HG's 2017-18 College Football Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

Gonna try to do one of these again this season. Starting in Week 5 I will post predictions from my model. Last season we had some really good success using model plays on home underdogs. Hoping to see get that continue (or to be nimble enough to adjust).

Until Week 5 I will post picks with general analysis.

GL to all!

[wlulaxer]

Looking forward to it, enjoyed seeing your take on games last year, cheers

[HeeluvaGuy]

For those who followed last year in football and especially basketball, you know that I am mostly a numbers guy. Early in the season, however, we don't have much data to go on. So these early picks are based a lot on things like coaching changes, QB changes, returning starters/production, etc.

Here are two for Thursday:

FIU +17 -103
FIU returns more than perhaps any team in the nation. That the players returning went just 4-8 last year is concerning, but there is reason for optimism, particularly in this matchup. Specifically, Butch Davis inherits a senior QB who has a chance to leave FIU as its all-time leading passer, a senior RB who is already the school’s leading rusher, and 5 of the top 6 WRs from last season. On defense the Panthers return 8 starters, including 9 of their top 10 tacklers from last season. UCF returns a lot on offense as well from a team that hung 53 on FIU last season, but the Knights return on 4 starters on defense. If FIU’s experienced offense can capitalize on the youth in UCF’s secondary (FR, 2Sophs, JR), the Panthers can easily cover this one, and could possibly pull off the big upset of Thursday night (like they did in 2015). Here’s what some publications have for this line: Goldsheet +10, Winning Points +14, Power Sweep +17, Power Plays +15, Massey +14, Dunkel +14, CFBAnalytics -6.1
Oklahoma St -17.5 -106
As you can see below, the computers tend to like Tulsa to cover this game. I disagree here because of what Tulsa lost this season: starting QB (career passing leader Dane Evans, 3,348 yds, 32 TDs, 12 INTs last year), a 1,000 yard RB, and two 1,000 yard WRs. On the bright side, the Golden Hurricane return 1,400 yard rusher D’Angelo Brewer and 4/5 of a good starting OL. It’s no secret Tulsa likes to go fast on offense (#2 in possessions per game, and #4 in plays per game). With a sophomore QB making his first start in a difficult environment on national television, this could be a recipe for disaster, especially if Tulsa leaves the Cowboys with a short field. OSU looks to be one of the top offensive teams in the nation, with all of its skill key players returning to go along with (basically) 4 returning starters on the OL. Defensively OSU only returns 5 starters, but fills those spots with a lot of upperclassmen. Oklahoma State has championship aspirations this season, and I expect them to look to impress on national television in prime time. Tulsa’s inexperience on offense could result in an early deficit and inability to rely on what should otherwise be a potent ground attack this season. I’m laying the points here and hoping to avoid a backdoor cover late in the game. Here’s what some publications have for this line: Goldsheet -24, Winning Points -14, Power Sweep -17, Power Plays -13, Massey -8, Dunkel -13.5, CFBAnalytics -20.6

[Gamblinmann]

That damn back door cover is always a worry in a game like this. Tulsa will be playing their 1st sting in the 4th quarter and the Cowboys will have their 2's and 3.s in. However, I firmly believe by that time Okie St will have scored 50+ so it should be a mute point. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looking forward to it, enjoyed seeing your take on games last year, cheers

Best of luck this season!

That damn back door cover is always a worry in a game like this. Tulsa will be playing their 1st sting in the 4th quarter and the Cowboys will have their 2's and 3.s in. However, I firmly believe by that time Okie St will have scored 50+ so it should be a mute point. Good luck

Yep. That's the big risk here. But I think Tulsa takes a step back from last season offensively. Plus, Tulsa has lost by 45, 14, 45, 31, and 17 against P5 teams over the past 4 seasons.

[HeeluvaGuy]

FWIW, Friday will be a pass for me.

[HeeluvaGuy]

FIU +17 -103

Oklahoma St -17.5 -106

Missed one badly and covered one pretty comfortably. Welcome to Week 1.

1-1 (-.03u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Miami(OH)/Marshall o46
This is a very low total for a college football game. Last season the average total in CFB was 60.2 ppg. There is a chance of rain, but no wind to speak of for this one. Last season these two teams played a combined 4 games under 46 points. The Redhawks return just about everyone on offense, and when Gus Ragland moved into the starting QB role, their ppg average went up over 8 ppg to 26 (including the bowl game against Mississippi St). Miami doesn’t play fast, but they should be more efficient with 9 starters back on offense, including all key skill players. It also helps that they face a defense (7 returning starters) that surrendered 35.3 ppg last season (12.9 YPP). Marshall loses a lot from the receiving core, but there is good experience everywhere else on offense. The Thundering Herd play with more pace on offense, so that may lead to a possession or two more than Miami usually plays with. Miami returns a lot from a defense that was pretty good last season (23.8 ppg), but all of the Redhawks’ best pass rushers are gone.

[doubledime]

Great write up. Good luck today!

[doubledime]

Well done, over in third

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well done, over in third

Three non-offensive TDs helps a lot.

Thanks for popping in.

[wlulaxer]

Thanks for the winner HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for the winner HG

Glad it worked out. I was planning to have more but wasn't very responsible Friday night. It happens.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Miami(OH)/Marshall o46

Benefited greatly from 3 TD returns (2 KO and 1 INT). Not complaining.

2-1 (+.97u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry, I don't have time to write these up like I normally do. Nevertheless, here's my Saturday slate (most likely final). Best of luck to everyone!

12:00 Buffalo/Army u54.5 -107
I don’t see enough possessions in this game to get it out of the 40s.


12:00 Northwestern -2.5 -103

Hard to back road favorites, but it’s not like Duke has a home field advantage. Backing the better team here.


3:30 Arkansas +3 -110

I will back the home squad in this one. One big reason: 344, 313, 319, 335, 300 vs. 257, 275, 300, 235. Those are the weights of the Arky OL vs the TCU DL.


10:30 Washington St -10 -105

Luke Faulk threw for 480 yards last season in Boise. This year’s Bronco secondary may even be worse. Look for Leach to get revenge for the 31-28 loss last season.

[doubledime]

Sorry, I don't have time to write these up like I normally do. Nevertheless, here's my Saturday slate (most likely final). Best of luck to everyone!

12:00 Buffalo/Army u54.5 -107
I don’t see enough possessions in this game to get it out of the 40s.


12:00 Northwestern -2.5 -103

Hard to back road favorites, but it’s not like Duke has a home field advantage. Backing the better team here.


3:30 Arkansas +3 -110

I will back the home squad in this one. One big reason: 344, 313, 319, 335, 300 vs. 257, 275, 300, 235. Those are the weights of the Arky OL vs the TCU DL.


10:30 Washington St -10 -105

Luke Faulk threw for 480 yards last season in Boise. This year’s Bronco secondary may even be worse. Look for Leach to get revenge for the 31-28 loss last season.

All Aboard the HG train! Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Uno mas:

11:00 San Diego St/Arizona St o54 -103

[Fred The Hammer]

Uno mas:

11:00 San Diego St/Arizona St o54 -103

I'm on SDS and the Over parlay. Ariz St. is soft and SD State plays very physical for the West coast.....they'll run all over them

GL!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm on SDS and the Over parlay. Ariz St. is soft and SD State plays very physical for the West coast.....they'll run all over them

GL!!

Wouldn't surprise me at all if SDSU wins. BOL!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Miserable 1-5 last week. Hoping for better this week.

YTD: 3-6 (-2.25u)

Sorry no writeups again, but here is what I have for Saturday so far:

N. Illinois/Nebraska o56.5 -108

Oregon/Wyoming 061.5 -105


Good luck everyone!

[doubledime]

Good luck today. I see we both have the NIU game over. I had a good friend that was a big booster/alumni of NIU that passed away about 2 months ago. I learned a little from him about NIU games, so I hope he's watching. Let's cash it

[Enkhbat]

Oregon/Wyoming 061.5 -105, what is the angle here? Wyoming seems to have a decent defense and bad offence.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Oregon/Wyoming 061.5 -105, what is the angle here? Wyoming seems to have a decent defense and bad offence.

Well, Oregon will put up some points, and the Ducks' defense is still suspect. I think Wyoming can have some success through the air. I also think we could see some late game scores as the effects of being at 7,000 feet start to show for Oregon.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good luck today. I see we both have the NIU game over. I had a good friend that was a big booster/alumni of NIU that passed away about 2 months ago. I learned a little from him about NIU games, so I hope he's watching. Let's cash it

Thanks DD. NIU certainly has the pace to help this one get over. We're gonna need them to convert a few times to get this one. Best of luck today!

[HeeluvaGuy]

N. Illinois/Nebraska o56.5 -108

Oregon/Wyoming 061.5 -105

1-1 yesterday. Traveling next week so may not get much out. Should have mode numbers posted starting week 5.

YTD: 4-7 (-2.33u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'll post a link in a bit to lines from my model. Still a bit early to use, but I like to be transparent. Tonight I'm playing:

Utah/Arizona u61 -103
Neither team has played much of a schedule, and their offensive numbers are a tad inflated as a result. This RichRod team isn't moving quite as fast as seasons past, so we shouldn't see a lot of possessions here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here are my Week 4 lines. Some of these are obviously garbage, but they should tighten up in the coming weeks (there are also some games where I couldn't make a line). For those who haven't read these before, everything is based off of the home team. A negative delta for the sides means the model favors the home team ATS; a positive number means it favors the road team. At this time last year, the home underdogs did pretty well. The home dogs the model likes this week are:

Arizona +4
Purdue +10.5
Kentucky +2.5
Central Michigan +1.5
Colorado +12
Michigan State +3
Vandy +18.5
Texas State +13.5
Air Force +3.5
Cal +17
San Jose State +1.5

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IPTMBrCa2beee-39hZ2JT05LodnSEA0nHUXGa30ffI8/edit?usp=sharing

[HeeluvaGuy]

Not gonna have time to do writeups, but here's what I have so far for Saturday:

Purdue +10.5
Michigan St +3
New Mexico/Tulsa o67.5
Hawai'i/Wyoming o57.5

Good luck to everyone this weekend!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Found my thread from last year. The real fun started on Week 5: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post26458902

tl;dr - Model went 25-15 on home dogs ATS from Week 5 to Week 10 (went 3-6 Week 10). Went .500 SU at a +240.5 average (through Week 9).

[doubledime]

Not gonna have time to do writeups, but here's what I have so far for Saturday:

Purdue +10.5
Michigan St +3
New Mexico/Tulsa o67.5
Hawai'i/Wyoming o57.5

Good luck to everyone this weekend!

I have Mich St (as my first side this season) and Haw/WY over on my short list too. I am a little concerned about the weather in WY but will still probably post it.

BTW, thanks for your spread sheets.

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Utah/Arizona u61 -103
Neither team has played much of a schedule, and their offensive numbers are a tad inflated as a result. This RichRod team isn't moving quite as fast as seasons past, so we shouldn't see a lot of possessions here.

Fairly easy winner for a college under.

YTD: 5-7 (-1.33u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

I have Mich St (as my first side this season) and Haw/WY over on my short list too. I am a little concerned about the weather in WY but will still probably post it.

BTW, thanks for your spread sheets.

Good luck

It's still early for the model, but more information shouldn't hurt. GL today!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Got absolutely murdered last week. I'll update my record soon, but I'm in a bit of a hurry right now. Wanted to post my lines for the Thursday and Friday games. Please ignore the Miami/Duke spread for now. I think there's an error, but I can't check it out right now.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IPTMBrCa2beee-39hZ2JT05LodnSEA0nHUXGa30ffI8

[HeeluvaGuy]

Model is updated with all games this weekend. A couple of things to mention: 1) Totals are lagging behind quite a bit and don't appear to be very reliable right now. 2) There are still some teams that haven't played four (or even three) games yet. That's mostly the Florida schools due to the hurricane. Use caution with those games. 3) As always, I have to mention that these numbers do not account for injuries. 4) Not really model related, but through he first four weeks of the season, home underdogs are just 25-38 (39%) ATS. I expect we'll see a correction there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IPTMBrCa2beee-39hZ2JT05LodnSEA0nHUXGa30ffI8

[doubledime]

Model is updated with all games this weekend. A couple of things to mention: 1) Totals are lagging behind quite a bit and don't appear to be very reliable right now. 2) There are still some teams that haven't played four (or even three) games yet. That's mostly the Florida schools due to the hurricane. Use caution with those games. 3) As always, I have to mention that these numbers do not account for injuries. 4) Not really model related, but through he first four weeks of the season, home underdogs are just 25-38 (39%) ATS. I expect we'll see a correction there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IPTMBrCa2beee-39hZ2JT05LodnSEA0nHUXGa30ffI8

Thanks for updating