Anyone notice 3 or 4pt favorites in football never cover

[Rich Boy]

This is a trend I have noticed especially in college football

Favorites between 3 and 4 points rarely ever cover and probably lose outright half the time despite laying around -200 ML

Am I crazy or does anyone else notice this.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i thought that the past few years that small road favourites were very good ATS in conference games.... thx to BigDaddy for first pointing that out to me.

i do alot of data work and so much of it is interpretation... say 5-6 faves are good as are 0-2 point faves, but 3-4 points faves are terrible... what's the logical reasoning behind this? the players/coaches don't care about the spreads. there's often slightly different lines from different services too.... anyway, i think about this stuff all time. why? why? why? does this make sense logically?

this is backtracking and similar to my first post. a home 3-4 fave = even strength team, road 3-4 fave = 7-8 point better team. completely different competitive dynamic........ also, HFA may change with game dynamic but that's its own thread.

[Time is Money]

Ironic you post this ona night where a 4pt dog covers

[Rich Boy]

Ironic you post this ona night where a 4pt dog covers

Im saying the Favorite never covers, or rarely covers, or just doesnt cover when Im on them lol

[BigDofBA]

It's about 50/50.

You're just living in the now with A&M and Ga. Tech covering in consecutive games.

I'll track this next week in this thread to prove it.

[ZINISTER]

I always thought that about 1 & 2pt. favs.

[Capitols44]

It's about 50/50.

You're just living in the now with A&M and Ga. Tech covering in consecutive games.

I'll track this next week in this thread to prove it.

Check to see all the 3 to 4 point college football favorites from last year to see if they covered.

[Rich Boy]

I looked into this and according to teamrankings.com its around 50% cover rate since 2003

However since 2015:

-2.5 favorites are 10-15
-3 favorites are 21-26-4
-3.5 favorites are 15-24

[ronzer]

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=line%3C%3D-3+and+line%3E%3D-4&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

SU:1226-756-1 (3.55, 61.9%)
ATS:935-941-107 (0.22, 49.8%) avg line: -3.3
O/U:962-981-40 (0.91, 49.5%)
avg total: 41.6
Teaser Records

+6: 1301-589-93 (68.8%) -6: 591-1360-32 (30.3%)
+10: 1576-354-53 (81.7%) -10: 406-1540-37 (20.9%)
+6: 641-1318-24 (32.7%)-6: 1323-629-31 (67.8%)
+10: 475-1485-23 (24.2%) -10: 1546-415-22 (78.8%)

[gojetsgomoxies]

I always thought that about 1 & 2pt. favs.

looks like your are correct.... small fave have been bad, 5-7 point faves have been good .... ncaaf, recently

http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=line%3C%3D0.5+and+line%3E%3D-7%2C5+and+date+%3E+20120101+and+line&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[gojetsgomoxies]

looks like your are correct.... small fave have been bad, 5-7 point faves have been bad.... ncaaf, recently

http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

and when you slice/dice home vs. away the effects are massive.............i didn't filter out conference vs non-conference

[BigdaddyQH]

Let's see what we have: 1/2 to 4 point favorites.

Boston College -3 1/2 @ NIU, wins by 3. No cover. UMass -2 1/2 @ Coastal Carolina Loses. No cover. Colorado State -3 1/2 v Oregon State. Win. Cover. UMass -1 1/2 vs Hawaii. Loses. No Cover. Marshall -1 1/2 vs Miami Oh. Win. Cover. Vandy -3 vs Middle Tennessee. Win. Cover. Tennessee -3 vs Ga. Tech. Tennessee wins by 1. No cover. Va Tech -4 vs West Virginia. Win. Cover.

Total. 4-4. Certainly not enough evidence to base any conclusions on.

[Rich Boy]

Let's see what we have: 1/2 to 4 point favorites.

Boston College -3 1/2 @ NIU, wins by 3. No cover. UMass -2 1/2 @ Coastal Carolina Loses. No cover. Colorado State -3 1/2 v Oregon State. Win. Cover. UMass -1 1/2 vs Hawaii. Loses. No Cover. Marshall -1 1/2 vs Miami Oh. Win. Cover. Vandy -3 vs Middle Tennessee. Win. Cover. Tennessee -3 vs Ga. Tech. Tennessee wins by 1. No cover. Va Tech -4 vs West Virginia. Win. Cover.

Total. 4-4. Certainly not enough evidence to base any conclusions on.

Miami OH closed as favorites and got rocked, I was on them at + money