A total to put on your radar

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  • Ralphie Halves
    SBR MVP
    • 12-13-09
    • 4507

    #1
    A total to put on your radar
    But don't bet it yet.

    Colo/CSU ovr 63

    I like both teams as OVR teams for the early part of the year, and they just happen to be playing each other.

    Colorado showed a really strong D last year, but did inflate their stats a bit over bad offensive teams like Stanford, Idaho St, and UCLA. They lose a lot on D, which doesn't always mean much on a larger scale, but getting everything right with new players in week 1 can be tough.

    Here's the thing though, Colorado should score even more points this year. A good offense got even better. The entire offense returns minus their QB, but Steven Montez is the real freaking deal, watch out for this kid.

    "But they only beat CSU last year 44-7! That's only 51 points!!" Slow down.

    That was before QB Nick Stevens took over for CSU. They were a completely different team before that. It was up up and away the moment he took over. And their D shouldn't be anything special this year again, at least not enough to stop what could be a juggernaut offense in Colorado this year.

    The biggest advantage is that we all get to watch CSU play before we even bet this game! If my above paragraph about CSU rings true in the Oregon State game, I'm running to the books to play this total over, especially if it stays at 63.
  • reigle9
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-25-07
    • 17879

    #2
    I'm with you.

    Also took this today.
    149 Boston College/Northern Illinois Under 46
    Comment
    • Riders23
      SBR Hustler
      • 08-05-17
      • 74

      #3
      I've been saying this for a while now.
      Comment
      • Ralphie Halves
        SBR MVP
        • 12-13-09
        • 4507

        #4
        Originally posted by reigle9
        I'm with you.

        Also took this today.
        149 Boston College/Northern Illinois Under 46
        I talked about that game here https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...preciated.html

        Not playing the other side, just cautious.
        Comment
        • BigdaddyQH
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-13-09
          • 19530

          #5
          Here is the problem for Colorado. Montez does have a lot of potential, but this is game #1 for him and Colorado this season. The Buff's defense is basically unskilled and untested. Only 3 starters return and they have already lost two players on their 2nd string depth chart.

          Colorado State is the exact opposite. Their offense returns 5 starters, and is not the most potent around. Their defense returns eight starters, but they were not that talented last season.

          These two teams have combined for more than 51 points just once in the past 8 seasons. They normally play this huge rivalry game pretty close to the vest. This is game #1 for Colorado, so who knows what they really have. The 63 1/2 point total is simply too high is simply too high to go Over on. Way too many uncertainties for Colorado, a team that will probably regress this season.
          Comment
          • crackerjack
            SBR MVP
            • 08-01-06
            • 3366

            #6
            Have to agree with bigdaddy on this one. That number seems too high. I'd for sure at least wait until after you see CSU play this weekend...
            Comment
            • Ralphie Halves
              SBR MVP
              • 12-13-09
              • 4507

              #7
              Montez has 3 starts I believe.

              What happened 8 seasons ago has zero bearing on this game. What happened 2 seasons ago has zero bearing in this game.

              And yes, definitely wait until you catch a glimpse of CSU first, like I said it's a good advantage to have here. It's nice they're not playing a junk team to start, so you can get a much better idea of where they're at early.
              Comment
              • Ralphie Halves
                SBR MVP
                • 12-13-09
                • 4507

                #8
                I just bet the Colo/CSU over 63, with lots of confidence.
                Comment
                • Gamblinmann
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 08-13-17
                  • 269

                  #9
                  And I just pounded Colorado St +7
                  Comment
                  • Riders23
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 08-05-17
                    • 74

                    #10
                    Colorado State is going to get wrecked by Colorado. Colorado might cover the over themselves.
                    Comment
                    • Ralphie Halves
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-13-09
                      • 4507

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Riders23
                      Colorado State is going to get wrecked by Colorado. Colorado might cover the over themselves.
                      Fine with me.

                      Colorado's D will still be in the figuring-things-out stage IMO. They had like 3 guys in their secondary go pro last year. Nick Stevens should have another good game, as usual.
                      Comment
                      • JMF2479
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 08-29-09
                        • 592

                        #12
                        After what I saw yesterday , I like the over too.
                        Comment
                        • Ballstothewalls.
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 11-30-11
                          • 5

                          #13
                          I easily see both teams combining for 75+.
                          Comment
                          • BigdaddyQH
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 07-13-09
                            • 19530

                            #14
                            This is exactly what the books are betting on. Just because a good Colorado State team beat a bad Oregon State team, they push the Total up and up. It is already at 65 1/2 at some books now, and it will probably go higher. That means a 34-31 game does NOT cover the Over. If this goes much higher, the Under is going to be a solid wager.
                            Comment
                            • Ralphie Halves
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-13-09
                              • 4507

                              #15
                              The books for the most part just want to get equal action on both sides, and hopefully they will now and the total won't go much higher. It was my fault for not hitting it right away after the game. I may wait for it to come down a bit now.

                              But IMO the total should be in the 70s. Colorado has some real questions to answer on D, and their offense is a lot better than OSU's.
                              Comment
                              • Gamblinmann
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 08-13-17
                                • 269

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Riders23
                                Colorado State is going to get wrecked by Colorado. Colorado might cover the over themselves.
                                Not this time. Who's gonna cover Gallup? CSU has FOUR RB backs to carry the load. Their skill payers including QB are so much better than Colorado's. Montez is'nt fit to carry Stevens jock strap.
                                Comment
                                • 2daBank
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-26-09
                                  • 88966

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Riders23
                                  Colorado State is going to get wrecked by Colorado. Colorado might cover the over themselves.
                                  Why do you say this? I'm more than happy to listen cause good conversation what this place should be about, but simply saying "buffs gonna wreck them" doesn't do much for anyone. Why you think this?

                                  Buffs lost a ton while col st returns a lot. Col st showed their offense is more than capable and I don't see much reason to believe that buffs secondary will be up to the challenge w lot of new pieces.
                                  Comment
                                  • ZINISTER
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 10-03-12
                                    • 1651

                                    #18
                                    I'm surprised that the Books haven't made the totals higher to start the season. The way defenses are a bit ahead of the offenses may be the reason. I watched the CSU/OSU game. Anderson is an idiot coach. Neither team impressed me defensively. The OSU QB missed out on 3 TD passes early. The teams out west DO NOT play defense! If you like it take it now. Don't see it going down. I don't know much about Buffs, so I will wait to bet on a game they are involved in.GL
                                    Comment
                                    • 2daBank
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-26-09
                                      • 88966

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ZINISTER
                                      I'm surprised that the Books haven't made the totals higher to start the season. The way defenses are a bit ahead of the offenses may be the reason. I watched the CSU/OSU game. Anderson is an idiot coach. Neither team impressed me defensively. The OSU QB missed out on 3 TD passes early. The teams out west DO NOT play defense! If you like it take it now. Don't see it going down. I don't know much about Buffs, so I will wait to bet on a game they are involved in.GL
                                      I'm not sure defenses are ahead. Offenses have much more chances in practice to get in rythem while there ain't a ton a tackling going on. This might be more true in NFL than college but in general I think defenses need game action to sure up tackling and such while the skill players been playing bunch of 7 on 7 and such..
                                      Comment
                                      • JayDr3am
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 05-06-14
                                        • 18260

                                        #20
                                        who is going to score these pts lol thats what i want to know
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by JayDr3am
                                          who is going to score these pts lol thats what i want to know
                                          I certainly think there better totals out there. Really like tOSU/Indy over. Okie st/Tulsa over. Auburn over. To name a few.
                                          Comment
                                          • JMF2479
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 08-29-09
                                            • 592

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Ralphie Halves
                                            But don't bet it yet.


                                            Colo/CSU ovr 63

                                            I like both teams as OVR teams for the early part of the year, and they just happen to be playing each other.

                                            Colorado showed a really strong D last year, but did inflate their stats a bit over bad offensive teams like Stanford, Idaho St, and UCLA. They lose a lot on D, which doesn't always mean much on a larger scale, but getting everything right with new players in week 1 can be tough.

                                            Here's the thing though, Colorado should score even more points this year. A good offense got even better. The entire offense returns minus their QB, but Steven Montez is the real freaking deal, watch out for this kid.

                                            "But they only beat CSU last year 44-7! That's only 51 points!!" Slow down.

                                            That was before QB Nick Stevens took over for CSU. They were a completely different team before that. It was up up and away the moment he took over. And their D shouldn't be anything special this year again, at least not enough to stop what could be a juggernaut offense in Colorado this year.

                                            The biggest advantage is that we all get to watch CSU play before we even bet this game! If my above paragraph about CSU rings true in the Oregon State game, I'm running to the books to play this total over, especially if it stays at 63.
                                            good Call !
                                            Comment
                                            • JayDr3am
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 05-06-14
                                              • 18260

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                                              I certainly think there better totals out there. Really like tOSU/Indy over. Okie st/Tulsa over. Auburn over. To name a few.
                                              i like where your heads at. too early to make anything official but that is one to definitely keep your eyes on
                                              Comment
                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by JayDr3am
                                                i like where your heads at. too early to make anything official but that is one to definitely keep your eyes on
                                                Too early? Shit I grabbed those all few days ago, think they have all moved up since then and I wouldn't be surprised if they ticked up more before kickoff..hopefully I don't get weather problems but rather take that chance than have them move up on me.
                                                Comment
                                                • Ralphie Halves
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-13-09
                                                  • 4507

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                  Too early? Shit I grabbed those all few days ago, think they have all moved up since then and I wouldn't be surprised if they ticked up more before kickoff..hopefully I don't get weather problems but rather take that chance than have them move up on me.
                                                  If weather issues are light to medium, you should be fine -- it can actually work in your favor.

                                                  Heavy weather and especially wind -- good for unders.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 2daBank
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 88966

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Ralphie Halves
                                                    If weather issues are light to medium, you should be fine -- it can actually work in your favor.

                                                    Heavy weather and especially wind -- good for unders.
                                                    Yea the only one that I'm little concerned about was the okie st game as who knows if that hurricane will be effecting weather there by thu?? I bet that before the hurricane even hit Texas tho so I didn't know. Hopefully doesn't effect it.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ZINISTER
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 10-03-12
                                                      • 1651

                                                      #27
                                                      Good point on the lack of practice on tackling. These kids overall desire to tackle has left the body.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Riders23
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 08-05-17
                                                        • 74

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                        Why do you say this? I'm more than happy to listen cause good conversation what this place should be about, but simply saying "buffs gonna wreck them" doesn't do much for anyone. Why you think this?

                                                        Buffs lost a ton while col st returns a lot. Col st showed their offense is more than capable and I don't see much reason to believe that buffs secondary will be up to the challenge w lot of new pieces.
                                                        Colorado st showed their offense? Against a def that allowed 30ppg last year and a offense that committed 5 turnovers? Don't read too much into the score. Colorado St couldn't stop Oregon ST, and Colorados offense is on a completely different level than Oregon States offense. Colorado put up 44? points on colorado state last year and their offense should be quite a bit more explosive this year. I'm expecting Colorado to score on almost every single drive.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • gilbert91016
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-29-09
                                                          • 1479

                                                          #29
                                                          Line up to 69
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HeeluvaGuy
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-15-14
                                                            • 3449

                                                            #30
                                                            Wonder what condition the field is in. There was an NFL preseason game there last night.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 2daBank
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-26-09
                                                              • 88966

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                              I certainly think there better totals out there. Really like tOSU/Indy over. Okie st/Tulsa over. Auburn over. To name a few.
                                                              2-0 thus far
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #32
                                                                Few more i like..

                                                                Scary/NC state over.

                                                                S.bama/ol miss over.

                                                                Like the Nevada/northwestern over as well but I played it at 56.5 and it now 60.5. Still think it goes over tho.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Grits n' Gravy
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 06-10-10
                                                                  • 13024

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Nobody talking about CU's defense regressing with Leavitt taking off for Oregon.

                                                                  Col St looked decent against a bottom feeding Oregon St program. I haven't touched this game but would lean towards Col St and under if it stays at 69.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Ralphie Halves
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                                    • 4507

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Yeah, can't take this over anymore. Still think it goes there, but won't donk into a bad line. Ah well, ya move on.
                                                                    Comment
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