Are Preseason Mags Any Good?

BigdaddyQH · 06-28-17, 07:22 PM

Mags Cont:

SEC East:
Florida 6-2 Tennessee 4-4 Georgia 4-4 Kentucky 4-4 South Carolina 3-5 Vanderbilt 3-5 Missouri 2-6

Picks:
Athlon: Tenn, Ga, Fla, Ky, Van, Mo, SC. Points 8
ESPN: Tenn, Ga, Fla, SC, Mo, Ky, Van, Points 11
Lindy: Tenn, Ga, Fla, SC, Mo. Ky, Van, Points 11
Steele: Tenn, Ga, Fla, Mo, Ky, SC, Van Points 9

SEC West:
Alabama 8-0 Auburn 5-3 LSU 5-3 Texas A&M 4-4 Arkansas 3-5 Mississippi State 3-5 Ole Miss 2-6

Picks:
Athlon: Ala, LSU, Miss, Ark, A&M, Aub, MSt. Points 12
ESPN: LSU, Ala, Miss, A&M, Aub, MSt, Ark, Points 13
Lindy: Ala, LSU, Miss, Aub, A&M, Ark, MSt. Points 10
Steele: LSU, Ala, Miss, Aub, Ark, A&M, MSt, Points 12

Total SEC Points:
Athlon, 20.
ESPN, 24,
Lindy's, 21
Steele, 21

BigdaddyQH · 06-28-17, 07:27 PM

Mags Cont:

SEC East:
Florida 6-2 Tennessee 4-4 Georgia 4-4 Kentucky 4-4 South Carolina 3-5 Vanderbilt 3-5 Missouri 2-6

Picks:
Athlon: Tenn, Ga, Fla, Ky, Van, Mo, SC. Points 8
ESPN: Tenn, Ga, Fla, SC, Mo, Ky, Van, Points 11
Lindy: Tenn, Ga, Fla, SC, Mo. Ky, Van, Points 11
Steele: Tenn, Ga, Fla, Mo, Ky, SC, Van Points 9

SEC West:
Alabama 8-0 Auburn 5-3 LSU 5-3 Texas A&M 4-4 Arkansas 3-5 Mississippi State 3-5 Ole Miss 2-6

Picks:
Athlon: Ala, LSU, Miss, Ark, A&M, Aub, MSt. Points 12
ESPN: LSU, Ala, Miss, A&M, Aub, MSt, Ark, Points 13
Lindy: Ala, LSU, Miss, Aub, A&M, Ark, MSt. Points 10
Steele: LSU, Ala, Miss, Aub, Ark, A&M, MSt, Points 12

Total SEC Points:
Athlon, 20.
ESPN, 24,
Lindy's, 21
Steele, 21

Total points:

Athlon, 78
ESPN, 80
Lindy, 85
Steele 80

Buffalo Nickle · 06-28-17, 08:09 PM

You don't judge a magazine by the predictions they make. You judge them by the information they give you.

Yes. They are pretty good. You will be better informed on your bets if you read Athlon or another college football preview than if you don't.

Nobody is any good at predicting the final results. But it is well documented that pre-season predictions are better indicators of post-season performance than the actual final ratings.

Ralphie Halves · 06-29-17, 04:25 AM

Yeah, I'm not sure how many real CFB bettors would care about ratings from a magazine. Does ESPN use that trash ESPN Power Ratings system like they use to predict games?

It's like good stock pickers looking to the USA Today for advice. Doesn't happen for a reason.

Buffalo Nickle · 06-29-17, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

Yeah, I'm not sure how many real CFB bettors would care about ratings from a magazine. Does ESPN use that trash ESPN Power Ratings system like they use to predict games?

It's like good stock pickers looking to the USA Today for advice. Doesn't happen for a reason.

ESPN FPI? That is the best power ratings system going. May not be useful for picking games ATS but is the best at putting teams in proper order and way better than AP Top 25..

BigdaddyQH · 06-29-17, 12:18 PM

You two are missing the point. Every one of these rags contains the same information in 90% of the cases. They make the same pics in over 50% of the cases. That is totally worthless. These rags are totally worthless, just like ESPN's alleged "power ratings" are. Why are you into College Football to begin with? To see a bunch of athletes who, for the most part, should not even be in college, run around and make fools out of themselves? To correctly guess the number of Black players who will be kicked off the team for some utterly stupid act that they do? To see who the next NFL bust will be? If you are, you are in the wrong business because no one who knows what he/she is doing could give a caca about that. I am in this business for one reason and one reason only. To make money. I am not the only person around doing that, but the fact of the matter is that for every one of us that does make money on a constant basis, there are 9 others out there that do not. Most, like most of the fools in here, lose. If you guys are posting in here, my guess is that you either want to make money, or just have to see your name in print, like so many desperate people in here do. Paying attention JJ?

Last year I picked 4 out of 8 Division Champions. Counting the Big 12, I picked 3 out of 5 Conference champions.I missed on Penn State, Clemson, Va. Tech, and Colorado. Counting the Big 12 as a Division (everyone picked OU) Athlon and Lindy's went 3-6, while ESPN and Steele (the two that are so desperate that they share information now) went 2-7 overall. Now Buffalo stated that you do not buy a magazine for the predictions it makes, but rather for the information it gives you. True or not (and I think that it is a bit of both reasons), where do these magazines come up with their predictions? From the information it gathers about each team. So since they are so similar, why pay nearly 13 bucks for Steele's rag when you can get more accurate information from Athlon for 10 bucks? Why buy any mag at all when you can get the same information for free on line? The bottom line is this. The people who do their homework and come up with successful formulas that include ALL aspects of College Football (including the mental aspect) are the ones who succeed over the years. I have seen very few in here. Very few.

Ralphie Halves · 06-29-17, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle

ESPN FPI? That is the best power ratings system going. May not be useful for picking games ATS but is the best at putting teams in proper order and way better than AP Top 25..

Not sure. Whatever it is they show on the bottom line that predicts the %chance of one team winning over the other. If you haven't seen it before, just pay attention to it this year, they'll show it a lot.

Ralphie Halves · 06-29-17, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

You two are missing the point. Every one of these rags contains the same information in 90% of the cases. They make the same pics in over 50% of the cases. That is totally worthless. These rags are totally worthless, just like ESPN's alleged "power ratings" are. Why are you into College Football to begin with? To see a bunch of athletes who, for the most part, should not even be in college, run around and make fools out of themselves? To correctly guess the number of Black players who will be kicked off the team for some utterly stupid act that they do? To see who the next NFL bust will be? If you are, you are in the wrong business because no one who knows what he/she is doing could give a caca about that. I am in this business for one reason and one reason only. To make money. I am not the only person around doing that, but the fact of the matter is that for every one of us that does make money on a constant basis, there are 9 others out there that do not. Most, like most of the fools in here, lose. If you guys are posting in here, my guess is that you either want to make money, or just have to see your name in print, like so many desperate people in here do. Paying attention JJ?

Last year I picked 4 out of 8 Division Champions. Counting the Big 12, I picked 3 out of 5 Conference champions.I missed on Penn State, Clemson, Va. Tech, and Colorado. Counting the Big 12 as a Division (everyone picked OU) Athlon and Lindy's went 3-6, while ESPN and Steele (the two that are so desperate that they share information now) went 2-7 overall. Now Buffalo stated that you do not buy a magazine for the predictions it makes, but rather for the information it gives you. True or not (and I think that it is a bit of both reasons), where do these magazines come up with their predictions? From the information it gathers about each team. So since they are so similar, why pay nearly 13 bucks for Steele's rag when you can get more accurate information from Athlon for 10 bucks? Why buy any mag at all when you can get the same information for free on line? The bottom line is this. The people who do their homework and come up with successful formulas that include ALL aspects of College Football (including the mental aspect) are the ones who succeed over the years. I have seen very few in here. Very few.

- Athlon is a well put-together magazine that makes for great toilet reading. The end.

- I do my capping by watching games and following coaches. I've already mentioned this.

- Your insecurity is off the charts. You have done nothing but talk about how great you are and how you're super connected with these imaginary betting circles, and you attack people for no reason. Nobody believes any of it. Take this year to make an SBR spreadsheet and show everyone what's really up. And talk less, seriously. It's only hurt your cause, whatever that cause is.

Points 4 and 5 in particular.

BigdaddyQH · 06-29-17, 05:10 PM

Ralphie, if you and the others in here who think they know what they are talking about would have taken the time to look at my last years spreadsheet, you have seen that I hit at a little over 58%. Had you bothered to look at my post season spread sheet, you would have ween that I went 16-8 which should tell you two things. #1. I am smart enough NOT to wager on every game just because it happens to be on TV. #2. I am damn good at what I do.

I have a spreadsheet started for the 2017 Season. It covers my early plays. I keep it very simple. Every wager on a favorite is to win 100 units. Every wager on a dog is for 100 units to win 100+ units. Here is an example of what you may see if you took the time to look at it.
6/01/2017 01:25 PM 10/7. Air Force @ Navy +15.5 NCAAF -110 Southpoint 110 100. To explain this, you see the date and time I posted this onto my sheet (06/01/2017 01:25 pm), the date of the game (10/7), the team I wagered on (Air Force. I always list the team I am wagering on first) where the game is being played and against who (@ Navy), the line (+15.5), the Vig (-110), the Name of the casino where the wager was placed (Southpoint), the amount I wagered (110 Units), and the amount I can win (100 Units). There are also total wins for the year which are pretty self explanatory. To see the spreadsheet so far, go to:

http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

Now here is how this is going to work. You and all of the other hotshots who think they are better than I am will do the exact same thing. Post a spreadsheet. If you do not, you will be branded a coward and I will continue to call you out every time I get a chance to. Now as far as you thinking that you know more than I do about College Football wagering, put that idea to rest right now. You do not. You do not have near the experience that I have in this game. You do not have near the Information available that I have. You apparently do ot have near the time available to place your wagers that I do. Everyone knows that you either wager early or late into the wagering cycle, but a lot of money can be made in the middle of the cycle, especially on totals.

Ralphie, you seem to be one of the few people in here that can actually have an intelligent conversation about College Football. Do not ruin it by going off on me. I do what I want, when I want, because I CAN. I have the power, finances, and the ability to do so. If I were you I would take advantage of this and try to learn something. That is how I started in the late 60's in Vegas. I watched the very best in action and learned from them. These guys were the best of the best. Much better than anyone or anything (for the computer geeks out here) out here today. I learned by asking a lot of questions and respecting these gentlemen. Even in here, as bad as many of these alleged players are I read every word they spit out because they occasionally say something that I may have overlooked. You are never too old or too good to stop learning.

Ralphie Halves · 06-30-17, 01:31 AM

It doesn't say how many wins you have at the bottom. Is there any way to show that?

And if it's a good sheet, then throw it in people's faces when they doubt you. All the other lip service is useless, and only works against you. Just letting you know.

I'm entering the WillHill contest this year, so I'll make a spreadsheet with those picks and my win totals. It forces you to make 7 picks a week in the contest, which I don't like, but I feel like I should still do pretty well.

BigdaddyQH · 06-30-17, 10:45 AM

My spreadsheet will show you the win-loss total as soon as they become available. As far as serious wagering is concerned, contest are not an accurate display of how good you may or may not be. The reasons are simple. Other than a possible initial buy in, there is no more money at stake out of your pocket. That makes it a lot easier to make picks, knowing that you basically have nothing to lose other than some contest which you have already bought into. It also opens the door for the suiciders, who will make ridiculous picks just to try and get ahead in the contest. They may luck out and do just that. If you fall behind in the pool, you will more than likely make choices you would not normally make just to try and get even.

Being forced to make a certain number of picks every week is a loser. I do not blame you for not liking that rule. It is to your great disadvantage because it is forcing you to make a certain number of picks no matter what the match ups for that week look like. That is forcing you to make at least 169 picks during the season and that is a sure fire loser if you have to wager on that many games individually.

I rarely wager on that many games per week. Some weeks I do not wager at all. Sometimes the best wager is the one you do NOT make. REmember a successful gambler not only wins, but does not lose. 10-2 is much better than 10-7. A seasoned gambler knows that. That is why you will rarely see that in here. No seasoned gamblers. Many seasoned losers.

If you want to use your 7 weekly picks, that is your choice, but it is rather meaningless. Show me a spreadsheet of games that you have actually wagered on, not some contest that requires just one initial investment. I have wagered on every game you see on my spreadsheet. That is what I am interested in. GL in your contest.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-30-17, 10:59 PM

I think history shows that Steele produces a ton of information. But he couldn't handicap his way out of a paper bag.

Utterly clueless on how to process information into useful form for handicapping purposes. He doesn't even claim to be a good capper, btw.

Memento · 07-02-17, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

Given the spreadsheet image.....Holmes Community College or Delta State? Where did you go to school?

Ralphie Halves · 07-04-17, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

If you want to use your 7 weekly picks, that is your choice, but it is rather meaningless. Show me a spreadsheet of games that you have actually wagered on, not some contest that requires just one initial investment. I have wagered on every game you see on my spreadsheet. That is what I am interested in. GL in your contest.

What I think I'm going to do this year is just make a spreadsheet for my win totals and contest picks. I want it do do well of course, but I'm not looking to sell anything or seek validation from others. If the results aren't optimal, then they aren't optimal.

But man did I kill it last year. Hoping to ride that momentum. Should still do well.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-05-17, 02:35 PM

not sure exactly how much incredible insight pre-season magazines are.......... BUT, where are you going to aggregate returning starters and other important analytics, if not for preseason magazines.. i know phil steele has it for free but he's a magazine - basically - and maybe at least one other place.

but for $8 these magazines - all of them - are great value if you are interested in college FB betting... also the different magazines seem to have different strengths/weakness in terms of their team coverage sections.

as per coaches, i would love to see some analysis where the old talent doesn't fit with the new coach at all. and of course the new coach is supposed to win in 2 years maximum. i do think schools have become tired of repeatedly paying huge buyouts to coaches for 2 years of mediocrity. so maybe they've learned and now give coaches 3 to 4 years which seems more fair.

Ralphie Halves · 07-05-17, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

as per coaches, i would love to see some analysis where the old talent doesn't fit with the new coach at all. and of course the new coach is supposed to win in 2 years maximum. i do think schools have become tired of repeatedly paying huge buyouts to coaches for 2 years of mediocrity. so maybe they've learned and now give coaches 3 to 4 years which seems more fair.

On the first part, there really isn't any way you can measure that. Kids that age are pliable enough to where a good coach can deprogram an old way of doing things into a new way.

And I don't think even the craziest programs have a 2-year maximum. You can still get fired if you show you don't know what you're really doing or have scandals, or just lose horribly -- but all that's pretty rare. Even the most suck-ass coaches typically get at least 3-4 years so they can get their recruits in and run their system. Even IMO the wackest FBS coaches going right now (Paul Haynes and Doug Martin) are entering their 5th and 4th years, respectively.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-06-17, 12:38 PM

Ralphie, thx.. i was thinking of size in terms of talent not matching coach. but there are few run-dominant programs these days so probably most teams/coaches are looking for the same thing and don't get stuck with mismatched talent ........ where i was specifically thinking was coaches that run very specific schemes that do well at underdog programs but then they coach same way at dominant program even though they have superior talent. RichRod might be an example or Jeff Tedford - although jeff's later experience i reference was canadian football.

i would have to check but i do think AD's have got much more patient recently.... and maybe they were more patient than i think historically...... i do think that many programs have had to really come to terms with what their baseline team's record will be. if you don't have mega in-state talent then i'm not sure why 7-5 or even 8-4 isn't good enough as average season. again, i might be pessimistic and a few programs have made it happen without much in-state talent - oregon (nike), boise. having a hard time thinking of a 3rd team. maybe oklahoma...... deep south they seem to dip into each others' talent pool and florida has so many players.

Buffalo Nickle · 07-06-17, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i would have to check but i do think AD's have got much more patient recently.... and maybe they were more patient than i think historically...... i do think that many programs have had to really come to terms with what their baseline team's record will be.

That will never happen. California just fired Dykes after he turned them around. Rodriguez may get fired for a couple of bad years and a lot of injuries. Oregon canned their coach straight away. Texas really should have given Strong another year. UTSA fired their coach after one bad year and he built the program from zero.

Ralphie Halves · 07-06-17, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle

That will never happen. California just fired Dykes after he turned them around. Rodriguez may get fired for a couple of bad years and a lot of injuries. Oregon canned their coach straight away. Texas really should have given Strong another year. UTSA fired their coach after one bad year and he built the program from zero.

Like I said, 4 yrs is the new baseline, and that seems okay. Not sure why Cal fired Dykes after one bad season, but he lasted 4 years. Same for Helfrich. Nothing too crazy about that IMO. Programs also look at how well your recruiting classes are and factor that in as a way to see the potential future. Helfrich's recruiting was light years behind Chip Kelley's.

Strong was 3 years, but that was pretty extreme. Texas still thinks it's 12 years ago, and they should be competing for the national championship. They're in that same category of entitled delusional programs as Nebraska, Miami, Tennessee. Plus there are outside influences everywhere in that program constantly in your ear -- and very powerful ones at that.

RichRod on the other hand has been at Az way too long. His teams stopped playing hard for him years ago. Last season was no surprise.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-06-17, 09:14 PM

i was thinking RichRod at Michigan not Arizona although he did well at Arizona early as did Graham at ASU but they've both regressed really badly...

did Dykes really turn around Cal? i think he had some success but not really sustained. Tedford was much much better and i think took them from a much lower level. and not sure how much the success Dykes did have had to do with having Goff at QB. somewhere like Cal is a tough job i think.

shouldn't texas be one of the perenial top programs in USA? i see it as completely different than nebraska and tennessee. miami is interesting. is there any reason that it shouldn't be as successful as USC? i will note that miami was good for many years when USC was mediocre for a top school. it's hard to believe how long USC was medicore for (sorry, bad grammar), seems like it was 20 years but can it have been that long?

gojetsgomoxies · 07-06-17, 09:16 PM

i think one big factor as to new coach's patience is whether they have a bad loss........ i can't remember exactly but i think texas either lost or needed last minute score to beat kansas. it's just hard to justify that to the fan/booster/alumni base.

Buffalo Nickle · 07-06-17, 10:07 PM

There is no more patience than there has ever been and even less. Ron Turner got the boot at Florida International one year after beating UCF and playing tough against Louisville. The Florida Atlantic guy was supposed to be a good recruiter and they did not even give him a chance to play with his players. The Georgia State coach also build a program from nothing and got fired one year after going to a bowl.

If Rodriguez gets fired, I would bet he has a better record 4 years out at his next school than Arizona does without him.

Buffalo Nickle · 07-06-17, 10:15 PM

They were happy with Dykes but he did not like the budget there and was always rumored for other jobs and they got fed up and fired him.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-06-17, 11:10 PM

Buffalo, thanks for the excellent insight

... those are some crazy smaller school firings that i wasn't aware of.

arizona is a funny program........ Pac12 is my conference but Arizona is a team i never thought about much for many years. RichRod definitely gave it some prominence and success but then they regressed pretty badly

one of the worst big school firings ever had to be glenn mason at minnesota. talk about taking that school to a whole new level and then getting fired because he couldn't take them to michigan/OHS level. and they've never really got back to that level again - at most for one season

Ralphie Halves · 07-07-17, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle

The Georgia State coach also build a program from nothing and got fired one year after going to a bowl.

If Rodriguez gets fired, I would bet he has a better record 4 years out at his next school than Arizona does without him.

Trent Miles was at GSU 4 years at least. He went to a bowl in year 3, with a lot of players from the coach before (don't recall who), then in year 4 when it was mostly his guys, they just couldn't hang. Maybe not reason to fire a guy, but I don't disparage it.

RichRod, who knows. There have been rumors going around for awhile that his system has been figured out, and it would make sense. I wouldn't hire him, even if I was the AD of a small school, but yeah, it will be interesting to see. He's been such a good bet-against in spots for me, I'd hate to see him go.

qwertvt · 07-07-17, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle

The Georgia State coach also build a program from nothing and got fired one year after going to a bowl.

Actually Trent Miles, the coach recently fired, didn't build this program. He had one average season.

The original coach was able to get to the FBS and secure funding for new facilities.

Trent Miles' record 9-38

Season 1 - 0-12
Season 2 - 1-11
Season 3 - 6-7 (lost bowl game)
Season 4 - 2-8 (fired in season)

If I went to GA ST or was a fan, I think I would call for his firing as well.

Ralphie Halves · 07-07-17, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

did Dykes really turn around Cal? i think he had some success but not really sustained. Tedford was much much better and i think took them from a much lower level. and not sure how much the success Dykes did have had to do with having Goff at QB. somewhere like Cal is a tough job i think.

shouldn't texas be one of the perenial top programs in USA? i see it as completely different than nebraska and tennessee. miami is interesting. is there any reason that it shouldn't be as successful as USC? i will note that miami was good for many years when USC was mediocre for a top school. it's hard to believe how long USC was medicore for (sorry, bad grammar), seems like it was 20 years but can it have been that long?

On Cal -- I guess they just knew where their ceiling was with a guy who could never get his teams to play defense. I still like Coach Dykes, I think he can still be a force and I love what he did at La Tech, he just needs to figure out the other side of the ball. Contrary to popular belief, you gotta play SOME defense in the Pac-12 to be amongst the top teams. IIRC, he had Clancy Pendergast, one of the best in the biz as his DC, but still couldn't stop anyone. That tells me he can't recruit defense either. I'm changing my tune about him as I write this, LOL. He won me a ton of money back in the La Tech days, so I guess i just can't quit him.

I agree, Texas should do better, all things considered. Just goes to show you what happens when you hold onto a coach who the game has passed by so many years ago (Brown). So much innovation in game schemes in the last 15 years, it can pass you by quick, and it did. He was still getting 4 and 5 star guys, but programs like A&M, OKSt and even Houston were doing so much more with the talent they had because they were innovative. I used to give Bob Stoops shit for being a dinosaur, but to his credit, he never let his team fall off all that much.

Ralphie Halves · 07-07-17, 12:37 AM

Liking the talk in here BTW. This is the sweet spot -- the time when there's build up and only the good CFB minds are here.

2 months from now, the degens will flood the board with their terrible plays, one sentence worth of insight, and pointless name-calling.

Enjoy the ride.

Buffalo Nickle · 07-07-17, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

Buffalo, thanks for the excellent insight

... those are some crazy smaller school firings that i wasn't aware of.

arizona is a funny program........ Pac12 is my conference but Arizona is a team i never thought about much for many years. RichRod definitely gave it some prominence and success but then they regressed pretty badly

one of the worst big school firings ever had to be glenn mason at minnesota. talk about taking that school to a whole new level and then getting fired because he couldn't take them to michigan/OHS level. and they've never really got back to that level again - at most for one season

Glen Mason was the most idiotic firing ever. Fired the guy because Texas Tech came from way down at half in a bowl game and destroyed the program. Hard to believe nobody ever hired the guy. All he did was win at tough places.

Only firing worse was Houston firing their basketball coach after losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament two years in a row and then having 12 consecutive losing seasons.

With Georgia State still pretty harsh. Very hard to expect a program like that to do well. In any case, it shows there is not a lot of patience these days.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-07-17, 01:57 PM

i am very interested in RichRod - read his book, which was good but i'm sure biased. i don't know that much about him football-wise. it seems like arizona's defense is very small. and his offense is unorthodox.. so i do wonder about guys who had huge success with lesser talent - WV - and then to go to a place that has great talent - michigan. i would think they shouldn't be using the same underdog schemes they used to lesser school. more smash mouth "we have better talent" football.

i think RichRod will be a great lesser school hire..... just get better recruits to the school and if necessary turn over football operations and strategy to someone younger........ tedford hire at fresno is great for same reason although i'm very positively biased on tedford.

i think old name guy paired with young football mind as co-HC's - whether official or not - is great model for lesser programs.

Ralphie Halves · 07-07-17, 03:03 PM

It's gonna be a tough go for RichRod after he leaves Zona. He makes way too much, and isn't going to go for a sub 1mil contract, which is the level he should be in all honesty after two giant failures like that.

His best bet, and what I think he'll do is get on as an OC with a big team then try to parlay that into a better job later and hope by then people have forgotten the past. Worked for Lane Kiffin (kind of).

crackerjack · 07-07-17, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Ralphie, if you and the others in here who think they know what they are talking about would have taken the time to look at my last years spreadsheet, you have seen that I hit at a little over 58%. Had you bothered to look at my post season spread sheet, you would have ween that I went 16-8 which should tell you two things. #1. I am smart enough NOT to wager on every game just because it happens to be on TV. #2. I am damn good at what I do.

I have a spreadsheet started for the 2017 Season. It covers my early plays. I keep it very simple. Every wager on a favorite is to win 100 units. Every wager on a dog is for 100 units to win 100+ units. Here is an example of what you may see if you took the time to look at it.
6/01/2017 01:25 PM 10/7. Air Force @ Navy +15.5 NCAAF -110 Southpoint 110 100. To explain this, you see the date and time I posted this onto my sheet (06/01/2017 01:25 pm), the date of the game (10/7), the team I wagered on (Air Force. I always list the team I am wagering on first) where the game is being played and against who (@ Navy), the line (+15.5), the Vig (-110), the Name of the casino where the wager was placed (Southpoint), the amount I wagered (110 Units), and the amount I can win (100 Units). There are also total wins for the year which are pretty self explanatory. To see the spreadsheet so far, go to:

http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

Now here is how this is going to work. You and all of the other hotshots who think they are better than I am will do the exact same thing. Post a spreadsheet. If you do not, you will be branded a coward and I will continue to call you out every time I get a chance to. Now as far as you thinking that you know more than I do about College Football wagering, put that idea to rest right now. You do not. You do not have near the experience that I have in this game. You do not have near the Information available that I have. You apparently do ot have near the time available to place your wagers that I do. Everyone knows that you either wager early or late into the wagering cycle, but a lot of money can be made in the middle of the cycle, especially on totals.

Ralphie, you seem to be one of the few people in here that can actually have an intelligent conversation about College Football. Do not ruin it by going off on me. I do what I want, when I want, because I CAN. I have the power, finances, and the ability to do so. If I were you I would take advantage of this and try to learn something. That is how I started in the late 60's in Vegas. I watched the very best in action and learned from them. These guys were the best of the best. Much better than anyone or anything (for the computer geeks out here) out here today. I learned by asking a lot of questions and respecting these gentlemen. Even in here, as bad as many of these alleged players are I read every word they spit out because they occasionally say something that I may have overlooked. You are never too old or too good to stop learning.

Dang...how old are you bigdaddy? Or should I start calling you granddaddy?? I'll match wits with you on a spreadsheet...sounds fun.

jt315 · 07-08-17, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by crackerjack

Dang...how old are you bigdaddy? Or should I start calling you granddaddy?? I'll match wits with you on a spreadsheet...sounds fun.

His +10.5 on Wyoming at the Golden Nugget on 6/30 is a fairy tale, as are his season wins totals dated 6/1 from the Westgate.

None of the above were available on those dates from the Vegas fraud .

The season win totals labeled 6/1 at Westgate should be Southpoint according to the fraud except the Southpoint totals weren't available til 6/2.

jt315 · 07-10-17, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Ralphie, if you and the others in here who think they know what they are talking about would have taken the time to look at my last years spreadsheet, you have seen that I hit at a little over 58%. Had you bothered to look at my post season spread sheet, you would have ween that I went 16-8 which should tell you two things. #1. I am smart enough NOT to wager on every game just because it happens to be on TV. #2. I am damn good at what I do.

I have a spreadsheet started for the 2017 Season. It covers my early plays. I keep it very simple. Every wager on a favorite is to win 100 units. Every wager on a dog is for 100 units to win 100+ units. Here is an example of what you may see if you took the time to look at it.
6/01/2017 01:25 PM 10/7. Air Force @ Navy +15.5 NCAAF -110 Southpoint 110 100. To explain this, you see the date and time I posted this onto my sheet (06/01/2017 01:25 pm), the date of the game (10/7), the team I wagered on (Air Force. I always list the team I am wagering on first) where the game is being played and against who (@ Navy), the line (+15.5), the Vig (-110), the Name of the casino where the wager was placed (Southpoint), the amount I wagered (110 Units), and the amount I can win (100 Units). There are also total wins for the year which are pretty self explanatory. To see the spreadsheet so far, go to:

http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

Now here is how this is going to work. You and all of the other hotshots who think they are better than I am will do the exact same thing. Post a spreadsheet. If you do not, you will be branded a coward and I will continue to call you out every time I get a chance to. Now as far as you thinking that you know more than I do about College Football wagering, put that idea to rest right now. You do not. You do not have near the experience that I have in this game. You do not have near the Information available that I have. You apparently do ot have near the time available to place your wagers that I do. Everyone knows that you either wager early or late into the wagering cycle, but a lot of money can be made in the middle of the cycle, especially on totals.

Ralphie, you seem to be one of the few people in here that can actually have an intelligent conversation about College Football. Do not ruin it by going off on me. I do what I want, when I want, because I CAN. I have the power, finances, and the ability to do so. If I were you I would take advantage of this and try to learn something. That is how I started in the late 60's in Vegas. I watched the very best in action and learned from them. These guys were the best of the best. Much better than anyone or anything (for the computer geeks out here) out here today. I learned by asking a lot of questions and respecting these gentlemen. Even in here, as bad as many of these alleged players are I read every word they spit out because they occasionally say something that I may have overlooked. You are never too old or too good to stop learning.

All of this hot air and a phony spreadsheet to go with it.