surprise teams - good and bad... and i'll post some screens

[gojetsgomoxies]

thought i'd post some general comments from a bunch of my reading so far.... i've started to focus on big 5 conference teams as if i become very good at handicapping their seasons then i can get much more $$$$$ down on them than teams like Idaho or MTSU.... i'll start it small but add things as i see interesting comments

bad teams i've seen good comments about - some bad comments too but they're bad teams already.

rutgers - 2nd year coach should have much better handle on things. some very good transfers at skills positions although i gather they lost their semi-stud WR transfer to injury.

maryland - great transfer QB.... apparently amazing recruiting class for maryland - i realize they may not make good on-field contributions but should be good for programs energy.

k-state - can't remember all the details but apparently played young with good results last year. very highly regarded QB.

kansas - i feel like charlie brown kicking the football and missing over and over again....... big talent improvement. better results late last year. first team all big 12 DE returning.

NC state - can't remember the details.

arizona state - excellent coach. should be improved talent.... like this play more than arizona RichRod.


teams might move down or traditionally good teams might stay down,.

illinois - not such a good first season for lovie and lost two DE's fairly early in NFL draft.

UCLA - seems to have imploded and lost alot of players to graduation. stud QB coming back but not everyone sold on rosen.

SOME MORE LATER TODAY....

[Ralphie Halves]

You can get as much $$$$ down on Idaho and MTSU as you can the top teams. None of us have the level of money to where that can't be true. So no worries there.

Agree on KSt and NC State. The details in general are good coach + improving team.

Rutgers, can't see it. They not only lost, they lost terribly over and over again. Can't recover from that in a year. Their recruiting was better than expected, but that's not coming into play this year.

The big quest for me is to find that team like Idaho, or like Houston for the first 6 or so games (covered every time IIRC, and I was on most of them). There's always at least one. But a lot of times, they're smaller programs that catch fire quickly, (Buffalo and Temple from years past for example), so you just gotta pay attention. If KSt or NCST do it, it won't be much of a surprise, and the books should catch up to it rather quickly.

[gojetsgomoxies]

eastern michigan and idaho both had under-radar stud QB recruits who could have played alot of other places...... and they did well as QB's as freshmen or soph's but it was so under-the-radar.

wyoming has amazing QB but he's top 5 in some 2018 mock drafts so not under-the-radar.......

gotta find some more young QB's who could have gone to much better schools..... MTSU, but i think he's discovered too.

i'm gonna check teams that played young last year....... i realize it will have high correlation to returning starters but maybe i'll pick up on something.

also, gonna look at teams that finished much better or worse 2nd half of season.... last 5 to be specific.

[BigdaddyQH]

Ralphie, some of us DO have the "level" of money that you speak about. In here, most people wager air, so it really does not matter. As far as this post goes, Illinois was 3-9 S/U, 4-7 ATS last season. They will not get too much worse than that, if at all. You also put way too much weight on the QB position. There are not 20 "STUD" QB's around.

I suggest that you have a lot of work ahead of you. The first thing you had better be able to do is understand the difference between S/U wagering and ATS Wagering. Kansas was 5-6 ATS last season. Tell me why that means absolutely nothing this season. Idaho was 9-4, 9-3 ATS last season so they will surprise no one. Remember, you are going against a computer that has about 1000 times the capability as we do. Start early.

[Ralphie Halves]

Stating that a team and a QB surprised everyone last year doesn't mean anything for this year. But trying to discover it all now is a waste of time. Watch games.

Matt Linehan never transferred as far as I know. Roback did, but so did Kenny Hill who was much higher touted, but disappointed. Will Grier transferring will be really interesting to watch IMO. He made Florida's passing game relevant for the first time since Tebow, but got suspended and for some reason didn't stay. But maybe he's not a good fit elsewhere. Gotta watch games.

[BigdaddyQH]

Stating that a team and a QB surprised everyone last year doesn't mean anything for this year. But trying to discover it all now is a waste of time. Watch games.

Matt Linehan never transferred as far as I know. Roback did, but so did Kenny Hill who was much higher touted, but disappointed. Will Grier transferring will be really interesting to watch IMO. He made Florida's passing game relevant for the first time since Tebow, but got suspended and for some reason didn't stay. But maybe he's not a good fit elsewhere. Gotta watch games.

I agree with Ralphie here, and with all of the games that are televised on a weekly basis (20 alone in week 1 and that does not include local broadcasts) there is really no excuse not to see every Power 5 team at least 3 times a season. Some teams will have every game televised. I can tape a game and then watch that game in it's entirety in about 25 minutes (for a game with 180 plays in it). Many take less time.