Michigan has been a 4 point favorite over Florida for quite a while now. The line has not moved in most shops in Vegas at all. The same holds true for most off shore books. Now here is the thing that rather amazes me. Florida lost their best defensive player, Senior Safety Marcell Harris, for the entire season about a week ago. What makes this more devastating is the fact that Harris was the leading tackler on the team last season, and was one of only 3-4 (depending on who you read and believe) players returning on the Florida defense.
Obviously this is a major loss for Florida. Everyone agrees with that. Everyone except the Books that is. The line has not budged at all. As a matter of fact, in one Reno book, the line actually dropped from Michigan -4 1/2 to -4 AFTER the injury was reported. So what does this tell us?
It tells us that all of the B.S. that lines makers want to hand out is just that. B.S. They could care about who is playing and who is not. The ONLY thing they care about is finding a line that will get equal play on both sides of the number. Everything else they may say is nothing but icing on the cake. They will do as much as possible to keep the lines at their opening number so they do not get "middled". The object of the book is to try and get as many amateur players in as possible. The 21-40 year old "Macho" types that lose their tails on a regular basis. At the same time, they want to try and neutralize the knowledgeable players who win on a consistent basis. Now with losers outnumbering winners by about 3/1, so you would think that this would not be a major concern to the books, but the consistent winners wager much more per player than the losers do. Do not look for a lot of line movement this season. Perhaps there will be less line movement than ever before.
Obviously this is a major loss for Florida. Everyone agrees with that. Everyone except the Books that is. The line has not budged at all. As a matter of fact, in one Reno book, the line actually dropped from Michigan -4 1/2 to -4 AFTER the injury was reported. So what does this tell us?
It tells us that all of the B.S. that lines makers want to hand out is just that. B.S. They could care about who is playing and who is not. The ONLY thing they care about is finding a line that will get equal play on both sides of the number. Everything else they may say is nothing but icing on the cake. They will do as much as possible to keep the lines at their opening number so they do not get "middled". The object of the book is to try and get as many amateur players in as possible. The 21-40 year old "Macho" types that lose their tails on a regular basis. At the same time, they want to try and neutralize the knowledgeable players who win on a consistent basis. Now with losers outnumbering winners by about 3/1, so you would think that this would not be a major concern to the books, but the consistent winners wager much more per player than the losers do. Do not look for a lot of line movement this season. Perhaps there will be less line movement than ever before.
