Jay Edgar CFB Bowl Lines

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  • Jay Edgar
    SBR MVP
    • 03-08-06
    • 1576

    #1
    Jay Edgar CFB Bowl Lines
    These are purely on a yardage and point analysis that I've found works well in bowl season. Many of the lines are surprisingly close to the openers, but others (MINN-TEX TECH) bear no relation at all. I have had good success over the last few years using this as a handicapping guide -- the teams it points to have done well in the bowl games. I've bolded the 11 teams that these numbers point to most enthusiatically versus the opening numbers (at least the numbers that we have so far).


    302 TCU 3.5
    305 BYU 13
    308 RICE E
    312 SO FLORIDA E
    313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
    315 UTAH 4
    342 HAWAII 7
    402 CENT MICH 1
    404 UCLA 3
    405 OKLAHOMA ST 4
    408 RUTGERS 7.5
    410 CALIFORNIA 4
    412 CLEMSON 6
    413 MISSOURI 3
    416 SO CAROLINA 3
    418 MARYLAND 3
    419 MINNESOTA 6
    424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
    426 TEXAS 7
    427 VA TECH 11
    459 NEVADA 7
    462 AUBURN 5
    464 TENNESSEE 1 over PENN STATE
    465 WISCONSIN 5
    467 GEORGIA TECH E
    470 USC 3.5
    471 BOISE ST E
    473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
    476 LSU 7
    482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
    483 OHIO 3
    490 OHIO STATE 10
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 12-03-06, 11:13 PM.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    I do agree with your Neveda number bro.

    They may not have the talent level the Canes have, but they sure do play team ball. Then add all the troubles Miami is going thru right now, and that spells a good old fashion woodshed type game IMO
    Comment
    • pags11
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-18-05
      • 12264

      #3
      jay,

      I see you working making your own lines...atta kid...
      Comment
      • Jay Edgar
        SBR MVP
        • 03-08-06
        • 1576

        #4
        By the same method I apply to the bowl games, my opinion is that the wrong team is favored in the UMass-Montana game tonight. And it's a significant overlay -- as much or more than in any of the 32 bowl games.

        Even counting for home field, I make UMass 5.5 over Montana and AppState 8 over Youngstown.
        Last edited by Jay Edgar; 12-08-06, 12:45 PM.
        Comment
        • pags11
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-18-05
          • 12264

          #5
          nice call on UMass...I saw them play Navy earlier this year and was pretty impressed...
          Comment
          • babaoriley
            SBR MVP
            • 12-11-06
            • 2316

            #6
            what about Mass-AP. St? any insight?
            Comment
            • Jay Edgar
              SBR MVP
              • 03-08-06
              • 1576

              #7
              Treating it as a neutral site game, I get UMass by 3.
              Comment
              • babaoriley
                SBR MVP
                • 12-11-06
                • 2316

                #8
                Thanks Jay, I took UMass and the 3.5.
                Comment
                • Jay Edgar
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-08-06
                  • 1576

                  #9
                  Playing games 4 points off or more . . . .

                  Originally posted by Jay Edgar
                  302 TCU 3.5
                  No Ill +12
                  L 0-1, -1.05u

                  305 BYU 13
                  BYU -3
                  W 1-1, -0.05u

                  308 RICE E
                  312 SO FLORIDA E
                  313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
                  315 UTAH 4
                  342 HAWAII 7
                  402 CENT MICH 1
                  404 UCLA 3
                  405 OKLAHOMA ST 4
                  408 RUTGERS 7.5
                  410 CALIFORNIA 4
                  412 CLEMSON 6
                  413 MISSOURI 3
                  416 SO CAROLINA 3
                  418 MARYLAND 3
                  419 MINNESOTA 6
                  424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
                  426 TEXAS 7
                  427 VA TECH 11
                  459 NEVADA] 7
                  462 AUBURN 5
                  464 TENNESSEE 1
                  465 WISCONSIN 5
                  467 GEORGIA TECH E
                  470 USC 3.5
                  471 BOISE ST E
                  473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
                  476 LSU 7
                  482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
                  483 OHIO 3
                  490 OHIO STATE 10
                  Comment
                  • gummo
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-04-06
                    • 6297

                    #10
                    I've got Troy tonight too
                    Comment
                    • bigboydan
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 55420

                      #11
                      Add me to the Troy bandwagon as well fellas.

                      BTW, Very nice call on that BYU game last night Jay
                      Comment
                      • prickbeater101
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-07-06
                        • 363

                        #12
                        I like Rice tonite.
                        Comment
                        • Jay Edgar
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-08-06
                          • 1576

                          #13
                          E Carolina and San Jose on Saturday.

                          On SJSU, the +4.5 and +172 that I have is long gone, but 3 and 140 is better than nothing.


                          Originally posted by Jay Edgar
                          302 TCU 3.5
                          No Ill +12
                          L 0-1, -1.05u

                          305 BYU 13
                          BYU -3
                          W 1-1, -0.05u

                          308 RICE E
                          TROY +6
                          W 2-1, +0.95u

                          312 SO FLORIDA E
                          313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
                          315 UTAH 4
                          342 HAWAII 7
                          402 CENT MICH 1
                          404 UCLA 3
                          405 OKLAHOMA ST 4
                          408 RUTGERS 7.5
                          410 CALIFORNIA 4
                          412 CLEMSON 6
                          413 MISSOURI 3
                          416 SO CAROLINA 3
                          418 MARYLAND 3
                          419 MINNESOTA 6
                          424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
                          426 TEXAS 7
                          427 VA TECH 11
                          459 NEVADA] 7
                          462 AUBURN 5
                          464 TENNESSEE 1
                          465 WISCONSIN 5
                          467 GEORGIA TECH E
                          470 USC 3.5
                          471 BOISE ST E
                          473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
                          476 LSU 7
                          482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
                          483 OHIO 3
                          490 OHIO STATE 10
                          Comment
                          • pags11
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-18-05
                            • 12264

                            #14
                            GL jay...
                            Comment
                            • gummo
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-04-06
                              • 6297

                              #15
                              Nice call on SJSU ML, Jay.
                              Comment
                              • bigboydan
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 08-10-05
                                • 55420

                                #16
                                San Jose St. looked like stealing today, and surprisingly it cashed with ease, and we both know that usually never happens that way.

                                Congrats Jay
                                Comment
                                • Jay Edgar
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-08-06
                                  • 1576

                                  #17
                                  Thanks.

                                  I know it's easy to say with hindsight, but I really felt good about SJSU, Troy, and BYU going into their games, and I had major trepidation that No. Ill. and ECU would lay eggs.

                                  Looking ahead, I'm excited about VaTech, WISC, and Boise most of all, then Wake and Missouri.
                                  Comment
                                  • hawk 5
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-12-06
                                    • 3982

                                    #18
                                    Really like virg tech game.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jay Edgar
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-08-06
                                      • 1576

                                      #19
                                      Agreed, Hawk.

                                      Oh -- and Nevada also. Can't forget them.
                                      Comment
                                      • Jay Edgar
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-08-06
                                        • 1576

                                        #20
                                        Update

                                        Good showing ATS.

                                        Don't want to talk about the ML plays this week.
                                        (MO, MN, Navy, NV)

                                        PLAYING ALL GAMES WITH 3 pt DIFFERENTIAL
                                        Originally posted by Jay Edgar
                                        302 TCU 3.5
                                        No Ill +12
                                        L 0-1, -1.05u


                                        305 BYU 13
                                        BYU -3
                                        W 1-1, -0.05u


                                        308 RICE E
                                        TROY +6
                                        W 2-1, +0.95u


                                        312 SO FLORIDA E
                                        ECU +5.5
                                        L 2-2, -0.10u


                                        313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
                                        SJSU +3
                                        W 3-2, +0.90u


                                        315 UTAH 4

                                        342 HAWAII 7

                                        402 CENT MICH 1
                                        MTSU +8.5
                                        L 3-3, -0.15u


                                        404 UCLA 3

                                        405 OKLAHOMA ST 4

                                        408 RUTGERS 7.5

                                        410 CALIFORNIA 4

                                        412 CLEMSON 6
                                        KY +11.5
                                        W 4-3, +0.85u


                                        413 MISSOURI 3
                                        MO +3
                                        W 5-3, +1.85u


                                        416 SO CAROLINA 3

                                        418 MARYLAND 3
                                        MD +1.5
                                        W 6-3, +2.85u


                                        419 MINNESOTA 6
                                        MINN +8
                                        W 7-3, +3.85 u


                                        424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
                                        NAVY +7.5
                                        W 8-3, +4.85u


                                        426 TEXAS 7

                                        427 VA TECH 11
                                        VA TECH -3
                                        L 8-4, +3.80u


                                        459 NEVADA 7
                                        NEVADA +3.5
                                        W 9-4, +4.80u


                                        462 AUBURN 5

                                        464 TENNESSEE 1

                                        465 WISCONSIN 5

                                        467 GEORGIA TECH E

                                        470 USC 3.5

                                        471 BOISE ST E

                                        473 WAKE FOREST 2.5

                                        476 LSU 7

                                        482 W MICHIGAN 2.5

                                        483 OHIO 3

                                        490 OHIO STATE 10
                                        Last edited by Jay Edgar; 12-31-06, 11:12 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • bigboydan
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 08-10-05
                                          • 55420

                                          #21
                                          That double dip of losers with Mo. and Minny ML's were nightmares for sure Jay.
                                          Comment
                                          • gummo
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-04-06
                                            • 6297

                                            #22
                                            Nice research Jay. 4-0 in the early games today. Hope it keeps up with USC and Boise
                                            Comment
                                            • Jay Edgar
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-08-06
                                              • 1576

                                              #23
                                              Thanks, Gummo.

                                              I missed the Boise-OU finish!!
                                              (Too busy typing in the next room!)

                                              6-0 today.
                                              12 of last 13.
                                              15-4 for bowl season so far.


                                              Wake, WesternMich and Ohio are left (and maybe OSU as well, if -7 -105 or better can be had).

                                              Originally posted by Jay Edgar
                                              302 TCU 3.5
                                              No Ill +12
                                              L 0-1, -1.05u


                                              305 BYU 13
                                              BYU -3
                                              W 1-1, -0.05u


                                              308 RICE E
                                              TROY +6
                                              W 2-1, +0.95u


                                              312 SO FLORIDA E
                                              ECU +5.5
                                              L 2-2, -0.10u


                                              313 SAN JOSE ST 2.5
                                              SJSU +3
                                              W 3-2, +0.90u


                                              315 UTAH 4

                                              342 HAWAII 7

                                              402 CENT MICH 1
                                              MTSU +8.5
                                              L 3-3, -0.15u


                                              404 UCLA 3

                                              405 OKLAHOMA ST 4

                                              408 RUTGERS 7.5

                                              410 CALIFORNIA 4

                                              412 CLEMSON 6
                                              KY +11.5
                                              W 4-3, +0.85u


                                              413 MISSOURI 3
                                              MO +3
                                              W 5-3, +1.85u


                                              416 SO CAROLINA 3

                                              418 MARYLAND 3
                                              MD +1.5
                                              W 6-3, +2.85u


                                              419 MINNESOTA 6
                                              MINN +8
                                              W 7-3, +3.85 u


                                              424 BOSTON COLL 4.5
                                              NAVY +7.5
                                              W 8-3, +4.85u


                                              426 TEXAS 7

                                              427 VA TECH 11
                                              VA TECH -3
                                              L 8-4, +3.80u


                                              459 NEVADA 7
                                              NEVADA +3.5
                                              W 9-4, +4.80u


                                              462 AUBURN 5
                                              AUBURN -2
                                              W 10-4, +5.80u


                                              464 TENNESSEE 1
                                              PENN STATE +4
                                              W 11-4, +6.80u


                                              465 WISCONSIN 5
                                              WISC +2
                                              W 12-4, +7.80u


                                              467 GEORGIA TECH E
                                              GT +10
                                              W 13-4, +8.80u


                                              470 USC 3.5
                                              USC +2.5
                                              W 14-4, +9.80u


                                              471 BOISE ST E
                                              BSU +7
                                              W 15-4, +10.80u


                                              473 WAKE FOREST 2.5
                                              WAKE +10
                                              L 15-5, +9.75u


                                              476 LSU 7

                                              482 W MICHIGAN 2.5
                                              WMU +7.5
                                              W 16-5, +10.75u


                                              483 OHIO 3

                                              490 OHIO STATE 10
                                              Last edited by Jay Edgar; 01-07-07, 03:59 AM.
                                              Comment
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