CFB - Week 1 Locked In

Mike2332 · 08-11-17, 09:21 PM

Also

Troy +12 @ Boise ST 1U

BSU loses 6 of 7 top tacklers on "D", they lose key pieces on O-Line and star RB McNichols - lots of questions mark for BSU coming in......Troy had a great 10 win season... Nothing indicates any kind of decline. They went toe to toe with Clemson last season - only losing by 6 nearly matching them yard for yard... They will be even better on offense this season with a more EXP. group on the O-line.......Teams too evenly matched for a double digit spread....I think this will be a tight game.

AZ ST -24 VS NM ST 1U

Was hoping this line would come down to 24 and it did.........NM ST has given up 50+ points in 11 of last 25 games.....HC Coach Doug Martin has not had a winning season in 12 years of FBS coaching....This is just a awful team who were lucky to win 3 games last season.......I like the hire of D.C. Phil Bennett for AZ ST......He did a good job in his days at Baylor against those high powered BIG 12 Offenses.......Todd Graham knows this is a do or die season for him and will come out strong.....NM ST prone to blowouts....Especially here against a Power 5 Unit

AZ ST 48
NM ST 14

Good luck fellas

Ralphie Halves · 08-11-17, 11:23 PM

I like your North Dakota play. Utah will be fine overall, very few punch above their weight like Kyle Whittingham does. First game though, I can't see them running away with it, and they can get clunky at times, especially with Joe Williams gone now.

Hard to disagree with your other plays. Best of luck this year.

Riders23 · 08-12-17, 01:15 PM

Troy ML has tons of value. Boise should be a 3.5 point fav.

jtoler · 08-12-17, 04:30 PM

wonder if boise will creep to 14 closer to game.

Mike2332 · 08-12-17, 04:53 PM

I like Coach Whitt as well....I think this will be a down year for them but will bounce back quick.......They just lost too much talent on O-Line and RB position.......Hunter Dimick and Pita Taumo combined for 25 sacks on "D"and are gone as well......Only 9 returning starters overall.......Running the ball and big plays on "D" have been the identity of his teams......

Good Luck Halves

BigdaddyQH · 08-13-17, 11:48 AM

Arizona State could be the worst team in the Pac 12 South. They have no starting QB as of yet. Both of these teams are terrible on defense. Hiring a defensive coordinator from Baylor is not a real encouraging sign for ASU. The over is a much better wager than giving 24 points to anyone who plays Arizona State.

Notre Dame should have no problems against a Temple team who loses most of their offense and all of their key players in the backfield including their QB. We all know Notre Dame's history of futility and disappointment. Their defensive line could be a siv to start the season. The Irish are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games, and 23-28 in their last 4 seasons, with only one winning season ATS in that time period. Giving anything more than 14 is a gamble here. The Irish can do it, but will they?

I like the Texas play only because Herman MUST win big in game one. Maryland is an up and coming team, capable of pulling an upset or two, but not this early in the season. I like the fact that you are on the right side if the line, only having to give 16 1/2 points. The only thing I would question is calling Texas a "quality" team. The Big 12 only has two "quality" teams and they both reside in Oklahoma.

Gamblinmann · 08-19-17, 10:16 AM

I am leaning on Texas also. Way to much talent but can they put it together?

Mike2332 · 08-19-17, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Gamblinmann

I am leaning on Texas also. Way to much talent but can they put it together?

I really think so.....But particularly this game.....Even without Chris Warren I think they will rush for 250-300 YDS....Texas just too talented I believe and Tom Herman will get the best out of this unit...........Maryland still 1-2 years away.......They are weak at QB and will have problems putting up points.

Gamblinmann · 08-19-17, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Mike2332

I really think so.....But particularly this game.....Even without Chris Warren I think they will rush for 250-300 YDS....Texas just too talented I believe and Tom Herman will get the best out of this unit...........Maryland still 1-2 years away.......They are weak at QB and will have problems putting up points.

The Terps were bad against good teams last year. I've been doing the math on this one and I have Texas scoring 40+ and I just do not see enough firepower on Maryland to get more than 14. If I get my 2 plays next Saturday, I'm gonna put the winnings on Texas.

JMF2479 · 08-22-17, 08:43 PM

Where are you finding the central Michigan line?

Mike2332 · 08-22-17, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by JMF2479

Where are you finding the central Michigan line?

5 Dimes

Riders23 · 08-22-17, 10:09 PM

Don't sleep on Utah, this new qb they announced as starter yesterday by all accounts is ridiculously explosive. Any time a team captain and qb with above avg numbers like last year gets beaten out the new guy is usually a freak. Their defense should be just as good if not better than last year.

BigdaddyQH · 08-23-17, 10:57 AM

Utah loses their entire offensive line from last season except their RT. They must completely start from scratch in the defensive secondary, and that can lead to major problems in the pass happy Pac 12. Changing starting QB's without a decent line and no other real offensive threats is always dangerous. Utah regresses this season.

Riders23 · 08-23-17, 12:46 PM

We shall see I guess, just because a guy wasn't a starter last year doesn't mean they don't have experience/talent.

Ralphie Halves · 08-23-17, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by Riders23

Don't sleep on Utah, this new qb they announced as starter yesterday by all accounts is ridiculously explosive. Any time a team captain and qb with above avg numbers like last year gets beaten out the new guy is usually a freak. Their defense should be just as good if not better than last year.

I have a hard time backing a brand new QB in week 1. It's either fade or no-play for me. Utah could really use some explosiveness there though for once.

Originally posted by Riders23

We shall see I guess, just because a guy wasn't a starter last year doesn't mean they don't have experience/talent.

And agree, if you have a good coach and good system, returning starters are less of a big deal, because the new starters have put in time in a very good system. Realizing this takes a level of thinking most bettors don't have.

reigle9 · 08-23-17, 06:05 PM

i'm also on texas, ND, and troy

Mike2332 · 08-23-17, 07:32 PM

It took until yesterday to name this guy the starter over Troy Williams.....A new QB with a new O-Line with new WR's makes it very tough to put up enough points to cover 26 points................Since I posted the line has moved to 21.5....Still value there.

Mike2332 · 08-23-17, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by Riders23

We shall see I guess, just because a guy wasn't a starter last year doesn't mean they don't have experience/talent.

I disagree.......He was not a starter......Therefore he has no starting experience........He threw 7 passes last season............You cannot replicate real game action in practice....This particular kid may or may not be talented but he barely has any game experience....In this particular instance his O-line and WRS have very little experience.........It would be shocking if this offense did not struggle coming out of the gate.

Riders23 · 08-23-17, 10:29 PM

His Oline actually has a lot of starting experience and that is what I was referring to. There is a long history of QB's that come out of nowhere and tear it up so we will have to agree to disagree. I don't think you are actually understanding what I am saying. I played football through college, some people don't need game experience to have IT.

Mike2332 · 08-24-17, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Riders23

His Oline actually has a lot of starting experience and that is what I was referring to. There is a long history of QB's that come out of nowhere and tear it up so we will have to agree to disagree. I don't think you are actually understanding what I am saying. I played football through college, some people don't need game experience to have IT.

The offensive line has 27 career starts......That ranks them 123 out of 130 teams..........Individually and as a whole this unit has almost no experience........You are right, maybe this QB and O-line are all so talented that they do not need experience to succeed, anything is possible.......But very unlikely.

BigdaddyQH · 08-24-17, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Riders23

We shall see I guess, just because a guy wasn't a starter last year doesn't mean they don't have experience/talent.

It also doesn't mean that the team does have experience/talent. In Utah's case, they have too many underclassman starting ahead of seniors on offense, indicating that the offense is looking for talent. Utah was not a high scoring team last season, and they lose the vast majority of their starters. 5 of Utah's 9 wins last season were by 7 points or less. Utah can easily lose 4 out of it's 5 away games.

Mike2332 · 08-27-17, 10:19 AM

1-0 + 1U

Posted HAW / UMASS OVER on separate thread below

Moved here for record keeping purposes

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-football-betting/3419110-u-mass-hawaii-over.html

JMF2479 · 08-30-17, 07:27 AM

Nice 2-0 start to begin he season. Keep it up

clynnm17 · 08-30-17, 06:56 PM

I don't see temple scoring at all

Mike2332 · 09-01-17, 01:34 PM

YTD

2-2 -.02 U

OMG is AZ ST BAD

I knew they sucked but holy sh1t

Mike2332 · 09-01-17, 04:50 PM

ADD ON

U-MASS -2.5 VS Coastal Carolina. 1U

I give Costal Carolina props for their 10-2 season last year.....Had they come into the FBS last season I think they could have won 6 games but this year they are far less talented having lost so much talent and their bread and butter power running game will have to be completely replaced........

I thought U-Mass played good enough to win VS HAW last week.
just could not hang on in the 4th QTR......HAW will be giving everyone trouble this season with that offense.....

U-MASS is a much better team than their record indicated last season - they played 3 SEC teams and easily covered the spread in all ............They are on the come-up and are just flat out better than this C.C. squad IMO

Like them to win by at least 7

ADD ON

Colorado -3 -120 BT .5 PT 1 Unit

I think the betting public really overreacted to the COLST ORGST game ....This line was COL -7.5 before the COL ST game .......What happened to ORGST does not make COL less dangerous.

COL still beat COL ST 44-6 last season.......While the Buffalo's only have 3 starters coming back on "D" they do have 2 more guys with starting EXP including their star LB Derek McCartney.....Thy also have a couple JC guys..........This is not a bad defensive group of guys.

ON offense COL returns 9 starters on a team that AVG 31 PTS per game......QB Steve Montez will have a breakout season IMO - he is a dual threat guy that can really throw it........

No they ain't winning 10 again with this schedule........But I can damn sure see COLST hung over in this spot - going against a more talented team and losing by 3 or more.