
                        bull
                        Comment
                        • SoonerBS
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 08-26-08
                          • 518

                          #13
                          Originally posted by taurus
                          great stuff , den.
                          You know any reason I can't access the empire ??
                          cheers
                          bull
                          No, I don't, Bull, email me at 8222walk@gmail.com and we'll try to figure it out.
                          Comment
                          • taurus
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 08-11-05
                            • 206

                            #14
                            Thanks
                            off to th eye doc.
                            talk later
                            b
                            Comment
                            • masr
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-20-07
                              • 4770

                              #15
                              Good to see football is almost back...thanks for priming me up w/ the SEC to start the season, Sooner
                              Comment
                              • CaneDawg
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-25-08
                                • 6256

                                #16
                                we shall see how good the dawgs are week one

                                oklahoma state can score with anyone

                                anyone seen a line on this game yet
                                Comment
                                • ZBOIZ
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 06-22-08
                                  • 21464

                                  #17
                                  That Georgia and Oklahoma state game will be a hard one to cap.
                                  Comment
                                  • M.W.
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-07-08
                                    • 1668

                                    #18
                                    LET ME SAY THIS AT THE OUTSET, WHETHER GEORGIA WINS THE SEC EAST OR NOT, I BELIEVE THEY WILL BE MONEY ALL SEASON LONG AND WILL BE A GOOD PLAY-ON TEAM ALL SEASON!
                                    I agree completely.
                                    Comment
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