Simple system for betting 1H totals

JTrain · 11-02-17, 07:14 PM

Football - 360 Charlotte vs Old Dominion over 25.5

Football - 378 Western Kentucky vs Vanderbilt over 27

Football - 342 Virginia Tech vs Miami Florida under 25½

Football - 356 Georgia State vs Georgia Southern over 26 -105 for 1st Half

BChrisB · 11-02-17, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by JTrain

I find that the books do not adjust 1H lines much to account for individual team tendencies.

I'm interested in what you'll have to say and the theory and/or math behind it. However, for the time being can you go more into detail and explain what you mean by "individual team tendencies?"

JTrain · 11-02-17, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by BChrisB

I'm interested in what you'll have to say and the theory and/or math behind it. However, for the time being can you go more into detail and explain what you mean by "individual team tendencies?"

Yup, very simple math. Looking at the ratio of 1H:2H for both scoring offense and scoring defense. Looking for games where the combined ratios are exceptionally high (overs) or low (unders).

eastvan09 · 11-02-17, 09:40 PM

I'm following with interest

Martinr · 11-04-17, 01:38 AM

Charlotte @ Old Dom might get a bit frustrating.
Pass TD:INT ratio of 12:27 combined (6:13 & 6:14)

JTrain · 11-06-17, 06:01 PM

2-2 last week. I will have this week's plays figured out tonight and the numbers posted when the halftime lines show up.

JTrain · 11-06-17, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Martinr

Charlotte @ Old Dom might get a bit frustrating.
Pass TD:INT ratio of 12:27 combined (6:13 & 6:14)

You nailed it. 3-0 at half, 6-0 final

Excellent discernment. Would love to make more checks in my system to rule out plays that might not make sense upon further inspection, but unfortunately don't have the time right now. But do let us know if you see any other plays where the stats may be misleading.

Martinr · 11-07-17, 12:42 AM

Context

JTrain · 11-09-17, 08:51 PM

Ark LSU U 27.5

WKU Marshall O 25.5

SJSU Nev O 34

jayfd · 11-09-17, 11:01 PM

Thank you